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- [00:01]
Podcast Host
This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it, ready to make anything online make sense. There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required compatibility and
- [00:23]
Jordy Visser
availability various 18/7 29 when we have the FOMC, are they going to raise rates? There's a possibility, a good possibility. It's like 35 to 40% that they will. If they don't, then I think Bitcoin will be above 70,000 when that time comes because I think people are going to start factoring in the fact what's going on guys?
- [00:45]
Interviewer
Today we have a great conversation with Jordy Visser. We talk about what's going on with the AI mid cycle slowdown, why he thinks that's over. Why is he getting excited about bitcoin? He thinks that the bottom is forming. On top of that, we talk about robotics, commodities and what public stocks Jordy's going getting interested in. This conversation is full with lots of nuance and we cover some of the big stories, things like Apple and what's going on with Meta or XAI and Grok. So you're going to enjoy it. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy. This week Grok and Facebook both made very big announcements about their ambitious plans when it comes to AI. It looks like we have a price war on our hands as both of them start talking about affordability for what they can actually produce. What's your take as to these two kind of trying to make a comeback and take over OpenAI and Anthropic,
- [01:30]
Jordy Visser
so, ooh, speechless now. I was trying to think of the best way to kind of present this. I really am believing that we have to start separating everything going on in AI and the models into two categories. I don't think anyone anymore can catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI and what their plans are now. Let me just kind of put that into context. I've spent a lot more time on consumer agents. I've spent a lot more time on what these models are trying to do and what everyone's kind of going for. They're all trying to get some kind of revenue, all of them. So when Meta talks about the cloud ambitions, they need some revenue coming in the door now. And if your business is going to be consumer agents, advertising, stuff like that. And personal AI assistance, which is where I am now putting officially Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon. Now again not completely, but they all have that part of the puzzle. Amazon, Google and Microsoft obviously not only have the personal assistant, the copilot side, they also have the cloud business. Obviously we have cloud business now where we're renting out compute for SpaceX. So I think rather than get into the model side which again these models are just gonna be commoditized, it's what you're aiming to get your revenues from. And clearly OpenAI and Anthropic are in a war with the enterprise side and then everyone else to me is kind of making sure that they're also spending in other areas where they need this. And obviously SpaceX, Tesla, eventually they've got different ambitions for how they're gonna use AI. So I think I'm not really looking at the price wars as anything more that number one, the media is just kind of getting into this, the token index is going down, it means we're going to have problems. I think everyone's just re examining where their ROIC is going to come from and they're strategically moving their decision making towards that process.
- [03:37]
Interviewer
I love when we maybe don't disagree but have slightly different takes on this in building. Sylvia, I think you and I have talked in the last couple of weeks about the mandate from heaven. 18 months ago everyone use AI. Now all of a sudden people start looking at the token prices or the compute cost on a monthly basis was sky high, they all start cutting that. But a lot of what people have been doing, both, you know, we've been doing at Sylvia, but also in other companies I've talked with, they essentially were changing the architecture of how they use the models. So it wasn't they were changing the model, it was just, hey, we don't want to ping the model for if you ask what the date is or you know, that type of stuff. Right now I think that we've kind of graduated past that. What we're actively looking at and I think a lot of other people are looking at is how do you actually start to route queries to different models based on the complexity or the compute need of that query. And so this feels like an area where you're going to see a significant drop off in the compute cost of these companies in terms of what they're spending. And the reason why that becomes interesting is then it opens up this whole open source thing. And so to me the Facebook and XAI announcements around Cost is basically them trying to position themselves to say, hey, maybe you don't need to go to Chinese open source or look for American open source. What if you could use one of these closed source models but do it at a, a much cheaper rate. It's almost like they're acknowledging the fact that all of these companies are now becoming very cost conscious on this. I don't know if it'll work. Like, I don't know if they'll actually drive more adoption. But it seems odd that two different companies who probably are not sharing their plans with each other in the same week come out and they're leading with, hey, this is a cost effective way to get super intelligence, you know, via the model. Right?
