Loading summary
Anthony Pompliano
This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it, ready to make anything online make sense. There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up, required compatibility and availability. Various 18/
Peter Schiff
introducing meta glasses. You have questions. They've got answers. Hey Meta, what's the capital of Peru? Lima. How do you say where's the restroom in Spanish? Dondes talbano. Hey, Meta is a hot dog a sandwich? Technically, no. Spiritually, yes. Hey Meta, what should I do with my life? That's one of life's biggest questions. What do you think? Ask anything. With the new Meta glasses, 20, 30,000 is still a big number for bitcoin. It's a lot to pay for nothing. And if you look at the long term trend line, that's about where the
Anthony Pompliano
support is if you believe what you're saying. Let's make a bet. If from today, if bitcoin outperforms gold, then you give me a bitcoin. But if bitcoin does not outperform gold, I'll give you a bitcoin. What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with the one and only legendary Peter Schiff. Now, Peter Schiff is the host of the Peter Schiff show podcast. Great podcast. He's here and I just give him a beating. Intellectually. This is just a absolute nightmare for him. We talk about the Fed, we talk about inflation, we talk about equity markets, about gold, bitcoin, anything and everything that you want to know about finance and the economy, we probably talked about it. And I'm telling you, I got him to admit all kinds of crazy stuff. And I think that you're going to enjoy this conversation. So here's the latest one with Peter Schiff. All right, Peter, what do you think inflation is right now in the United States of America?
Peter Schiff
What I think it is, I think it's a big problem. I think it's, it's a tax. It is the way the US Government is currently funding a significant percentage of its spending.
Anthony Pompliano
But what level do you think inflation is? Like the inflation? Yeah, the inflation numbers have come down recently. People are celebrating. But when I go out in the street and I talk to people, they say that inflation is incredibly high because everything's so expensive.
Peter Schiff
Well, it is expensive. I mean, you know, just driving in here, I, you know, I had it, you know, I had a driver and, you know, and I. This 40 bucks an hour, I said, well, I thought, I, I thought it was 30. I remembered it being 30 because, well, you know, inflation, you know, so they raised their, they raised their prices. I mean, the price of everything is going up. And, you know, I mentioned on my own podcast, I think last week, the same week that we got the CPI and the PPI and the markets were relieved that these numbers were better than expected and they were declines. That same week they released the import export prices. And while the CPI was up 3 and a half percent year over year, which is still 3 and a half percent, is not nothing, right? I mean, but import prices were up 7.1% year over year. And that doesn't count tariffs, just without the tariffs. Import prices are up 7.1%. Export prices were up over 10%. Those numbers to me seem a lot more reflective of what consumers are actually paying. And those numbers, I think are more honest because they're not adjusted. It's not like a select basket that changes. There's no substitution hedonics. And even to me, the export number is even more consequential. Not that we're not paying those prices. Our trading partners are. We're paying the import prices. But if we're having to raise our export prices by 10%, there's a good chance that Americans who buy those same products are also paying 10% more. Because pretty much everything we export, we also consume. We just produce more than we consume and we export the difference. But if the cost of production is going up and we're raising our prices to our foreign customers, most likely that those same companies are raising prices to their domestic customers. So, you know, inflation is a big deal. I mean, it's not anywhere near 2%. But I think of inflation not just in terms of how much prices are rising, it's how much they otherwise would, would have fallen absent inflation. Because if you really understand what inflation is, it's the expansion of the money supply. That's what's being inflated. Literally, it's money and credit. But if you create more money and as a result of that, prices, let's say, are 10% higher than they otherwise would have been. But that might not mean that they're up 10%. It may mean that they would have gone down 3%, but instead they went up 7%. The difference is 10%. That is a real loss to the consumer. I would have gotten to buy something 3% cheaper, but instead the government created inflation. And now it's 7% more expensive. That's 10%. And that purchasing power didn't disappear. It was transferred to the government and then the government gave it to somebody else. Because the government, you know, they wrote a check for Social Security benefits or welfare or food stamps or to pay the military, and they didn't collect it in taxes. So how does the government pay, pay out money that it didn't collect in taxes? It creates it. And when you create new money and you give it to somebody and they spend it, it just drives up prices because now you have more demand, you know, without a commensurate increase in supply. When the government raises revenue through taxation, that doesn't happen because it takes money away from me. So now I can't spend it and now somebody else is spending the money instead of me. And so it doesn't push prices up the way, just creating money. Now if government workers were actually productive and added to the supply of goods, then their spending wouldn't push up prices. But if government workers aren't producing anything but they're consuming, well, their consumption is going to push up prices if it's paid for by new money, creating as opposed to taxation. So when you see all these congressmen, we just had the testimony of Kevin Warsh and the senators and the congressmen, they're really upset at the Fed, like, hey, we got all this inflation. What are you going to do about it? Well, they're part of the reason we have the inflation. It takes two to tango when it comes to inflation. Yes, the Fed is the principal bad actor, but it's acting in concert with Congress and the President because it's Congress that is passing the deficit spending that the Fed monetizes. And so that congressional spending is what manifests itself in inflation. And so they shouldn't be blaming the Fed, they should be accepting equal responsibility for having created it. And that's also why it's disingenuous and I think even wrong when the Fed chair, whether it's Warsh or whether it was Powell or predecessors not to opine on fiscal policy and claim that we're not allowed to talk about it. You can't talk about inflation or you can't do anything about inflation without considering fiscal policy when it's a driving force behind the inflation. So instead of ignoring those questions or refusing to answer, the Fed should be holding Congress accountable and say, look, if you want less inflation, then cut government spending. That's what you gotta do. Because if you don't cut government spending, and I Don't create the inflation. We're gonna have a financial crisis. We're gonna have much higher interest rates. We're gonna have a stock market crash. A market crash. Do you want all those things? Because if you don't want inflation and then you don't want that other stuff, you got to cut government spending. And if you're not going to cut government spending, you got to raise taxes. And you can't just raise taxes on the rich because they're not going to really pay. You got to raise taxes on the middle class.
Anthony Pompliano
Why won't the rich people pay the taxes?
Peter Schiff
Well, they have better ways of avoiding the tax. But if you're going to just raise the marginal tax on, on, on the wealthy, you're going to have less investment, you're going to have less income to tax. And when you, when you tax money that otherwise would have been saved and invested, you undermine the economy, you undermine economic growth, you undermine job creation, you. And it may end up leading to less tax revenue even though you have higher tax rates. The only way to really get higher tax revenue is to go after the consumer spending. And sure, you know, you, you can have taxes on, on private jets and yachts, although the federal government can't really impose those because those are property taxes. But you have to tax money that would have been spent, which means if you want less inflation, you got to tax the middle class. And in fact, what the big beautiful bill did and why it was such a bad bill and shouldn't have been passed is it did the opposite. Because the big beautiful bill cut taxes, the very taxes that you would need to raise. Cut taxes on tips, cut taxes on Social Security, cut taxes on overtime. This is money that is spent. And so when you cut taxes and you end up getting more consumption, you just get higher prices, you just get inflation. You don't get any economic growth out of that. You get economic growth from increasing investment, which comes from lowering the marginal tax rate, not just going after, you know, these, these middle class tax tax breaks. But so nobody wants to do that. And the other thing they'd have to do is we'll cut spending, cut Social Security, cut Medicare. They don't want to do that either. Because what happens when somebody gets Social Security check, they go out and spend it. That's what's pushing our prices. Because the people on Social Security, they're not out there producing anything, they're just consuming.
Anthony Pompliano
If you believe the government's inflation number, which I don't think you or I do, but let's just say it's 3.5% year over year. The Fed, you would think would be draining their balance sheet. They would be hiking interest rates, they'd be doing all these things to combat higher inflation. But instead they've actually increased or expanded their balance sheet by about $200 billion since December of last year, while we had inflation that was closer to 4% then. On top of that, it seems like now the Fed is not going to hike rates. The odds across various markets are below 50%, and they may even try to cut rates this year. What's your analysis as to why they're doing this?
Peter Schiff
It's politics. That's the reason they're doing it. I mean, that's the reason they stopped hiking rates in the first place, because banks started to fail. It wasn't because they got inflation under control. In fact, that's the reason that interest rates got so low. And in fact, when the CPI finally got back above 2%, the reason that they came up with this idea of inflation averaging, all of a sudden we want to average 2%. And so because we were below 2% for so long, we need to be a little bit above it to just average it out. That was all politics, because they were looking for an excuse. They didn't want to raise rates. They didn't want to tighten policy. And then, of course, when it got out of control and when inflation became the number one issue in the country, well, then they had to start hiking rates. They had to start doing something about it because they couldn't do nothing because it was the main problem. And so they tightened rates until something broke, which was Signature Bank. And Signature bank is what was a Valley bank or Silicon Valley Bank. Silicon Valley Bank, a few others.
Anthony Pompliano
Silvergate.
