Podcast
The Pomp Letter
Hosted by Anthony Pompliano · EN
Audio edition of Pomp's daily newsletter where he shares his analysis on the latest in business, finance, the economy, and bitcoin.
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These AI Agents Want To Help You Make Money
Apr 700:02:39Tap to summarizeTo investors,The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:* 3 Stocks That Win From Both Tariff Refunds and the Iran Oil Shock* Stocks to Buy for Kevin Warsh’s Fed Regime* Insiders Are Dumping Tech Stocks and Buying Energy* 5 Stocks That Win From $166 Billion in Tariff RefundsYou can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.We will keep building even more. Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right NowJordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.Podcast Sponsors* Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.* Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.* Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe
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My 10 Takeaways From Bitcoin Investor Week
Feb 1600:04:04Tap to summarizeToday’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees on your first transaction.To investors,I hosted Bitcoin Investor Week in New York City last week. Thousands of investors attended to hear from more than 45 speakers or meet new people at the various side events and happy hours. Conversations ranged from understanding the recent drawdown in bitcoin’s price to underwriting the odds of deflation to unpacking the convergence of artificial intelligence and bitcoin.Here are the major takeaways that I had from the week:* Bitcoin investors have been here before — many investors have previously held bitcoin through numerous drawdowns of 50% or more, so there was a lack of panic that was noticeable throughout the event. Multiple members of the media explicitly called this out to me as well. This lack of panic gives me the idea that odds are higher that the current bear market will be shallower and shorter than historical comparisons. * Institutions have arrived — past bitcoin conferences were filled with promises of institutions on the way. The conversation this year was centered around the progress that institutions have made in bitcoin, including the highly successful launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, the various public companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheet, the accelerated adoption of digital credit, the fast growth of stablecoins, the current initiatives in tokenization, and the requirement that each legacy financial organization have a bitcoin or crypto strategy.* Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are on a collision course — it was nearly impossible to have a conversation with a professional investor or an entrepreneur without both technologies coming up. It is obvious that bitcoin and AI are the future of finance. There was plenty of speculation on how AI agents will transact or store value, so naturally bitcoin and stablecoins were the popular answers. * Deflation is a big risk — my personal view is that deflationary pressure from tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics are swallowing the US economy. I asked many speakers or attendees whether they agreed and the majority of answers were aligned with my view. There are some outstanding concerns about the economic data or the government’s continued money printing, but overall people seemed satisfied that high inflation was not going to be a problem in the short-term.* Financial advisors are holding or adding bitcoin to portfolios — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explained that a recent survey showed that 99% of financial advisors who already had client assets in bitcoin were either “holding” or “adding” based on the recent price drawdown. That data suggests the RIA channel is convinced of the long-term return potential of the asset, which creates sticky capital from their clients.* Institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs are not selling — Blackrock’s Robert Mitchnick explained that majority of the institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs have been holding their exposure during the bitcoin drawdown. He sees continued demand from Blackrock clients and believes there is considerable more room for growth in the ETF allocations.* Stablecoins are not going away — multiple speakers explained that stablecoin growth has been impressive, but the more important data point is how ingrained stablecoins are becoming in legacy institutions’ strategies. It feels like stablecoins are the third crypto product to find true product-market fit after bitcoin and crypto exchanges. * No one wants to call “bottom” yet — the price of bitcoin may be down 50%, yet there were not many takers when I asked various folks to claim the market had bottomed. People are cautious because it seems the past scars of previous bear markets has forced them to prepare for an even more significant drop in price. * All eyes are on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — the consensus feeling about the SBR is happiness that it was put together, but disappointment that the government has not purchased more bitcoin. If the market needs a new catalyst to rally higher, purchases for the SBR could be a simple way to ignite the end of the bear market.* Nothing stops this train — there was not a single person I spoke with at the conference who believes the US government can balance the budget, stop printing money, or lower the national debt. The widespread belief is that assets that benefit from debasement (bitcoin/gold/real estate/etc) will do very well over the next decade, especially as the current administration runs the economy hot and drives economic growth.I really enjoyed putting together Bitcoin Investor Week. We will be posting many of the on-stage interviews on our main YouTube channel. You can watch my conversations with Dan Ives and Jordi Visser already. If you subscribe to the channel, you will get updated on each conversation we release for the next two weeks or so.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.- Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementThe Bitcoin Rotation No One Sees ComingJordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this episode, we break down why software stocks are losing their moats, how AI is driving deflation, and why capital is rotating toward scarce assets. We explore hyperscalers, data centers, AI agents, and why bitcoin may emerge as the only true growth asset in a world of abundant intelligence.Podcast Sponsors* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.* Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com* Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.* Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in ...