- [05:19]
Jordy Visser
Yeah. So I, I, I don't agree with you, so we'll keep going. The part I agree with is the fact that, and I put together a visual because a bunch of people reached out and asked me the question from a variety of angles on this point. And then I had some people that I've known a long time in the tech side that are all bearish on this, going, oh, everyone's gonna move to a cheaper model. And I'm like, that's, we gotta start to understand where we are. So I'm gonna give it to you in a different way. You've probably not heard it this way, and you're looking at it from the angle of Sylvia, which I get. In my opinion, having managed hundreds of people over the years, you bring in a resume and you don't need to hire the most expensive people throughout your firm for every job. Jobs are now finally getting delegated to the models that make sense. Meaning 100, 100 IQ might be enough for something if it does, if you don't need it quickly. So it's getting back to the way I look at aggregate payrolls, which is hours worked hours. Then you've got hourly earnings and how many people you're employing. That is the aggregate payroll. And I think every workforce is figuring out these models at the very high end. They're super high iq, they're very cheap. And Dylan Patel gave an interview that I listened to today on Wisdom Tree. It's a great podcast. I highly recommend. He talked about his spend. So this is Dylan Patel from Semianalysis, very sophisticated. His spend went from $100,000 all in for his firm as of December last year. It's now 11 million ars, as he said, annualized revenue spend. Now what he talked about as the importance of that is he's not changing it, he's not looking to get it done. He said in some cases, because the productivity is expanding, he's able to generate more revenues. I think every business is going to be different. I think for the enterprises that had no usage for them whatsoever, they're figuring out where they should be making the spend and in some case, in every case they will be having workflows that are using cheaper models, open source, possibly then you're going to have more expensive, high IQ making decisions where they're very effective and very cost effective because they do the speed in 1/10 or 1/100 the time that those workflows do. So it just depends on where it is. The end result is going to be a mixture of all these different mod. Completely agree, we were always going to end up there. But I think one of the things that's been challenging is that since Opus 4.5, the model intelligence for coding agents just keeps getting better and better. But the deployment from enterprises just started and so they spent the first six months actually learning how much the spend would be. Now they're going to start going through a slight readjustment. Palantir is obviously out there promoting the fact that you don't, you know, they're going another angle. Oh, you don't want to have this, you don't want to be exposed. They're giving all the negatives to having your own models. I think we're in the, the price discovery phase for everything. The models are going to keep getting more efficient, they're going to keep getting cheaper, they're going to keep getting smarter. I think there's going to be a mixture of both, but I don't think this is going to affect the overall spend. I think adoption and usage is going up significantly, dramatically each day.
- [08:38]
Interviewer
Yeah, and, and maybe as a, a nuance to it, I actually think that the number of tokens consumed will continue to grow. So I agree with that. But I think that what companies are trying to figure out, at least what we're trying to figure out, you consume more tokens but spend less money. And I think what we are starting to see is that, you know, if you go hit 4.7 or 4.8 or you know, whatever, and someone's asking what is the date? Not only is there a cost associated with it, which obviously is a, like a pain point for the company, but there's a big latency and so it's actually like a bad experience for the user versus if you can, you know, kind of hit a lightning fast open source model, make sure it's Accurate, etc, then it becomes somewhat interesting. But some companies don't care, right? They don't care about the cost. Maybe Dylan Patel is just like, Look, I'll spend $50 million because every dollar that I spend, I'm getting back $10 in revenue. Then, you know, it kind of doesn't matter.
- [09:33]
Jordy Visser
Right? Yeah. And, and that's the point is the way this weeds out the bad companies. And I think his exact quote was, if you're not spending more money every year, you're going out of business. Like if you're trying to, to optimize based on I don't want to spend X amount of dollars and you're cutting back on your AI spend, you it means you're going out of business. And I happen to agree with that. Meaning your budget for AI should be expanding every single year, no questions asked. It should absolutely be going up. And that is the only way you're going to survive as a business. That makes companies that are startups have a huge advantage. And that's why semianalysis is very different than say the SEM. You know, they cover data centers, they cover semiconductors, they cover the entire AI buildout. If you're Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, you've got a huge payroll, you have a huge thing, you're going to have a different approach than a company that's just starting was only spending $100,000 a year on AI in December.
- [10:29]
Interviewer
Yeah, that makes sense. What about Apple? Apple obviously made the Siri announcement, kind of an AI Siri integration. And then they also announced that they're going to have to increase prices because of memory. What do you think is happening with that business?
