The Trump-Netanyahu “Deal of the Century”

Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker — Episode Summary

Episode Title: The Trump-Netanyahu “Deal of the Century”
Date: January 30, 2020
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Robin Wright (Contributing Writer, The New Yorker)

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Overview

This episode centers on the Trump administration’s unveiling of its Middle East peace plan, dubbed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the "Deal of the Century." Host Dorothy Wickenden and guest Robin Wright critically dissect the plan’s contents, motives, and implications for Israeli and Palestinian futures and democracy in both the US and Israel. The discussion also touches upon shifting alliances in the Arab world and the political circumstances surrounding both Trump and Netanyahu.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Summary of the Trump Peace Plan

• Plan Details:
  Wright summarizes the comprehensive “Deal of the Century” (02:38–05:51), outlining that while it technically calls for a two-state solution, it heavily favors Israeli interests and offers the Palestinians a “proto state” with many limitations.

  • Israel gains right to annex settlements and maintain control over about 30% of the West Bank, particularly the Jordan Valley
  • Jerusalem is recognized as the undivided capital of Israel, while Palestinians are offered a capital area "carved out of suburbs" in East Jerusalem
  • An underground tunnel would connect the physically separated Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank
  • Palestinians would gain access to a new airport/port on an artificial island off Gaza, but Israel retains ultimate security control
  • Sensitive religious sites (Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif) would be under Israeli security with Jordanian guardianship
  • A $30 billion economic plan promises investments for Palestinians, though funding details are vague
  • The plan spans over four years, requiring Palestinians to demilitarize and fulfill various demands before negotiations begin

  Quote:

  "[The plan] is very lopsided, there's no question about that. It does give the Palestinians a state...But there are many shortcomings from the Palestinian perspective. Israel gets much of what it wants in terms of land."
  — Robin Wright (03:01)

2. Historical Context & Palestinian Leadership

• Wickenden brings up Bret Stephens's argument that previous Arab and Palestinian leaders have rejected better offers. Wright acknowledges repeated miscalculations by Palestinian and Arab leaders, leading to lost opportunities (05:51–08:13).

  • References include the 1947 UN Partition Plan, the post-1967 war context, and Arafat’s rejection of the 2000 Clinton peace proposal.
  • Arab political realities and the lack of a unified front have complicated peace efforts.

  Quote:

  "There's no question that the Palestinian leadership in its many different factions have missed many opportunities to make peace with Israel...The Arab world in general has miscalculated over and over at a cost to the Palestinian people."
  — Robin Wright (06:40)

3. Arab World, Geopolitics & Kushner’s Approach

• The plan was developed without Palestinian participation and the US administration made its pro-Israel stance immediately clear (08:44–11:17). Some Arab countries sent ambassadors to the White House unveiling, Saudi Arabia issued public support, but heavy-hitters like Egypt and Jordan were absent.

  • The broader Arab League’s ambiguous support is pending a formal meeting.
  • The region desires peace, but specifics of the plan may reduce support, especially among the region's frustrated young populations.

  Quote:

  "We'll see if the Arab world supports this plan...The idea of peace is one that I think the whole region embraces. Finally, whether they embrace these specific terms is yet to be determined."
  — Robin Wright (10:06)

4. Domestic Politics: Timing, Elections, and Indictments

• Both leaders are under political clouds: Trump during his impeachment trial and Netanyahu, the first Israeli prime minister indicted on criminal charges, during another round of elections (11:17–12:44).

  • The timing of the peace plan announcement appears influenced by electoral considerations in both countries.
  • Wright doubts the peace plan will meaningfully shift election outcomes.

  Quote:

  "The United States President Trump has been very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu clearly has helped him in multiple ways...Will it help either man in terms of reelection? ...I'm not sure that the peace plan is going to have any impact on whether President Trump is reelected."
  — Robin Wright (11:45)

5. US Domestic Reaction – Democratic Criticism

• Democratic senators formally objected to the timing of the plan, suggesting it interfered with Israeli elections and was tied to Netanyahu’s legal troubles (12:44–14:54).

  • The plan is criticized for its lack of energy, immediacy, and feasibility; it demands the Palestinians demilitarize and make huge concessions up front.
  • There are no international guarantees, enforcement mechanisms, or clear provisions for border incidents.

