Podcast Summary: The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: What Putin Hopes to Get at His Helsinki Summit with Trump
Date: July 12, 2018
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Susan Glasser

Overview

This episode explores the political tensions and strategic implications ahead of Donald Trump's upcoming Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin. Dorothy Wickenden and Susan Glasser dissect Trump's recent confrontational behavior with NATO allies, his persistent pursuit of a meeting with Putin, and what both leaders might hope to achieve. The conversation offers rich context on Trump’s foreign policy style, Putin’s motivations, and the anxieties this summit generates among U.S. officials.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Trump's NATO Performance and Messaging to Putin

• Trump’s Strategy:

  • Trump’s antagonistic behavior at the NATO summit in Brussels was seen as strategic, possibly meant to impress or appease Putin by weakening Western unity.
  • Quote: “He has had a consistent pattern of attacking, tweaking, criticizing, even in very personal terms America’s allies, while at the same time speaking very admiringly, as you know, of adversaries or would-be adversaries like Putin, like China’s Xi Jinping, Turkey’s Erdogan.” – Susan Glasser (02:29)

• Personal Dynamics with Merkel:

  • Trump opened the Brussels meeting with a public attack on Germany, accusing it of being “bought and paid for by Russia” due to the Nord Stream pipeline.
  • Merkel responded forcefully, referencing her East German upbringing:
    • “Hey, I know what it’s like to be dominated by Russia. I grew up in East Germany. Message being very clear. Don’t you lecture me, Donald Trump, about what it is to be under Russia’s thumb.” – Susan Glasser (05:01)

How the Putin Summit Was Set in Motion

• Trump’s Initiative:

  • Despite internal opposition, Trump personally invited Putin to a summit after the Russian leader’s re-election in March 2018, even suggesting a White House visit (05:21).
  • The White House did not publicize the invitation, but Russian officials soon made the news public to highlight Trump’s overture (05:45).

• Persistent Trump Themes:

  • Trump's approach—undermining alliances, complimenting adversaries—has been consistent, not chaotic.
  • Quote: “Trump is often shocking, but he’s rarely surprising...He loves one-on-one meetings. He’s been obsessed with Putin from the very beginning.” – Susan Glasser (07:47)

Trump’s Worldview Versus Traditional U.S. Policy

• Great Power Politics:

  • Trump sees global relations in “great power” terms—favoring deals among dominant nations over multilateral democratic cooperation.
  • Quote: “He kind of believes in a 19th century, realpolitik world where the big tough guys—Russia, China, and the United States—would get together and carve up the world to their liking ... and that’s very much like Vladimir Putin’s worldview.” – Susan Glasser (08:35)

• Rule by Provocation:

  • Trump frequently uses threats and challenges with both allies and adversaries, hoping to force concessions.

• Spin Over Substance:

  • Glasser challenges the notion that Trump’s meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un was a diplomatic success, noting the absence of real concessions from Pyongyang (09:48).

Putin’s Goals at Helsinki

• Restoring Status:

  • Putin aims above all “to be taken seriously, to restore [Russia’s] status as a great power,” especially after sanctions and isolation stemming from the 2014 annexation of Crimea (13:00).
  • Quote: “Putin wants Russia more than anything to be taken seriously, to restore its status as a great power in the world. Which goes back to my point about why he sees the breakup of the Soviet empire essentially as this enormous calamity that it’s his mission in politics to [rectify].” – Susan Glasser (13:00)

• Loathing of NATO:

  • For years, Putin’s main grievance in meetings with U.S. presidents has been the perceived Western hostility embodied by NATO (13:47).

• Concrete Aims:

  • Lifting of sanctions and being welcomed back to international forums like the G7 are top Russian priorities. Trump has already signaled a willingness to consider some of these requests (14:23).

The Role and Limits of Trump’s Advisors

• Hardliner Advisors (Pompeo, Bolton):

  • Despite Pompeo and Bolton’s hawkish rhetoric on Russia, Trump dictates policy; they have little influence on his desire to “make nice” with Putin (15:32).
  • Both men disagree with Trump’s trade war and Russia approach but go along to avoid being sidelined or dismissed (16:23).

• Lack of Preparation:

  • There is minimal substantive preparation for the Helsinki summit. Unlike previous high-level summits, there’s no agreed-upon agenda or principal policy coordination.
  • Quote: “There was just one trip there. Any of the normal summit preparation, either with the Russians or inside the US Government has not happened...They are not prepared to do anything other than have Trump show up and wing it with Vladimir Putin.” – Susan Glasser (17:19)

Worries About U.S. Interests and National Security

• Concerns Over “Wing-It” Diplomacy:

  • U.S. national security officials fear that Trump could unilaterally concede on issues like sanctions or NATO exercises (14:23, 17:19).

• Substantive Outcomes Unlikely:

  • Glasser notes that, unlike past summits, there are no significant negotiations or policy arrangements in play, only vague promises to “raise issues,” such as Russian interference.
  • Quote: “It’s not really a substantive agenda that’s worth bringing the leaders of the United States and Russia together for, just to have them say, well, gee, we shouldn’t interfere in each other's elections.” – Susan Glasser (19:08)

Notable Quotes

• On Trump’s Foreign Policy Consistency:

  • “Trump is often shocking, but he’s rarely surprising.”
    — Susan Glasser (07:47)

• On Trump’s Worldview:

  • “He kind of believes in a 19th century, realpolitik world where the big tough guys—Russia, China, and the United States—would get together and carve up the world...”
    — Susan Glasser (08:35)

• Merkel’s Retort to Trump:

  • “Hey, I know what it’s like to be dominated by Russia. I grew up in East Germany.”
    — Susan Glasser relaying Merkel’s statement (05:01)

• On Summit Preparation:

  • “They are not prepared to do anything other than have Trump show up and wing it with Vladimir Putin.”
    — Susan Glasser (17:19)

• Putin’s Motivation:

  • “Putin wants Russia more than anything to be taken seriously, to restore its status as a great power in the world.”
    — Susan Glasser (13:00)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump on Putin: 01:36
• Trump’s NATO behavior, targeting Merkel: 02:29 – 05:01
• Origins of the Putin summit: 05:21 – 07:08
• Trump’s worldview and tendencies: 08:23 – 09:48
• Putin’s history and objectives: 12:03 – 14:14
• Trump’s national security team and their limits: 15:14 – 17:04
• Lack of summit preparation: 17:19
• Concerns for U.S. policy outcomes: 19:03 – 20:06

Closing

The episode foregrounds significant anxiety and uncertainty about the Helsinki summit, highlighting Trump’s personal diplomatic style, his unpredictable yet consistent approach to foreign rivals, and the challenge this poses for U.S. interests. Glasser’s analysis underscores how Trump’s actions break with decades of American policy and how both Trump and Putin bring a transactional, power-centric vision to their interaction—one fraught with implications for the broader Western alliance and the world order.