- [10:43]
Jordy Visser
I actually so last week because I've been spending so much time on Meta and because I've. So I listened to more podcasts with Meta involved. I listened to one with Alex Cantrowitz this week. He had on the CTO from Meta and I'll be covering that in the YouTube. Whenever there's a story that's going around that I'm trying to figure out what's behind it, they're getting into cloud. They're saying the agentic world is not where they thought it would be. Well, then I gotta go look up. So I start doing a ton of research on consumer agents and this is the way I want to break it down for people as I get into the Apple discussion. So far all we've done is coding agents and I want people to understand that that is basically the language of AI. So we're using more coding agents and that Agentic side where the workflows are getting longer, they're getting more complex, they need some kind of memory. We've, we've seen token usage go up exponentially. Consumer agents are going to make it have another move higher. And in listening to meta multip times and people talk about it, the complexity with consumer agents and what has to go on the commerce side, the hey, book me a trip to Italy, here's what I care about. That's far more complicated than build me this spreadsheet, build me this model. You have to do a lot more things, you have to visit a lot more sites, it takes a lot more compute. So the step function of compute is going to go exponentially when these guys can solve this. The reason the Apple thing is interesting is the same thing with meta because Google, Amazon, Amazon has Alexa, Google has personal intelligence. Apple which is trying to get Siri to work and then Meta which is trying to monetize, Facebook, Instagram, everything they have in some way with advertisements, but also with AI combined in as well as all these places having some kind of hardware again, Alexa, the phone, you go through it, everyone has hardware out of this group. So the question is, think about how difficult it is that wow, OPE is 4.84 point, we've got Fable 5, but yet Siri still doesn't work, Alexa still doesn't work. How's that possible? Well, the complexity of what they're trying to solve is impossible. I was in my Tesla using Grok again this week and Grok in a Tesla is phenomenal. The latency is very good. Why can't they do this with Siri? Well, the car is on all the time, I'm just driving in it. If you had your phone open all the time, you could converse with ChatGPT, it would work. So I think the most interesting thing with Apple is the take that I normally have. It sold off and made all time highs. When they announced Siri personal intelligence and they showed what it was able to do, you had some people saying it was horrible. You had a lot of people saying it was shockingly good. Then they had the memory price side. Okay, memory prices are going higher, we're going to have to raise prices. The stock got hit both of those days. On the Siri day, it made all time highs and sold off. And then it sold off on the memory side, leaving it down 10, more than 10% off the highs. And then with no news, it went right back up to the highs. This is not a cheap stock. This tells me this is a bullish reaction to bad news and I like looking into things. I think the market and particularly the very smart people are starting to look ahead to the next six months. So this is the first warning I'm going to give to people. The infrastructure trade was a great six month trade. I still think you're going to make a lot of money being long the receivers or the people getting the money on the infrastructure build out, but it's not going to be as easy. So I'm calling the, the AI mid cycle slowdown is over when it comes to terms of, I think now everyone's a little bit too negative on the AI build outside and they're worried about this compute thing. Where I think this is all shifting to is two themes. One is when consumer agents come, you have to reprice Apple, you have to reprice Meta, you have to reprice these stocks because the ROIC is going to come through. And I think people are getting more bullish on these companies with the reality that that's coming. The second angle is this is where you start getting into the crypto side because of the agent of commerce. They're linked together. And so I'm looking towards, you know, a year from now, the major story being how did we miss Apple. I'm not convinced in media yet because it doesn't have the same technical picture. But I am going to watch the hyperscalers much more closely because I getting into a side where the surprise could be that we're moving into consumer agents and away from the coding agents.
- [15:17]
Interviewer
What do you do with Grok in your Tesla?
- [15:20]
Jordy Visser
This was really more conversational. So I wanted, in fact the irony is I wanted to have a conversation about exactly what I just talked about. So the way that I use it when I'm driving, especially in Maine for say an hour, and I've just listened to a podcast, I will pause the podcast, I will go to Grok and I will now have a conversation to expand that conversation. And it's much better in the car than it is walking around with ChatGPT. And the reason is because it's on all the time and the signal is much better inside the car. So GROK is more human. Like for me having the conversation. And so again, this thing of having a conversation with a really smart person, it's literally, hey, I want to talk about Apple and Meta and consumer agents. And I'll just give you one, you know, one factoid that came out of that. Goldman Sachs had a report out this year saying consumer agents will consume about 30 times, 30 times what coding agents will consume from a compute basis. This is why there is no solution to compute. If you think there is excess capacity of compute, you are absolutely wrong.
- [16:27]
Sponsor Voiceover
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- [16:28]
Jordy Visser
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- [16:29]
Sponsor Voiceover
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- [17:55]
Interviewer
Now, when we look at the compute issue, obviously that's one of the big things. People saw meta's announcement, they start getting worried about that. We continue to see volatility in a lot of these names. Bloom energy. Now there's a bunch of these short reports that are starting to come out. It almost feels like the people who are pessimistic, they are just waiting to pick their shot and they think that all this stuff is overvalued. Can short sellers make money in a market like this? Like how do you think about the other side? Right, you're bullish on this. I'm bullish on this. Many people are buying these names. What about the other side? Like do they have any credible critiques that you think people should pay attention to?
- [18:36]
Jordy Visser
Well, of course. And let's go back to me selling out of Micron but still believing the memory trade is going to continue. In fact, one of the things just to give people a preview. Part of the reason I sold out of Micron was because the speculation everywhere was starting to become evident. And again it was leverage. So when I see leverage forming and obvious in Korea and I see leverage in macro strip strategies, and I see leverage in fundamental long short strategies, where six months ago they were arguing with me on memory already being expensive and now they're bragging about the fact that this has five years to go, just start to reduce the risk. And I think there's better places to put my money. Now I have to get my brain around the fact that to buy Micron back, I'm going to have to buy it above where I sold it. There's absolutely no question. Now I don't have a problem with that because I've been a trader my life, but I do think that there are ways. Micron went up to 1300. So if you sold it at 1250 and you bought it back at 900, you can trade bubbles, parabolas and all these things that I've talked about. You will have 30 to 40% corrections. And in a lot of these names we've had some of the largest corrections in the history of their stocks. And that's serious. Samsung over a 10 day period was down 20%. And that's despite making enough money to be more than they've made in their 40 year history. That's what's expected for this year. So you can have price falls, you can short bloom energy, think people are making a mistake if they're thinking about this longer term. My general rule is as a macro person, I try to find which way the river is flowing. And I'm either in that side of the river going up or I'm just not in the trade. And that's the way I thought about Micron. I still think you'll see 4,000, 5,000 in micron before this is done. I think it'll be harder to ride it from a thousand to five thousand than it was to go from 100 to 500. And that's my general Take is I'm going to trade it more often. I'll get out, I'll get in and I'll look, look for points. But I do think for people who want to short them, they just have to have a shorter time horizon.
