Why We Underestimated COVID-19

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Why We Underestimated COVID-19"

Podcast: The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Episode Date: April 6, 2020
Host/Moderator: Maria Konnikova
Guest: Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize-winning economist and cognitive psychologist)
Theme: Exploring why both individuals and leaders struggled to grasp the magnitude and risks of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in its early stages, through the lens of cognitive psychology and risk perception.

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Episode Overview

This episode features Maria Konnikova in conversation with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, renowned for his research on human behavior and decision-making. Together, they delve into the psychological and cognitive reasons why many, including leaders and experts, initially underestimated the threat of COVID-19. The discussion examines human difficulties in understanding exponential growth, the pitfalls of individual risk assessment, the need for strong leadership and clear communication, and the lasting impact of this crisis on society—particularly for older individuals.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Difficulty Grasping Exponential Growth

• Kahneman explains that exponential events are inherently challenging for human intuition:
  • "We see things doubling every two days, every three days, every four days. And people don't, certainly, including myself, don't seem to be able to think straight about exponential growth." (02:45)
• Even with expertise, Kahneman himself struggled to see the implications for his own decisions, such as traveling to France.

2. Shortcomings in Individual and Collective Risk Perception

• People tend to focus on present numbers (cases, deaths), rather than projecting into the future:
  • "People tend to be focused...on the number of casualties or cases of deaths today. And this is something that you want to warn people against." (04:22)
• Effective public response often hinges less on individual understanding and more on strong messaging and leadership.

3. The Role of Leadership and Communication

• Clear, serious communication from authorities can drive compliance even when people don’t personally feel the danger:
  • "It’s not even a matter of people making good decisions. It’s a matter of getting people to behave in a particular way, in a way that's appropriate to a state of fear when they're not actually experiencing fear." (04:48)
• Symbolic actions—like leaders maintaining social distance in public—send important cues:
  • "If they were distancing there, that would send a signal...When you see a lot of people, you know, within the wrong distance of each other...that sends a very strong signal and not a good one." (08:29)

4. Norms and Herd Behavior

• People look to the behavior of others as cues for their own actions:
  • "Here the main cue that we're getting, I think, is the behavior of other people...that is the main way I think, that risk gets communicated." (07:01)
• US culture lacked established norms for measures like mask-wearing early on.

5. The Limitations of Individual Decision-Making

• Kahneman stresses that individuals should not be expected to make nuanced risk assessments during a crisis:
  • "Individuals should make the smallest possible number of choices because they're not equipped to do it. There should be clear guidelines and clear instructions." (05:28)
• Policies should limit the burden of decision-making on individuals; ambiguity breeds poor choices.

6. Regret and Retrospective Realizations

• Kahneman admits he failed to apply his own analytical tools when deciding about travel:
  • "I completely failed to see that...if I had tried to think straight, if I had, you know, tried to write my thoughts about it...I would probably have figured it out." (09:59)

7. Outlook and Resilience

• Kahneman’s outlook is mixed:
  • On society: "For society, I'm definitely optimistic. There's no question...the economy will come out of it...ultimately life will go on." (11:38)
  • On individuals, especially the elderly: "For old people like me, the prospects are not good. I see very little reason for optimism...this is pretty much a life sentence of incarceration at home or a very long term sentence." (11:14)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Exponential Blindness:
  "I knew that there were a hundred cases in France, and I was about to fly to France. I also knew that epidemics are exponential. I didn't even consider the fact that...if the rate of infections doubles every three days, then in a month, it will be increased by a factor of 1000."
  – Daniel Kahneman (02:45)

• Leadership Signals Matter More Than Words:
  "So that kind of communication is more important than any verbal communication. And we need the appropriate emotional melody. Because when the President communicates that he really thinks that a lot of this stuff is being exaggerated, the damage that this does is really huge."
  – Daniel Kahneman (08:29)

• Individual vs. Collective Responsibility:
  "This is not individual decision making. Individuals should make the smallest possible number of choices because they're not equipped to do it. There should be clear guidelines and clear instructions."
  – Daniel Kahneman (05:28)

• Collective Cues Drive Personal Behavior:
  "That signal that other people are aware of what is happening, that is the main way I think, that risk gets communicated."
  – Daniel Kahneman (07:01)

