Trump's War Room

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode Title: Trump's War Room
Date: February 24, 2017
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: George Packer (New Yorker staff writer)

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Political Scene delves into the tumult and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's early foreign policy, the internal dynamics of his administration, and the prospects for order under his newly-appointed National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster. Host Dorothy Wickenden and guest George Packer discuss the lack of a cohesive strategy in Trump’s approach to international relations, the significance of McMaster’s appointment, and whether Trump’s advisers can mitigate the effects of his impulsive leadership style.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Chaotic Approach to Foreign Policy

• Lack of Unified Strategy
  • George Packer: “It doesn't seem to be unified by any coherent ideas or strategy. It's unified by a kind of a mood of orneriness and sort of fitful lashing out, which is Trump's style and an indifference to the long term consequences of short term impulses.” [02:49]
• America First as a Pronouncement, Not a Policy
  • Packer explains that 'America First' serves more as a slogan than an actionable strategy, with little regard for consistency or diplomatic norms.

2. Tension and Conflicting Messages

• Contradictory Statements on Major Issues
  • Trump’s comments about expanding the nuclear arsenal and wavering on the two-state solution in Israel conflict with statements from his own cabinet, most notably James Mattis, Secretary of Defense. [03:40]
  • Trump has dismissed NATO as “disposable and transactional,” while Mattis reassures European allies of its importance. [04:00]
  • The administration’s stance towards Muslims is described as suspicion and exclusion—“he has essentially told the world's Muslims that they're all under suspicion and we don't really want them in our country”—while McMaster’s outlook is more nuanced and respectful due to his experience abroad.

3. H.R. McMaster: Background and Prospects

• Role of the National Security Advisor
  • Wickenden and Packer outline the pivotal, often president-defining role of the National Security Advisor, explaining models set by predecessors like Kissinger (power-brokering) and Scowcroft (honest broker). [05:12]
• McMaster’s Strengths and Gaps
  • McMaster is praised as a brilliant field commander—most famous for his success in Tal Afar, Iraq (a pattern-setting counterinsurgency operation)—yet lacks Washington experience and has never functioned at such a high interagency level. [05:12]
• Key Quote:
  • Packer: “Being a good leader, being thoughtful, being able to listen, all of those things will be great benefits... But the way I just outlined it, his military experience doesn't really prepare him for this... He does not know Washington.” [06:39]

4. McMaster’s Views vs. Trump’s Policies

• View on Muslim Ban
  • McMaster, according to a friend cited by Packer, sees the ban on Muslim immigrants as "heinous and self-defeating." His experience in Iraq taught him the vital importance of respect and partnership with locals for successful counterinsurgency. [07:51]
  • Packer: “He trained his troops in the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment. You better respect the Iraqis, or you are going to find that they're going to become your enemy.” [08:33]
• Emphasis on Listening
  • McMaster’s approach contrasts starkly with the Trump White House; he has pledged to “come in with your ears open. You can't come in and start talking.” [11:28]

5. Internal Power Dynamics and the Bannon Factor

• Challenges from Steve Bannon
  • Trump has enabled a “shadow National Security Council under Steve Bannon,” posing a challenge for McMaster’s authority and the traditional order. [07:51]
• Restructuring the National Security Council (NSC)
  • McMaster reversed changes that sidelined the Chairman of Joint Chiefs and the Director of National Intelligence, bringing them back into the principal policy discussions. However, Bannon’s influence remains a persistent issue. [14:28]
  • Packer: “If I know McMaster, he's a pretty shrewd reader of the landscape... and I'm sure that's where he sees his biggest battle—inside the White House.” [14:40]

6. Presidential Attitudes and Military Leadership

• Trump’s Respect for the Military
  • Trump appears to be impressed by generals, but may not fully grasp the importance of “fearlessly honest” military advice.
  • Packer: “Trump seems to have a sense that generals are just impressive, you know, that they're all, you know, Pattons in the making. He doesn't seem to have an understanding that part of the code of a really good military officer is to be fearlessly honest.” [15:56]