  Quote:

  "There doesn't seem to be any energy behind the peace plan. There's no formal format for this all to play out. This is basically saying the Palestinians like it or lump it."
  — Robin Wright (13:35)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Netanyahu’s Praise:

  "You have been the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House."
  — Benjamin Netanyahu, quoted by Dorothy Wickenden (01:56)

• The “Slap of the Century”:

  "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas calls it the slap of the century and he's refused to even consider it."
  — Dorothy Wickenden (02:38)

• On Arab Politics:

  "Who would have thought even 10 years ago that Israel and Saudi Arabia might have common cause on Iran, notably."
  — Robin Wright (07:41)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:15] – Introduction to episode, context for plan's unveiling
• [02:38] – Breakdown of the Trump plan's main provisions (Robin Wright)
• [05:51] – Discussion of Palestinian leadership’s historic decisions and missed peace opportunities
• [08:44] – Arab world’s response, regional implications
• [11:17] – Political context in US and Israel; intersection with elections and indictments
• [12:44] – Domestic (US) reaction to the plan's timing and Democratic criticisms
• [14:54] – Closing remarks and summary

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Tone and Impressions

The conversation is analytical and sober, balancing historical context with a clear-eyed view of present realities. Robin Wright’s expertise is evident in her measured detailing of both sides’ failings and the complexities on the ground. The tone is critical of the plan’s viability and skeptical about its impact beyond serving political optics for Trump and Netanyahu.

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Contributors:

• Dorothy Wickenden — Executive Editor, The New Yorker; host
• Robin Wright — Contributing Writer, The New Yorker; Middle East expert

Summary compiled for listeners seeking a comprehensive understanding of the episode’s nuanced take on the Trump administration's Middle East peace initiative and its political, historical, and regional ramifications.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and guests about Politics. It's Thursday, January 30th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. On Tuesday, at a ceremony at the White House with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump announced the components of the administration's Middle east peace plan. The unveiling occurred in the midst of the Senate trial of Trump and on the day that Netanyahu was indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases. The plan strongly favors Israeli interests and Netanyahu called it the deal of the century.

[Tristan Redman]

It's a great plan for Israel. It's a great plan for peace. Frankly, Mr. President, given all that you have already done for Israel, I'm not surprised. You have been the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robin Bright, a New Yorker contributing writer, joins me to discuss the Trump plan to solve the seven decades long Israeli Palestinian conflict and the challenges Netanyahu and Trump pose to the future of democracy in the two countries. Robyn, welcome.

[Robin Wright]

Great to be with you, Dorothy.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Could you tell us what the Trump plan proposes for those listeners who have not been paying close attention. It does call for a two state solution, but it seems to be in name only paper. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas calls it the slap of the century and he's refused to even consider it.

[Robin Wright]

Yes, well, there's a president of the Middle East Institute called it the giveaway of the century. It is very lopsided, there's no question about that. It does give the Palestinians a state, which was in many ways in doubt because of the growing spread of Israel through the west bank and whether there was a, a viable solution. But there are many shortcomings from the Palestinian perspective. Israel gets much of what it wants in terms of land. It has the right to annex all its settlements. There's basically a land swap that the Palestinians will get some desert territory in the Negev and the Israelis will get to keep the settlements. And 30% of the occupied west bank in the Jordan Valley will be under Israeli control. There are a number of other controversial issues. The status of Jerusalem, for example. Israel has long wanted it as its undivided capital and the plan indeed gives it that right. The Palestinians get a capital carved out of suburbs, basically of East Jerusalem. It does not have a claim to part of Jerusalem as Palestinians have long wanted. The two Palestinian territories, which are far apart, the west bank and Gaza, will be connected through an underground tunnel to be built. The Palestinians will get an airport and port on a newly created artificial island off Gaza. In terms of the sensitive religious properties, Israel will still control the Temple Mount, or as the Arabs call it, the Haram Al Sharif, which is the third holiest site in Islam. It will be under Jordanian guardianship. But security for all of these areas will ultimately be under Israeli control. The Palestinians are really left with largely a proto state that may not be physically viable. So there are many other parts of it, but it's a very detailed plan, 50 pages plus a 30 page economic plan to help the Palestinians with $30 billion of investment. It's unclear where that comes from. But the most curious thing about the plan is that it calls for it all to play out over four years and that the Palestinians really have to meet all the demands, demilitarizing, creating new government. So all of this plays out over four years. They have to do it all before they can even sit down with the Israelis to work on the final terms.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

I wonder though, what you think about the argument which appeared in today's Times by the conservative columnist Bret Stephens, who recalls that historically Arab leaders have rejected peace Plans that would have been far more beneficial to the Palestinians. So he goes back and he cites the 1947 UN Partition Plan, which would have resulted in a much larger Palestinian state. Jordan's refusal in 67 not to attack Israel, which resulted in the end of Jordanian rule in the west bank. And then Yasser Arafat's refusal of Israel's offer of a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem, which led to the start of the second intifada. And the situation we're in now. Do you agree with him that the Palestinian people have been particularly poorly served by their leaders?