Peter Schiff
Silvergate, yeah. They started to fail. And more banks would have failed if they would have kept hiking. Those were just kind of the first ones to go. So they cut rates, but they never should have cut rates. Rates are too low. And the way, you know, rates are too low is because credit continues to expand. You know, the government continues to go deeper into debt. Households continue to go deeper into debt. So inflation is not just money supply expansion, it's credit. And credit growth has continued the entire time the Fed was supposedly fighting inflation. Credit kept expanding, as did money supply. Money supply is up like 5.5% over the last year. That's a lot of money supply growth, especially if you're trying to fight inflation when you're actually creating inflation by expanding the money supply. But it's not just money. Again, it's credit because I don't need money to buy. I can buy with credit just the same as buying with money. And so what you really need to do to slow inflation is you got to stop the expansion of the money supply and contract credit. And interest rates never rose high enough to do that. Had interest rates gotten high enough, let's say rates got to 10% or 12%, people might have said, I'm not going to borrow that much. I'm going to save. I'm going to put my money in the bank. I'm going to get some of that 10% yield. We never got rates high enough to cause consumers to change their preferences from consumption to savings. And the government never cut back. The government didn't look at high interest rates and say, oh, we got to cut back on spending here. We can't borrow at these rates. The Fed, for political reasons, kept rates artificially low, but they had to pretend that they were fighting inflation. They couldn't admit that they're not. So they talk about, oh, we're fighting inflation. That's what Walsh is doing now. He's trying to get some credibility by talking about how much he's going to fight inflation, which I thought was funny when Senator Kennedy asked him, what are you going to do about inflation? And Walsh says, well, I have street things I'm going to do. And it amounted to nothing because it was all talking about it. He said, we're, you know, we're going to. We're going to make sure everybody knows that we're serious about fighting inflation. We're going to own inflation and tell people that we won't quit until we get rid of it. We're going to study it. You know, we're going to look at our tools. Okay, what are you going to do? You know, because the only thing he could do is dramatically increase interest rates and contract the money supply, which he's not going to do because of politics. Yes. He said many occasions that inflation is a choice, which it is. We don't have to choose inflation, but if we don't choose inflation, then by default we're choosing something else. And it's avoiding that other choice. That is the reason that everybody chooses inflation.
Anthony Pompliano
What about artificial intelligence, Robotics, deportations, tariffs, these things that people believe are deflationary.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
Are they having a big impact?
Peter Schiff
Well, AI has the potential to increase productivity, which would result in more stuff at lower prices. That's a good thing. That's not deflation. Well, that's not. Deflation is a contraction of the money supply. Just like inflation is an expansion. But yes, a lot of people think of deflation as falling prices, but I don't like to call it deflation because for some reason deflation has a bad connotation to it, but it's not. A lower cost of living is a good thing. Everybody wants their cost of living to go down. Everybody wants prices to be lower because if prices are lower, you can buy more stuff. Most people don't have an unlimited amount of money, but they do have an unlimited amount of desires. People want all kinds of things and the cheaper stuff is, the more we can have. And so AI has the potential to make the things that we want and need a lot less expensive. That's a good thing. Tariffs, on the other hand, do the opposite. Tariffs make the things that we want more expensive. It's not inflationary, but it is going to increase the prices of a lot of the things that we want to buy. And so AI is good. Tariffs are bad. Now, of course, the government needs revenue. So are tariffs the worst way for the government to raise revenue? No, I think the income tax is the worst way. The inheritance tax, the payroll tax, there are a lot worse taxes than tariffs. But what I didn't like about the President's tariffs is a. I didn't like them being sold as if we didn't have to pay it. Like, hey, this is a tax on China. This is a tax on Canada or Mexico. That was bullshit. They were taxes on Americans. Americans paid all the tariffs. We could debate that, but then you'd lose if you tried to debate that.
Anthony Pompliano
Because if you go back and you look at the 2018 tariffs, every single one of those items, the price went down within 18 months.
Peter Schiff
That doesn't mean that the tariffs weren't paid by Americans. Maybe the prices would have gone down by more. But you know, from definition the tariff is paid by the importer, not by the exporter. They collect it in the United States.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, but if you go and you look. So there's this great study that showed the tariffs are put on China at 1.20%.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
And they went and they looked at and at least the goods they view. So this isn't 100% of all goods. Obviously it's a study. But what they found was the actual increase in prices of those specific goods. When there's a 20% tariff on China was a 4% increase from China made goods coming to the United States. The consumer paid 4% more on those items.
Peter Schiff
Well, then some American company must have absorbed that, that temporarily because what their Argument was China didn't cut their prices by 16%.
Anthony Pompliano
What their conclusion was that there are a lot of people in the supply chain. So there's the manufacturer, there's the logistics, you know, and kind of export on the Chinese side. Then there's obviously the travel to the United States. There's the importer, there's the distributor, the retailer.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
There's all these components. And basically the conclusion of their piece was a bunch of those players all eat a little piece of the tariff. Nobody does 16%.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
But if each player in the supply chain eats 1 to 2%, then all of a sudden the end consumer. Now in their conclusion for that specific goods, there was an increase of 4%.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
So it did go up in that specific study. But their point was a 20% tariff didn't equal 20% higher prices on the
Peter Schiff
U.S. you don't know what happened other than, you know, other than that one price increase. What would have happened absent the tariff to those particular prices? Or companies could adjust in the short run. But a tariff is just like paying rent, paying salaries, paying insurance, paying rent. All of the cost of doing business ultimately has to get absorbed by the consumer in prices. And the reason that entrepreneurs are always looking for ways to lower their costs is so then they can charge less and make more money. They can do higher volume.
Anthony Pompliano
So put tariffs aside for a second. Right? Just leave those there. Let's go to Elon Musk. He says that artificial intelligence and robotics is going to have such a profound impact on the economy that you're not going to need to have a job, you don't need to save for retirement. And he believes that there is going to be this supersonic tsunami of deflationary forces.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, like my, like my kid.
Anthony Pompliano
Right. But do you agree with Elon? Do you think that AI and robotics can create such a big deflationary force that actually the government's going to have to print more money rather than less?
Peter Schiff
Well, the government wanted to print any money. I mean, doesn't mean they won't. But obviously, to the extent that we can have intelligent robots doing manual labor and just AI computer programs doing intellectual labor, that means we don't have to do it. There are three factors of production. The basic economics, land, labor, and capital. And any business you combine all three. Well, labor is limited, obviously, they're all scarce. The resources are not unlimited, but the labor is from human beings. And there's physical labor, there's skilled labor, and there's not an influence supply of it. Well, AI and robotics have the Potential over time to basically make labor or eliminate labor as a factor of production entirely. So that capital handles that right? So your capital investment, because a robot would be capital, robot wouldn't be labor. It would be your capital businessman. And so AI agents would be capital. They wouldn't be classified as labor. So to the extent that we don't need any labor anymore, that's a good thing, because that means we don't have to work. I mean, the whole goal of progress is so we can enjoy more for less work. The early humans, all they did is work. They worked all day, right? Because if they wanted to eat, they had to work. Otherwise they starved. They had to spend all day hunting, gathering. And as we started to invent things, then we didn't have to work as hard. And so all this would be progress. I don't know how long it's going to actually take. I think there's. Maybe a lot of people are overly optimistic about the time frame for where none of us have to work.
Anthony Pompliano
But do you think that we will get to that point?
Peter Schiff
I think ultimately we will. We don't destroy ourselves before we get there. But I think at some point in the future, humans won't have to work. We won't need to work because we'll have all the things that we want without having to work to create them. But I don't think government needs to get involved in that. Unfortunately, probably will people think, oh, well, we're going to need government to have to have some universal basic income, because people aren't going to have jobs. There will always be jobs, I think, for people who need them, because machines will not do everything. There will be things that humans could do better if they need to. I think more people in the future will have the option not to work. And if they do work, I think they'll have better jobs that will be available that will be more intellectually stimulating or rewarding. A lot of the mundane jobs will be automated, right? That the repetitive jobs. I mean, who the hell wants those jobs, right? And if we don't need this job, people forget as, hey, some people that were working in factories won't be employed. But they won't need to be employed because all the things that those factories produce will be so much cheaper that people won't need as much money to afford them. They won't have to work as hard. And the money that you earn is really a function of your contribution to economic output other than what government gives you. So the people who are working in the factories have purchasing power. Because they worked in factories and they help produce things. But if we can produce those things in factories without humans involved and there's so much more production, then the prices will be a lot lower and then the people won't have to work as hard at some other job to afford to buy what these factors have produced. But I do think that you have two things that are happening at the same time. You have the positive developments from capitalism and AI is part of capitalism, and capitalism's creating abundance and increasing the quality and lowering the cost of things. And then you have the government that does the opposite. Right? The government creates scarcity, redistributes wealth, destroys wealth, reduces quality and increases price. So you have these counter balancing forces. The secret to real economic success is the degree to which you can keep government out, limit government's involvement and power to screw things up, and to maximize the freedom of the people that operate in a market. But we also have this looming debt crisis coming from decades and decades of, you know, excesses. You know, we have a $40 trillion debt that will be 50 trillion in a few years. We have an enormous interest expense. We have this complete bubble economy in the US and so, you know, will we get a get out of jail free card with what's happening with AI or will the AI end up being the straw that breaks the camel's back? Because the cost of building out the AI infrastructure and the data centers could break us before we even get to the returns. We have to incur the costs. And we're already broke as a society. We don't have the savings to tap into because we've been tapping into the savings from the rest of the world. And we already owe the world more than we could ever repay and they don't want to lend us anymore. In the meantime, we started a war which is complicating things even more.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you think that the war will ultimately have a profound impact on inflation or was the spike that we saw temporary? Inflation has peaked in the official numbers and we should now expect to kind of go back to where we were.
