The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Will the Summer of Trump Indictments Shake Up the Election?

Date: August 18, 2023
Panelists: Jane Mayer (Host), Susan B. Glasser, Evan Osnos

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Jane Mayer alongside Susan B. Glasser and Evan Osnos, delves into the extraordinary summer marked by four criminal indictments against Donald Trump and explores the political ramifications as the 2024 presidential election looms. The conversation dissects the unique features of the Georgia case, Trump’s resilience in polling, possible disruptions to the campaign, “known unknowns,” and how external events might still reshape the race. Through rich analogies, historic parallels, and sharp political analysis, the episode examines not only the legal jeopardy facing Trump but also the structural realities and wildcards that could alter the electoral landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Sets the Georgia Indictment Apart?

• Broader Scope and Unpardonable Offenses
  • The Georgia indictment is distinct because, unlike federal charges, it cannot be nullified by a presidential pardon (since it originates from state court).
  • It features a racketeering conspiracy against Trump and many associates, making it wide-ranging and comprehensive ([03:36]).
• Televised Trials and Spectacle
  • Georgia proceedings are likely to be televised, unlike federal cases, potentially creating an O.J. Simpson-like national spectacle during the election year.
    • Susan Glasser:

      “It’s very likely to be televised. And that is an enormous difference … is this going to be a spectacle a la O.J. Simpson?” ([05:44])

2. Indictments: Threat or Asset for Trump?

• Boost Among Republican Base
  • Trump’s narrative of victimhood amid indictments seems to boost his popularity within the GOP; recent polls show his support climbing after each indictment ([06:02]–[07:30]).
  • Evan Osnos:

    “Trump has been saying quite confidently that every new indictment helps him ... There was a poll … that shows that 7 in 10 Republicans are now in favor of Donald Trump. That is up from 60% about.” ([06:04])

• Lessons from Berlusconi
  • Comparison to Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, who turned persistent prosecution into a badge of honor with his supporters ([07:00]).
    • Notable quote from Osnos, citing journalist Sandro Stilla:

      “Berlusconi harvested this underlying sense of distrust … People arguing, ‘Why does Berlusconi have 20 indictments and the other guy doesn’t even have one?’” ([07:32])

3. Racial Dynamics and the “Reverse O.J.” Fear

• Potential for Racialized Backlash
  • The panel discusses anxieties that televised Georgia proceedings could provoke white grievance politics, framing Trump as a target of the justice system’s supposed bias ([08:30]).
    • Jane Mayer:

      “You’ve got a Black prosecutor, and two of the most important characters … are Shay and her mother, Ruby Freeman, who were election officials who were Black. … There may be the ingredients here for a reverse O.J. Simpson kind of dynamic where you would have … white racial grievance coming out of this.” ([08:30])

4. Legal and Political Timing

• Trials Unlikely Before the Primaries
  • Major court proceedings are expected to stretch beyond the Republican primary schedule; most voters will have cast ballots before any verdict is in ([09:32]–[11:22]).
    • Susan Glasser:

      “Millions and millions of voters are already gonna be casting their ballots when the vast majority of these cases are either still ongoing or have yet to actually begin in a courtroom.” ([09:44])

• Entrenchment and Polarization
  • Even clear-cut convictions may not sway the GOP base but would dramatically deepen divisions ([11:56]):

    “People get very invested in their teams … The idea that people would invest themselves and in fact double down in their embrace of a man who’s been accused of serious criminal misconduct, that strikes at the heart of the democracy.” ([11:56])

5. “Known Unknowns” and Wildcards for 2024

• Age and Health of Candidates
  • Both Trump and Biden are advanced in age. Unexpected health events could force one or both parties into chaotic succession (“known unknowns”) ([17:09]–[19:44]).
    • Evan Osnos:

      “If you took Biden out of this, we’d all be talking about Trump’s age. That if he has a moment in which he starts to look old, … that has a political slingshot effect that's stronger.” ([18:14])

• What If Trump or Biden Withdraws?
  • Panel speculates on Republican and Democratic alternatives if either frontrunner becomes incapacitated or leaves the race, with Kamala Harris or a free-for-all likely for Democrats, and a weak GOP field outside Trump ([21:08]–[24:03]).
    • Susan Glasser:

      “They all seem to be standing around either waiting for the vice presidential nod or just waiting to survive long enough in case Donald Trump isn't the guy.” ([23:48])

6. The Hunter Biden Factor

• Potential Distraction and Political Risk
  • A surprise reversal in Hunter Biden’s legal case could echo the Clinton-Comey October 2016 surprise, acting as an “ill-timed reversal” that affects campaign momentum ([24:29]–[27:25]).
    • Susan Glasser:

      “Once you also unlock a special counsel process … think back to the Bill Clinton era … that begat the Monica Lewinsky investigation, that begat his impeachment.” ([25:52])

7. The Power of Media Moments and External Shocks

• “Lightning Bolt” Moments
  • Panel notes that campaign-altering gaffes or viral moments (e.g., Dukakis in a helmet, Access Hollywood) rarely alter the landscape unless underlying weakness exists ([27:45]–[28:53]).
    • Evan Osnos:

      “What is the impact of one of these lightning bolt moments is it tends to not transform the contours of a campaign so much as X-ray it and magnify what has already happened.” ([28:44])

• True Unknowns: Financial Crisis, War, AI, and Deepfakes
  • A global financial crisis, horrifying escalation in Ukraine, or “AI-generated” fake content could profoundly reshape the election context ([29:00]–[32:39]).
    • Jane Mayer:

      “Listening to Susan, the American public is set in its divisions … It’s because we have two fully evolved media ecosystems that will filter any kind of issue through their own side.” ([30:25])

    • Evan Osnos:

      “It's a particularly modern artifact, which is the role that leaked recordings or doctored or created media products could play in this process ... It could be child's play in an era in which you can essentially generate something very fast, and it would take a while to figure out what's real and not real.” ([31:16])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Evan Osnos on populist reaction to indictments:

  “In some ways, the threat is the asset when your entire campaign presents you as a victim.” ([06:02])

• Jane Mayer on the possible ‘reverse O.J. Simpson’ effect:

  “There may be the ingredients here for a reverse O.J. Simpson kind of dynamic where you would have racial grievance in the other way, white racial grievance coming out of this.” ([08:30])

• Susan Glasser on structural division:

  “Millions of Republicans would choose him anyways. And I just think that's a recipe for further division and clash and at a minimum, enormous uncertainty.” ([10:54])

• Evan Osnos on party reckoning:

  “The only way you eradicate this virus from the party is by losing, losing over and over and over again.” ([13:28])

• Susan Glasser on AI and deepfakes:

  “All of that kind of stuff could be child's play in an era in which you can essentially generate something very fast, and it would take a while to figure out what's real and not real.” ([31:16])

Important Timestamps

• [02:55] – Setting up the episode theme: the summer of Trump indictments.
• [03:36] – Susan Glasser on why Georgia’s indictment is different and its implications.
• [06:02] – Evan Osnos explains how indictments have boosted Trump’s support.
• [08:30] – Jane Mayer on racial dynamics in the upcoming televised trial.
• [09:32] – Division already present, regardless of trial outcomes.
• [17:09] – Discussion starts on “known unknowns” and wildcards.
• [19:44] – What happens if Biden or Trump must withdraw?
• [24:29] – The Hunter Biden investigation and parallels to Clinton-Comey.
• [27:45] – Lightning bolt political moments and their real impact.
• [29:00] – External events: recession, war, AI, and the dual-media reality.
• [31:16] – Risks posed by AI, fake content, and media manipulation.

Tone and Style

The conversation balances deep political insight with a conversational, at times irreverent, New Yorker tone. The analysts challenge each other’s assumptions, draw on history, and bring both granular knowledge and big-picture perspective to a political moment they agree is both disruptive and deeply uncertain.

Conclusion

While Donald Trump faces unprecedented legal jeopardy and the prospect of unprecedented campaign/trial overlap, the panel finds little evidence that the indictments alone will upset his command of the Republican race. Still, they warn that a combination of structural polarization, unpredictable events, new technologies, and unforeseen scandals means the 2024 election remains fraught with risks, both for democracy itself and the basic functions of party politics. External shocks—some familiar, some novel—may still upend even the most entrenched assumptions.