- [20:52]
Interviewer
You mentioned Samsung, Talk a little bit about them. They reported these like blowout earnings, but they sold off. What, what's going on there?
- [20:59]
Jordy Visser
Yeah, like I said, I mean the numbers are astonishing. And for people who, who just haven't read the story, they're, they're expected to make $217 billion this year. I mean with a B, with a B. That's how much they're expected to make, not the revenues, how much earnings are supposed to be this year. Over the last 40 years they haven't made a combined $217 billion. So you have to put that in the context and realize that number one, when people say this is a bubble, it's not a bubble. Like the earnings are massive. Number two, the amount of chips are selling and how far into the future they're going to be selling this stuff. Stuff. It's just not easy to build memory capacity. So Samsung along with sk, Hynix and Micron have benefited significantly and they're going to continue to benefit significantly. But like I said, if you go back over the last 25 years, the only time they had a Correction Greater than 20% over a 10 day period I believe was when the world shut down for a virus that was going to kill everyone. And it was very similar to one that happened just after Lehman Brothers. Those are the only two times in 25 years and yet it's still near the all time highs even though it's off 20% and it's still a parabola. Here's the thing, I would say I saw a lot of people be very negative because one of the things that we like to do is hey, they sold off on good news. The problem is they were already down 15% off the highs when that happened. So I don't care about it nearly as much. What I look for in those types of sell the news things is when the stock is at all time highs, it opens higher and then it sells off and it catches everyone and then that usually leads to a two month or so correction. These things have been correcting now for about four to six weeks and I say four to six weeks. Even though they made new all time highs. You'd started to see the weakness in late May. And that's when I really started to pound the table on. Okay, I really Think the AI mid cycle slowdown is there and all we've done is wipe out the leverage at this point across three buckets, systematic quant strategies have been forced to take down their leverage. We've also seen Korean investors force take down. We've seen the ETFs the two time ETF in Hong Kong go down 62%. Like we've seen enough in my opinion that we have a more balanced market. And if you looked at what SK Hynix did with their ADR issuance and how oversubscribed it was on the IPO coming to the market. But then when you read that most of the buyers or a lot of the buyers were long only people, this is the way long only managers are showing their hand which is they missed this party on the way up. It moved too fast. For how fast they deploy money, they're going to be underneath to buy things. So I'm very comfortable that we've done enough damage. Maybe we make a little bit more new lows during earnings season, particularly on some stocks, but the volatility is way too high on the momentum side. It's going to come down and it's going to come down through lower correlation amongst the names.
- [24:01]
Interviewer
I know as the AI trade is maybe gearing up to to get out of this mid cycle slowdown, you've become more bullish on Bitco. What's going on there?