Peter Schiff
No, I mean, look, inflation was going to accelerate without the war. The war will make it worse because the war means bigger deficits and more inflation to finance them. But war also diverts production from civilian goods to military goods. I mean, if we're going to build more bombs, well, what aren't we building? So prices are going to be higher. Oil prices are certainly going to be significantly higher because of the war than they would have been absent to war.
Anthony Pompliano
And you think that that's true long term, regardless of what happens with the war?
Peter Schiff
Well, it's hard to say regardless of what happens, but as far as any likely possibility, I think oil prices go up. I think even if we manage to end this war, which seems unlikely anytime soon, but I think the peace will be fragile, investors, countries, there'll be a risk premium in oil that is higher than it otherwise would have been because who knows when the war might break out again. And I doubt that the Strait of Hormuz, there's going to be some kind of toll, ships are going to be paying up to travel. And again, that's just going to raise costs, not just for anything that goes through there, that's just higher costs.
Anthony Pompliano
What do you think it'll take to end the war?
Peter Schiff
I don't know at this point, I mean, we really basically have to surrender because I don't see how we're going to. Trump was again today posting on Truth Social about bombing the bridges again and bombing the power plants, which he didn't do. You know, he tacoed out of doing that last time, which I'm glad. I don't want him bombing civilian targets in Iran. But the only way we could actually win the war would be to actually invade the country. We'd have to go in there. I don't think we're going to win it by dropping these bombs because we already killed their leader. They just got new ones, right? I mean, and we're not going to. We can't go in there and start bombing the city and start killing civilians. I mean, so we actually have to go in there with troops, but then once we're there, we just can't leave. We gotta stay there.
Anthony Pompliano
If we go with boots on the ground in Iran, he's gonna lose all support of anyone who supports it, which
Peter Schiff
is why we can't win the war, which is why we have to surrender. Which is what I said from day one. And I said from day one, this whole thing was a mistake because we're not gonna be able to win and we're not gonna be able to get out of it. So Trump has to surrender while making it look like we won, which, you know, that's kind of what Trump does. He's just a bullshitter, right? So he could, he could claim this is the greatest victory in the history of the of warfare, yet still basically surrender. But I think Iran realizes that.
Anthony Pompliano
Beautiful boats, beautiful boats. They're all at the bottom of the sea now, right? I mean, that's what he's been saying. Is I do think that, and I've talked about this publicly that today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. Arch Public has just expanded its agentic trading platform beyond crypto. So pay attention. This is a big one now. They are automating strategies across stocks, commodities and ETFs and I think that this is going to be huge. You can now automatically take profits when one market hits new all time highs and rotate that capital into other markets showing more opportunity. Whether you're rotating capital into AI stocks Gold if you're investing in the S&P 500 or you're accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public brings real discipline and automation to your investment strategy. Additionally, they've launched a powerful new tax loss harvesting tool. With crypto being so volatile and its exemption from the wash sale rule, Arch Public can offset gains with losses without compromising your long term positions. It's exactly what every serious investor does. Institutional grade automation that works across every major asset class. There's no more emotional trading, no more missing tax opportunities, just smarter hands free execution of your preferred strategies. Go to archpublic.com right now, connect with their team, set up a time, bring your account if you'd like. Then you can learn what automated trading can do for you. Archpublic.com Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. We're living in a world of higher for longer rates, tighter credit and fewer places to earn real yield. That's why figure is interesting. Figure is the largest non bank HELOC lender in the United states with over $22 billion unlocked for homeowners. They're now applying that same concept and innovation to crypto backed loans in real world asset yield. If you're holding crypto, which many of you are, figure lets you borrow against it at 8.91% interest. That's 9.9% APR and it's got a 50% loan to value. It gives you liquidity without selling, without triggering taxes and without stepping out of the market. They use a decentralized NPC custody so assets stay in segregated wallets protected from rug poles. And they've introduced liquidation protection to help manage downside volatility. And for investors looking for yield, democratized prime offers up to 9% APY paid hourly backed by real world private credit. Real cash flows, not speculative token emissions figures. Building a new capital market on blockchain. Now you have access to the upside. Check them out using the link in the Description. Go to FigureMarkets CO POP. If you were to go on the street right now in Manhattan and ask 20 people, are we currently engaged in conflict with Iran or not? Is the war on or off? Nobody knows because it's on one day, it's off the next. It's turned on in the morning, it's off by the afternoon, it's back on at night.
Peter Schiff
I don't even know where Iran is.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, well, if the other component of this, I think is what we all source starting to see is very different technology on the battlefield. So we know that the drones in Ukraine became really big. We started to see quite interesting technology. You know, Iron Dome, all this stuff with Gaza and Israel and then Iran shooting missiles, et cetera. But then, I don't know if you saw the video recently of the Saronic boat. It's basically an autonomous surface vessel, and it maneuvered itself into the port, and then it ran into a. Like a kind of like a port entry and blew itself up. It's like a kamikaze boat. And so you look at this and you say, first of all, there's a lot of production going on there. Obviously there's money changing hands if the government is using this technology. But the third thing is there's no humans involved, right, in terms of, you know, it's an unmanned autonomous vessel. And so. And these different companies, like, they're starting to build all this technology. It does feel like the humans are getting taken off the battlefield. To your point. Like, go in there used to mean human boots on the ground, but we're kind of sending technology to go do that job now, right?
Peter Schiff
Well, I guess if we had. If we can just send robots.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, isn't that what warfare is going to be?
Peter Schiff
Well, one of the reason that people don't like boots on the ground is that a lot more people die. A lot more. I mean, a few of our soldiers have died, but not many because we're just dropping bombs, you know, and we obviously have, you know, better aircraft and things like that, which is one of the reason that you can have some more support for the war. When people stop coming home in body bags, it's not good. But the problem with occupying a country, and we've seen that, is, okay, so you get in there, you take over, but then how do you get the hell out? And what happens when you leave?
Anthony Pompliano
Should we care?
Peter Schiff
Well, we should care because what if we leave and we create a bigger problem than the one that we thought we solved? It's the devil you know. You know, you create a power vacuum and then it gets filled and it maybe Gets filled in a worse way than it was before.
Anthony Pompliano
Now some of the lift in inflation, 60% of it in some of the recent readings was from energy. We have seen price of oil come down, then it goes back up. It's been very, very volatile. If the war was to end today through the rest of the year, do you think that inflation would continue to fall or do you think that inflation is going to kind of u turn now and this recent drop in inflation is actually just a head fake and we should expect to, you know, four and a half, 5% inflation later this year.
Peter Schiff
Look, I think inflation as measured by the CPI or any way you want to measure it is, is headed higher. I think it troughed a couple years ago and it's been trending up. The only reason we had some improvement in the official numbers in, in June was we had a 30% drop in oil and that's almost completely erased already in July, you know, so this is
Anthony Pompliano
almost like in the 80s, kind of a double top of inflation.
Peter Schiff
No, we're not a double top. We're going to keep going up. I mean, I think that the high water mark for year over year inflation is not going to be 9.1, which is what we hit.
Anthony Pompliano
Oh, you think it's going to be higher than that?
Peter Schiff
Yes. Yeah, well, I think we're headed higher.
Anthony Pompliano
How high do you think inflation could get?
Peter Schiff
Oh, double digits for sure. Well, I just don't.
Anthony Pompliano
After nine comes 10, I'd like 10% or 20%.
Peter Schiff
I just don't know what the first letter is going to be. Number's going to be. Will it be a one? Will it be a two?
Anthony Pompliano
You think we could get to 20% inflation in America?
Peter Schiff
Sure, yeah. I mean, I don't know what's going to stop it. Especially if we get into a deep enough recession and they have to, you know, they print enough money if the dollar cracks. I mean the key is going to be the dollar. If the dollar holds up against other currencies we can keep importing. But if the dollar really tanks, what's
Anthony Pompliano
the all time high inflation number?
Peter Schiff
Well, the highest we got officially in the 1970s we might have got 14 or 15%. But we don't measure prices that way anymore. I mean if we got to 14 or 15% again it'd be like 25 or something because it's completely dishonest. Now the way, I mean pretty much a typical year now the way we measure it would be a bad year if we measured it more accurately. And a lot of people again don't understand. They think that inflation was something that we got under Biden. We've been having inflation, you know, from one president to the next. We haven't been honest about reporting it. But the real big increase in inflation that we had in 2021, 2022 started under Trump in 2020. With COVID it was the COVID monetary policy, the massive increase in the Fed balance sheet that happened in 2020. Interest rates got slashed to zero. In 2020, Donald Trump signed the PPP and all that massive stimulus spending. And even if you go back and look at when the CPI really started to go up, it was the last three or four months of Trump and then it continued during the first few months of Biden, even though Biden hadn't done anything yet. None of Biden's bills had been passed. So it started. So even if Trump had a second term consecutively, inflation in 2021, 2022 would have been pretty much as bad as it was under Biden. Trump got lucky in that he got out of dodge and he was able to claim that it was Biden's inflation. It wasn't. Now Biden didn't do anything to help it. Biden's policies made it worse.