[Robin Wright]

There's no question that the Palestinian leadership in its many different factions have missed many opportunities to make peace with Israel. The Arab world in general has miscalculated over and over and over at a cost to the Palestinian people and stability in the region. How to make peace, how to end 72 years of conflict. The issue has always been what is viable, what is acceptable. And remember, Arab politics have changed enormously. Who would have thought even 10 years ago that Israel and Saudi Arabia might have common cause on Iran, notably. But in the past, the Arab world has taken a very tough position on peace. And one of the reasons Yasser Arafat did not accept the Clinton peace plan in 2000 was because the administration would not allow him to get support on some of the controversial issues, like Jerusalem, from the Arab leaders. It was take it or leave it. And Arafat thought he couldn't do that on behalf of the entire Arab world, particularly on the status of Jerusalem, and so he backed out. Classic mistake historically. But this is again where you have a divisive Arab world that complicates the prospects of peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

So let's go back to your point about the Saudis. It is extraordinary to think where we are right now. The Trump plan was led by his son in law, Jared Kushner, who did not include the Palestinians in the talks. And the administration's made it clear from the start you know where it stood. Announcing its support for moving the Capitol to Jerusalem, closing the PLO's diplomatic mission in Washington cutting off funding to the Palestinian territories. And the Saudis issued a statement stating their support for the plan. And several other Arab countries sent their ambassadors to the White House for the unveiling. So tell us why it is in their interest to do so and what Kushner's idea is here.

[Robin Wright]

Well, we'll see if the Arab world supports this plan. There were only three ambassadors at the unveiling of it on Tuesday, the ambassadors of Bahrain and Oman and the United Arab Emirates. It did not include representatives of the major powers in the region, notably countries like Egypt and Jordan. The general reaction in the Arab world is that they support the idea of peace. There have been countries that have not come out, however, and said, we support this peace plan. The Arab league, which includes 22 Arab countries, will meet this weekend to discuss what to do next. And it will happen at the same time that the Israeli cabinet is supposed to move on annexation of the west bank settlements and the atmospherics. The next step could well lead to the kind of erosion for the support of this plan. There's an awful lot at stake, and an awful lot can happen in four years. I think the biggest concern is if this was something that could be done much faster. It was in everybody's interest. The rule of thumb in the Middle east is that diplomacy is often overtaken by events on the ground. And you have a young population that feels deeply frustrated and has made clear its opposition to Israeli control over their areas in intifadas and in joining militant groups that have continued to fire on Israel and Israeli settlements. The idea of peace is one that I think the whole region embraces. Finally, whether they embrace these specific terms is yet to be determined.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So Trump faces reelection in November. As we all know, Netanyahu, the first Israeli prime minister ever to face formal criminal charges, faces elections in March, the third within a year. How are the accusations against these two leaders influencing the spectacle we saw on stage on Tuesday?

[Robin Wright]

I'm not sure that the issue of impeachment in Washington or the three charges of corruption facing Prime Minister Netanyahu are defining this, but it's very clear that the elections in both countries were very influential in the timing. The United States President Trump has been very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu clearly has helped him in multiple ways, whether it was moving the embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Jerusalem as the eternal Israeli capital. These are all things that Netanyahu has campaigned on. And he can now campaign yet again on his close relationship with the United States and now getting a peace plan that heavily favors Israel. Will it help either man in terms of reelection? It's hard to tell with Israel where the politics are deeply divided. And I'm not sure that the peace plan is going to have any impact on whether President Trump is reelected.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

What did you think of the letter sent by a dozen Democratic senators to Trump on Tuesday objecting to the timing of the proposal, you know, saying it coincided with Netanyahu's indictment and that it raises disturbing questions about his intention to intervene in the Israeli election process?

[Robin Wright]

Well, this is not the first time that Democrats on the Hill have questioned the timing or actions or motive of what President Trump does. It's very interesting that this plan plays out over four years, which would be yet another presidential term, that it's vague enough that it involves no imminent steps. It doesn't move the peace process forward potentially for another whole presidential term. There are so many things that can happen between now and then. There doesn't seem to be any energy behind the peace plan. There's no formal format for this all to play out. This is basically saying the Palestinians like it or lump it. You've got to demilitarize. You've got to figure out how to deal with your own refugees. You're going to lose large territory, large sections of territory. You're going to lose control of your own security. Remember, Palestinians feel very vulnerable, too, and they have to give up all their weapons while Israel doesn't. So there aren't international monitors, for example, that are going in to try to make sure that there aren't incidents along the new borders. And I think that's the big hole in this. There's a sense that this is largely for appearance, for politics, and that there isn't much heart or commitment to getting something done quickly. After all, in 1993, when Arafat made peace with Rabin and there was a roadmap created and that timetable has eroded over and over and over again because of faults by both sides. And it doesn't give me much hope that this peace plan, with four years ahead, is going to be any more successful.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Thank you so much, Robin.

[Robin Wright]

Great to be with you, Dorothy.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robin Wright is a contributing writer at the New Yorker and the author of several books about the Middle east, including the Last Great Turmoil and Transformation in Iran. This has been the political scene. You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts by searching for the New Yorker in your podcast app and find more political analysis and commentary on newyorker.com feel free to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts Our theme music is by Russell Gillespie. This program was produced by Alex Barron and Kylie Warner. For newyorker.com I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

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[Tristan Redman]

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