• Societal Resilience but Individual Cost:
  "For old people like me, the prospects are not good...But society survived [in 1918]...This is not an existential danger. We'll come out of it, society will come out of it."
  – Daniel Kahneman (11:02/11:38)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Understanding Exponential Growth:
  02:45 – 03:49
• On Why Present-Day Numbers Mislead:
  04:22 – 05:17
• Necessity of Guidelines over Individual Judgement:
  05:28 – 06:08
• Norms, Herd Behavior, and the Role of Leadership:
  07:01 – 09:30
• Personal Experience and Missed Cues:
  09:35 – 10:48
• Kahneman’s Outlook for Society and Individuals:
  11:02 – 12:12

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Conclusion

This episode offers a unique window into the psychological failings that contributed to the underestimation of COVID-19's threat, even among experts. Kahneman’s candid reflections and Konnikova’s probing questions bring clarity to the limitations of individual reasoning, the power of social cues and leadership, and the pressing need for collective approaches in times of crisis. The tone is thoughtful, introspective, and at times somber—tempered by a long-term optimism grounded in historical perspective.

Transcript

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[Daniel Kahneman]

I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[Asma Khalid]

On today's Politics and More podcast, the.

[Daniel Kahneman]

New Yorker's Maria Konnikova talks to the economist Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize for his work on social economics, discusses why the threat posed by COVID 19 has proved so difficult for many to grasp.

[Narrator]

Outside of emergency rooms. It seems like many of us fail to understand this pandemic in real time to understand the seriousness of it. The Appalling fatality. Now, I'm not talking about the cynical disinformation that was spread by the President and his media allies. What I mean here is the spring breakers who seemed so oblivious to what was going on and continued partying on beaches. I'm talking about the way there were crowded city parks and crowded restaurants and bars even as the death toll began to soar. Even elected officials, leaders at all levels of government struggled to respond to the virus in a way that reflected just how serious the problem actually was and is. How and why people misunderstand and make mistakes is the life's work of Daniel Kahneman, a scholar whose Work revolutionized the field of cognitive psychology. He's the winner of the Nobel Prize and the author of Fast and Slow, a bestseller about human behavior. Maria Konnikova, who's written for the New Yorker about psychology and many other subjects, spoke to Daniel Kahneman last week.

[Daniel Kahneman]

This is an exponential event. That is, we see things doubling every two days, every three days, every four days. And people don't, certainly, including myself, don't seem to be able to think straight about exponential growth. So I was. I knew that there were a hundred cases in France, and I was about to fly to France. I also knew that epidemics are exponential. I didn't even consider the fact that if, you know, if the rate of infections doubles every three days, then in a month, it will be increased by a factor of 1000. And what we see today are infections that occurred two or three weeks ago, and the deaths of today are people who got infected four or five weeks ago. All of this is, I think, sort of beyond intuitive human comprehension. And that's interesting that we're in a situation that we're simply not equipped to understand.

[Maria Konnikova]

So I'm interested in how, then people can make decisions and can follow kind of advice, both from the personal level, like you and I, but also from the highest levels, like, if even someone like you is unable to grasp the nature of exponential growth and what it might mean. How do leaders use all of this information to make decisions? How do they think through it? How do they figure out, okay, well, what is the best way forward?

[Daniel Kahneman]

Well, people tend to be focused, and obviously that was true of President Trump as well. They tend to be focused on the number of casualties or cases of deaths today. And this is something that you want to warn people against. Don't look at what is happening today. You need to extrapolate into the future in terms of people obeying instructions. You don't need many numbers. I mean, I think that if the President said, you know, looking very serious, this is a very serious problem, and we're anticipating many casualties, People will obey. People will pay attention. It's not even a matter of people making good decisions. It's a matter of getting people to behave in a particular way, in a way that's appropriate to a state of fear when they're not actually experiencing fear.

[Maria Konnikova]

And on the individual level, is there anything that we can try to do on an individual level, psychologically to be better equipped to make these choices?

[Daniel Kahneman]

I think that this is not individual decision making. That's really the theme of the conversation from my point of view. This is not individual decision making. Individuals should make the smallest possible number of choices because they're not equipped to do it. There should be clear guidelines and clear instructions. We all ought to know whether we should open our Amazon packages outside the door or bring them in. It's not a decision that individuals should consider making on the basis of what they know, because they don't know enough to make it.