Anthony Pompliano
It's like if there's a book, it's like the trillion dollar men, they both are passing multitrillion dollar bills.
Peter Schiff
But now inflation, it went way up and then it pulled back. So the last two years of Biden, the official inflation numbers were coming down. And so when Trump came in, he inherited that trend. But now inflation has bottomed out and now it's headed back up and it's going to. And I think just like Biden had the highest inflation during his first year too, Trump's going to have the highest inflation during his last. And yeah, that's going to be a big problem.
Anthony Pompliano
You think that we could see double digit inflation under Trump in the second two last two years of his.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, yeah. And certainly by the last year. And a lot of it depends on what happens to the dollar. But if the dollar is as weak as I think it could be, then yeah. And if the bond market breaks, because a lot of the impetus for inflation is going to come from the bond market because right now we're at 4.65 on a 10 year and 515 now
Anthony Pompliano
on a 30 year, is that good?
Peter Schiff
No, not when you have a lot of debt. Right. But I think maybe around 5% on the 10 year. We've already got there beyond on the 30 year, but we get to 5% on the 10 year and now we might be 5.7 on the 30 year at that point. That could be the breaking point for the market.
Anthony Pompliano
What would Kevin Warsh and the Fed do in that scenario, you think?
Peter Schiff
Well, I think they're going to buy the bonds. I think they're going to monetize it. Because the alternative is something that politically they can't deal with because that would be defaults. That would be more bank failures. Imagine what would happen to the housing market if mortgage rates are now 8, 9%. I mean, it's already the most unaffordable it's ever been. But interest on the national debt, just in May, I think was the last number I saw. If you annualized the interest payments, and I'm not netting out what the government pays itself, just total interest expense, it annualized to 1.6 trillion a year. That number keeps rising. But if the Fed doesn't do something to bring rates down, you're going to be over 2 trillion very quickly in interest expense.
Anthony Pompliano
And can we stop anything? What could we do?
Peter Schiff
What do you mean?
Anthony Pompliano
Well, obviously we could stop spending money, which.
Peter Schiff
Well, yeah, well, that, yeah, but what else could.
Anthony Pompliano
What are there other options?
Peter Schiff
Well, we could raise taxes or we could cut spending. We could reduce the deficit, but the size of the tax hikes or the spending cuts would be substantial. And it couldn't be spending cuts in name only where the spending cuts don't kick in for five years. They would actually have to cut spending so that people who are getting checks from the government get smaller checks. Right Now I have a crazy idea.
Anthony Pompliano
We know that Social Security is one of the biggest line item issues that we're facing. We also see that the budget office and you know, these different groups, they all think that we're going to run out of money in Social Security 2032, 2033, maybe 2034, maybe 2031, depending on how things go. We are still making that promise to people right now. We're telling them, if you keep paying into this, we're going to pay you in 2065 or, you know, whatever the year is, right? So if we could stop making the promise to net new people, that's different than saying to people, we already made the promise 20, 30 years ago, saying, hey, we know we promised you this thing, but we're not going to pay you. So if we could preserve the people that we already made the promise to, but stop making the promise to net new people, that again, it wouldn't solve the current problem, but at least it would change a little bit of the scenario.
Peter Schiff
It's not even enough to make a difference because I think obviously 20, 30 year olds that are paying Social Security taxes, they have no chance at ever seeing a Social Security tax.
Anthony Pompliano
So here's my idea. Is the Invest America accounts, these Trump accounts, Invest America accounts. If instead money is going into those accounts. Right. The government starts with a thousand bucks, but if people can start to donate directly to the people.
Peter Schiff
But you mean instead of paying Social Security tax.
Anthony Pompliano
Correct.
Peter Schiff
Then that just makes the problem worse right now. Well, because the government needs the Social Security taxes to pay the people that it made the promise to 50 years
Anthony Pompliano
ago, but the people today are still going to have to pay that tax regardless. Yeah. The government's not going to stop.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, there's a lot of people who do a lot of philanthropy. So hold on. Just hear me out for a second. So if we go and we give however many kids, 20 million kids, whatever the number is, these Trump accounts, these Invest America accounts, who's going to give them the money? Well, the government is starting with $1,000.
Peter Schiff
Yeah. But they had to borrow that money, so that's actually a net negative because those kids are going to inherit that debt. They'd be better off without the debt and without the Trump accounts.
Anthony Pompliano
Hold on. Now. There's a bunch of people who every single year donate money and rather than them give it to all these NGOs and bureaucratic organizations and all of the nonsense that has become this, like, global, you know, philanthropic network, they took that same money and they said, hey, I'm just going to give it direct to the kids. The reason why I like the Invest America accounts is because you can make a donation and nobody gets their greasy little fingers on the money. There's no middleman in terms of an NGO or a bureaucratic organization. You are depositing the money directly into someone's account, and so you're giving.
Peter Schiff
You were free to do that without the Trump accounts.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, how are you going to. Let's say that, for example, you said, hey, I am in Puerto Rico and I want to adopt all of the kids in my local area. How would you give them 200 bucks each?
Peter Schiff
Oh, you can just somehow make one contribution and someone's going to divvy it up.
Anthony Pompliano
So that's what. That's what people have been doing. So, for example, Michael Dell has given like $5 billion, and it's being divvied up among a bunch of kids. Brad.
Peter Schiff
Each kid. Because as a max, each kid could get a maximum. I think $5,000 a year.
Anthony Pompliano
Correct. And so here's what I think is interesting, is now all of a sudden those kids again, different than the people who are owed Social Security now. But those kids, we don't need to promise them Social Security because they are getting money directly from other citizens. Citizens are getting a philanthropic write off. They're getting a tax break for doing it. And so what you do is you don't solve the existing problem.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, but the money that they're getting in these so called accounts is less than what they're paying in Social Security taxes. So they're still worse off.
Anthony Pompliano
The problem, the kids aren't paying anything in Social Security.
Peter Schiff
Well, well, I guess when they're 1
Anthony Pompliano
and 2 or 3 or 16, 17.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, but when they start working, they start paying a payroll tax if they start to work. The problem is the government created Ponzi scheme in the first place and lied to people and claimed that it was some kind of insurance program and that they were established in these trust funds and that out of the trust funds the benefits would be paid. When the trust funds were a scam. In fact, you said they're running out of money. They ran out of money a long time ago. They never had any money. The minute they got money, the government took it and just deposited its own iou.
Anthony Pompliano
And that was the other problem is they should have put in the equity market rather than the bond market.
Peter Schiff
Well, yeah, or they should have bought German bonds or somebody else. Not their own bonds, but they loaned the money to themselves.
Anthony Pompliano
Genius.
Peter Schiff
But the problem is right now, this is not because for many, many years the government collected more in Social Security taxes than it paid out in benefits. And so that's what built up the so called trust fund because the government took the excess and loaned it to itself. But what's been happening now since even before COVID the current Social Security payroll taxes don't cover the obligations today of the recipients. And so what the Social Security trust fund is doing is selling government bonds to cover the shortfall. Well, even if those trust funds didn't exist, that's exactly what the government would do. They would sell bonds to pay the beneficiaries. So that's what's happening right now. When they're talking about running out of money, they're just running out of bonds. Bonds in one pocket. They obviously have the ability to issue new bonds. They would just now have to acknowledge it. And right now that's part of the money that they don't try to claim. Well, we don't really owe that because the government owes it to itself. But the unfunded Social Security liabilities are enormous. They're tens and tens of billions of dollars. And then you got the unfunded Medicare liabilities. I mean, the unfunded obligation of the United states are over $100 trillion. I mean, they're much bigger than the funded debt, the $40 trillion national debt. So we're completely broke when you look at all of the obligations. So what we really should do with Social Security is acknowledge the fact that it's broke and abandon the whole system.
Anthony Pompliano
Just, you think, Just tell everyone that we said, we're going to give you the money. Just say, hey, sorry, we're not giving you the money.
Peter Schiff
Well, the money's not there. So the only way we can get the money is to steal it from the young kids.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, 100%.
Peter Schiff
I don't think it's.
Anthony Pompliano
We should, by the way. That's like, people don't like when they hear this, but, like, that's pretty much like the boomer strategy is the only way that they want their. To monetize their homes. They want young people to pay up a significant amount.
Peter Schiff
Well, that's what Trump wants. Trump wants to keep home prices high so the boomers can stay rich.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, that's what I'm saying. It is a very. And I use boomer as, like, a loving term. Right?
Peter Schiff
Yeah. Because I'm a boomer.
Anthony Pompliano
I know it's fine. And a lot of it is predicated on the next generation will pay the existing generation. And so Social Security, home prices, equity prices. Right. But now all of a sudden, you got a bunch of people who are saying, wait a minute. Either I can't afford it, I don't have the money. I maybe don't want a job where I make enough to pay all this stuff to fund this stuff. Or they will say some version of, I'm going to try to create some sort of political change to get out of this. Sit. Yeah, it's a very fascinating thing.
