The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: What Happens if Trump Is Elected While on Trial?
Date: July 22, 2023
Host: Jane Mayer
Guests: Susan Glasser, Evan Osnos

Overview

In this episode, Jane Mayer is joined by colleagues Susan Glasser and Evan Osnos to dissect the tumultuous state of the 2024 presidential race, particularly focusing on the Republican field, Donald Trump’s mounting legal troubles, and the ramifications of potential third-party candidates. The conversation zeroes in on the unprecedented scenario in which Trump may be nominated—or even elected—while facing serious criminal indictments, exploring what this could mean for American democracy, the functioning of government, and voter choice in 2024.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Republican Primary Field: DeSantis’s Struggles and the Search for an Alternative

Timestamps: 03:35–13:06

• DeSantis’s Failing Momentum

  • Susan Glasser (03:35): Describes Ron DeSantis as “this year's Jeb Bush,” noting that donor investments have not translated into polling success. DeSantis chose to campaign as a more extreme but less charismatic Trump, which hasn't resonated.
  • Quote: “The Trump voters seem to want to prefer Trump to the fake Trump.” (Susan Glasser, 05:06)

• Why Can’t DeSantis Break Out?

  • Evan Osnos (05:57): Draws parallels to Jeb Bush’s lack of enthusiasm in 2016, highlighting DeSantis’s “reboot” is unlikely to revive his campaign since his main problem is the candidate himself, not staff or donors.
  • Quote: “We're being told to be enthusiastic about Ron DeSantis, but nobody is enthusiastic about Ron DeSantis.” (Evan Osnos, 06:09)

• The Establishment Favorite: Tim Scott

  • Discussion (08:28): The establishment’s attention turns to Tim Scott and the appeal his optimistic, “Horatio Alger” story has for big donors.
  • Quote: “They have money. They just don't have votes.” (Susan Glasser, 10:03)
  • Jane Mayer (11:49): Questions whether Tim Scott’s candidacy reflects the realities of Republican voters, especially considering race and donor-driven optimism.

• Christie as the Trump Critic

  • Susan Glasser (13:06): Describes Chris Christie’s direct attacks on Trump as “catnip” to media but identifies the anti-Trump lane in the GOP as “essentially non-existent.”

2. Trump’s Mounting Legal Problems and Political Implications

Timestamps: 16:23–29:25

• Impending Indictments and the Gravity of the Charges

  • Susan Glasser (16:56): Outlines the significance of the looming indictment for Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election—calling the effort a “plot against America.”
  • Quote: “So far, up until now, not Donald Trump, not the people who worked with him... none of them have been charged. So I think in that sense, it's a very, very significant potential case.” (Susan Glasser, 18:05)

• Evidence and Possible Cooperators

  • Jane Mayer & Susan Glasser (18:47): Speculate on key evidence and potential witnesses (e.g., Mark Meadows), comparing the prosecution strategy to mob cases.
  • Evan Osnos (19:57): Stresses the necessity and historical import of prosecuting a former president for such grave crimes.

• Logistics of Multiple Concurrent Trials

  • Evan Osnos (22:04): Explains the complexities of scheduling multiple trials with a presidential campaign underway, noting criminal proceedings will pull Trump off the campaign trail.
  • Quote: “If Donald Trump manages to get elected president and takes office at a time when he is still on trial... the Justice Department... will find themselves actually serving as a part of his defense almost overnight. It's a bizarre but sort of inescapable fact of where we are.” (Evan Osnos, 23:29)

• Timing and the Republican Nomination

  • Susan Glasser (24:07): Notes the classified documents case trial is set for May 2024, after most primaries—meaning criminal proceedings likely won’t be resolved before Trump could secure the nomination.
  • Quote: “Donald Trump will very likely, quite possibly have already sewn up the Republican nomination by the time these trials even begin, nevermind are resolved.” (Susan Glasser, 24:23)

• Implications for American Democracy

  • Roundtable (25:09–27:58): They weigh whether the timing worsens the crisis, the potential of Trump running for president to shield himself from prosecution, and the constitutional crisis this could trigger.
  • Jane Mayer (25:15): Suggests Trump is running to pardon himself, framing his legal jeopardy as a political persecution to his base.