[Maria Konnikova]

Has your thinking about risk perception, has this situation actually affected it at all?

[Daniel Kahneman]

Well, you know, I'm surprised by my. Myself in a way, by my inability to grasp what is going on, by my inability to be worried at the appropriate level.

[Maria Konnikova]

You know, you can think of every time someone decides to go to the park, something like that, as kind of a gambling decision, almost gambling with your own health, gambling with the health of others. And I think a lot of the work you've done has revolved around how we evaluate the risks, the costs, the benefits of different gambles. In that sense, how do we make those evaluations? You know, how do we think through that type of calculus when we make decisions?

[Daniel Kahneman]

There is one difficulty, clearly, which is that if you view every time that you go to the supermarket as a gamble, you're not doing it quite right. I mean, it's a gamble in the same sense as wearing and not wearing seat belts is a gamble. It's a cumulative gambler. And the risk for any one behavior is very, very slight. It's adopting a pattern of behaviors that on the whole, for many people, is going to be safer. And here the main cue that we're getting, I think, is the behavior of other people. I am very struck by the change in the behavior of people in the supermarket over the last few days and that signal that other people are aware of what is happening, that is the main way I think, that risk gets communicated.

[Maria Konnikova]

That's really interesting. So you're talking a lot about kind of the norms of behavior. You know, we don't have a norm of wearing masks. We don't have kind of a norm of obeying necessarily, kind of those stricter things coming from the top. Do you think that we might need a change when it comes to that? Well, it's a difficult question.

[Daniel Kahneman]

Nobody is going to change the culture. The culture is what it is. But I'll give you an example. I don't watch much television, but I see pictures of the daily conference calls of the president. If they were distancing there, that would send a signal. When you see a lot of people, you know, within the wrong distance of each other and clearly not Taking the kind of precautions that they would like everybody else to take. That sends a very strong signal and not a good one. So that kind of communication is more important than any verbal communication. And we need the appropriate emotional melody. Because when the President communicates that he really thinks that a lot of this stuff is being exaggerated, the damage that this does is really huge.

[Maria Konnikova]

Did you end up taking your trip to France or did you not go?

[Daniel Kahneman]

You know, I hesitated to the last minute and then I decided, no, I better not take that trip. But even when I made the decision, I wasn't thinking straight. But actually I had the tools to think much more precisely about it. I didn't use those tools.

[Maria Konnikova]

Can you elaborate a little bit? What were the tools that you had, but that you didn't use the tools.

[Daniel Kahneman]

Would be to try to think what it means that a pandemic is spreading. And I completely failed to see that. Although if I had tried to think straight, if I had, you know, tried to write my thoughts about it, just to think carefully, I would probably have figured it out. But I wasn't doing this because the number of deaths at that time was small. It didn't look very worrying. And the idea that this is exactly what a pandemic looks like. I could have known, lots of people could have known, obviously whose actions were much more important than my decision of whether or not to go to Paris. A lot of preparations that should have been taken were not.

[Maria Konnikova]

Are you, I don't want this to come off wrong, but are you optimistic? Are you pessimistic? What is your kind of, what is your feeling about our ability to get through this?

[Daniel Kahneman]

You know, I mean, if you take a longer view, then of course you have to be optimistic. You know, I'm pretty sure there'll be some cure, there'll be a vaccine. And you know, even without a cure and without a vaccine in 1918, so, you know, millions of people died, but society survived. For old people like me, the prospects are not good. I see very little reason for optimism. I mean, you know, at the best, I would say for the older among us, you know, this is pretty much a life sentence of incarceration at home or a very long term sentence. This is going to change the rest of our life. So for society, I'm definitely optimistic. There's no question, I think this is not an existential danger. We'll come out of it, Society will come out of it. The economy will come out of it. It could take several years, but ultimately life will go on.

[Narrator]

Daniel Kahneman is professor emeritus at Princeton, and he's the author of Fast and Sleep Slow and other books. Maria Konnikova is the author of the Confidence Game and the forthcoming the Biggest Bluff How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win.

[Asma Khalid]

America is changing, and so is the world.

[Maria Konnikova]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Maria Konnikova]

Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Daniel Kahneman]

From.

[Maria Konnikova]

PRX.