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Introducing The World's First Publicly Traded Agentic Finance Firm
Feb 900:03:49Tap to summarizeThe world's first publicly traded agentic finance firm, including 5,000+ bitcoin on the balance sheet. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe
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The Three-Headed Deflation Monster: Tariffs, AI, and Robotics
Feb 200:05:42Tap to summarizeToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,There is a national crisis unfolding in the US economy, but it isn’t the type of crisis you got used to over the last few years. Rather than the persistent risk of high inflation driven by out of control government spending, the economy is being swallowed by an expansive deflationary force.This new risk is dangerous because it requires humans to update their mental models to be able to identify, understand, and mitigate it. And we know humans are horrible about changing their mind, especially when it requires them to synthesize new information.First, let’s discuss where the challenges lie in identifying this deflation risk. There is a past experience issue and a modern data error that is driving the problem. The past experience issue is that an entire generation finally capitulated in recent years after realizing that undisciplined government spending led to higher levels of inflation. These folks failed to see the cause and effect coming out of the global financial crisis and they only took the lesson to heart after the pandemic era insanity that drove inflation over 9% in the government’s data.The folks in this cohort are now trained to look at government spending and conclude that inflation will rise if the national debt is increasing. That was true in the past, but it is not true right now, which is why I call it a “past experience issue.” People are looking at the inputs, but not thinking critically about what that means for modern outputs.The second big issue is a modern data error. Most of the “experts” and mainstream reporters are still relying on the Bureau of Labor Statistics to tell them what the inflation reading is. It doesn’t matter that the BLS is estimating more than 40% of the CPI inputs, nor does it matter that the BLS continues to manipulate the data collection by leveraging unproven and discredited methods.These people simply believe whatever the government says.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting inflation to be 2.7% year-over-year. But compare that number to Truflation, which is reporting inflation under 0.9% as of yesterday.This is a very wide gap in the metrics. In fact, the most concerning part is that the BLS is saying inflation is almost 50% higher than the Fed’s stated target, yet Truflation is saying inflation is more than 50% lower than the Fed’s stated target.The sky can’t be blue and green at the same time, nor can inflation be high and low simultaneously either.It is no secret that I trust the Truflation data much more than the BLS. Truflation uses more than 14 million daily data points provided by over 40 independent data providers. I’ll take the real-time, verifiable metric over the lagging, estimated metric any day of the week.But this brings us back to the most important question in the economy today…why is inflation falling if the government is continuing to print money like drunken sailors?This is where the deflationary force swallowing the US economy comes in.There are three main contributors in my mind:* Tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary. I know this is still heavily debated, but I continue to explain that tariffs bring down domestic prices over time and they change consumer demand trends. There are anecdotal businesses that will show their input costs are rising, which is then being passed on to the consumer, but those anecdotes are heavily outweighed by the aggregate impact of tariffs on the US economy.* Artificial intelligence is the largest deflationary force of our lifetime. Companies are literally bragging on a daily basis how they are being more productive with less employees. The industry is moving so fast that it is hard for most people to keep up and the economic incentive to adopt this technology is only going to get larger. Lastly, A.I. is now in the “exponential production” phase where A.I. is writing code, so we are no longer limited by human time and energy.* Robotics is a subset of the A.I. story, but it deserves its own call out. It is very obvious that self-driving cars are going to be cheaper and safer, so they will become the standard. Companies like Amazon are the perfect example…the e-commerce giant employs 1 million robots and 1.5 million humans. They are reportedly looking to replace 500,000 jobs with robots in the coming years, which means they will soon have more robots working at the company than humans. This is highly deflationary. This is the three-headed monster: tariffs, artificial intelligence, and robotics.It doesn’t matter how much money the government prints, the elected officials literally can’t spend enough money to negate the deflationary forces that are swallowing the US economy. And yes, that would have been an insane statement just 3 years ago, but today it is the reality.New information means you have to change your mind.Finally, this brings us to the important question of what should we do from here?Now that inflation is under 1%, it is obvious that the Fed should do an emergency 50 basis point cut. They don’t have the luxury of waiting longer. Artificial intelligence is accelerating, which means the deflationary force is only going to get stronger and more pervasive.You can think of this as a virus. Once it was unleashed, it cannot be contained and it will not slow down. The only thing we can do is address the threat using other measures within our control.Companies and people are economically incentivized to use A.I. more. The A.I. tools are starting to exponentially produce more A.I. products and services (ex: Claude Code writing 100% of the code for Claude Cowork, etc). Google “exponential curve” if you want to see how fast this will compound.There needs to be an immediate, aggressive rate cut by the Fed or they risk a deflationary situation.Consumer prices of various goods will come down, which is a positive outcome for the average American in the short-term, but wages can fall, unemployment can rise, debt can become more burdensome, and there is a potential for a deflationary spiral.We need a 50 basis point emergency rate cut. Again, I know this will sound crazy to some of you, but I implore you to ask yourself “do I still believe that inflation has to happen if the government is spending money? Do I understand the effects of artificial intelligence, tariffs, and robotics on prices of goods and services? Am I willing to bet a material part of my net worth on assets that can only succeed if inflation is higher than normal?”If the answer to any of those questions is “maybe” or “no,” then you have work to do. Spend the time this week learning about these things. Start by asking your favorite LLM to explain these topics and issues to you like a 5-year old. Even better, connect your accounts to Silvia and have her tell you what would happen in a deflationary environment or if the US government runs the economy hot.Almost no one could have predicted the economy running hot without inflation, but here we are. High-growth, low-inflation. The dream of every politician and central banker in the world.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.- Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin vs Gold vs Stocks: The Chart Everyone MissesJordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we unpack the Federal Reserve rate pause, the case for a more forward-looking Fed, and how rapidly advancing AI is reshaping inflation vs. deflation expectations. We also explore the scarcity trade across bitcoin, silver, energy, and semiconductors—and how investors can think about positioning as physical constraints collide with abundant software.Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.* Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. Visit<a target="_...
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The Fed Has Lost Control: Supply-Side Economics Are The Captain Now
Jan 2600:04:16Tap to summarizeToday’s Episode is brought to you by Figure!Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC.Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime1.To investors,If you listened to the Fed for the last few decades, you made a lot of money. When the Fed was easing, you could have just plowed your money into the market. When the Fed started tightening, all you had to do was sell everything and hide in cash for a few years.Investors have been yelling “don’t fight the Fed” for a long time.But I don’t think that old adage applies the same way anymore. At least it doesn’t apply right now. Let me explain…The US economy, and corresponding financial markets, have been hyper sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions for the last ~ 30 years. The central bank was cutting rates in the mid-to-late 1990s, which helped propel the internet boom higher. Finally, when the Fed started to raise rates in the second half of 1999, the tech bubble popped shortly afterwards and everything came back down to reality.During the Global Financial Crisis, the Fed invented the insane Quantitative Easing policy that led to a prolonged period of 0% interest rates and hundreds of billions of dollars bring printed. This QE playbook kicked off a decade-long bull market that made every stock market bear look like a fool.Finally, during the 2020 pandemic, the Federal Reserve pulled out the old QE playbook again. Interest rates went to 0% via two emergency cuts and the government decided to print trillions of dollars, which created more than 9% inflation within a 24-month period.The main thing that stopped the 2021 party was the Fed’s decision to reverse course and start hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history. We went from 0% to over 5% rates in a very short period of time. The regime shift was so abrupt that multiple banks failed because of their inability to navigate the volatility.This brings us back to the “don’t fight the Fed” adage. It made sense because the Federal Reserve would set policy and the world would react to those decisions. Quite literally, the Fed was in control.That doesn’t seem to be the case right now though.The current President and his administration have effectively taken control of the US economy and financial markets. They have implemented a set of policies to reimagine the country, including deregulation, tax cuts, smaller government, and re-shoring of American jobs and manufacturing.In taking this approach, the government is rapidly changing the economic conditions of the market and it is putting the Fed on their back foot. The central bankers already had a hard enough time trying to make monetary policy decisions based on faulty data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now these folks are being asked to understand substantial changes across the economy, including policy differences and advancements in cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence.This is why I don’t believe the Fed is in control anymore. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. The market is forcing the hand of the Fed. America’s central bank begrudgingly cut interest rates at the end of 2025 because the labor market was softening at a much faster pace than forecasted. The softness in the labor market was not due to normal business cycle developments, but rather a combination of policy decisions and technology innovation.Jerome Powell essentially said he and his colleagues were more worried about the labor market than about inflation coming back. But the Fed’s fight against the market is not over yet. My base case is that inflation is going to continue falling in the coming months.Truflation is reporting inflation at 1.2% as of last night. If you take the BLS’ methodology, and you replace the ~ 40% of inputs that are estimations with accurate measurements of the input goods, then Truflation shows inflation would be less than 1% year-over-year.The big takeaway from this situation, according to Truflation, is that inflation has collapsed from its recent peak, dropping 151 basis points in just three months.Truflation’s real-time data, which is sourced from over 14 million daily price points across 40+ independent providers, captures this deceleration far faster than traditional metrics, revealing a pricing environment that’s shifted decisively toward disinflation. For investors, this signals a fundamental reset in cost pressures that official data will only confirm weeks later.So what is my big takeaway from this situation?The Federal Reserve has lost control of the economy. They are serving at the pleasure of market forces now. The labor market is weakening, inflation is falling aggressively, artificial intelligence is a very real deflationary force, and productivity is booming thanks to the deregulation, tax cuts, and reshoring.It does not matter what the Fed thinks they should do right now. The old playbook is out the window. We have supply-side economics taking over. We are seeing high-growth and low-inflation. The Fed is having their hand forced. They need to cut interest rates by about 100 basis points in the next few months, but they also will have to participate in the timeless act of printing more money.The US economy may be booming, yet the inflation data is telling us that we could have a major problem on our hands if the Fed doesn’t stimulate more economic activity. For the trigger happy Fed, this should be their Super Bowl. Cut rates and let the economy fly.Hopefully the great people at our central bank are paying attention.Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone next time.- Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital Management🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially a few weeks out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon.🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.comBitcoin vs Silver: The Ultimate Rotation Is Happening Right NowJordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. This was recorded live at the Real Vision 2026 Crypto Gathering. In this conversation, we discuss the scarcity trade across markets, bitcoin’s potential short squeeze, silver’s role as a critical industrial metal, and the inflation vs. deflation debate. We also explore how AI, robotics, and productivity shifts could reshape markets in the years ahead.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check outFigure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.* Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com* Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies i...
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Fed Chairman Under Fire: Taxpayer-Funded Luxury, DOJ Subpoenas, and Jerome Powell’s Defense
Jan 1200:06:29Tap to summarizeToday’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,News broke last night that the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over comments he made while testifying about renovations to the Federal Reserve building.This development comes after months of disagreement about monetary policy between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. Before we get into what is likely to happen with this investigation and how it will impact the market, I want to remind everyone of the context.Background on Powell’s previous commentsThe investigation centers on whether Powell made false or misleading statements to Congress during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025. This testimony addressed the Federal Reserve’s ongoing multi-year renovation project for its headquarters buildings in Washington, D.C., which is estimated to cost around $2.5 billion and has experienced significant cost overruns (reportedly around $600-700 million).Key points of contention include:* Powell allegedly denied or downplayed the inclusion of certain luxury or non-essential features in the final project plans, such as private elevators, premium marble, water features/fountains, a VIP dining room, a rooftop terrace garden, and other upgrades.* These features appeared in earlier project documents submitted to bodies like the National Capital Planning Commission, but Powell stated during testimony that many had been removed or were not part of the current scope, attributing cost increases to factors like inflation in materials/labor, asbestos removal, soil contamination, and accessibility requirements.* Critics (including some Republican lawmakers and Trump administration figures) claim these statements were inaccurate or deceptive, potentially constituting perjury or false statements to Congress.The probe announced last night involves analyzing Powell’s public statements (including the congressional testimony), reviewing spending records, and other documents related to the renovation.An important point is that the renovation was reportedly approved in November 2025 by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro (a Trump appointee). Prosecutors have contacted Powell’s staff for documents, and on Friday, January 9, 2026, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a potential criminal indictment tied to the June testimony.Powell’s responseAfter the New York Times broke the story of the investigation, Jerome Powell released a video message defending his actions and calling into question the motivation behind the investigation. Powell said:“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings… Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”There are a few takeaways I had from this response. First, Powell posted a video response to the allegations within minutes of the New York Times report being published. That seems highly suspicious. It takes