3. Trump’s Second Term Plans: Toward an Authoritarian Presidency?

Timestamps: 27:58–33:20

• A Blueprint for a More Powerful, Politicized Executive

  • Jane Mayer (27:58): Discusses a leaked blueprint from the Conservative Partnership Institute envisioning a Trump second term that centralizes unprecedented power in the presidency.
  • Quote: “It's a kind of terrifying image of a game plan for a dictatorship, really, or at least a demagogue who could take power.” (Jane Mayer, 29:16)

• Loyalists and Dismantling Professional Civil Service

  • Susan Glasser (30:34): Trump learned from his first term to fill government only with loyalists, and he would move to eliminate or politicize traditionally independent agencies and civil service positions.

• Risks to Checks and Balances

  • Jane Mayer (33:20): Warns this would turn government into a machine for rewarding friends and punishing enemies, corrupting federal power fundamentally.

4. The Third-Party “No Labels” Movement and American Voter Dissatisfaction

Timestamps: 33:20–40:45

• No Labels Group: Potential Impact and Hidden Agendas

  • Panel (35:01): Describes No Labels as a centrist third-party effort involving Joe Manchin and Jon Huntsman, but notes skepticism about its viability and true purpose.
  • Quote: “If it comes down to the point when it appears that he [Manchin] would be the person who restored Donald Trump to the presidency... my hunch is that he would find some way of actually avoiding being the person that history ascribes that blame too.” (Evan Osnos, 36:20)

• Spoiler Effect and Democratic Anxiety

  • Jane Mayer (37:30): Points out strategic concerns about Penn and Jacobson’s motivations given Mark Penn's political history, raising fears that No Labels could siphon votes from Democrats and help Trump.

• New Super PAC to Counter No Labels

  • Evan Osnos (38:49): Notes the formation of “Citizens to Save Our Republic,” a super PAC aimed at thwarting No Labels.

• Underlying Discontent with Both Major Candidates

  • Jane Mayer (39:03): Highlights deep voter dissatisfaction with both Trump and Biden and the risk of volatility or “something bad” happening in the election.
  • Susan Glasser (39:38): Emphasizes that both parties’ bases are deeply unhappy with a 2020 rematch, fueling money chasing alternatives and the creation of spoiler third-party options.

Notable Quotes

• “We're being told to be enthusiastic about Ron DeSantis, but nobody is enthusiastic about Ron DeSantis.”
  — Evan Osnos (06:09)

• “The Trump voters seem to want to prefer Trump to the fake Trump.”
  — Susan Glasser (05:06)

• “If Donald Trump manages to get elected president and takes office at a time when he is still on trial... the Justice Department... will find themselves actually serving as a part of his defense almost overnight.”
  — Evan Osnos (23:29)

• “His [Trump’s] big takeaway in coming out of his first term was that his failure... was of personnel and of people, and that he won't make those mistakes again.”
  — Susan Glasser (30:34)

• “It's a kind of terrifying image of a game plan for a dictatorship, really, or at least a demagogue who could take power.”
  — Jane Mayer (29:16)

• “It's been, to mix the metaphors, American politics these last few years, it's been a series of own goals over and over and over again. Forget about foreign adversaries. We're our own worst enemy.”
  — Susan Glasser (40:31)

Key Moments and Timestamps

• 03:35 – DeSantis campaign finances and faltering momentum
• 05:57 – The “candidate problem” with DeSantis, Fox News fatigue
• 08:28 – Establishment’s push for Tim Scott and its limitations
• 13:06 – Chris Christie’s anti-Trump candidacy and its media traction
• 16:56 – Significance of Trump’s impending January 6th indictment
• 22:04 – The practical chaos of scheduling Trump’s many trials
• 24:07 – Timing: Trump may secure nomination before trials conclude
• 27:58 – Discussion of plans for a more authoritarian Trump second term
• 35:01 – The No Labels third-party movement: risks, skepticism, and likely futility
• 39:03 – Underlying dissatisfaction fueling volatility for 2024 election

Conclusion

The episode closes with the panel somberly reflecting on the historic stakes of the 2024 race, the mounting evidence that both major parties are failing to provide a candidate who satisfies the public, and the real possibility that American democracy could face a test unlike any in its history. With Trump’s legal troubles intertwined with his campaign and new threats to checks and balances looming, the panel warns that the nation is careening toward a crisis fueled as much by its own political dysfunction as by individual actors.