War Wary

Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: War Wary
Date: January 7, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Dexter Filkins (Staff Writer, Author of The Forever War)

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Brief Overview

In this episode, executive editor Dorothy Wickenden discusses escalating tensions in the Middle East with staff writer Dexter Filkins, focusing on the fallout from Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric. The conversation unpacks the deep Saudi-Iranian rivalry, its broader regional and global reverberations, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy—particularly in the context of ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and the rise of ISIS.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation Between Saudi Arabia and Iran

• Trigger: Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric, Sheikh Al Nimr, sparking violent protests in Iran including an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran (01:16–02:07).
• Saudi Motivation: King Salman, under internal pressure and amid a sense of vulnerability, felt compelled to carry out the execution. It served as both a domestic gesture and a provocative message to Iran (02:49–03:36).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (02:49):
    "I think King Salman, who's now just about almost exactly a year into the job, felt like he didn't have a choice... But at the same time, I think it was a message to Iran."
• Regional Rivalry: The Saudi-Iran rivalry is described as “like two tectonic plates...pushing up against each other for centuries,” with current flashpoints in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

2. Economic and Political Pressures in Saudi Arabia

• Oil Crisis: Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues, which have drastically declined, has left the regime scrambling for legitimacy and domestic control (03:36–05:11).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (04:49):
    "They're not running out of money, but every morning they wake up and they have millions of dollars less than they had the day before."

3. U.S. Policy Dilemmas and the Sectarian Middle East

• Complexity of ISIS: The American view often reduces ISIS to Islamic extremism, but Filkins stresses it is “just one symptom” of a much broader Shiite-Sunni conflict (05:11–07:05).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (05:43):
    "ISIS is a piece of, as you say, a much larger conflict. The Islamic world is overwhelmingly Sunni, but you have the great Shiite power, Iran...challenging the status quo."
• US Reluctance: Obama’s hesitance to escalate U.S. involvement is rooted in an understanding of the “murky and...swamp” of regional politics and alliances.

4. Iraq: A Case Study in Broken States

• Post-2003 Chaos: The American invasion upended Iraq’s sectarian balance, empowering Shiites and disenfranchising Sunnis, laying ground for the civil war and ISIS (07:05–08:51).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (07:32):
    "It sounds much more complicated than it actually is... It's about power. It's less about religion."
• Iraq Today: The recapture of Ramadi from ISIS is discussed as a fragile, transactional alliance between the U.S., Sunni tribes, and remnants of the Iraqi army (08:51–10:43).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (09:13):
    "Iraq is a broken state. It's a failed state...And what I feared was that the only effective fighting force...are these Iranian trained, Iranian backed, Iranian directed Shiite militias."
• Leadership Comparison: Prime Minister Abadi is portrayed as more moderate and less sectarian compared to Maliki, which shapes trust and tactics (10:43–11:36).

5. Syria: No Good Options

• Multi-layered Civil War: All major external players (Saudi, Iran, U.S., Russia, Assad) nominally want to destroy ISIS, but their deeper interests are at odds (12:22–14:14).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (12:47):
    "Let's just stand back and look at the nightmare in Syria... You have the government...run by Bashar al Assad, who is a genocidal murderer..."
• Stalemate and Unlikelihood of Settlement: Despite peace talks, the power balance and devastation on the ground make a near-term resolution unlikely.

6. U.S. Political Implications and the 2016 Election

• Clinton vs. Obama: Looking ahead to the presidential election, Filkins predicts that, regardless of campaign rhetoric, any president will face the same harsh reality: the brutal absolutism of the choices in Syria and Iraq (15:18–16:09).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (15:38):
    "I think what Hillary Clinton as the nominee will eventually come around to...is we need to destroy isis. And that means keeping Bashar al Assad and his murderous government in power."
• No Easy Answers: Both the Republican and Democratic candidates are boxed in by the daunting complexity of the situation.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Two tectonic plates...have been pushing up against each other for centuries.”
  —Dexter Filkins on Saudi-Iranian rivalry (02:49).
• “We’re trying desperately to coddle [Iraq] back together.”
  —Dexter Filkins on the post-ISIS and post-civil-war patchwork in Iraq (09:13).
• “All the choices are bad. You know, that's welcome to the Middle East.”
  —Dexter Filkins summing up the policy conundrum (14:19).
• “We need to destroy isis. And that means keeping Bashar al Assad and his murderous government in power.”
  —Dexter Filkins on the likely endgame for U.S. policy in Syria (15:38).