time to create a script, record a video, edit the video, and get it posted online. The Federal Reserve is not exactly known as a world class content creator, so my guess is that the Fed or Powell are the ones who leaked the investigation to the media.There is nothing wrong with that decision per se, but it does beg the question of why would the Fed or Powell want to create a flame war in the public eye? I don’t know the answer. I suspect we will get answers later that provide clarity in hindsight.Second, the response seemed much more focused on the argument “this is political!” than denying the allegations. I have learned over time that the more someone yells about something, the more likely they are hiding something about it. As one user on X said, the response can usually tell you more than the initial accusation.This means that Powell is probably more political than most people realize. I wouldn’t blame him. The President and the administration have been pressuring him for months. It is human nature to dislike someone attacking you or to want to get revenge. It wouldn’t make the decision to succumb to politics the right decision, but it is understandable how humans get into these situations. The Federal Reserve renovationsIn order to understand what is happening with the Federal Reserve renovations, you have to ignore the noise and go to the source material. I spent the morning digging through the National Capital Planning Commission’s materials on previous meetings and current plans for this renovation.Here is how they describe the project: “The Federal Reserve Board is proposing to renovate and expand the Eccles Building and the FRB-East Building to address a critical backlog of upgrades; respond to changes in building codes and regulatory requirements, accommodate information technology requirements, building security provisions, advancements in environmental awareness and energy efficiency; and address increased utility demands and associated requirements imposed by an increased building population.”The big controversy in these renovations is how expensive everything has become. The Fed was originally going to spend approximately $1.9 billion, which would have been fairly absurd by itself, but the costs have now ballooned to an estimated $3.1 billion due to delays and cost overruns.These are renderings of the renovations being done:One of the problems here is that the Federal Reserve is using taxpayer money to make these renovations. This is objectively insane. Half of the population is complaining about being unable to afford a normal life, plus the country is broke and in trillions of dollars of debt, yet the central bank is lavishly spending on a castle fit for a king.Compare this to the White House ballroom that has been announced. The ballroom is being funded through private donations and allegedly will not use public taxpayer money. So regardless of the political nature of this whole thing, the American people should get an answer as to why their tax dollars are being used for this wasteful situation.Potential impact going forwardMy guess is the revelation last night is not going to change anyone’s mind in politics. If you liked Trump before the weekend, you are going to defend the DOJ’s actions. You will argue there should be a full investigation on whether the Fed Chairman lied to Congress.That doesn’t seem unreasonable to ensure no one is above the law.If you did not like Trump before the weekend, you are going to condemn this development as being unhelpful to the country’s long-term success. That doesn’t seem unreasonable either.See, this is the thing about controversial current events…usually both sides have a hint of truth to them. In this case, Powell should be held accountable if he misled Congress. We should also be very concerned if the legal system is being weaponized by any administration, regardless of political party.The hard part about coming to a conclusion on this situation is that we don’t yet have all the information. I am reserving the right to make up my mind at a later date when we have that information. The only thing I feel strongly about at the moment is the egregious wasting of taxpayer money to fund the unnecessarily lavish renovations of an office building.The United States and its leaders need to get serious about stopping waste, fraud, and abuse. Sometimes those issues are hiding in daycares in Minnesota and other times they may be hiding in plain sight in Washington DC.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time. - Anthony J. PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital Management🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announ...
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The 4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Did Not Perform Well In 2025
Jan 500:05:21Tap to summarizeToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,I have spent the last few days thinking about why bitcoin underperformed expectations in 2025. My conclusion is that multiple trends, forces, and developments came together to create the perfect storm for the digital currency to end the year lower than where it started.Lower risk = lower returnFirst, bitcoin is much less risky today than at any other point in the history of the asset. No one believes the US government is going to shut bitcoin down. The government isn’t going to come and arrest bitcoin holders. There is true decentralization, including from individual retail investors to the largest financial institutions in the world.This decentralization removes the risk of a 51% attack, along with other nefarious actions that could fundamentally change the bitcoin value proposition. Bitcoin has also gone through numerous economic situations without failing or going to $0. The digital asset has dropped ~80% numerous times, weathered the COVID liquidity crisis, resisted the FTX collapse, and then survived the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history.This proven resilience means that