Peter Schiff
Yeah. Look, I want to let home prices come down, which is what they would do absent government propping them up. And then it would be a lot more affordable. And I, I don't think that younger people should be paying payroll taxes so that older people, you know, can play golf. And, and, you know, we, we need to get rid of Social Security. Now, I understand that if we eliminate Social Security, there are some people, unfortunately, who, without a Social Security check, they don't eat. So we have to deal with that problem as a welfare issue. And so I would be in favor of a temporarily phased out, means tested substitute for Social Security.
Anthony Pompliano
What does that mean? That sounds like a word sell. What's that mean?
Peter Schiff
No, I mean like a welfare program. Call it what it is. I mean, people think, hey, I paid into Social Security. Yeah, but the government stole all your money. It's gone. Right. So there's nothing we can do about it. Right.
Anthony Pompliano
So this is like the equivalent. Remember when Leon Cooperman went on CNBC during COVID and he's like, I'm a billionaire and I got a PPP check? He's like, how the hell did I get paid? This is all nonsense.
Peter Schiff
He must have applied for one. They didn't just give them to you?
Anthony Pompliano
No, it was. It wasn't like a traditional PPP check. It was like, remember when they did the, like, trump bucks or whatever? Like they gave out like twelve hundred dollars and it was all based on whatever income you reported.
Peter Schiff
Yeah. Look like my Social Security could be canceled. I'm fine with that. I don't need it. I paid it.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you get a Social Security check?
Peter Schiff
No, no, but I mean, I paid the same as that. Look, I do not. I should not get a Social Security check. There are a lot of people.
Anthony Pompliano
That's very honorable of you.
Peter Schiff
Well, but yeah, there's a lot of people who shouldn't get a Social Security check because look where the money is coming from. You're taxing young, poor people to subsidize rich older people. And in many cases, what you're doing is you're allowing rich people to die with a larger estate that their children will inherit. So you're basically subsidizing the inheritance of one kid by taxing another kid who's not going to inherit anything. So if you have assets and you have wealth, then you need to spend your own money to cover your retirement. And if that means your kids don't inherit anything, well, they don't inherit anything. But you can't tax some other kid who's not going to inherit anything anyway. So it's like if you have assets, if you have income, you can't get Social Security.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you own Bitcoin?
Peter Schiff
No, I don't own Bitcoin. Yeah, I know. Unfortunately, people that have bitcoin are going to be in a lot of trouble too. They're going to probably need some kind of bailout.
Anthony Pompliano
You think so?
Peter Schiff
Well, hopefully people aren't going to lose their retirement money in bitcoin, but unfortunately, there's a lot of young people that have got money in Bitcoin that they're going to lose.
Anthony Pompliano
I'm looking right now. So today's episode is brought to you by blowfin. If you're actively trading crypto, then you already know the platform matters. Execution speed matters, liquidity matters, and reliability during volatile markets. That definitely matters. That's why more traders are starting to use blowfin. They built a trading platform focused on fast execution, deep liquidity, advanced futures products, and a really, really clean user experience. They don't over complicate things. You can trade hundreds of spot and perpetual pairs. They integrate directly with TradingView. And they've built a platform for both active traders and people who are just getting started. Security is a major focus. Obviously assets are custody with fireblocks. They provide proof of reserves and they've built a strong reputation for platform stability during those high volatility environments. And to celebrate the partnership with us, Blowfin is now giving away $100,000. That's right, Blofin is gonna give away $100,000 in deposit and trading rewards. So if you're looking for a better place to trade crypto, go check them out today using our link in the description. Again, that's blowfin, the trading platform built for serious crypto traders. Go sign up, Pay attention because you're giving away $100,000 in deposit and trading rewards. Today's episode is brought to you by mogul. Legendary VC investor Tim Drapery. He bought 29,656 Bitcoin. He did it at a price of $632. In 2014, that trade is up roughly 100 times. Clearly he knows a winner when he sees one. Now he's backing our new partner, Mogul. Mogul is a real estate investment platform that puts property ownership on the blockchain. The founders built Goldman Sachs institutional single family rental program and they deployed over a billion dollars into it. Then they left to bring that same strategy to investors like you and me. They've launched over 100 properties with 18.8% average annual IRR, roughly three times the other platforms. You get ownership in institutional quality rental homes, monthly rental income, real time appreciation, tax benefits, and no tenant calls. Long story short, Draper backed it. The founders built the model at Goldman and now you can get all the financial benefits of real estate. Just head over to Mogul Club pompompomp. Not mogul.commogul.club pomp. And you can see important disclosures at disclaimer. Mogul Club. Today, gold is up 21. Over the last year, Bitcoin is down 45%. That means you're winning.
Peter Schiff
It's gold versus Bitcoin is the game.
Anthony Pompliano
And then the s, P is up 18. So gold's outperforming the S and P over the last year. Bitcoin is negative. But if you go back 10 years, the compound annual growth rate of bitcoin has been 60%, gold has been 12, and the S&P has been 13. So actually, over the last decade, gold and the S and P have pretty much given the same exact return. And then bitcoin has been substantially more. Now, I know people will say, oh, it's because it started a smaller base, it was a much smaller asset, blah, blah, blah, whatever.
Peter Schiff
Yeah. You can't just dismiss that. That's the key.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, you can look at last four years, Bitcoin is compounded at 31%, gold is compounded at 24, and the S&P is compounded at 17.
Peter Schiff
All right, but that's only because bitcoin had a lot of volatility over the last four or five years. So it really.
Anthony Pompliano
That's like saying, you know, she gave birth to me. That's why she's my mother, like, of course.
Peter Schiff
Well, look, most people who have bought bitcoin over the last five years are losing money. That's basically reality. Over the last, what, five years? Five years, yeah. If you've been buying bitcoin, the compound
Anthony Pompliano
annual growth rate of bitcoin over the last five years. 14%.
Peter Schiff
Okay. So Michael Saylor is the biggest buyer of bitcoin in the world. He's been buying for over five years. And his. He's down. His average cost is 75,000 on 60 some odd billion worth of Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is 65,000. He's down 10,000 per Bitcoin after having bought it over five years. So if his experience is typical of other people who have been average. Whoa. I mean, he's been buying every week for years and years and years, and he's losing money. Losing money.
Anthony Pompliano
But.
Peter Schiff
But what?
Anthony Pompliano
There is a huge reason for that, is because as he has grown in size, he has more and more access to capital. And so.
Peter Schiff
And he bought bitcoin with it.
Anthony Pompliano
Correct. He's accelerated the purchases. Now, if you bought the same amount every single day or week for the last four or five years, the same amount the whole time, then you would be up significantly. You would not be down.
Peter Schiff
Well, yeah, obviously he. He spent a lot more money when bitcoin was higher than he did when.
Anthony Pompliano
Hence why he is down.
Peter Schiff
Yes, yes.
Anthony Pompliano
That's how math works.
Peter Schiff
Okay, I guess I will concede that point.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, that's great.
Peter Schiff
But if you look at it, it's
Anthony Pompliano
like a therapy session.
Peter Schiff
But it's. Bitcoin first got to 64,000 in April of 2021.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
It's barely higher than that now. Bitcoin got to 69,000 in November of 2021. It's lower than that now. So bitcoin has not made any progress at all from where it was in 2021, from those highs. That is a significant development.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, that is true today. Yes, but hold on. But if you fast forward or if you go rewind four months ago or five months ago, that was not true. So because of the volatility, you can pick. Hold on, you can pick. Okay, let me go back four years to the absolute top of that market and then let me pick the bottom of this market.
Peter Schiff
And then. Well, I'm not, I'm just saying here's where we are now. Okay, Forgetting about.
Anthony Pompliano
You're like a technical analysis guy. Don't you guys draw like imaginary lines from tops and bottoms and they line up.
Peter Schiff
The other thing that you have to factor in is, okay, what has happened in the crypto industry over these last five years and all the things that have happened are things that were positive for bitcoin. Creating more demand for bitcoin. The introduction of ETFs that didn't exist five years ago, the creation of bitcoin treasury companies, not just strategy, but all the other ones. Countries like El Salvador, countries having bitcoin reserves, the strategic US Reserve, Donald Trump, a bitcoin cabinet, make America the bitcoin capital, all these things to try to generate more demand, more adoption, more people. Yet despite all that stuff, the price is not higher than it was five years ago.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, it went 2x higher. It went 2x higher briefly.
Peter Schiff
It couldn't stay there. It couldn't sustain it.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, gold is down how much from its all time high?
Peter Schiff
Yeah, not quite 20%. About.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, let's call 20%. Hold on, but just think about this for a second. So if gold's down 20% from its high and Bitcoin is down 50% from its all time high, which about the right numbers. Gold's volatility, I don't know what it is, but bitcoin, let's call it like 35, 40 volume asset. So you would expect that ratio to generally hold. So both gold and bitcoin are down off its all time highs when they go back up, which I think that both of us believe Bitcoin and gold will go back up, then you should expect for bitcoin to outperform.
Peter Schiff
I don't know why you'd expect anything of the sort. But if you go back to 2021, when Bitcoin peaked out at above 60,000, gold peaked out below 1900.
