Podcast Summary: "Trump and Putin Face Off Over Syria"

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Robin Wright
Date: April 13, 2018
Duration: ~16 minutes of content

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode focuses on the escalating conflict in Syria as President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backed by Russia and Iran, consolidates control and faces allegations of repeated chemical weapons attacks. Dorothy Wickenden and Robin Wright discuss the United States' response under President Trump, the intensifying U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Iran tensions, and the international ramifications, including potential impacts on negotiations with North Korea.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Status of the War in Syria

• Humanitarian Catastrophe:
  • The Syrian conflict has led to over 500,000 deaths and displaced 13 million people—over half the population.
    • "More than a quarter of the Syrian population has left the country altogether and is being absorbed at a tremendous cost by neighboring countries..." (Robin Wright, 03:26)
• Assad’s Control:
  • Assad has reasserted control over most of Syria, largely using devastating means including alleged chemical attacks to retake opposition areas.

2. Recent Chemical Weapons Attack and U.S. Response

• Douma Chemical Attack:
  • In Douma, hundreds suffered in a suspected sarin or chlorine attack blamed on Assad's forces.
• International Outrage:
  • U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley directly blamed Russia and Iran:
    • "Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted, but it stands with the Assad regime..." (Nikki Haley, 01:56)
• White House Dilemma:
  • Trump threatened a speedy, forceful response, including tweets directed at Russia. Yet hesitation appeared within his administration regarding escalation risks.
    • "The week saw some real moments of high drama, with the president tweeting that the US would be acting within 24 or 48 hours..." (Robin Wright, 05:20)
    • Tension existed about not hitting Russian or Iranian assets and the risk of a U.S.-Russia military confrontation.

3. The Broken ‘Red Line’ from 2013

• Obama’s Approach vs. Trump’s:
  • Obama pursued removal of Syria’s chemical weapons with Russia after seeking and not receiving Congressional approval for force.
  • Chemical weapons were supposedly removed, but Syria continued attacks, demonstrating the limits of that accord.
    • "The fact is that Assad lied...or he hid some chemical weapons that he didn't hand over to the international monitors." (Robin Wright, 08:31)
• Policy Legacy:
  • Trump criticized Obama for inaction, yet struggles with similar constraints and Russia’s obstruction.

4. Russia and Iran’s Roles

• Russia as Kingmaker:
  • Russia’s support is pivotal. The U.S. and allies face a new ‘Cold War’ situation which could escalate further.
    • "There is this growing tension. And Syria represents where you're seeing what's becoming a new Cold War almost evolving into what could become a hotter war." (Robin Wright, 10:30)
• Iran's Entrenchment:
  • Iran, via Hezbollah and other militias, has established deep military positions in Syria, raising Israeli fears and prompting Israeli airstrikes.
    • "So Israel has launched kind of a quiet war, little noticed by the outside world. Over 100 airstrikes in recent years..." (Robin Wright, 13:30)

5. Evolving U.S. Policy and Internal Dynamics

• Hawkish Turn:
  • With the appointments of John Bolton as National Security Adviser and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, the U.S. foreign policy approach is shifting toward confrontation.
    • "You have both Bolton and Pompeo who have called for regime change in Iran and have suggested regime change in North Korea..." (Robin Wright, 14:53)
• Domestic Complications:
  • U.S.-Russia confrontation is uniquely complicated by Trump’s internal weaknesses, especially the ongoing Mueller investigation.

6. Syria, North Korea, and Global Signals

• Broader Implications:
  • U.S. military action in Syria, or lack thereof, sends messages not only to Assad but also to Kim Jong Un and others about the seriousness of U.S. threats.
    • "This is an important message just about how far his administration is willing to go to achieve its goals." (Robin Wright, 15:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Syria’s Human Toll:
  • "Add those injuries and displacements, the refugees. More than a quarter of the Syrian population has left the country..." (Robin Wright, 03:26)
• On Russia’s Agency:
  • "Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted, but it stands with the Assad regime and supports without any hesitation." (Nikki Haley, 01:56)
• On Potential Escalation:
  • "Syria represents where you're seeing what's becoming a new Cold War almost evolving into what could become a hotter war." (Robin Wright, 10:30)
• On the Impact of U.S. Action in Syria:
  • "If President Trump opts to use military force, it signals to Kim Jong Un...that the US is willing to use military might if diplomacy doesn't get what he wants." (Robin Wright, 15:39)

Key Segment Timestamps

• 01:16 – Show intro and summary of Assad’s offensive, Security Council emergency, and Haley’s statement.
• 03:01 – Robin Wright joins; overview of conflict impact and Assad’s consolidation.
• 04:45 – Recap of previous U.S. military responses and current admin debate on new strikes.
• 08:04 – Discussion of Russia’s involvement and failure of the 2013 chemical disarmament deal.
• 09:59 – Discussion on Putin’s responsibility and Western unity.
• 10:56 – Trump’s unprecedented public critique of Putin; the Middle East’s shifting dynamics.
• 12:23 – Bolton’s appointment and his views on Iran; implications for U.S. strategy.
• 13:19 – Israel’s security concerns, Iranian entrenchment, and Israeli strikes.
• 14:27 – Pompeo’s confirmation hearing and approach to diplomacy vs. war.
• 15:23 – Global ripple effects: how Syria influences North Korea talks.

Conclusion

The episode offers a nuanced analysis of the high-stakes international crisis centered on Syria, emphasizing the human cost, the risky interplay between Washington, Moscow, and Tehran, and revealing how recent events carry direct implications for U.S. foreign policy elsewhere. With U.S. leadership increasingly hawkish, the risk of broader escalation looms—both in the Middle East and on the global stage.