the risk of holding bitcoin is low. Add in the fact that many of the top financial institutions in the world are embracing the asset and it becomes very difficult to see a scenario where bitcoin “fails.” Because of this newfound conviction in bitcoin’s continued success, we should all expect a lower return moving forward.Buying bitcoin a decade ago was high risk, high reward. Buying bitcoin today is low risk, medium reward. I expect bitcoin to continue outperforming the stock market indexes over the next decade, but it won’t deliver the 80%+ compound annual growth rate that we enjoyed in the past.Global stability is returningBitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against chaos and economic uncertainty. When wars break out, and citizens around the world feel it will be necessary to resist censorship and seizures, bitcoin becomes an attractive asset.However, since President Trump took office there has been more global stability than before. The Israel/Hamas conflict is over. Russia and Ukraine are closer to signing a peace deal than ever before. Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been drastically reduced. The southern border is closed. And former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed from his country over the weekend.This “peace through strength” approach is really about the United States returning to its position atop the global world order. There are consequences for people who get out of line. Bad people understand that the US will hunt them down to capture or kill them.All of this creates less chaos and more predictable geopolitical relationships. If there is less chaos, then the chaos hedge (bitcoin) is not sought after like it would otherwise be.Wall Street plays different gamesBitcoin was a long-only game for most of the last 15 years. Anyone with an internet connection could acquire the asset and hold it while they hoped the price went higher. Once Wall Street and the large financial institutions got involved, the game changed substantially.You can think of these changes as a way of “civilizing” bitcoin. Many of the early bitcoiners, who are more akin to cowboys, don’t want to be civilized though. They were attracted to the asymmetric returns and they loved the fact that bitcoin had a libertarian flavor to it. The more “outside the system” bitcoin was, the more these cowboys wanted to buy.Now that bitcoin is being pulled into the legacy financial system (ETFs, treasury companies, funds, options, etc), early holders of bitcoin are exiting at a higher pace than normal. Some of them are selling their bitcoin outright. Others are using complex financial structures to reduce tax burdens, including renouncing US citizenship.But ProCap Financial CIO Jeff Park points out that some OGs are intelligently using options to sell away the upside of their bitcoin exposure in exchange for yield. These covered call strategies are applying significant pressure on bitcoin’s price, which is contributing to the asset’s lack of upside movement.Bitcoin is not the only girl at the partyLastly, bitcoin has historically been the most popular asset available to investors seeking extreme asymmetry and volatility. If you wanted to make a lot of money, you probably wanted to have some bitcoin.Bitcoin can no longer claim that exclusive title anymore. Investors are being bombarded with artificial intelligence, prediction markets, self-driving cars, humanoid robots, rockets, drones, brain computer interfaces, nuclear energy, and many other groundbreaking technologies.This is a great time to be a risk-taker. You have a buffet of opportunities to put in your portfolio. This increased opportunity set fractures the capital, verbal conversation, and mental energy that would have been devoted to bitcoin.Counter-argumentAs I have been thinking about bitcoin’s performance last year, I did my best to argue the opposite of my view as well. The best counterargument would be gold. Gold isn’t the sexiest asset. The precious metal is supposed to be a chaos hedge as well. Gold has been part of the legacy financial system for decades.But gold had the best year in the history of the asset in 2025. So bitcoin’s price not only disappointed, but it did so while another sound money asset was putting in historic numbers. Does that mean my analysis is wrong? Not necessarily.Bitcoin is a younger, smaller asset. There are individual public companies with a larger market cap than the entire bitcoin market cap. So it wouldn’t surprise me if bitcoin’s disappointing performance is attached to the transition the asset went through over the last 18 months. Macro investor Jordi Visser has called this the “bitcoin IPO moment.”ConclusionThe argument to own bitcoin has always been a version of “bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, store-of-value asset that has a finite supply and programmatic monetary policy, which can be audited by anyone at any time.”Regardless of the market conditions, or the behavior of various holder cohorts, I still believe the argument to own bitcoin is very strong. It is a substantial percentage of my personal net worth and I ended 2025 with more bitcoin than I started the year with.As the late Charlie Munger once said, “The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.”- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital Management🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon.🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.comThe 2026 Playbook: Bitcoin & A.I.Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the key lessons from 2025 and what to watch in 2026. We cover the assets and trends shaping the next cycle, the rapid impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, GDP, economic growth, and how individuals can use these tools to create more value in their work and lives. We also dive into bitcoin, AI’s role in markets, and practical takeaways you can apply immediately.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at <a target="_blank" hr...