- [24:12]
Jordy Visser
Well, it's really, I mean we talked about it but I'll just reemphasize a couple things and then I'll get into a bigger topic that I'm starting to say to managers and explain why I even am starting a YouTube specifically on crypto targeted for September. As people get to know me, I still, I'll always be a trader. I'll always look for the best timing on things. But when you're running a business you want to start things at a time when people are going to start to be looking for them. And I think this is a really important story. So the first thing is I always look for technical signs and I finally got my first RSI divergence since the peak at the end of last year. And that divergence was using basically a four hour rsi. And I look for points where the price makes new low which happened when we broke through 60,000 recently. But the RSI is higher than it was at the prior low. Plain and simple. Now that was the first time that we got one. So as a trader I go well now I can buy something when we get back above 60 and I'll just stop myself back out below the lows. That's the way a trader trades and that's the way that I've always thought. It's the way I was brought up. And I'm an Elliott Wave guy. And I still believe we're entering a very, very big thing. My belief is that over the course of the next year, we are near the bottom end of the range of bitcoin. And see how I said that? Near. Could we go to 50? Yeah. Could we go to 45? Yeah. Do I think we'll be over 100 a year from now? Yeah. So what do I care whether I buy something at 60 or whatever? Yes, my, my percentage gain will be better, but if we're above 100, I don't care. So that's the first thing. The second thing is I've highlighted that we probably all underestimated. I know I did. The impact that the AI capital suck would have from the rest of everything. It's not just bit people, it's the hyperscalers as well. Basically, my benchmark arbitrage of money rotating into the space that's going the fastest Micron went up 20 times a 20 bagger. 20 bagger. You don't get that in big companies. And this is a big company. So for that to happen, you didn't need to buy bitcoin, you didn't need to buy crypto, you didn't need to buy any of this stuff. Every single person in Silicon Valley talked about how startups, if you had AI attached to it, nobody wanted crypto. At the end of the day, people want to invest in things that are working. And so once it started to move lower, which coincided in October with the release of Opus 4.5, but it also coincided with another strong secular trend that has still been in place until last week, which was rate cuts. We had 150 basis points of rate cuts still in the market as of October or late September of last year. That peak there, some of it came out because of the actual cut, but then a lot of it came out because we started to build in hikes and we have about. We have a full cut plus percent of. Sorry, hike plus a probability of another one before the end of the year. So here's what I'm telling you is going to happen in my mind, that's all going to change, or at least the rate of change is going to be there and I'm ready to change. Guys, I do not think they want to hike. I did a piece on the Fed this week and made sure that everyone was highlighted that, hey, the Fed Warsh has spoken. He believes AI is going to be a productivity boom and that there might be a point at the beginning where it's a little inflationary before we get to deflationary, but the last thing he wants to do is go on some tight hiking cycle because of inflation. We're going to get a negative CPI print. The question is July 29, when we have the FOMC, are they going to raise rates? There's a possibility, a good possibility. It's like 35 to 40% that they will. If they don't, then I think Bitcoin will be above 70,000 when that time comes because I think people are going to start factoring in the fact that maybe they're not going at all this year before the midterms. Does he really want to hike before the midterms when he was brought in by Trump? So I think that may be on hold for a while. And it's not that it's a big deal because it means they're not cutting rates, but since hikes are expected, it is a positive relative to expectations. Those are the ways that I'm kind of looking at it. But I want to leave one more thing for people and this gets into the bigger picture. Scott Bessen gave a speech at the New York Economic Club and I posted something on X on Friday that Matt Hogan had put out. I do think people should read the speech. I think they should also read the op ed from Mohamed El Erian on it. This is the fact, guys, and we talk about it here. The administration is very focused on changing the way the US does business around the globe. And part of that change is making sure that they don't lose the control of the financial system or be the leader of the financial guardrails. He specifically said that digital assets, tokenization, stablecoins are all part of the administration's focus on this new economic order. You have to understand what that means. They are focused on crypto being part of the guardrails and this coincides with AI. So the reason I named it AI Macro Nexus, the reason I do my YouTube and it's about 90% a combination of the impact AI is having on the macro world we exist in today and 10% on crypto and what that means we're now at the point where the reason I'm doing YouTube where it's going to be about 70% starting with crypto and then showing the difference of the macro world and AI connected to it is because we are about to enter the AI agentic commerce side, which means the velocity of money is going to increase. The dormant assets that remain in the form of housing, real estate around the globe are going to be liquefied and turned into active cash over the next five years through tokenization. These are all major positives and that's the reason why I think you're at the beginning of a multi year bull market in bitcoin. And whether it starts in October, whether it starts in December or whether it starts right now, I think we're at the bottom end of the range for the next year.
- [30:21]
Interviewer
I recently saw a statistic that showed stablecoins are spiking on the weekends in terms of volume, which makes sense. The banks are closed, right? So people want to access it. We also saw the open stablecoin, a kind of consortium that got announced. I think they have like MasterCard and Visa and Stripe, you know, a bunch of people all participating in this. And it just feels like some of this is, hey, how do I get into the stablecoin game? But a lot of it is the agents need money and what money are they going to use, how are they going to use this, whatever. Do you see anything on that front or are you hearing anything from fund managers that suggest they're now starting to move some of their funds into whether it's stablecoins or bitcoin or is this more. So you think we're pretty early in this reversal and you're starting to buy now because you think that's what people are going to be doing three months from now.
- [31:15]
Jordy Visser
So price leads narrative. The first thing that always happens in a bottom is you start getting short covering because people are frustrated that this has gone on. I think bitcoin has been a funding side of the AI trade. I think it started when software got bludgeoned and all of the software names got hit hard and bitcoin was part of it. I would say anything built on code, you couldn't get away from the correlation. So if you wanted to hedge your semiconductors, which now had high beta, you needed to find high beta shorts. And high beta shorts ended up being salesforce.com, adobe, Adobe, Workday and bitcoin. And I think all of those things became part of the momentum trade. So it's not a coincidence that as momentum has gone down sharply that bitcoin has a bid. So for people who want to be bearish, like, well, this is just short covering. All rallies that last for a year, start with short covering. Every single one because it means the narrative that was existing before the AI infrastructure trade is no longer as strong as it's going to be. And it's going to take a while for that re leveraging to happen. And as we go through earnings, like I said, I think you're going to have disappointments before every single name was working. I don't think that's going to be the case anymore in the AI trade. I also don't think you can get five baggers and six baggers over the course of the next year. I think a lot of these things are priced well. Dylan Patel talked about it today and he said you're going to see some surprises on the CPU side and the surprise is going to be that we've kind of gone a little too far.