7. Congressional Oversight and Accountability

• Role of Congress Limited in Foreign Affairs
  • Even with supporters like John McCain and Lindsey Graham, Congress’s checks on presidential foreign policy are weak compared to its oversight of domestic policy.
  • Packer: “So the Senate, you know, other than the individual voices of a few senators, doesn't have a lot to say about foreign policy... the president has a pretty free hand on this stuff. Unless there's scandal. Unless it's something like the Russia affair.” [17:17]
• Emerging Scandals
  • The discussion closes noting the brewing Russia investigation and Michael Flynn’s resignation. Packer notes the danger to McMaster if he gets caught up in a similar scandal.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Foreign Policy:
  • George Packer: “America first is not a strategy, it's just a, it's a pronouncement. And it seems as if for the time being, that's, that's enough for Trump.” [02:49]
• On McMaster’s Leadership Style:
  • George Packer: “This is a guy who does not hold back what he thinks. He stood up to Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.” [12:26]
• On Washington Power Struggles:
  • George Packer: “He has not been able or maybe even hasn’t tried to defang Bannon and his shadow counsel. And that’s where...he sees his biggest battle. Inside the White House.” [14:40]
• On the Limits of Congressional Action:
  • George Packer: “What if they did a hearing on that? Well, that might turn up some serious misdoings or at least a level of chaos that's intolerable. But the president has a pretty free hand on this stuff. Unless there's scandal.” [17:17]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:01:16 — Start of episode/content; context and introduction to the Mexico-US diplomatic situation
• 00:02:49 — Packer discusses the lack of strategy in Trump’s foreign policy
• 00:04:00 — Examples of foreign policy contradictions (nuclear arsenal, NATO, Muslim ban)
• 00:05:12 — Role and significance of the National Security Advisor; McMaster’s background
• 00:07:51 — Discussion of Steve Bannon’s influence and McMaster’s approach to counterinsurgency and the Muslim ban
• 00:11:28 — Wickenden and Packer on McMaster’s listening/leadership style
• 00:12:26 — Story of McMaster standing up to Donald Rumsfeld
• 00:14:28 — McMaster’s moves to restore traditional NSC structure
• 00:15:35 — Trump’s view of military officers, Bannon’s ideological influence
• 00:16:56 — Congressional oversight and accountability questions
• 00:18:26 — Closing discussion: Russia scandal and Flynn’s resignation

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Conclusion

This episode provides an incisive look into the early Trump administration’s foreign policy confusion, the pivotal role of General H.R. McMaster as National Security Advisor, and the enormous challenges facing anyone seeking to inject stability into Trump’s war room. George Packer draws from years of reporting experience to illuminate McMaster’s character and the fraught power struggles inside the White House, making for a timely and essential conversation.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Friday, February 24th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and John Kelly, the head of Homeland Security, traveled to Mexico after a recent executive order expanding deportation efforts and President Trump's vow to reconsider U.S. aid to Mexico. Yesterday, Tillerson had this to Although our.

[Rex Tillerson]

Two nations share a long history, our visit was forward looking, focusing on common interests that would advance security and economic well being. In our meetings, we jointly acknowledge that in a relationship filled with vibrant colors, two strong sovereign countries from time to time will have differences. We listened closely and carefully to each other as we respectfully and patiently raised our respective concerns.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

The Mexican interior secretary, speaking afterwards, said, we do not agree on the different measures that recently were stated by the government of the United States that affect Mexico. George Packer joins me to discuss how to think about Donald Trump's chaotic foreign policy and whether his top advisers will be able to bring some order to the process. Hi George, Welcome. Hey Dorothy, is there any unifying principle so far to Trump's approach to the rest of the world, aside from what seems to be this peculiar defiance of friends and foes alike?

[George Packer]

Yeah, it doesn't seem to be unified by any coherent ideas or strategy. It's unified by a kind of a mood of orneriness and sort of fitful lashing out, which is Trump's style and an indifference to the long term consequences of short term impulses. So America first is not a strategy, it's just a, it's a pronouncement. And it seems as if for the time being, that's, that's enough for Trump. But he does have people in place who are more thoughtful than that and who might be able to both shield him from his own worst impulses and guide him into a more productive way of thinking about the world. But right now, it's impossible to say what the foreign policy of the Trump administration is.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Well, and just to cite a couple more examples from this week and recently, was it yesterday he said that he wants to expand the American nuclear arsenal until it was at the top of the pack. He also has said that he wouldn't insist on a two state solution in Israel after Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that longstanding U.S. policy would remain in place.

[George Packer]

Yeah. And he has suggested that NATO is disposable and transactional. While Mattis tried to assure the Europeans that NATO is at the heart of our view of Europe, he has essentially told the world's Muslims that they're all under suspicion and we don't really want them in our country. While his new National Security Advisor, Lt. Gen. H.R. mcMaster, has worked with Muslims in several countries and understands the need for mutual respect and cooperation, it seems as if the more mature members of his foreign policy team are at this point simply in damage control mode.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

I want to ask you specifically about McMaster, because you know him. You did a long piece largely about him in 2006 for the magazine. You've written more recently about him for New Yorker Online. Just about everyone greeted his arrival with relief. So maybe start by talking about what role the national security adviser traditionally fills and how McMaster is likely to approach the job.