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The Market Isn’t as Nervous as the Headlines Want You to Believe
Dec 1600:02:18Tap to summarizeToday’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,It seems like every day we are being bombarded with negative headlines, scary predictions of a big market crash, and the promise of economic destruction right around the corner. The people pushing this negative view of the world will point to data points like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey as evidence that American citizens are in big trouble.But as the Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently pointed out, the Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has diverged in a big way from the Consumer Sentiment Survey.Which one should you believe? The Goldman survey that measures what people are saying online when they think no one is watching or the academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form with specific “measurement” questions? I’ll take the social media sentiment every day of the week.It isn’t just social media though. Mike Zaccardi shows Google searches for “AI bubble” have started declining from their recent peak.My takeaway from that rapid decline is that most of the AI-related fear was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies, so the fact that people are not furiously asking “are we in a bubble?!” tells me that people are probably not worried about a real bubble being present yet.They shouldn’t be worried about a bubble either. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McClellan says “tor those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the Covid Crash in 2020.”This QE is happening at a time where the US government’s finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that “the current calendar year-to-date deficit is $1.52 trillion, which compares to a deficit of $1.93 trillion for the comparable period last year under Biden, a 21% drop.Not only is the deficit smaller under President Trump - the economy is also bigger. The full 2025 calendar year budget deficit to GDP may total only 5.5%, substantially lower than the unsustainably high 6.8% in calendar year 2024 under Biden.”Forget the political sharpshooting and focus on what is important: the US government’s finances are improving. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest they have been since March 2021.And if that doesn’t get you excited, the Carson Group shows the last two weeks of December have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks.I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end of year run. It would be a welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The MarketJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe
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How AI, Easier Money, and Deregulation Could Supercharge U.S. GDP Growth
Dec 1500:02:51Tap to summarizeToday’s Letter is Brought To You by MoonPay x Phantom!Crypto is easy when your wallet just works. That’s why millions trust Phantom, powered by MoonPay.Phantom gives users one home for crypto across Solana and top chains. With MoonPay built in, anyone can buy in seconds using Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo or cards — no bridges, no friction, no waiting.Together, Phantom and MoonPay make onboarding to crypto as simple as tapping “Buy”. Phantom keeps your assets safe while MoonPay opens the door to everything crypto has to offer.Keep your crypto in one place with MoonPay + Phantom. Controlled by you, secured by us.To investors,Financial markets have learned to listen when the President of the United States talks about asset prices or the economy. When he said to buy stocks earlier this year, it was a great time to buy stocks. When he said tariffs wouldn’t lead to empty shelves or the Great Depression, you should have gone long stocks immediately.This makes sense because the leader of the free world, regardless of his political party, had immense power and influence over financial markets. Simply, he can make things happen.But every once in awhile Trump says something about the economy that sounds downright outrageous. The latest example was a few days ago when he said GDP growth should be 20-25% year-over-year. The exact quote was: “instead of a 4% GDP or 3% GDP, it should be able to be 20 or 25%. I don’t know why it can’t be.”At first, this comment sounds ridiculous because the US has averaged 3.2% annual GDP growth since 1947. So the President is telling us he thinks that his economic policies can get us to a growth number that is 700% higher. Again, sounds ridiculous, right?Maybe not. There is a possible path to significant GDP growth. It may be unlikely, but it is possible.First, Michael Arouet highlights the real driver on how we could get to 20-25% GDP numbers. Michael writes “Hear me out, was the entire period since the Great Financial Crisis just an unsustainable artificial debt binge?”If that is true, the US economy could easily grow faster if we were willing to take on substantially more debt. That may sound like a crazy idea, but that is exactly what we have been doing for the last 25 years.The United States’ debt-to-GDP has exploded from about 55% in the year 2000 to nearly 125% in 2024. We are addicted to debt. There is no other way to describe the situation.But the Trump administration has somehow figured out a way to stimulate GDP growth upwards of 3.5%, while reducing the federal budget deficit by around $600 billion.Kevin Hassett went on television last week and said “It’s looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year. That really helps lower inflation. We’ve got the trade deficit cut in half from last year. All of these things are things that should continue to move us towards the Fed target of 2%.”Now this doesn’t mean they are going to balance the budget. In fact, I went from being excited about a balanced budget earlier this year to very cynical about any President in our lifetime being able to balance a budget in light of the structural challenges. But reducing the deficit by $600 billion is still a great development.So this brings us back to growing GDP at a substantially higher rate. The way you do this is ease monetary policy, encourage technology innovation like AI, and deregulate as much as possible. There will be trade-offs to these decisions, but this is the blueprint for growing GDP much faster.Take AI as one example. The explosion of innovation and investment from Silicon Valley has essentially saved the US economy. More than 60% of GDP growth is estimated to be from AI-related investments. Couple that with the interest rate cuts, the return of QE, and a Trump-friendly Fed Chairman for 2026…that should spell faster growth across the US economy.We were promised an economic boom. It looks like we are going to get exactly that. Will it be 20-25% annual GDP growth? Doubtful. But I’ll take 5-7% growth any day of the week.Hope everyone has a great start to their Monday. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The MarketJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with ...