- [32:39]
Interviewer
Far.
- [32:39]
Jordy Visser
On the optic side, we've gone a little too far. He talked about this. I think what all that means is that that place is priced in a way where if you can get 40% over the next year, that's great. I think bitcoin can do more than 40% based on the fact that just to get back to all time highs, you're talking about a double. And getting back to all time highs to me will be left with the narrative that I just talked about. So the first stage is short covering. The second stage is for the momentum to shift once we get above the 200 day moving average, which I've said that is the critical line. We are still way below it right now. We still, I think it's around 76, 77,000. So we still have quite a ways. We have 20% before we get up there. So this will be a short covering rally. We'll see how it goes. And like I talked about and for people who, who heard this before and still reach out to me, are we still watching Doge? Yes, I'm still watching Doge for the energy side of crypto. But I do think there will be surprising news on what you said over the course of the year where when people start to realize that the 40 name index that I've created, which goes through eight separate verticals or sectors, is a direct overlay with bitcoin, that bitcoin just represents the ecosystem and I think the ecosystem is going to benefit from the stable from the agentic side and that's going to flow to bitcoin as well.
- [34:00]
Interviewer
Michael Saylor the first bitcoin sale was like a dip in the, you know, dip your toe in the water. The second one was like a cannonball in the deep end. The first Time it sold off. The second time he sold off a little bit, but it almost seemed like the market was like, yeah, whatever, and they really didn't care. So, you know, maybe he should get some kudos for the way that he did this and its minimal impact on the market with the big sale. But do you take or read into that sale or the response from the market?
- [34:29]
Jordy Visser
A year from now this stuff is going to be noise. I'm actually a little embarrassed to be associated with something where we have to even talk about this ridiculous thing, the Michael Saylor thing. To me, he's even become like people are blaming him for why bitcoin's not going higher. Bitcoin, as we talked about, in every asset you have corrections. I don't get into four year cycles, I don't get into any of this stuff. But the reality is what he has done and what he has been able to do. I'm more focused on the quantum side of crypto and the solutions that are coming out and some of the themes about should we just basically deal with these tokens that are dormant and should we? The man owns an enormous amount of supply of an asset that I believe the world is going to acknowledge is a real asset for collateral. And as we get into tokenization and we start getting into the dormant asset side, I think people will start to understand the value of collateral again. They'll start to understand what he has always talked about. So I never bought into this thing. I do agree that the most important thing is that it's actually higher than when he made his biggest sale. That would be a sign that if you would have said to people, hey, what would happen if a week after he makes his biggest sale, the unthinkable that he said he would never do publicly, and even though this is for a different reason, so it doesn't count, but he did do it, what would happen? Everyone would have said the thing would be down big. So the fact that it's higher I think is a Apple type news item where it happened. And once you don't sell off after something like that, it actually is more of a positive than a negative. So I don't think this will ever be talked about again in a big way.
- [36:13]
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- [38:29]
Interviewer
When you look at the market right now, we've talked a lot about AI, We've talked a lot about crypto. Are there, are there any areas that you're really excited about or that you're starting to deploy capital into that don't fall into AI and crypto? Or do you think those are like the two games in town?
- [38:44]
Jordy Visser
So I am looking into the insurance side. I'm looking into the regional bank side. I'VE talked a lot about Eli Lilly which is going to remain Eli Lilly. I don't think even if it were to go up, even if it were a three bagger from here, I wouldn't get out of it. I have so much belief in what is happening on the health side and the compounding side of curing diseases and I want to be associated with the group that's already done sovereign AI and I want to make sure people hear that. All this talk you're hearing from people, well you should own your own models, you should go through this. Remember what Anthony and I talked about with Lillypod and the fact that on their campus they have a thousand Blackwells, they have their own sovereign AI. They are using that with biotech companies. So I'm going to keep saying that healthcare is a big thing. On my video last week I did go through some of the insurance names which are now starting to see. I think we're actually going into how important agents are for companies that were already using AI and that means a lot of the banks are going to do well. And you've seen a lot of the banks make new all time highs. The regional banks have made new all time highs. Regional banks fit into a very interesting thing which is it's very hard to buy a bank and take them private it because of all the regulations which means takeovers with inside the regional banks for mid sized banks is probably going to happen because as people put AI into their model they can go buy companies and then infuse them with AI and get rid of headcount. So it becomes very accretive immediately. So I think you're going to see a lot of consolidation with inside the financials and I think the healthcare side and the insurance side has already been spending money on this and already advanced advanced on it. They're going to start seeing the benefits over the next year.
