Trump and Putin Face Off Over Syria

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Trump and Putin Face Off Over Syria"

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Robin Wright
Date: April 13, 2018
Duration: ~16 minutes of content

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Main Theme and Purpose

This episode focuses on the escalating conflict in Syria as President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backed by Russia and Iran, consolidates control and faces allegations of repeated chemical weapons attacks. Dorothy Wickenden and Robin Wright discuss the United States' response under President Trump, the intensifying U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Iran tensions, and the international ramifications, including potential impacts on negotiations with North Korea.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Status of the War in Syria

• Humanitarian Catastrophe:
  • The Syrian conflict has led to over 500,000 deaths and displaced 13 million people—over half the population.
    • "More than a quarter of the Syrian population has left the country altogether and is being absorbed at a tremendous cost by neighboring countries..." (Robin Wright, 03:26)
• Assad’s Control:
  • Assad has reasserted control over most of Syria, largely using devastating means including alleged chemical attacks to retake opposition areas.

2. Recent Chemical Weapons Attack and U.S. Response

• Douma Chemical Attack:
  • In Douma, hundreds suffered in a suspected sarin or chlorine attack blamed on Assad's forces.
• International Outrage:
  • U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley directly blamed Russia and Iran:
    • "Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted, but it stands with the Assad regime..." (Nikki Haley, 01:56)
• White House Dilemma:
  • Trump threatened a speedy, forceful response, including tweets directed at Russia. Yet hesitation appeared within his administration regarding escalation risks.
    • "The week saw some real moments of high drama, with the president tweeting that the US would be acting within 24 or 48 hours..." (Robin Wright, 05:20)
    • Tension existed about not hitting Russian or Iranian assets and the risk of a U.S.-Russia military confrontation.

3. The Broken ‘Red Line’ from 2013

• Obama’s Approach vs. Trump’s:
  • Obama pursued removal of Syria’s chemical weapons with Russia after seeking and not receiving Congressional approval for force.
  • Chemical weapons were supposedly removed, but Syria continued attacks, demonstrating the limits of that accord.
    • "The fact is that Assad lied...or he hid some chemical weapons that he didn't hand over to the international monitors." (Robin Wright, 08:31)
• Policy Legacy:
  • Trump criticized Obama for inaction, yet struggles with similar constraints and Russia’s obstruction.

4. Russia and Iran’s Roles

• Russia as Kingmaker:
  • Russia’s support is pivotal. The U.S. and allies face a new ‘Cold War’ situation which could escalate further.
    • "There is this growing tension. And Syria represents where you're seeing what's becoming a new Cold War almost evolving into what could become a hotter war." (Robin Wright, 10:30)
• Iran's Entrenchment:
  • Iran, via Hezbollah and other militias, has established deep military positions in Syria, raising Israeli fears and prompting Israeli airstrikes.
    • "So Israel has launched kind of a quiet war, little noticed by the outside world. Over 100 airstrikes in recent years..." (Robin Wright, 13:30)

5. Evolving U.S. Policy and Internal Dynamics

• Hawkish Turn:
  • With the appointments of John Bolton as National Security Adviser and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, the U.S. foreign policy approach is shifting toward confrontation.
    • "You have both Bolton and Pompeo who have called for regime change in Iran and have suggested regime change in North Korea..." (Robin Wright, 14:53)
• Domestic Complications:
  • U.S.-Russia confrontation is uniquely complicated by Trump’s internal weaknesses, especially the ongoing Mueller investigation.

6. Syria, North Korea, and Global Signals

• Broader Implications:
  • U.S. military action in Syria, or lack thereof, sends messages not only to Assad but also to Kim Jong Un and others about the seriousness of U.S. threats.
    • "This is an important message just about how far his administration is willing to go to achieve its goals." (Robin Wright, 15:39)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Syria’s Human Toll:
  • "Add those injuries and displacements, the refugees. More than a quarter of the Syrian population has left the country..." (Robin Wright, 03:26)
• On Russia’s Agency:
  • "Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted, but it stands with the Assad regime and supports without any hesitation." (Nikki Haley, 01:56)
• On Potential Escalation:
  • "Syria represents where you're seeing what's becoming a new Cold War almost evolving into what could become a hotter war." (Robin Wright, 10:30)
• On the Impact of U.S. Action in Syria:
  • "If President Trump opts to use military force, it signals to Kim Jong Un...that the US is willing to use military might if diplomacy doesn't get what he wants." (Robin Wright, 15:39)