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QE Is Back and Asset Prices are going Higher
Dec 1100:03:33Tap to summarizeToday’s Letter is Brought To You by Abra!Borrow up to 50% of the value of your crypto holdings with Abra in a highly flexible open term loan. Your collateral is held in a separately managed account where you retain legal title to the assets. Rates are highly competitive, ranging from 4-7%APY.No interest payments are required during the life of the loan. There are no minimums or maximum loan sizes.To learn more, click here. To set up an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.To investors,Quantitative easing is back. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut yesterday, which brings the federal funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%. The vote had three dissenters, including two people who thought we should have left rates unchanged and Fed Governor Stephen Miran who wanted a 50 basis point cut. While the interest rate cut is important, it was consensus across Wall Street that the central bank would reduce the cost of capital by 25 basis points. The big surprise coming out of the two day meeting was the Fed’s announcement to restart balance sheet expansion with $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys.My friends at Geiger Capital put it best when they reminded us that Ben Bernanke promised in 2008 that QE was temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet would soon be lower than when they started.As you can see, the Fed’s balance sheet has continued to grow over time and now Jerome Powell is telling us that it is time to go back higher. This entire situation is highly unusual. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello outlined it perfectly:* Stocks: all-time high* Home Prices: all-time high* Gold: all-time high* Money Supply: all-time high* National Debt: all-time high* CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed’s “target”* Fed: cut rates again today & will start QE on FridayBut as I wrote earlier this week, multiple deflationary forces are headed for a collision with the US economy. We have AI, robotics, tariffs, and a surge in deportations. Each would be worth watching on their own, but they collectively create the perfect storm for the Fed to fail at monetary policy.Add in weakness in the job market and it becomes clear why the Fed has to get interest rates lower. So now that we know QE is coming back, what will happen to asset prices?Remember, when the Fed buys bonds, it pushes bond yields down and encourages investors to move into riskier assets in search of higher returns. This “liquidity wave” makes borrowing cheaper, boosts confidence, and raises demand across financial markets. The biggest beneficiaries of QE are almost always risk assets. Stocks tend to rise because future earnings are discounted at lower rates, making companies appear more valuable. Bitcoin and other digital assets benefit because investors look for assets that outperform cash when money supply expands. Real estate goes up because mortgages become cheaper and investors chase hard assets. Long-duration assets—like tech stocks, growth companies, and venture-backed businesses—often rise the most because their value depends on future cash flows, which become more attractive when rates fall.So what assets suffer during QE?One of the big losers should be the U.S. dollar, which tends to weaken when more dollars are created, and short-term cash-like investments, which offer lower yields and become less attractive relative to risk assets. Traditional value stocks, commodities tied to economic stress, and defensive sectors may lag because QE shifts investor appetite away from safety and toward growth and speculation. Overall, QE is designed to inflate financial assets, and historically it has done exactly that.This means investors are about to be very happy.I took my analysis of QE’s impact one step further and I asked Silvia, the AI CFO that we built, to explain how the return of QE should impact my personal portfolio. She told me “the rate cuts are highly favorable for your portfolio, particularly your private investments and crypto. Your Opendoor position is also well-positioned to benefit from housing market recovery.However, the Fed’s signal of fewer cuts ahead means the easy gains may be behind us. The key risk is your extreme concentration in private investments, which makes you exceptionally sensitive to any Fed policy changes.Your portfolio is essentially a leveraged bet on lower rates — which has worked brilliantly so far, but requires careful monitoring as the Fed slows its cutting pace in 2026.”You can ask Silvia to analyze your personal portfolio by signing up for free by clicking here.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin vs The Fed: Who Wins in 2026?Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we break down the Fed’s year-end shift toward rate cuts and easier liquidity, what it means for markets, and why bitcoin sentiment feels so negative despite strong performance. Jeff also digs into how AI investment is reshaping the macro landscape, what institutional players like BlackRock and Stripe signal for crypto, and why ProCap’s mission centers on bitcoin and the coming age of abundance.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a st...
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