- [40:33]
Interviewer
What about outside of the public markets? Are there anything in terms of commodities or anything else that you're starting to to get excited about?
- [40:40]
Jordy Visser
Well, if I'm right about Bitcoin then silver is going to do well and gold is going to do well. It's not going to be a resurgence of the, of the debasement trade, but it is going to be a, hey, these things were impacted more than we thought from AI sucking the dollars out of everything. And then secondly the reality that we have hikes built in so the run it hot thing turned into hey, we don't have any need for this. I wrote about this, I talked about it. We still have A budget deficit that's massive. And the reason that's important is I don't think the Fed can raise rates. So one other angle is they raise rates in July. This could be a Michael Saylor type moment as well, because if they raise rates, in my opinion, without any question, it'll be a one and done and it'll be a Fed credibility hike. The long end is going to come down, meaning yields are going to come down. And that would be the reason that they'd be okay doing it. Every single macro person I talk to when we've had good conversations on this believes this. So do I. That if they were to tighten in a surprising manner in July as a credibility hike, the long end would come down. I think at that point people would treat it as a one and done. And for the end of the year we have another 50% of a hike built in. And so it could actually act as a positive. If it's a dovish hike, where he says we did this for the credibility side, we are committed to this. But we think now we're in a position where we can sit back and wait. If that were going to happen, which I think is going to happen in terms of if they did it, they're going to do that way, I think that would be positive as well. So I actually think gold, silver and Bitcoin, that three grouping the debasement trade will start to see a bottoming and arise as well.
- [42:31]
Interviewer
Now sometimes people will listen to this and they should take away signal from the things we talk about. There's also times where they should take away signal for the things we don't talk about. And the Iran war has been on again, off again, on again, off again, off. For real? No, not anymore. And this past week we got, I think Whipl, maybe it was on and off twice. I don't, and this sounds crazy, but I don't think that the investment community really cares anymore about the Iran war's impact on their investments. Obviously there may be difference in terms of the people who live in Iran or the, the military components, the geopolitics, all that, but like from an investor standpoint, I have not heard someone talk about Iran impacting anything in their portfolio in the last two weeks. Maybe you have, but what's your take there?
- [43:25]
Jordy Visser
No, no one's really talked about it. And I don't think this is people just not being aware of it or not being, I don't know, scared of the fact that it started. And I think the reality is oil doesn't budge and even though we had a rally, we jumped if oil, and this is the beauty of markets, we heard the doom and gloomers say it should go to 200. Let's haircut that and say it should have gone to 150. The problem is it's still despite everything. And it's not just the front part of the curve, it's the back end. There are no issues. The thing that I take from this is plain and simple, we were supposed to have gas prices surging. Now again, crack spreads are wide. And the reason crack spreads are wide and so people understand what crack spreads are, it's the differential between the gas price and the oil price, the conversion from oil into gas that is still high. So the ability of having gasoline is the issue that is still there. But oil as a whole is not going higher. And I think everyone would treat it as a short term thing. They don't think this is going to not end, meaning this is a flare up. I think everyone had built into their expectations this. So I'll just say to everyone here, unless we see surprising movements in oil where it actually goes higher, it still acts in the market at something that has a positive negative, and I hate to say this, it acts like there's a glut. It literally acts like when this ends, the price is going to head back to 50. So I'm not saying that is going to happen. I'm just saying the way the market looks and the way it acts, it just doesn't act like something that's going to go significantly higher. So I think we're stuck between 65 and 85, 80. And unless we get above 80 and the Iran situation is worsening where there's no ships going through Hormuz, I just don't think it matters for the markets.
- [45:27]
Interviewer
The last thing I want to talk about for a couple minutes is I don't know if you saw the One X robotic hand demo.
- [45:33]
Podcast Host
No.
- [45:35]
Interviewer
So maybe the best way I can describe this is the hand has been the hardest part of robotics for a very long time, 30, 40 years, people have been working on this. And most people, what they essentially have done is they have used robotics robotic components to build the hand. But if you think of your hand, it is all operated off of tendons. And so One X essentially has created a synthetic version of a tendon based robotic hand. And in this demo, you know, they can do very kind of ambidextrous, you know, type things or very dexterous type things. But more importantly is it can screw on a light bulb it can pick a cherry without, you know, going and smashing it, or it can do things that I think a lot of people, when they saw this demo, the video got millions of views online are like, whoa, hold on a second here. This is a significant leap forward. My takeaway from seeing this is that everything that you and I are excited about from an AI perspective, I would be shocked if that robotic hand was not somehow either ideated or developed using AI. And so we now are getting the like, you know, second boost to this robotic stuff where people are having this super intelligent software there to help them make these advancements. And it wouldn't shock me at all if we start to see some pretty crazy stuff happen where these robots start to be as human, like as maybe we all feared that they could, you know, eventually get to.