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Key Segment Timestamps

• 01:16 – Show intro and summary of Assad’s offensive, Security Council emergency, and Haley’s statement.
• 03:01 – Robin Wright joins; overview of conflict impact and Assad’s consolidation.
• 04:45 – Recap of previous U.S. military responses and current admin debate on new strikes.
• 08:04 – Discussion of Russia’s involvement and failure of the 2013 chemical disarmament deal.
• 09:59 – Discussion on Putin’s responsibility and Western unity.
• 10:56 – Trump’s unprecedented public critique of Putin; the Middle East’s shifting dynamics.
• 12:23 – Bolton’s appointment and his views on Iran; implications for U.S. strategy.
• 13:19 – Israel’s security concerns, Iranian entrenchment, and Israeli strikes.
• 14:27 – Pompeo’s confirmation hearing and approach to diplomacy vs. war.
• 15:23 – Global ripple effects: how Syria influences North Korea talks.

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Conclusion

The episode offers a nuanced analysis of the high-stakes international crisis centered on Syria, emphasizing the human cost, the risky interplay between Washington, Moscow, and Tehran, and revealing how recent events carry direct implications for U.S. foreign policy elsewhere. With U.S. leadership increasingly hawkish, the risk of broader escalation looms—both in the Middle East and on the global stage.

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Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Friday, April 13th. Dorothy I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. Seven years into the war in Syria, President Bashar Al Assad is capturing the last rebel strongholds. Part of this offensive took place on Saturday in Douma, a suburb of Damascus, where civilians suffered hundreds of casualties in a suspected chemical weapons attack by the government. At an emergency Security Council meeting at the un, Nikki Haley, the American ambassador, blamed Russia for much of the humanitarian crisis.

[Nikki Haley]

We must not overlook Russia and Iran's roles in enabling the Assad regime's murderous destruction. Russia and Iran have military advisers at Assad's airfields and operations centers. Russian officials are on the ground helping direct the regime's starve and surrender campaign. And Iranian allied forces do much of the dirty work. When the Syrian military pummels civilians, they rely on the military hardware given by Russia. Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted, but it stands with the Assad regime and supports without any hesitation.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

This morning, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov claimed that the evident chemical weapons attack was staged with assistance from an unnamed Foreign Secret Service. Robyn Wright joins me to discuss the showdown over Syria and how it will shape the politics in the region. Robin, welcome.

[Robin Wright]

Great to be with you as always.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Dorothy, let's begin with where the war stands. Right now. It has claimed about half a million lives and displaced 13 million people. Assad's regime is perpetrating the worst war crimes in a Jewish country generation. And because of that, the war appears to be essentially over. Can you give us just a very quick overview?

[Robin Wright]

Sure. And remember, when you talk about that 13 million people, that's more than half of the Syrian population, so that you have extraordinary number of deaths and then add those injuries and displacements, the refugees. More than a quarter of the Syrian population has left the country altogether and is being absorbed at a tremendous cost by neighboring countries and threatening, threatening to destabilize or challenge those countries economically as well. But when it comes to the war, the Syrian regime over the past year has knitted together different patches of territory across the country. So it now controls the vast majority of space on the ground, including all of the major cities. In effect, Assad now has re exerted his control over the majority of Syria. But to reclaim these last areas, he has apparently been willing to use chemical weapons in violation of every international law to terrorize civilians on the ground and force rebels who fought against extraordinary odds to surrender and move to other parts, to engage in some kind of agreement and to move to other parts of Syria or die.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So last April, a year ago, Trump ordered an airstrike on a Syrian airfield after reports that Assad had used nerve agents on civilians. But that had no effect as a deterrent. There have been at least 6 more poisonous gas attacks this year. So Trump's initial response this time was to threaten Russia and Iran and promise immediate action. On Wednesday, he tweeted that Russia should get ready for missiles. But then Secretary Mattis Stepp, walk us through the week so far.