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:16–02:07 | Background: Saudi execution triggers Iran protests and embassy attack| | 02:49–03:36 | Saudi rationale for execution; Message to Iran | | 03:36–05:11 | Economic woes and legitimacy crisis in Saudi Arabia | | 05:11–07:05 | ISIS as a symptom of wider sectarian conflict | | 07:05–08:51 | Iraq since 2003, sectarian dynamics | | 08:51–10:43 | Ramadi, the collapse of the Iraqi state, Kurdish issues | | 10:43–11:36 | Comparison of Abadi and Maliki’s approaches | | 12:22–14:14 | The Syrian civil war’s proxies and complexity | | 14:14–15:18 | Limitations of U.S. policy options | | 15:18–16:09 | U.S. 2016 election: Candidates’ choices in the Middle East |

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Episode Tone

The conversation throughout is sobering, informed, and pragmatic. Filkins’ candor about hard realities, and Wickenden’s questioning, convey a deep wariness and skepticism about easy solutions, reflecting the “war weary” mood of both American policy debates and those caught in the crossfire.

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For listeners:
This episode provides a clear-eyed, historically grounded look at why so many Middle Eastern conflicts seem intractable—highlighting the limits of U.S. power and the enduring local dynamics that thwart simple resolutions.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with the New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Thursday, January 7th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. Last weekend, Saudi Arabia's execution of a Shiite cleric prompted crowds in Tehran to sack the Saudi embassy there. In response, Saudi Sunni monarchy cut off diplomatic relations with Iran. Here was White House press secretary Josh Earnest.

[C]

There have been direct concerns raised by US Officials to Saudi officials about the potential damaging consequences of following through on the execution. Unfortunately, the concerns that we expressed to the Saudis have precipitated the kinds of consequences that we were concerned about.

[B]

Just yesterday, Iran accused Saudi Arabia of an attack on its embassy in the capital of Yemen. Dexter Filkins is here to discuss what these acts mean for the region and for American interests there. So, Dexter, I had been thinking about a month or so ago that maybe we could talk about the good news in the Middle east. The nuclear deal with Iran, the Syria peace talks, the recent Iraqi government victories against isis. But obviously not so. King Salman, who's relatively new at the job, knew that the Execution of the sheik would inflame the country's Shiite minority and, of course, Iran. It seems to have been a popular move within the kingdom. What was he trying to achieve?

[D]

I think King Salman, who's now just about almost exactly a year into the job, felt like he didn't have a choice. I think that there was a popular demand that this cleric, Sheikh Al Nimer, be executed. He was the only Shiite among dozens of others who were put to death last week. So he felt like he had to do it. But at the same time, I think it was a message to Iran. To the Iran. Saudi rivalry in the Middle east is huge. It's been going on for years. It's like two tectonic plates that have been pushing up against each other for centuries. And it's really broken out in the last several months over Syria, over Yemen, over Lebanon. So this is really just a manifestation of this intense rivalry which is playing out.

[B]

There's also other economic issues that are at stake here. There's declining oil revenues from the US and a $100 billion budget. Defic. Understand it. They're losing the proxy war against Iran and Yemen. So how exactly does the breaking with Iran help these problems?

[D]

I think that this is a way to shore up domestic support for what is really squeezing the Saudi ruling family, which is, as you mentioned, the price of oil, as we all know, has been dropping like a rock around the world for years. It's dropped something like 75% over the last few years. And if you're a country like Saudi Arabia, who gets its entire budget and has been basically buying off debt, dissent in the monarchy for years, they're in trouble. They're not running out of money, but every morning they wake up and they have millions of dollars less than they had the day before. And so that's causing a great deal of worry for them. And at the same time, I think there's a great deal of insecurity, because, remember, this is an unelected monarchy. It's of questionable legitimacy. Their biggest friend in the world that they could always count on was the United States, in part because we needed Saudi Arabia because we needed their oil. And suddenly we don't oil that much anymore because of fracking and natural gas and all these other things that are coming online. Suddenly the Saudi royal family is feeling very much alone and isolated. And then they look across the Persian Gulf and they have this very aggressive. A country which is willing. Iran willing to challenge the status quo. And that's all combining right now to make Them feel very insecure.

[B]

You know, here in the US ISIS is usually cast in recent months in particular, as the problem of Islamic extremism. And of course, we're in a presidential campaign, and Republican candidates use it as a way of beating up on Obama. But as you mentioned earlier, the Saudi Iran confrontation is a reminder that ISIS is just one symptom of a war with Islam. It's been going on for how many centuries? 14 centuries? So given that, what can the US accomplish in the way of undermining ISIS?