[George Packer]

It's a complicated position and it's changed with different occupants. Henry Kissinger set foreign policy and cut out the traditional policymakers in the State Department and the Defense Department. Brent Scowcroft was the model of the honest broker who allowed for all the views of the bureaucracy to reach the president and to be resolved in the White House. And that's sort of become the tough type of the national security adviser, close advisor to the President, spends almost as much time with the President as any single member of the government, perhaps the most, except for the Chief of Staff of the White House, but also has to have the trust of the bureaucracy because the national security adviser is the conduit of what the other agencies think to the President. And finally he or she has to be able to think beyond the short term crises that come up constantly, the cliches, the fire hose and try to aim the ship in a direction that makes sense. So McMaster is a great field commander. He had success in the first Gulf War as a company tank commander and then real success in the, in the second Iraq War as the kind of the counterinsurgency guru of Tal Afar, which is where I met him, a town in northwestern Iraq. He was the first American officer to have real success with counterinsurgency on a local level in Iraq. And it set the pattern for Anbar province and for David Petraeus, surge, et cetera. So how much that relates to what a national security advisor does is a really different question. I mean, being a good leader, being thoughtful, being able to listen, all of those things will be great benefits in this job. But the way I just outlined it, his military experience doesn't really prepare him for this. He does not know Washington. He has not worked at this level or close to this level in the US Government with civilians as well as with uniformed services. Even though he is a thinker, he hasn't had to think in his job as a global strategist. So he's gonna be really, really tested. But I think the most fundamental test is gonna be his relationship with Trump and with the shadow National Security Council that Trump has allowed to spring up.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Inside the White House under Steve Bannon. One of the things I wanted to ask you is McMaster is a thinker and he has experience on the ground in Iraq. He has fought the so called war on terror for years. As you mentioned above, he feelings about the effective ways to launch a counterinsurgency campaign. He also saidand you cited in your recent piece on newyorker.com, that he really disagrees. At least a friend says he thinks that McMaster disagrees with the ban on Muslim immigrants, calling it heinous and self defeating. Could you talk a little bit about that? And that as a particular flashpoint in this White House?

[George Packer]

Yeah, I mean, I saw McMaster and Tal Afar working closely with the Iraqi, the local Iraqi political leadership, the mayor of Tal Afar. Najim became a very close friend of McMaster's. And I think McMaster helped him get out of Iraq at a time when his life was in danger. So there was something very close there. And he also was working closely with the local Iraqi military officers. So he understood just instinctively you need these people. He trained his troops in the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment. You better respect the Iraqis, or you are going to find that they're going to become your enemy. This is part of our war, is to treat people with respect, whether or not we like them. And I saw him with close Iraqi friends. We need them. And that's basic to counterinsurgency, to counter terror. I think my reservation about him as a counterinsurgent is he does have a lot of faith in military power. Even though he. He talked the talk of the need for a political approach to war and counterinsurgency, he really believes in the effectiveness of military power and I think in dealing with isis, which is going to be the closest case that will confront him early on to his work in Iraq. I think he's going to put a fair amount of emphasis on military force. But. But the important thing is he will also understand that you can't simply bomb Raqqa and solve the problem. You need to know who's going to govern in Raqqa, who will take over after isis. So these are all things he's lived through in Iraq, and we'll have to think about in Syria as well.

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[George Packer]

I want a shark that.

[Katie Drummond]

That eats the Internet, that turns it all off, unfiltered and unafraid. So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online. To the best of my ability, every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times. Meaning and context. True or false. You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me. One day, at some point, as of yet undefined, in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to the Big Interview right now, in the same place you find WIRED's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

When you were talking to McMaster in 2006, he talked about warfare and said, you've got to come in with your ears open. You can't come in and start talking. And that just really struck me, especially given the White House that he is now part of.

[George Packer]

And from what I've heard and read, he's carrying that dictum out in his new job. He's going through the National Security Council at the Old Executive Office Building and introducing himself to the staff and finding out what they're thinking and essentially trying to create a team, which Flynn didn't do. So I think McMaster's probably his first job, as he sees it, is to listen. He also has to build a relationship with Trump, and I don't know how he's going to do that if he speaks his mind to Trump. This is what the fundamental question I have is. This is a guy who does not hold back what he thinks. He stood up to Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Tell us about that a little bit.

[George Packer]

McMaster was a colonel in Central Command under General John Abizaid, so he was several rungs down from the Secretary of Defense. He was not in a position to stand up to the mighty Donald Rumsfeld. But Rumsfeld was insisting in the early part of the war that this was not an insurgency because it didn't fit with the war that Rumsfeld wanted to fight. And McMaster was telling him, yes, it is, and we need to activate the doctrine that we have to fight an insurgency. Rumsfeld at one point, was faxing McMaster pages from the memoirs of Che Guevara to prove that by the classical definition of insurgency, Iraq just didn't qualify. So McMaster was quite willing both to stand up to Rumsfeld and then to speak to journalists about all of this.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

But who won that encounter?