[Robin Wright]

Well, the week has saw some real moments of high drama, with the president tweeting that the US would be acting within 24 or 48 hours and warning the Syrians and the Russians, their sponsors, that there would be smart new weapons used against the regime. So there were great expectations in the early part of the week of an imminent airstrike. But as it gradually unfolded, it appears that there are differences on a number of different levels. One is within the administration itself. What kind of targets do they focus on? As you pointed out last year, they hit an airfield from where Syrian planes had flown to drop chemical weapons. And the message was to say, don't do that again. And they did. The question is, what do you do this time to make sure that Syria really gets the message and that you do something bigger, bolder, with more impact? And so the Secretary Mattis at the Pentagon has been urging that the and its allies, if they strike, to go after things that will not jeopardize a wider war, whether it's places that. Where you might have Russian troops or Iranian troops or Hezbollah troops, that this needs to send a message to the regime itself, which was the agent of the use of chemical weapons. There are other kind of logistical questions. What kind of strike do you engage in? Is this something that you need wider power, whether it's ships or aircraft in the region? In the event that Russia follows through and says, we'll not only counter any airstrikes on Syria, we'll go after the targets from where they came. So suddenly, the issue of chemical weapons almost moves to the back burner in the wider potential of what this conflict or what this retaliation could become.

[Katie Drummond]

I'm Katie Drummond. I'm Wired's global Editorial director. I'm Michael Kalore, Wired's Director of Consumer, Tech and Culture.

[Robin Wright]

And I'm Lauren Good. I'm a senior correspondent at Wired. And our show Uncanny Valley is all about the people, power, and influence of Silicon Valley.

[Katie Drummond]

At Wired, we're constantly reporting on how technology is changing every aspect of our lives. So each week on the show, we get together to talk about one of the biggest stories in tech. Right? So whether we're talking about privacy, AI, social media, or a major tech figure, we will always explain the Silicon Valley forces behind these stories and how they affect you. Make sure you're following Uncanny Valley in your podcast app of choice so you don't miss an episode.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Let's go back for a second. Because Russia's involvement in this crisis has been, of course, pivotal right from the beginning. Trump has repeatedly lambasted Obama for family failing to act in 2013 after the Syrian government crossed the red line by using chemical weapons. That attack resulted in an agreement between Russia and the US that called for Syria's chemical weapons to be destroyed. What went wrong there?

[Robin Wright]

Well, you had a couple of things. Remember that President Obama decided that he needed congressional authorization to use military force. What the US has been doing across the region is still based on that military authorization from Congress that dates back to the 911 attacks 17 years ago. And he wanted to make sure that if we engaged in something that was wider or led to something wider that the Congress was on board. And it was the Republicans at the time that blocked it and said that they would not vote for an authorization. And so President Obama decided not to act. So in the absence of military authorization, the United States worked with Russia to try to convince Assad to agree to give up all of his chemical weapons. And technically, he was supposed to have done just that. And there was international monitors who went in and helped get rid of a stockpile. The fact is that Assad lied. Not to many people's surprise, but he either had his scientists make a new lot, or he hid some chemical weapons that he didn't hand over to the international monitors. And so we're back to where we were. And since 2013, he has repeatedly used chemical weapons again, sometimes in small enough doses that it hasn't produced an international reaction, or it's been hard to prove because they're in areas beyond the range of monitors or international observers to go in.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And chemical weapons are war crimes. And it's just worth emphasizing this again. This morning, I saw that Kenneth Roth, the head of Human Rights Watch, says that Putin really potentially shares criminal responsibility here and that there have to be other measures taken in concert with our allies to put pressure on Putin. And it is interesting that the administration is suddenly welcoming the participation of France and Great Britain in coming up with some kind of unified response.

[Robin Wright]

This will be the third kind of confrontation with the Russians in recent months, the kind of sanctions on Russia for meddling in the US Elections, for meddling in Crimea. There is this growing tension. And Syria represents where you're seeing what's becoming a new Cold War almost evolving into what could become a hotter war.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Well, and all of this is complicated by Trump's legal problems with the Mueller investigation. And this is the first time he's really come out and criticized Putin quite strenuously.

