The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Trump's Nuclear Threats
Date: February 1, 2018
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Steve Coll (Staff Writer, Dean of the Columbia Journalism School)

Overview

This episode delves into the escalating nuclear anxieties of early 2018, examining the Trump administration’s policies, global nuclear dynamics, and the renewed proximity to nuclear catastrophe as signaled by the Doomsday Clock. Executive Editor Dorothy Wickenden and veteran journalist Steve Coll discuss the implications of rhetoric, doctrine, and technology shifts, referencing historical context and recent events—like the Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review, President Trump’s statements, Russian and Chinese moves, and North Korea—while raising urgent existential questions about deterrence, stability, and the risk of inadvertent conflict.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Doomsday Clock and Escalating Anxiety (01:16–03:26)

• The Doomsday Clock's move to "two minutes to midnight," its closest since the 1950s, cited concerns over President Trump’s approach to nuclear weapons and proliferation. (01:17)
• The Pentagon’s leaked Nuclear Posture Review proposed expanding the U.S. arsenal, especially with smaller, more precise weapons, signaling a philosophical shift in deterrence.
  • Quote: “This notion that we can have something called a ‘small nuclear weapon,’ ... your mind goes to the idea that, yes, nuclear weapons become usable, and then we're really in trouble...” — Former Secretary of State George Shultz (02:57)

2. How Trump’s Nuclear Policy Differs (03:35–05:33)

• Steve Coll explains proposals to develop lower-yield, more “usable” nuclear arms, in the name of deterrence—a “very disturbing departure.”
• The administration considered lowering the threshold for nuclear response, including possibly retaliating to non-nuclear attacks (like large-scale cyberattacks) with nuclear weapons.
  • Quote: “The rationality of responding [to a cyberattack] ... with a nuclear strike against a nuclear power, it would be insanity because you would simply be inaugurating a nuclear war.” — Steve Coll (04:39)

3. The New Arms Race: U.S., Russia, and China (05:33–07:03)

• Russia compensates for its diminished global standing with heavy nuclear investment and interest in “tactical” nuclear weapons.
• The global trend is toward more “usable” smaller bombs and tactical nukes, especially in unstable regions like South Asia.
  • “There has been... a return to so-called tactical nuclear weapons as part of war planning.” — Steve Coll (06:41)

4. Historical Context: From Hiroshima to Mutually Assured Destruction (07:03–09:57)

• Coll recounts the evolution of nuclear strategy—from battlefield weapons to city-erasing intercontinental missiles and the rise of “mutual deterrence.”
• Tensions and instability persisted through events like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
  • “By the end of the ’50s, you had an arms race in which it was no longer possible to seriously talk about a small-scale nuclear war.” — Steve Coll (08:38)

5. After the Cold War: Marginalization and Resurgence (09:45–11:01)

• Post-Reagan and Cold War, nuclear arsenals shrank; the focus shifted to secure, retaliatory capabilities.
• The renewed reliance on nuclear arms is especially marked in Russia due to other military shortcomings.

6. Republican Approaches to Treaties: Bush, Cheney, Trump (11:01–12:08)

• While Bush and Cheney were skeptical of arms control, they stopped short of overtly aggressive nuclear policies.
• The non-proliferation regime’s importance is underscored for U.S. allies, especially during diplomatic pushes on Iran and North Korea.

7. Global Instability and the Temptation of Proliferation (12:38–14:47)

• Coll warns “the Doomsday Clock got moved... because of the broader instability in the international system ushered in by the Trump administration and its disdain for alliances.” (13:18)
• Waning U.S. reliability may push states like Japan or South Korea toward developing their own nuclear weapons.
  • “You’re going to have many more unmoored decisions ... whether or not it’s necessary ... to have your own nuclear weapons because you can’t rely on the United States anymore.” — Steve Coll (14:24)

8. North Korea: Loose Talk & Real Risks (14:47–15:59)

• Trump’s public taunting and threats against Kim Jong Un have made the risk of accidental or escalatory war more plausible.
• Coll emphasizes the unpredictability of Trump’s temperament:
  • “... this loose talk is just Trump’s idea of the madman theory ... [but] unfortunately ... this is the president’s temperament.” — Steve Coll (15:38)

9. The Dangers of ‘Limited’ Nuclear War (15:59–17:21)

• The administration appears to contemplate scenarios for limited nuclear war, but Coll is critical:
  • “I don’t really understand what circumstances it would be in the interest of the United States to participate in a low-level nuclear war...We have the best conventional military in the world by orders of magnitude.” — Steve Coll (16:18)
• He questions the logic of developing smaller nukes as deterrents, describing the rationale as “murky.”

10. Accidents, False Alarms, and Hair-Trigger Readiness (17:21–19:02)

• Past Cold War incidents and the recent Hawaii missile alert underline the risks of error in high-alert environments.
  • “Just the hair trigger alert system, the civilian panic, the return to civil defense measures, the shortened timelines, the high alert status, it’s an invitation to accidents and mistakes.” — Steve Coll (18:46)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "There has been... a return to so-called tactical nuclear weapons as part of war planning."
  — Steve Coll, discussing new nuclear doctrines (06:41)

• "By the end of the ‘50s, you had an arms race in which it was no longer possible to seriously talk about a small-scale nuclear war."
  — Steve Coll, on the escalation of arms (08:38)

• "The Doomsday Clock got moved a little closer to midnight ... ushered in by the Trump administration and its disdain for alliances..."
  — Steve Coll, on global instability (13:18)

• "[Trump’s] loose talk is just the madman theory ... but unfortunately ... this is the president’s temperament."
  — Steve Coll, on North Korea rhetoric (15:38)

• "Just the hair trigger alert system, the civilian panic... it’s an invitation to accidents and mistakes."
  — Steve Coll on the dangers of accidental nuclear war (18:46)

Timestamps of Major Segments

| Time | Topic | |----------|------------------------------------------------| | 01:16 | Doomsday Clock & Trump’s nuclear comments | | 03:35 | Pentagon’s new Nuclear Posture Review | | 05:44 | Russian & Chinese nuclear posturing | | 07:03 | The origins of nuclear deterrence & Cold War | | 09:45 | Post-Cold War trends | | 11:01 | Bush/Cheney, treaties, and skepticism | | 12:38 | Proliferation risks due to U.S. instability | | 14:47 | North Korea & Trump’s rhetoric | | 15:59 | Limited nuclear war and U.S. policy | | 17:21 | Accidental war and alert protocol concerns |

Tone and Concluding Thoughts

The tone is sober, analytical, and deeply concerned, with Steve Coll often pushing back on administration rationales and emphasizing historical lessons. The episode cautions against normalizing nuclear rhetoric, warns of destabilizing doctrines, and stresses the peril inherent in “hair trigger” nuclear postures—especially in an increasingly uncertain international order.

Final Note:
As Dorothy Wickenden closes: “On that sober note, I’m going to let you go. Thank you so much, Steve.” (19:02)
Coll’s final words: “Maybe we'll talk about something happier next time.” (19:06)

For listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of contemporary nuclear anxieties—rooted in both policy shifts and historical perspective—this episode provides a sharp, unflinching analysis.