The Political Scene | The New Yorker Episode: The Washington Roundtable on the Iran War Date: March 4, 2026

Episode Overview

The New Yorker's Evan Osnos, Susan B. Glasser, and Jane Mayer convene for an urgent roundtable to analyze the sudden outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Reflecting on the echoes of the Iraq war, the hosts explore the shifting rationales behind this war of choice, the opaque decision-making from President Trump’s administration, and the likely political, social, and human costs both abroad and at home. The discussion is grounded in history, journalistic reporting, and a clear-eyed skepticism of the leadership’s aims and competence.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. How Did We Get Here? The Return of "Wars of Choice"

• Opening reflection [00:25-03:16]:
  • Evan Osnos draws parallels between the new Iran war and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The team reckons with how Trump—who campaigned on avoiding such interventions—has found himself rapidly escalating another Middle East conflict.
  • Notable quote: "Regime change, he said, is a proven absolute failure ... Well, here we are." (A, 00:25)
• Historical trauma (PTSD) of Iraq:
  • Jane Mayer and Susan Glasser recall their reporting roots and the lasting scars of Iraq, linking a throughline from the political backlash to that war to current leaders like Trump and Vance, who once decried such interventions (B, 01:33; C, 02:35).

2. Unclear Rationales & Disoriented Messaging

• The revolving door of explanations [04:11-05:23]:
  • Susan chronicles the administration’s shifting war aims: regime change, ballistic missiles, the nuclear program, and decades-old grievances, none sticking for long.
    • Quote: "None of these explanations have lasted more than about five minutes." (A, 05:09)
• Speculating Trump's true motivations:
  • Jane references both classic war theory and reporting on Trump's personal animus toward Iran, suggesting motives may include personal vendettas, media distraction, or showmanship (C, 05:23-07:26).
    • Quote: "I don't think we have yet heard a clear explanation of what this war is about, what they intend to achieve ..." (C, 05:23)

3. Confusion and Aggression in Management

• Pete Hegseth's combative press briefing [08:12-10:02]:
  • Hegseth deflects questions about the war's aims and timeline, emphasizing violent execution over strategic clarity.
    • Quote (Hegseth): "We have plans, we have generals, we have chairmans..." (D, 08:12)
  • Jane describes Hegseth’s defensiveness and anti-Muslim statements in his past, underscoring the ideological filter through which he and others approach this conflict (C, 09:01).
• Empty rhetoric and lack of coordination:
  • Susan: "They can't coordinate with each other. Marco Rubio is saying one thing. Donald Trump is saying one thing. Pete Hegseth is saying one thing." (B, 10:02)

4. America’s War Strategy: “No Boots, No Quagmire”?

• Differences from Iraq and Bush era [11:54-14:16]:
  • The team discusses whether Trump's avoidance of ground troops will spare the U.S. another long, grinding war—or if it’s a dangerous illusion.
    • Evan: "Nobody is shedding a tear here for the Supreme Leader ... So then you have to say, okay, what is the best case scenario here?" (A, 11:54)
  • Best case vs. reality: Drawing on China’s transformation as an unlikely positive parallel, Osnos points to the vast complexities of Iranian society.

5. Regime Change: Hope Versus History

• Historical failures of regime change [14:16-17:40]:
  • Susan and Jane analyze previous U.S. efforts at regime change, including Iran 1953 and Venezuela, noting such interventions rarely yield democracy.
  • Jane: "We've actually tried regime change in a country as big as Iran ... in 1953 ... And the result was what we see." (C, 16:14)
  • Susan: "One fear... is rather than triggering small-d democracy and a positive evolution ... it will inspire ... more of a crackdown, a harder line, extremists in control." (B, 14:16)

6. Domestic Political Fallout and Historical Departure

• Ignoring the Constitution & Bypassing Public Consent [22:04-25:46]:
  • There was no build-up, public explanation, or Congressional authorization before the attack, marking a break with past U.S. war starts (C, 22:15; B, 23:10).
  • The so-called “negotiations” were conducted by Trump confidants—not diplomats—suggesting performance over substance (A, 26:09).
• Public skepticism and divided politics [26:43-28:39]:
  • Early national polls reveal most Americans oppose the war, including many Republicans.
  • Trump's own base fractures as figures like Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson accuse him of war for Israel, not for America (C, 29:15).
• J.D. Vance’s awkward position:
  • Vance, previously a leading anti-interventionist, is sidelined from decisions, undercutting MAGA’s “no new wars” branding (B, 31:19).
  • Observation: "It’s something to watch the Vice President squirm like this. I mean, it cuts really right at the heart of who J.D. vance has been..."