[Robin Wright]

The criticism of Vladimir Putin, the very specificity, the personal side of it, has been quite striking, that he, in tweets, chastised Putin for support of what he called the animal, the bad actor, Bashar Al Assad in Syria. Just a few months ago, even a few weeks ago, the president had indicated a willingness to keep trying to push the reset button with Russia to try to better relationship. And now we're getting into a point where it looks like we will be confronting each other over our rival interests in a country that is really important. I mean, people forget that Syria is the geostrategic center of the Middle East. It borders five countries that are very Important US Allies, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. And whatever happens in Syria spills over onto all of them. We've seen this throughout the Arab Israeli conflict. And the United States has not wanted to get involved in the civil war. But because Syria is so important, suddenly we're back into a war we've tried to stay out of for a very long time.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

As Haley noted, the problem here isn't just Russia, it's Iran too. And John Bolton, the new national security adviser who just started his job on Monday, has called in the past for regime change in Iran. What do you think he's advising Trump on Syria, Russia and Iran.

[Robin Wright]

John Bolton is the loudest voice inside the administration in challenging Iran. There's a lot at stake with Iran. The issue of the 2015 nuclear deal, one of the most important non proliferation treaties in a quarter century, is up for grabs. The United States has been deeply concerned about Iran's intervention in Syria, the role it's played in Iraq, what it's doing in Yemen, the kind of challenges to some of our US Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And Israel is truly alarmed at how Hezbollah and other Iranian backed forces control dozens of Syrian military bases.

[Robin Wright]

Absolutely. There are at least three dozen places, not counting frontline positions, where Iran and its allies have quasi permanent positions, whether it's air bases, military headquarters, nodes for drone control, command and control centers. And Israel has been increasingly concerned that Iran is not there just to back up Bashar Assad in his civil war, but to embed long term. And so that you have a replication of this situation you have in Lebanon, along the Israeli border, now in Syria as well, with the danger that there will be missiles pointed at Israel. So Israel has launched kind of a quiet war, little noticed by the outside world. Over 100 airstrikes in recent years and escalating recently in part because of the fear that this could, that Iran is there even after the civil war ends.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And amid all this chaos came the confirmation hearing yesterday from Mike Pompeo. As Secretary of State, he's another hawk, and not least on Russia, although he did say yesterday that he'd prefer achieving the administration's foreign policy goals with, as he put it, unrelenting diplomacy rather than sending young men and women to war. Assuming he's confirmed, what do you make of that pledge?

[Robin Wright]

Well, I think the dynamics within the national security apparatus change dramatically. You have both Bolton and Pompeo who have called for regime change in Iran and have suggested regime change in North Korea, which you know, means that they're willing to go much further than their predecessors in confronting these governments. If the United States doesn't get everything it wants at the negotiating table, whether it's fixing the Iran deal or getting complete agreement to swiftly denuclearize the Korean.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Peninsula, the other looming issue, as you just noted briefly, is North Korea. How is the Syrian crisis likely to affect the diplomatic talks that are supposed to go forward next month or soon with North Korea?

[Robin Wright]

Well, the interesting part of the Syrian crisis is the timing. And this is a moment, if President Trump opts to use military force, that it sends a message not just to the Syrians and to others in the Middle east, but well beyond that. And it signals to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, that the US Is willing to use military might if diplomacy doesn't get what he wants. And so this is an important message just about how far his administration is willing to go to achieve its goals.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Thanks so much, Robin. We'll have you back soon.

[Robin Wright]

Thanks, Dorothy.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robin Wright is a contributing writer for the New Yorker and the author of Rock the Rage and Rebellion across the Islamic World. This has been the political Scene from the New Yorker. You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts by searching for the New Yorker in your podcast app and find more political analysis and commentary on new yorker.com feel free to rate and review the political scene on Apple Podcast. This podcast is produced by Alex Barron and Hannah Wilentz. For newyorker.com I'm Dorothy Wickenden. America is changing and so is the world.

[Robin Wright]

But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere. I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story. Every weekday, we'll bring you a story.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

From this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Robin Wright]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts from. PRX.