Anthony Pompliano
But for a decade before that, it was pretty much flat.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, right. But gold is double what it was in 2021 and Bitcoin is below where it was in 2021.
Anthony Pompliano
I could pick a random date. Let's go back to 2010.
Peter Schiff
It's not a random date. I'm just picking the high point. But the public in America for sure invested, spent a lot more money buying bitcoin. They did buying gold. They would have been much better off had they bought gold.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you think so?
Peter Schiff
Yeah. There wasn't much retail demand for gold. In fact, again, if you look at the ETFs there, they told me Costco was.
Anthony Pompliano
It was popping.
Peter Schiff
That was recently the Costco started selling some physical gold. But there's not that many Costco's. You know, I mean it's, you know, I mean it's. We talking about a suburban kind of McDonald's. Like there's one year. Like there's not as many of them. But given all that stuff that has happened, that's a significant development that has failed to cause bitcoin to go up. So I think that you have to just throw out the early returns for the first 10 years.
Anthony Pompliano
Oh, if I was you, I'd want to do that too.
Peter Schiff
No, no, because I think they're irrelevant. Because if you're always going to go Back to day one, let's say five years from now, five years from now, Bitcoin is at 10,000. Say it's a 10,000 in five years. You could still say, well, over the past 20 years it's outperformed everything and you'd be correct. But it would be such an irrelevant time period for the vast majority of people who own it.
Anthony Pompliano
But over the next five years, do you think bitcoin outperforms gold?
Peter Schiff
No, I think it goes down. I think five years from now, bitcoin will be lower than it is today. Really? Yeah.
Anthony Pompliano
Why?
Peter Schiff
Well, same reason it's lower than it was five years ago. I just think that there's more people that are going to want to get rid of it than who are going to want to buy. Doesn't generate a return. It doesn't generate any income.
Anthony Pompliano
Neither does gold.
Peter Schiff
But gold has the actual use, which is, I mean, It's a metal. It's a precious metal. It's used in all kinds of things. Well, here I have some in my watch.
Anthony Pompliano
7% of gold is jewelry.
Peter Schiff
Well, about 50% of the demand every year is from jewelry. So it's a lot of the new demand. But look, central banks use it as a reserve asset. It's now, it's replaced treasuries now, and it's heading much higher as far as its percentage of reserves. And as the dollar comes under pressure, central banks de dollarizing by definition is buying gold. That's what they're doing. But I think that you're going to have more people who own bitcoin who want to buy it. I mean, want to sell it, Right? People bought it a long time ago. No, people who bought it a long time ago are going to look to spend it, sell it, do something with it. But to the extent that you want crypto to use it as a medium of exchange, there are better alternatives than bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano
I'll make a bet with that.
Peter Schiff
And tokenized gold I think will be. Let's make a bet much more useful.
Anthony Pompliano
We should bet one bitcoin five years from now that bitcoin outperforms gold. You send me a bitcoin. If gold outperforms bitcoin, I send you a bitcoin.
Peter Schiff
Well, yeah, well, you can't send me. Well, if you send me gold, I have. I mean, I have.
Anthony Pompliano
You can't sell it. That's a great bet.
Peter Schiff
That's a great bet. I have one bet with a friend of mine. That's the only bet I have on bitcoin and the open bet I have. And we've been making bets back and forth, but we have an ounce of gold, and if it hits 50,000.
Anthony Pompliano
Gold hits 50,000.
Peter Schiff
No, Bitcoin hits 50,000, I win. If it hits 150,000, I lose. So we made the bet a while ago. It was when it was closer was what would it go first, 150 or 50? I took the 50.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
But we got announced and go.
Anthony Pompliano
My bet was pretty good, right?
Peter Schiff
Your bet is a five years. I don't know if you believe what you're saying.
Anthony Pompliano
Let's make a bet in that from today. If bitcoin outperforms gold, then you give me a bitcoin. But if bitcoin does not outperform gold, I'll give you a bitcoin.
Peter Schiff
But what about the gold? What if bitcoin is actually less than gold? I still just get the bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, it's a bet.
Peter Schiff
So we're. So we're betting a bitcoin, but I don't have any bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano
That's fine. You can use one of those changers. You know, you send cash, it'll send me a bitcoin.
Peter Schiff
I'd have to go. I'd have to go buy you a bitcoin. I don't know. That's fine, because what if it goes up? I'm, like, unhedged on that. I like.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, I'm unhedged if it goes down.
Peter Schiff
No, you own bitcoin. You just give me one of your bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano
All right, so we got a deal.
Peter Schiff
I'll think about it. I'd have to buy. I think that it's. I think that bitcoin is likely to go down. I think. Okay, so then I'm more likely so that you would win the bet, but I don't have any bitcoin. So if it goes up.
Anthony Pompliano
No, I'll give you your first.
Peter Schiff
What I'd have to do is I'd have to go buy a bitcoin. Then if it went up, I would have it. But now I. I'm screwed.
Anthony Pompliano
I give you the first bitcoin if it went down.
Peter Schiff
But now. But now, if it goes down, I'm. I'm. Now I'm dead. I'm dead if it goes down because I bought it.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you use Sylvia? I never brought this earlier. You don't even know what Sylvia is. No, it's like your Uncle Peter. This is Aunt Sylvia. We got to get you on Sylvia. Like, this is. You've been in the.
Peter Schiff
What is that?
Anthony Pompliano
Your company? You've been in the investment business for how long now? A long time, right? 30 years? 40 years? 100 years? How long?
Peter Schiff
Not 100 years, but 30 years is closer to it.
Anthony Pompliano
All right, 30 years. The two biggest things that my problem with the traditional financial system is one, they think that individuals are idiots. They basically look at them and they're the sucker at the table. Wall street is designing products and services to move the individual's money from their bank account to the. To the bank or to the financial institution account.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
I think you and I probably see very similarly that the individuals are probably smarter and should take more responsibility for their finances than what the institution can credit for. The second thing is all this new technology is really powerful if used correctly. And so we built this product, Sylvia, that you go, you hook up all your financial accounts, so you give the context to the AI and you talk to it. You ask it you know, how do I get my tax rate down? How do I, you know, optimize my cash position? Or I'm looking at this stock or whatever. And the thing that we see that is really interesting is you get personalized insights. And where I think that that's pretty powerful is that the more assets you have, the more complexity in your financial life, the more valuable the AI is.
Peter Schiff
Right.
Anthony Pompliano
Because it's good at the complexity. So you're, like, the perfect person. You're rich, you're smart, you understand some technology. You should use Sylvia.
Peter Schiff
But what do you have to do with Sylvia?
Anthony Pompliano
No, we built it. We built it for myself. We built it for myself. So my whole thing was, where'd you
Peter Schiff
get the name Sylvia?
Anthony Pompliano
It would have been my next kid if I had a little girl, because nobody names.
Peter Schiff
It's a nice name. You don't get a lot with an
Anthony Pompliano
I, S, I, L, V, I. Yeah, right. So the. The. The key, though, is I was trying to use ChatGPT, and I was like, screenshot stuff and uploading it, whatever, but it's a pain in the ass. So I said, why don't we just build the own thing? And so, like, what do you use to manage all of your finance? You just got a spreadsheet?
Peter Schiff
I don't have to. I got people for that.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah. Okay.
Peter Schiff
What do they use? I don't know. Right.
Anthony Pompliano
But, like, don't you want to know the answers? Like, rather than call them up and be like, hey, how much cash is it right now? Or, like, what, you know, what's the positions?
Peter Schiff
Or whatever? I don't know. I have to look at. I'll have to look into it. But, you know, I did. I did, so I did in thinking about your bet. So if we do the bet.
Anthony Pompliano
Oh, see, you're interested.
Peter Schiff
No, because here's the. Here's the dynamics of that bet. So let's say you're right and bitcoin goes to $200,000.
Anthony Pompliano
You got to give me 200,000.
Peter Schiff
Right. And if I'm right, and bitcoin goes to 5,000, all I win is $5,000.
Anthony Pompliano
Of course, Peter. That's why I designed the bet the way I designed it.
Peter Schiff
Right? So if we were to do a bet like that, we should just bet an ounce of gold either way, so it's irrelevant. What?
Anthony Pompliano
I designed the bed specifically for a reason.
Peter Schiff
Because if I lose, I don't. If I win, I don't win much.
Anthony Pompliano
I mean, my friend, it took you six minutes to figure that one out. I'm Surprised it took so long?
Peter Schiff
No, no, but I wanted to put it in like, in clear terms. The risk reward for me is just like, you know.
Anthony Pompliano
All right, last thing I want to talk about is, have I ever told you my theory on the crazy uncle portfolio? I feel like you're the crazy uncle you.
Peter Schiff
But you got a Peter Schiff portfolio.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, crazy uncle.
Peter Schiff
It should be doing the crazy uncle
Anthony Pompliano
portfolio is the following. He's going to do really well. It's the thing that your crazy uncle would do and talk about when he comes drunk to Thanksgiving dinner. He talks about land, gold, bitcoin and guns. And I feel like those are the four things that if you had a portfolio of them, would do incredibly well over the next decade.
