The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: War Wary
Date: January 7, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Dexter Filkins (Staff Writer, Author of The Forever War)

Brief Overview

In this episode, executive editor Dorothy Wickenden discusses escalating tensions in the Middle East with staff writer Dexter Filkins, focusing on the fallout from Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric. The conversation unpacks the deep Saudi-Iranian rivalry, its broader regional and global reverberations, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy—particularly in the context of ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and the rise of ISIS.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation Between Saudi Arabia and Iran

• Trigger: Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric, Sheikh Al Nimr, sparking violent protests in Iran including an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran (01:16–02:07).
• Saudi Motivation: King Salman, under internal pressure and amid a sense of vulnerability, felt compelled to carry out the execution. It served as both a domestic gesture and a provocative message to Iran (02:49–03:36).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (02:49):
    "I think King Salman, who's now just about almost exactly a year into the job, felt like he didn't have a choice... But at the same time, I think it was a message to Iran."
• Regional Rivalry: The Saudi-Iran rivalry is described as “like two tectonic plates...pushing up against each other for centuries,” with current flashpoints in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

2. Economic and Political Pressures in Saudi Arabia

• Oil Crisis: Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues, which have drastically declined, has left the regime scrambling for legitimacy and domestic control (03:36–05:11).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (04:49):
    "They're not running out of money, but every morning they wake up and they have millions of dollars less than they had the day before."

3. U.S. Policy Dilemmas and the Sectarian Middle East

• Complexity of ISIS: The American view often reduces ISIS to Islamic extremism, but Filkins stresses it is “just one symptom” of a much broader Shiite-Sunni conflict (05:11–07:05).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (05:43):
    "ISIS is a piece of, as you say, a much larger conflict. The Islamic world is overwhelmingly Sunni, but you have the great Shiite power, Iran...challenging the status quo."
• US Reluctance: Obama’s hesitance to escalate U.S. involvement is rooted in an understanding of the “murky and...swamp” of regional politics and alliances.

4. Iraq: A Case Study in Broken States

• Post-2003 Chaos: The American invasion upended Iraq’s sectarian balance, empowering Shiites and disenfranchising Sunnis, laying ground for the civil war and ISIS (07:05–08:51).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (07:32):
    "It sounds much more complicated than it actually is... It's about power. It's less about religion."
• Iraq Today: The recapture of Ramadi from ISIS is discussed as a fragile, transactional alliance between the U.S., Sunni tribes, and remnants of the Iraqi army (08:51–10:43).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (09:13):
    "Iraq is a broken state. It's a failed state...And what I feared was that the only effective fighting force...are these Iranian trained, Iranian backed, Iranian directed Shiite militias."
• Leadership Comparison: Prime Minister Abadi is portrayed as more moderate and less sectarian compared to Maliki, which shapes trust and tactics (10:43–11:36).

5. Syria: No Good Options

• Multi-layered Civil War: All major external players (Saudi, Iran, U.S., Russia, Assad) nominally want to destroy ISIS, but their deeper interests are at odds (12:22–14:14).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (12:47):
    "Let's just stand back and look at the nightmare in Syria... You have the government...run by Bashar al Assad, who is a genocidal murderer..."
• Stalemate and Unlikelihood of Settlement: Despite peace talks, the power balance and devastation on the ground make a near-term resolution unlikely.

6. U.S. Political Implications and the 2016 Election

• Clinton vs. Obama: Looking ahead to the presidential election, Filkins predicts that, regardless of campaign rhetoric, any president will face the same harsh reality: the brutal absolutism of the choices in Syria and Iraq (15:18–16:09).
  • Quote—Dexter Filkins (15:38):
    "I think what Hillary Clinton as the nominee will eventually come around to...is we need to destroy isis. And that means keeping Bashar al Assad and his murderous government in power."
• No Easy Answers: Both the Republican and Democratic candidates are boxed in by the daunting complexity of the situation.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Two tectonic plates...have been pushing up against each other for centuries.”
  —Dexter Filkins on Saudi-Iranian rivalry (02:49).
• “We’re trying desperately to coddle [Iraq] back together.”
  —Dexter Filkins on the post-ISIS and post-civil-war patchwork in Iraq (09:13).
• “All the choices are bad. You know, that's welcome to the Middle East.”
  —Dexter Filkins summing up the policy conundrum (14:19).
• “We need to destroy isis. And that means keeping Bashar al Assad and his murderous government in power.”
  —Dexter Filkins on the likely endgame for U.S. policy in Syria (15:38).

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:16–02:07 | Background: Saudi execution triggers Iran protests and embassy attack| | 02:49–03:36 | Saudi rationale for execution; Message to Iran | | 03:36–05:11 | Economic woes and legitimacy crisis in Saudi Arabia | | 05:11–07:05 | ISIS as a symptom of wider sectarian conflict | | 07:05–08:51 | Iraq since 2003, sectarian dynamics | | 08:51–10:43 | Ramadi, the collapse of the Iraqi state, Kurdish issues | | 10:43–11:36 | Comparison of Abadi and Maliki’s approaches | | 12:22–14:14 | The Syrian civil war’s proxies and complexity | | 14:14–15:18 | Limitations of U.S. policy options | | 15:18–16:09 | U.S. 2016 election: Candidates’ choices in the Middle East |

Episode Tone

The conversation throughout is sobering, informed, and pragmatic. Filkins’ candor about hard realities, and Wickenden’s questioning, convey a deep wariness and skepticism about easy solutions, reflecting the “war weary” mood of both American policy debates and those caught in the crossfire.

For listeners:
This episode provides a clear-eyed, historically grounded look at why so many Middle Eastern conflicts seem intractable—highlighting the limits of U.S. power and the enduring local dynamics that thwart simple resolutions.