[D]

Well, I think it gives you some appreciation for. For Obama's reluctance to get more deeply involved in a place like Syria, even just in going after isis, because you just see how murky and what a swamp it is. So what's really happening here? ISIS is a piece of, as you say, a much larger conflict. The Islamic world is overwhelmingly Sunni, but you have the great Shiite power, Iran, which is, in a way, and I wouldn't go too far with this analogy, but it's like Germany in Europe anytime after its unification in 1870, all the way to the 1930s. It's a power that is waking up, and it's waking up to its population and its strength and its wealth, and it's challenging the status quo. And for the Shiites, the Shiites have always been seen as the downtrodden in the Islamic world. And so this is deeply disconcerting to the Saudi royal family. This is playing out everywhere, not just as we saw last week, but it's playing out in Lebanon, where they have intense rivalry there. Hezbollah, the militarized political party there, is basically an arm of the Iranian government. Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting it out in Syria on the ground. The same thing is happening in Yemen, where there's a civil war there, where both the Iranians and the Saudis are deeply involved. And so this battle is taking place across several fronts in the Middle East.

[B]

Well, and let's talk about Iraq, which you know very well. Iraq, too, has a relatively new Shiite prime minister. You were there throughout the war in Ira, which began in 2003. The new government was set up to the exclusion of the Sunni majority. Then we had the Arab Spring in 2012. I mean, it's such a mess. Is there a way that you can help us sort of pull back and understand how we got to this point?

[D]

It sounds much more complicated than it actually is. I mean, this is a struggle for supremacy across the Middle East. That's really what it is. It's about power. It's less about religion. If you go back to 2003, where a lot of this starts, unfortunately, with the American invasion of Iraq. We shattered the Iraqi state. The Iraqi state was a Sunni minority that dominated a Shiite majority. And we broke that and we put in place a Shiite government. And so if you look at the war that followed for many years after, as we all remember, the Sunni insurgency in Iraq was the manifestation of an embittered Sunni minority. We empowered the majority. And the prime minister in Iraq now, Al Abadi, he's in an extremely difficult position because we are his best friend. We helped put him in power. And he has the Iranians right next door, who, as you say, are also Shiite. Abadi is Shiite. And so the Iranians have one of his arms and we have the other. And he's getting pulled in every direction. And you can see that just anytime he speaks about any of this, he's very conscious of the fact that he is right in the middle, right? And literally Baghdad and the Tigris river, which runs right down through the middle of Baghdad, that is the fault line. That is the Sunni Shiite fault line for the entire Middle East.

[B]

So talk about Ramadi, which was just recaptured from ISIS with the cooperation, as I understand it, of Sunni tribes and the US Coalition. Mosul, ultimately is the big prize. You sort of touched on this earlier. Does an Iraqi state even exist anymore? We've got the Kurds asking for self determination. You've got factions within the Kurds that are fighting with each other.

[D]

Iraq is a broken state. It's a failed state. There's no other way to put it. And we are trying desperately to coddle it back together. And that's essentially what you're seeing in Ramadi. So Ramadi is the capital of Anbar Province. It's really the capital of the Sunni minority and the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. And for the past year, most of western and northern Iraq has been under the control of isis. And so what you saw this week was the Iraqi army and I would put quotation marks around that went in and retook Ramadi. And how did they do it? They did it by basically buying off Sunni tribes, and they did it with American air power. And to me, what was interesting about the recapture of Ramadi, they pushed out isis. The Iraqi flag is now in downtown Ramadi. What's interesting about it is what the Iraqi government didn't do. They didn't use Shiite militias to do the job. There is no Iraqi army to speak of anymore. I mean, it disintegrated last year. And we've been trying to put it back together. And what I feared was that the only effective fighting force that the Iraqi government can marshal are these Iranian trained, Iranian backed, Iranian directed Shiite militias. And the great fear was that they were going to send them into Ramadi and that would just inflame the civil war, not help to end it. So they didn't do that. They sent in the units that they had, the Iraqi army units that still held together, and they basically spread around the cache to the Iraqi Sunni tribes that flipped against isis and they managed to push them out.

[B]

So there's a glimmer of hope. Maliki would have handled this differently, would he not?

[D]

Yes, Maliki would have sent in the Shiite militias. You know, Abadi is a very restrained guy. He's a very measured person. He's not nearly as sectarian as Maliki was. You can see that when you meet him. He's a very sober person. And I think he's pretty earnest here. I mean, he wants to do the right thing and he's trying to hold the Iraqi state together here. You know, this is part of a very, very long battle against ISIS that's going to take many years. The second largest city in Iraq is Mosul. That's a Sunni majority city. It is under the control of isis. The Kurds are not going to go in there and kick ISIS out because they have no designs of ruling over Mosul. Who's going to do it? There will not be an Iraqi army capable of doing that for a very long time.