Peter Schiff
Well, land. Well, look, land is scarce. And even if AI makes labor obsolete, it's not going to make land obsolete. We need land. In fact, land will probably be in more demand, especially, you know, certain types of land. Okay, but I, you know, I like rather than raw land, I like income producing properties. Right. You know, so you generate.
Anthony Pompliano
You don't like that raw land?
Peter Schiff
Well, look, if you have a lot of money, I mean, the problem is, you know, if you have to, if you have to pay taxes on the land and, and you're not collecting any rents. Right. It's like a drain.
Anthony Pompliano
So you like income producing.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, it's good to have as an investment.
Anthony Pompliano
Like what? Like timber?
Peter Schiff
Yeah, yeah, timber is good because you can keep growing it. Yeah.
Anthony Pompliano
And then what about like blueberry farms?
Peter Schiff
Blueberries are great to farm because they're high margin. Yeah, you just got to see, I know up here, you know, you got to do it down in South America
Anthony Pompliano
and stuff because you're surprised I know that, right?
Peter Schiff
Blueberries. Yeah, I got some friends who are blueberry farmers.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah.
Peter Schiff
Okay. But yeah, there are a lot of high margin crops. You know, look at coffee. Good friend of mine who's into bitcoin actually is a. Now a coffee is making a ton in his coffee call. Look at coffee prices. All time record highs that.
Anthony Pompliano
You know what coffee is, right? That's the gasoline for humans.
Peter Schiff
All right, but so I like land. I like, I like gold.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
I like, I like guns. Well, you got it. Yeah.
Anthony Pompliano
Guns and ammunition.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, but you don't need to have that much money in your guns and ammunition.
Anthony Pompliano
No, no, I'm saying, but like if the inflation is real and there's.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, look, ammunition is going to have value. You can even barter it. You know, if you need, you know,
Anthony Pompliano
if you have extra, you're Sounding more and more like the crazy uncle as you're talking.
Peter Schiff
But yeah, I.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, then you like bitcoin.
Peter Schiff
No, you don't. You know that now that would be crazy. There's no, you know, there's no reason to have bitcoin in there. It doesn't really, I mean, look again, you know, it's, it's unfortunate that, you know, you and so many, you know, younger people are in bitcoin. Although it's even worse for the older guys that are gotten, that are in bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano
But yeah, look, you should say younger and better looking younger.
Peter Schiff
But look, bitcoin was great for some people. I mean, I know people whose lives have been very positively impacted because they got into bitcoin when they did get into bitcoin. And for them it's life changing and they made a tremendous amount of money and it's great. But for the people who got into bitcoin in recent years, it's going to be the opposite experience. Now for some people, it could also be life changing in a bad way if they end up losing their everything that they've had to the extent that people didn't put too much money into bitcoin and then they ended up losing it. Okay, lesson learned. Move on. Don't do that again. But there are going to be people who just put too much in. People that listen to Michael Saylor and put everything in bitcoin and borrowed money to buy bitcoin and sold off their organs to buy bitcoin, whatever the hell he was getting people to do. Which is why I specifically don't like this stuff that he says because he does encourage excess speculation in a highly speculative asset and then downplays it. And he did it even worse with Stretch when he was telling people how safe it was. It was like a bank account, you know, with a 10% yield. Yeah. You know, but you know, if you bought, if you put money into that bank, you've already lost 15% if you wanted to cash out right now. But you know, he's encouraged some real risk taking and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in these products and a lot of people are going to lose money that they can't afford to lose.
Anthony Pompliano
What do you like in your portfolio? Like, what have you changed in your portfolio?
Peter Schiff
I mean, I haven't really changed anything. I've been investing in the same stuff
Anthony Pompliano
for a long time.
Peter Schiff
For a long time. And I mean, obviously I'd have done better if I had had more tech exposure. I have some Tech exposure. And I've had some tech stocks that have done really, really well.
Anthony Pompliano
Like which ones?
Peter Schiff
Well, my best one, like a really micron investor. Yeah. My best one percentage wise is the stock Delta Electronics. You can look it up in Thailand.
Anthony Pompliano
In Thailand, yeah. How you find that?
Peter Schiff
Well, I found it 20 years ago and you know, it's almost 100 times what I paid for it. So it's, it's done. Good.
Anthony Pompliano
So in 20 years you made 100x on a Thailand paper?
Peter Schiff
Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay. Why didn't you sell at all? I mean, when you were up 50x, you didn't want to sell?
Peter Schiff
Well, I didn't really get up 50x until last couple of years.
Anthony Pompliano
Oh, so it's all like in the last couple.
Peter Schiff
Well, not all, but I mean it went up, you know, you know, the AI has helped it, you know, the demand for data centers and stuff. But, but like a stock like that.
Anthony Pompliano
But I have, like you went and you, you found it, you analyzed that one single stock and pick.
Peter Schiff
I didn't actually find it. I hadn't, you know, we, we bought it for managed accounts. I remember we bought, we're buying it for our customers and I bought some for myself and unfortunately I, I think we ended up selling that one for customers. I just never sold it. But when we saw, you know, and it didn't go anywhere for years and years I had it in my portfolio and I just, you know, just left it there.
Anthony Pompliano
All right, what else do you like?
Peter Schiff
Well, I mean, you know, more than half my portfolio is mining, you know, and, and, and that was gold mining, mostly gold and silver, but also copper and nickel and you know, metals in general.
Anthony Pompliano
Those have done well.
Peter Schiff
Yeah, yeah. Recently, especially last few years, I've done well. But some of my stocks, you know, a lot, I had a lot of royalty. Companies did really, really well, you know, the whole time that gold was going up. Because, you know, when I first started buying gold and I owned physical gold and silver too, but when I first started buying these physical metals, gold was five bucks. And I mean, silver was five bucks. Gold, yeah. Silver, gold, back to gold was under $300. Now gold was never five bucks. I mean even, you know, but silver was a dollar for a long time. But, but recently when I, you know, when I started my business, my broker dealer in the 1990s and one of the things that we were doing for clients was encouraging them to buy gold and silver. And we actually were working with the Perth Mint back then and we were setting up accounts in the 1990s for our brokerage customers where they can own physical gold and silver and I was you know buying them at the Perth mint and it was $5 an ounce, $6 an ounce and now it's 60.
Anthony Pompliano
60.
Peter Schiff
Yeah.
Anthony Pompliano
We got 12x.
Peter Schiff
Yeah and but this was silver. This was a safe thing. This wasn't you know it wasn't a really risky deal and and when we were buying gold it was under 300. But even though we had this big increase in gold and silver, gold and silver stocks did not do what I expected them to do relative to gold and silver because the cost of mining went up so much over the years that that increase in the cost of mining, you know took away a lot
Anthony Pompliano
of the benefit Turn of the. So let's.
Peter Schiff
But some of the royal But I owned a lot. I owned some royalty companies like Silver, Wheaton, Franco, Nevad, Agneagle, Eagle and these stocks did extremely well.
Anthony Pompliano
They benefited let's say that gold and silver both around 12 to 15x sounds like since from when you started buying them to today. Ish. What did the mining companies on average you think versus the royalty companies?
Peter Schiff
Not nearly as well. The royal companies. Most of my royalty companies are about the same as the metal up 10x or they've kept but a lot of the mining stocks have only doubled or tripled and some are you know, some are you know even lower than prices that I paid but I averaged like you know what I did personally over time is when the stock sold off 20, 30, 40% I bought more. Yeah right. What I didn't do and what I could have done is sold into the big rallies and then bought back and sold. So you know I, I didn't do it perfectly but I've just been accumulating these positions and you know obviously I've had a decent drawdown from where I was in February, March, not enough yet that I've been buying more for myself. I would encourage people who don't have significant exposure to be buying this pullback. It's not quite big enough for me to think I need more because I already have so much I've been adding to other things and I'm actually holding some cash now because I think we might get a bigger pullback in the overall markets especially if I if we get to break down the bond market which could put a scare into the equity markets. You know looking what's look at SpaceX breaking down and you know there could be some other high profile names.
Anthony Pompliano
Would you ever buy SpaceX stock at a certain price?
Peter Schiff
Well At a certain price, Yeah, I mean I'm just not interested in it at the current price.
Anthony Pompliano
Is there a level like a hundred
Peter Schiff
dollar stock I have to look at what the company. I mean, I think, you know, I mean the same thing with Tesla. I mean these are very expensive stocks. They're more like a meme stock. But yeah, there's a lot of potential there. I just don't know how to value it. I'd rather buy something that I'm more comfortable with, obviously if I could have got in on the ground floor of it or something like that. Elon Musk is a trillionaire based on the market cap of these companies. I don't expect that he's going to stay a trillionaire unless we're all trillionaires. Right. One day we could be because of inflation. But it won't really mean anything. But I think there's going to be some major blow ups. I think one of the big blow ups is going to be strategy. I think that company is going to completely implode.
Anthony Pompliano
You think so?
Peter Schiff
And that's going to impact crypto and a big decline. And we could have a big decline in bitcoin and crypto which could also spill over into other risk assets, overall economy.
Anthony Pompliano
So there's a difference between not performing well versus a blow up?
Peter Schiff
Yeah, yeah. I mean just getting killed.
Anthony Pompliano
Oh, so you don't think it'll like blow up, like go to zero? You're saying that just not perform well?