7. Costs of War—Material and Human

• Staggering financial costs [36:49-37:53]:
  • More than $600 million to deploy forces; $779 million spent in the first 24 hours.
  • The U.S. is burning through expensive defensive munitions against cheap Iranian drones—a “Ferrari vs. e-bike” scenario.
• Unintended consequences—global and personal:
  • Increased vulnerability to energy shocks in both U.S. and Europe, strains on U.S. alliances, and long-term depletion of military and diplomatic capacity.
  • Susan: "We are thrust into a war like this ... where frankly, the explanation for why we are expending blood and treasure is, in the case of Iraq, turned out to be a complete and total lie. And in this case, they haven't even bothered to come up with a coherent explanation." (A, 41:39)
  • Jane: "And they've been so callous in the way they've described the loss of life, American life, other life in this." (C, 42:57)

8. The Human Toll and the Cycle of Distrust

• The chasm between leaders and those at risk: Referencing Mark Shields’s classic point about political elites' distance from those who fight and die (A, 41:39-42:57).
• Empathy for Iranians and U.S. troops:
  • The hosts reflect on the courage of Iranian protesters and the fate of American service members sent to war without clarity or cause (B, 43:27; C, 44:48).
  • Evan, quoting Rick Atkinson: “In the end, war is about young people dying and sobbing mothers. And that is an awfully bracing way to remember what we have just encountered and embarked on.” (A, 45:16)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the return of regime change:
  • "How did we come from 2003 to what was seen as an almost historical mistake, to repeating it all over again?" – Susan Glasser [01:33]
• On chaotic messaging:
  • "None of these explanations have lasted more than about five minutes." – Evan Osnos [05:09]
• On motivation:
  • "Trump has a bit of a fixation about Iran because he feels that Iran has personally tried to assassinate him." – Jane Mayer [05:23]
• On insecure leadership:
  • "He literally plays Hegseth as this sort of amped up, shouting maniac ... he's playing for Donald Trump's attention. He has no idea what he's saying. It's all empty." – Susan Glasser [10:02]
• On cost of war:
  • "In the first 24 hours, it cost $779 million. Those F15s that were shot down accidentally by Kuwait, each one of them costs $90 million." – Jane Mayer [37:16]
• On the human divide:
  • "Those in power are totally divorced from those at peril. ... over and over again, we are thrust into a war like this..." – Evan Osnos (recalling Mark Shields) [41:39]

Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |---------|----------------------------------------------------| | 00:25 | Framing the Iran war in the context of Iraq | | 01:33 | How the Iraq war shaped Trump and Vance | | 04:11 | Confusion over the war’s rationale | | 05:23 | Possible motives for Trump’s decisions | | 08:12 | Pete Hegseth's press conference—no clear answers | | 11:54 | Comparing Bush era and Trump era war politics | | 14:16 | The realities and false promises of regime change | | 22:15 | Lack of public preparation & constitutional process| | 26:43 | Domestic polling—little public support | | 29:15 | Trump’s base fractures over the war | | 31:19 | J.D. Vance's marginalization and MAGA hypocrisy | | 36:49 | The huge, immediate costs of war | | 41:39 | Mark Shields on the generational/civic divide | | 45:16 | Rick Atkinson on the ultimate cost of war |

Tone

The conversation is somber, critical, and animated by a deep sense of historical awareness and frustration. The hosts frequently reference their own professional and personal experiences covering past conflicts, using both biting humor and grave warnings to convey the seriousness of the moment.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a call to remember the human scale and personal consequences of war, as the U.S. once again embarks on an open-ended military endeavor with ill-defined goals and uncertain prospects. The hosts pledge continued critical coverage—and hope for better news in the episodes to come.