[C]

I'm Katie Drummond. I'm Wired's Global Editorial Director.

[D]

I'm Michael Kollori, Wired's Director of Consumer Tech and Culture.

[B]

And I'm Lauren Good. I'm a senior correspondent at Wired. And our show Uncanny Valley is all about the people, power and influence of Silicon Valley.

[C]

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[D]

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[C]

Make sure, make sure you're following Uncanny Valley in your podcast app of choice so you don't miss an episode.

[B]

So getting back to Syria and where we are right now, correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing Saudi Arabia and Iran and the US and Russia and Assad have in common is a determination to destroy isis.

[D]

Yes.

[B]

In December, Saudi Arabia And Iran were in New York to talk about the civil war there. And new talks now are set on for January 25th in Geneva. What can we expect?

[D]

I wouldn't expect a lot. Let's just stand back and look at the nightmare in Syria. You have the government, the Syrian government run by Bashar al Assad, who is a genocidal murderer. He is supported and he is kept in power by the Iranians and by the Russians. Late last year, he was starting to teeter, and that's when Vladimir Putin jumped in to save him. And on the other side of that, you have the United States and Saudi Arabia and much of the rest of the Middle east, which is supporting the rebels. In the middle of all this is isis. And so it's an incredibly complicated thing. How do you get rid of Assad without helping or strengthening isis and with.

[B]

Nothing to replace him as far as.

[D]

Nothing to replace them. And so what everybody's trying to do, at least on this side of the ball, is to try to find a kind of moderate third force on the ground in Syria that is not ISIS and not Assad and represents, or at least claims to represent the vast majority of Syrians who are Sunni. And we haven't been able to do that. ISIS is by far the strongest group, which is battling the Syrian government. And then on the other side, of course, you have the Russians and the Syrians who are fighting it out. So I think this is a stalemate. And even though there are 200,000 people dead and millions upon millions of refugees, I can't see a settlement here happening until something changes on the ground.

[B]

But is that narrow approach the right one to take? What is the right approach to take?

[D]

Look, this is an impossible situation, and all the choices are bad. You know, that's welcome to the Middle East. So what can you do? Except what we're doing, we're trying to get people talking. And, you know, that means literally getting the Saudis and the Iranians across the table from each other to talk about this stuff. I think that, again, there's been a lot of discussion, certainly among the Republican candidates about doing more to fight isis. I think that we've gotten a better sense this week of just how complicated things are on the ground. We don't have a lot of friends on the ground in Syria. And I think when you talk to President Obama or when you see him talk about the situation in Syria, he does not want to get dragged into this mess. I think that he believes you go into that part of the world, we don't understand it. We're just gonna make it worse and we're gonna suffer a lot on our own and we're gonna spend a lot of money and it's all gonna go down the drain. And I don't wanna go there with.

[B]

The election coming up here. Hillary Clinton has always been somewhat to the right of Obama on this issue. She will be under enormous pressure, assuming she is the Democratic nominee from whoever her Republican competitor is. How do you see her policy being shaped as we head past the primaries and into the general election?

[D]

Well, I think that all the candidates, Hillary included, also the Republicans, whoever gets the nomination or even becomes president, I think that they're all facing the same really hideous choice, which is between ISIS on one hand and Bashar al Assad on the other. And I think what Hillary Clinton as the nominee will eventually come around to, whether she's able to say it out loud or not, is we need to destroy isis. And that means keeping Bashar al Assad and his murderous government in power.

[B]

Wow. I'm going to stop there, and then we'll pick up again in coming months. Thanks so much, Dexter.

[D]

Thank you.

[B]

Dexter Filkins is a staff writer and the author of the Forever War, about the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is the Political Scene podcast produced by Alex Barron. For newyorker.com, i'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[C]

You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts in the itunes store. You can find past episodes of the Political Scene and the New Yorker's fiction and poetry [e-mail] podcast the weekly audio edition of the New Yorker is [e-mail] what the hell is going on right now? And why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis, and maybe you are, too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the Big Interview. Each week I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun. I want a shark that. That eats the Internet, that turns it all off, unfiltered and unafraid. So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online. To the best of my ability, every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times, meaning and context. True or false. You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to the big interview right now in the same place you find WIRED's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.

[B]

From.

[D]

PRX.