Peter Schiff
No, no, I mean, well, I mean ultimately I think strategy will, I think the equity, the common stock will be worthless for strategy. I think whatever's left over will go to the debtors and the preferred shareholders. So I don't think there's going to be enough leftover for the common stockholders. And they're already being sacrificed right now. I mean every week they get diluted because, you know, Saylor doesn't want to sell bitcoin so he sells what he can sell, which is common. But every time he sells common, the bitcoin per share for the common goes down. And so the common stock is worth less and less and less every time he sells more shares because he keeps creating more supply. But he's not adding any value, he's diminishing the value. But no, I could see a major crash in that stock and the preferreds. But if bitcoin goes down too, I mean if bitcoin holds, but if bitcoin breaks, let's say I win my bet where it breaks 50,000. I think if Bitcoin breaks 50,000, it could go straight to 20, 30,000 very quickly. And you're laughing like that's not a low price. Bitcoin was below 20,000 in 2020. I understand it's not that long ago.
Anthony Pompliano
The reason I'm laughing is not because of what you're saying. It's just that why not say 2000 like I know you well enough that you're just like what's the lowest number I could.
Peter Schiff
It doesn't have to go to 2000 for this to happen. I'm giving you, I'm giving you a price.
Anthony Pompliano
Do you think bitcoin has bottomed?
Peter Schiff
No, not even close.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, what do you think the actual. If you had to pick a number, what do you think the bottom of the bitcoin market is for this bear market?
Peter Schiff
Oh well, you know, I mean even if it is bottom now at the 58,000 and you know we technically rise, right. You know, I don't know that we make a new high and then we just go down. I understand, but I think, I don't think, I don't. But I don't think this particular bear cycle is over. So I do think that, you know,
Anthony Pompliano
there could be a lower low.
Peter Schiff
We're going to make it lower low than that. 58,000. I think around 50,000 could do it. But if you really look at the charts, if it gets down there, I don't see why it's going to stop. And 20,000 to me, 20, 30,000 is still a big number for bitcoin. It's a lot to pay for nothing. And if you look at the long term trend line, that's about where the support is. 20, 30,000 is somewhere around there. That's where, you know, the long term uptrend is. Which once we break that then yeah, you are talking 2,000 and lower. Well, not. But it's not going to take two thousand dollar Bitcoin to break strategy. We need to get 20, 20, 30.
Anthony Pompliano
Where do you want to send people after they listen to all.
Peter Schiff
I don't want to. You never. I'm, I'm, you know, well what I want to do, my goal, I gotta, I gotta catch you in X followers. In X followers you got 2.2 million people that follow you.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, how many you got?
Peter Schiff
1.6 million.
Anthony Pompliano
You ain't never gonna catch no.
Peter Schiff
I'm gonna catch it. No.
Anthony Pompliano
You know why? You know why you can't catch me? Because it's like people want to follow the truth, they don't want to follow nonsense. You're blabbing. About all this nonsense. Nobody wants to listen to any of that. They want to hear the hard hitting things. Did you see. Have you seen my recent tweets? We didn't even get a chance to talk about your.
Peter Schiff
They're not your brother anymore. They're posts. I have a little respect for Elon.
Anthony Pompliano
We didn't even get a chance to talk about your brother, Mom, Donnie, who's running New York City now.
Peter Schiff
I mean, my brother.
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, that's your brother.
Peter Schiff
You.
Anthony Pompliano
You. You and him both are socialist fans, I heard. All right, so people on people.
Peter Schiff
People should follow me.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
People who follow you on X should follow me. Okay. Get the contrarian point of view.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay. What is your handle?
Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff.
Anthony Pompliano
Just at Peter Schiff?
Peter Schiff
I think so.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay, don't misspell it. It's not Peter. S H I T. It's Peter Schiff. Right. Okay.
Peter Schiff
Right. S C H I. But you're not on YouTube. I got about 630 000.
Anthony Pompliano
Talk about I'm not on YouTube. Where do you think this is gonna go?
Peter Schiff
I got multiple YouTube channels subscribers. How many did you say you have? 630, 000.
Anthony Pompliano
I got more than you, actually.
Peter Schiff
You do?
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, I think so. How many? How many YouTube subscribers? I think we got 650.
Peter Schiff
Oh my gosh. Yeah. So you're beating me there too.
Anthony Pompliano
Imagine me beating you at a place you thought I wasn't even at. That's like nightmare.
Peter Schiff
All the. All the. All the.
Anthony Pompliano
And that's just one channel.
Peter Schiff
I got.
Anthony Pompliano
I got another 50,000 channel over here. I bet you I could start another channel and beat you even again. Just beat you twice.
Peter Schiff
All right, so got all these bitcoin cult following.
Anthony Pompliano
Go. Intelligent people.
Peter Schiff
No, they are. I will tell you that bitcoiners are some of the more intelligent people. They. They just overthink it. That's the problem. But you know. But no, there are some people. Do you need a friend?
Anthony Pompliano
Is that what you're saying?
Peter Schiff
There are some people that just buy bitcoin. They don't know. They just buy. Because it's going up. Look, yeah, there are people who have done a lot of analysis and who are good and have unfortunately somehow, you know, gone off on this tangent. They got into bitcoin. But. But I'm not saying they're that. That they're not smart. Yeah, they're just, you know, smart people can do foolish things.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
I mean I've done Peter Schiff things myself. Well, because, you know.
Anthony Pompliano
All right. Peter Schiff on Twitter or on X.
Peter Schiff
And then Peter Schiff is my YouTube channel.
Anthony Pompliano
Okay.
Peter Schiff
But you should follow me.
Anthony Pompliano
And then you.
Peter Schiff
If you.
Anthony Pompliano
If they go do that, then you got to go Download and use CFOSilvia.com I will.
Peter Schiff
I will look at CFOSilvia.com and.
Anthony Pompliano
And sign up.
Peter Schiff
Well, I mean, I. I don't know if I can.
Anthony Pompliano
How are you gonna look at it if you don't sign up?
Peter Schiff
You have to sign up to look at it.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, you got to use the product. It's like, you know, if you. If you go to the grocery store and you're like, oh, that looks interesting on the shelf, but you try the food.
Peter Schiff
For my business. I'm not. I'm not for you personally.
Anthony Pompliano
For you personally.
Peter Schiff
Oh, it's a personal thing?
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, it's personal finance.
Peter Schiff
Oh, my personal.
Anthony Pompliano
I think that we may be able to automate away some of your team, and then you can save money.
Peter Schiff
Really?
Anthony Pompliano
That'd be interesting, right?
Peter Schiff
I have a pretty lean ship in Puerto Rico. Yeah. Don't worry.
Anthony Pompliano
Well, we're going to get you in a canoe. You don't need that big ship. You just get in a canoe.
Peter Schiff
All right.
Anthony Pompliano
Thank you for doing this. We'll do it again in the future.
Peter Schiff
All right?
The Pomp Podcast
Host: Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano
Guest: Peter Schiff
Date: July 23, 2026
This lively episode features a spirited debate between Anthony Pompliano (“Pomp”) and Peter Schiff, the contrarian economist, gold advocate, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. The pair tackle core economic and financial topics, emphasizing U.S. inflation, fiscal and monetary policy, AI, Social Security reform, gold versus bitcoin, and how individuals should think about building resilient portfolios. With sharp wit, real-world anecdotes, and several memorable bets, the conversation exemplifies the ongoing clash between traditional finance dogma and the disruptive promise of digital assets.
Schiff’s View on Inflation (01:51–10:51):
Taxes and Spending (08:36–10:53):
AI, Robotics, and Deflation (15:34–22:36):
Do Tariffs Pass to Consumers? (17:36–19:10):
Comparing Gold and Bitcoin Returns (53:45–61:55):
Schiff’s Bitcoin Skepticism (60:18–61:42):
Pomp’s Proposal (66:43–67:14):
Land, Agriculture, and Commodity Investing (67:05–74:07):
Mining Stocks & Gold Bull Market (72:23–74:18):
Crypto’s Looming Risks (76:51–78:30):
Financial Technology & AI Tools (64:24–65:54):
On Policy Responsibility:
“It takes two to tango... the Fed is the principal bad actor, but it's acting in concert with Congress.” — Peter Schiff (07:40)
On Gold vs. Bitcoin:
“I don't own Bitcoin... people who have bitcoin are going to be in a lot of trouble too. They're going to probably need some kind of bailout.” — Peter Schiff (51:13)
On Social Security:
“The minute they got money, the government took it and just deposited its own IOU.” — Peter Schiff (45:09)
On Tariffs:
“Americans paid all the tariffs. We could debate that, but then you'd lose if you tried to debate that.” — Peter Schiff (16:31)
On Portfolio Strategy:
“Land is scarce... if AI makes labor obsolete, it's not going to make land obsolete.” — Peter Schiff (67:05)
The episode closes with friendly yet competitive banter about who has more social followers, and a final invitation for listeners to follow both on social media or check out their respective platforms. The debate remains unresolved, but listeners come away with a rich and direct comparison of deep gold-bug skepticism and bullish bitcoin conviction—with practical macroeconomic insights and a dash of humor.