- [47:00]
Jordy Visser
So I'm gonna. And this is what, this is a Finnish company, right, or a Norwegian company?
- [47:07]
Interviewer
I think the. I think that it is made in the United States, but I think the founders might be from there. I can't remember. There's something that is like a Nordic relationship, but I don't think that the company is based. I think it's actually a US company, but maybe the founders are from there.
- [47:22]
Jordy Visser
So I agree with what you said. And so people hear this. I'll start with a statement and then I'm going to work a little backwards towards why this isn't, you know, why ROIC for hyperscalers is not like fracking in oil in this context. So first of all, Anthony's point is really important, which I agree with. We're underestimating that as we get to 100, we're above 140 IQ now, as we get above 160 and as we get above 200, we will be solving problems that we haven't been able to solve. We'll take angles that will allow us to produce these things. And then once the humanoids are available, then we also don't have to do the physical work of testing it out. They can build them for us. So the hand is critical because it's probably the worst thing we have for actually doing intricate work that would be necessary for robots to be making robots or robots to be solving the problem. So if the intelligence is there, we do need the hands to be able to have them go. And this was on a moonshots where Dave Blunden basically admitted that he underestimated how quickly we will get billions of robots, because he saw at Tesla, oh my gosh, the robots will be building the robots at some point. This is the compounding side that goes with opus. 4.5 leads to 4.6, which leads to 4.7 and this whole thing of recursive self improvement. Now the reason I want to bring this back is to oil. I was asked by someone this week that isn't the ROIC risk for the hyperscalers the same as what happened with fracking with the reason being. And a bunch of people on Vex have posted this. They've scared the hell out of some of my subscribers. They've reached out. Here's the reality guys. This is not. Intelligence is not the same as oil. Like, I don't, I don't know how to like make that clear. Oil is oil. Intelligence is everything. Meaning the price of tokens going down, the usage goes higher. Oil usage only grows in a linear fashion related to nominal gdp. It is a physical constraint to get more of it. The problem is for intelligence, the usage is growing exponentially. Oil never grows exponentially demand wise. The only thing that slows down AI is the data centers. It's the gas turbines, it's the physical stuff which cannot be made quickly. So to Anthony's point, and for all of you that are not understanding how the compounding will go towards solving the energy problem and why I always have one eye on crude, because eventually crude will go to zero. It will go to zero because we will solve energy at the fission fusion, name anything you want. We will come up with so many solutions going forward. And so when you listen to Dario and you listen to Sam Altman and you listen to Greg Brock Bachman, they're all saying the same thing, which is the intelligence in getting us to a point where math is being solved. Once math is being solved, then cancer can be solved, then energy can be solved. These are all the science problems, these are all the physics problems of getting us to the point where everything can compound. So in the same way we're talking about the compounding of intelligence and models for coding, which is language, we're about to get into it with consumer agents and we're also about to get it into science. And that's where the robotics thing in the Humanoids gets so important for your investment decision making. And it also feeds in why the financial guardrails are necessary to deal with this type of speed.
- [50:49]
Interviewer
I think that's a great place for us to end it. What, what are you going to cover in your YouTube video this Sunday?
- [50:55]
Jordy Visser
I'm, I'm gonna harp on the fact, number one, that the amid cycle slowdown is over in the Face that I think the sentiment has dropped off enough. The volatility has gone high enough that we are in the bottom end of the consolidation. And you should not, should now be thinking that instead of of is this going lower now, you should be thinking with the AI trade, which I couldn't say when Micron was at 1300, but at 950, will it be higher six months from now? Yes, it will. Once we get through two earnings cycle, it will be higher. So the six month look forward from this, you're at the bottom end of the range, not the top end of the range. Second thing is how important consumer agents are to compute. For all of you scared about compute, thinking there's a chance there's excess computer. If you guys want to hammer me in the future, I will say this again. We have insatiable demand for compute. We do not have enough supply. In the argument I just gave you, compute demand is exponential because intelligence usage goes up dramatically with every model advancement. But the physical supply is what constrains us. So this is a supply demand mismatch. And I'm going to go through why that means you should be invested there. And then thirdly, I will go in more detail on this Besson speech and I will focus again on the importance of Bitcoin because I do believe that a year from now we will be talking about crypto in the same way that we're talking about memory. And I'm going to finalize with what you said. You asked me the question, are fundamental people starting. No, they are not focused on this right now, number one, because they're still focused on AI, both from a loss perspective and what's happened the last four weeks, but also from what should be buying down here. Once they recognize and get through the Fed and they get through all of the changes, they are going to need to focus on crypto and the financial guardrails of the future. And six months from now, as we go into next year, crypto will be the memory for next year.
- [52:45]
Interviewer
Man, that got me hyped up. Jordy, I'll be watching. We'll talk again next week.
- [52:51]
Jordy Visser
All right, man.