[George Packer]

I think in the short term, Rumsfeld did, because he was the man in power. And for two years, we had no coherent strategy in Iraq, and the place went from bad to worse. But McMaster pretty much on his own. Once he had a command up in Tal Afar, which is just west of Mosul, and it had become an Al Qaeda stronghold. He just went ahead and carried out what he thought was the right strategy, really, without guidance from anyone. And it worked well enough that the word got back to Washington, and McMaster started to become kind of a favorite of the Bush administration. And Condoleezza Rice started using the phrase clear, hold, and build to describe the strategy in Iraq, which is essentially counterinsurgency. So McMaster pretty much on his own shifted American strategy by showing that something else could work better. Will he be as willing to stand up to the boss in this White House, a boss who has absolutely no tolerance for really strong dissenting views, especially when it comes to things like how to treat Muslims? I just don't know.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And just getting back to the re restructuring of the National Security Council, it sounds as though McMaster wants to revert back to the organization as we've come to know it in recent administrations.

[George Packer]

Well, from what I've read, he has reversed an order that had somewhat demoted the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Director of National Intelligence and limited them to just certain Principals Committee meetings rather than having them attend all of them, only ones that they had some subject matter expertise in. He has reversed that they will be parts of permanent parts of the of the National Security Council and the Principals Committees. But he so far has not been able or maybe even hasn't tried to defang Bannon and his shadow counsel. And that's where, I mean, if I know McMaster, he's a pretty shrewd reader of the landscape, physical and human, and I'm sure that's where he sees his biggest battle. Inside the White House.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

We do get the sense that Trump respects military officials. He has selected two who are extremely capable. But then, as you've alluded to earlier, he has the ideologically driven Steve Bannon and others in the White House who have a kind of Islamophobia that certainly characterized Flynn in his brief moment in office.

[George Packer]

I mean, Flynn seems to have really connected with Trump in their views. I think Trump has a weakness for senior military, for guys in uniform. McMaster has this gravelly voice and shaved head and slightly intimidating mean, although he's actually a really fun guy and has a great smile and laugh. And I think that must have impressed Trump. Now, did they get deep into policy? From what I've heard of Trump, he doesn't do that in these conversations. He doesn't have the attention span. So I don't know how clear the understanding is about where McMaster's going to take things. And Trump seems to have a sense that generals are just impressive, you know, that they're all, you know, patents in the making. He doesn't seem to have an understanding that part of the code of a really good military officer is to be fearlessly honest.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

You've thought and written about for years about the role of the Congress in following through on its duties and this is something we've discussed on this program in recent weeks as well. What exactly can be done by Congress to keep the commander in chief accountable? And how likely do you think it is that this Republican Congress will do that job?

[George Packer]

You know, McMaster has friends in the Senate. I mean, John McCain is a big backer of his, and they have a similar outlook. They both believe in internationalism and US Leadership, and they're also both big believers in. In the efficacy of military force. So in McCain, he'll have an ally. Lindsey Graham, he'll have an ally. But the Senate, you know, other than the individual voices of a few senators, doesn't have a lot to say about foreign policy. Barack Obama was able to have the foreign policy he wanted, for better or worse. It was domestic policy that he was so bedeviled by on. By the Congress. So I don't know that a Senate that isn't willing to really do investigations. Like, what if they held a committee hearing on Steve Bannon on the shadow National Security Council? You know, what if they did a hearing on that? Well, that might turn up some serious misdoings or at least a level of chaos that's intolerable. But the president has a pretty free hand on this stuff. Unless there's scandal. Unless it's something like the Russia affair.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Well, that was the final question, and that is a brewing scandal, and there are investigations underway at the moment.

[George Packer]

Yeah. And Flynn was burned and destroyed by it. McMaster, I'm sure, will go in thinking this is something that could kill me, that could kill my career if I ever got a hold of information that I didn't then somehow get to the public, and that implicates the Trump administration in some sort of insidious relationship with Russia, whether back during the campaign or now.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Thank you so much, George.

[George Packer]

Okay, thanks.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

George Packer is a New Yorker staff writer and the author of the Assassin's America in Iraq. This has been the Political Scene from the New Yorker. You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts by searching for the New Yorker in your podcast app. And find more political analysis and commentary on newyorker.com feel free to rate and review the political scene on itunes. This podcast is produced by Alex Barron and Jill Dubeuff for newyorker.com with help from Daniel Wenger. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[David Remnick]

Right now, we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our country has ever known. I'm David Remnick, and each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Charlamagne, the God, and so many more. That's all in the New Yorker Radio Hour, wherever you listen to podcasts.

[George Packer]

From prx.