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The President's Daily Brief
April 1st, 2026: Trump Reveals Who He’s Talking To In Iran & Russia’s Oil Crisis
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It's Wednesday. The first of April. Is April Fool's Day. Still a thing? I. I don't know. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, there's been a lot of speculation about who exactly the White House has been talking to behind the scenes in Iran. Now we have an answer, or seem to have an answer. President Trump confirms that the US Is in contact with the hardline speaker of the Iranian Parliament. And the question is whether he's a potential partner in finding an acceptable peaceful resolution or just more of the same from the Islamic Republic. Later in the show, Russia was poised to cash in on soaring oil prices. But now Ukrainian drone strikes are hammering its export infrastructure, wiping out what could have been a major financial lifeline for Moscow. Plus, Vladimir Putin tightens his grip at home as Russia moves to cut itself off from the global Internet, raising the risk that millions could soon be isolated from the outside world. Well, how very Stalin of him. Yeah, I guess you can take the boy out of the Soviet Union, but you can't take the Soviet Union out of the boy. In this case, the. The boy being Putin. Okay. And in today's back of the brief, Ukraine steps into the Strait of Hormuz fight, striking new deals with Gulf nations that could put Kyiv at the center of efforts to reopen the world's most critical oil chokepoint. But first, today's pdb. The mystery now appears to be solved. After days of speculation about who the White House has been quietly engaging behind the scenes. President Trump has confirmed it. The US Is in contact with Mohammed Bakr Kaliboff, a powerful figure inside Iran's regime and one we've discussed before here on the pdb. It also comes as the White House begins pushing a new line, a new narrative that the strikes have effectively produced a kind of, quote, regime change in Iran. President Trump has suggested that so many top leaders have been killed that the US Is now dealing with what he calls a different group of people, a new regime, one he describes as more reasonable. Now, that's a pretty bold claim, but whether it reflects reality is another question entirely. For starters, Kolibov isn't some obscure bureaucrat. He's the speaker of Iran's parliament, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, and a longtime political operator who spent decades navigating the upper ranks of the regime. He's run for president multiple times, built relationships across Iran's military and political elite, and cultivated A reputation, particularly with Western observers, as a so called pragmatic hardliner, which might be an oxymoron in the case of Iran. However, he is the kind of man that diplomats often convince themselves that they can do business with just enough of a veneer of polish and sophistication that others imagine them to be reasonable or logical or pragmatic. And there are some signs that the US Administration sees him that way. As we reported last week on the pdb, Kolibov was among a small group of Iranian officials temporarily removed from US And Israeli targeting lists, suggesting that he may be viewed as a potential interlocutor, someone worth keeping in play. President Trump has also pointed to reports that Khalibov authorized the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, albeit with Pakistani connections, interpreting that move as a signal that he may be willing to make concessions. But here's where things get complicated. Kolibov himself is denying any talks are taking place. Now, that's not unusual. Tehran often maintains public deniability, even as back channel discussions unfold. But it does underscore a deeper issue. It's not entirely clear who exactly speaks for Iran right now. Remember, the regime is in flux. Of course. The death of the supreme leader has fractured the power structure, with multiple centers of authority now competing for influence, from the Revolutionary Guard to the clerical establishment to the circle around the new leader, Mujtab Al Khamenei, wherever he may be. So even if Koliba is talking, the question is whether he could actually deliver anything. And then there's his record. No matter what the spin may be, he is not a reformer. Kalibov came up through the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard, the irgc, during the Iran Iraq war, the same generation that still dominates Iran's security apparatus today. As a police chief, he was tied to crackdowns on student protests. As mayor of Tehran, he faced persistent corruption allegations. And politically, he's built a career on ambition, running for president again and again, always falling short, but never quite going away. That's led some analysts to a different conclusion, that what looks like pragmatism may actually be opportunism. Kolibov isn't a moderate. He's a hardliner with a survival instinct. He's someone who adapts, shifts, and positions himself with wherever power is consolidating. Which brings us to the bigger picture. There are growing signs that the administration may be exploring what some have referred to as a shortcut to ending the war, finding a figure inside the regime who can cut a deal, stabilize the situation and allow Washington to declare victory. Now, if that playbook sounds familiar, that's because it is. We saw this same exact scenario play out in Venezuela. But as we've discussed before on the PDB and also with guests on our weekend show, the Situation Report, Iran is not Venezuela. This is not a system that hinges on a single leader, nor is it a system with an established, identifiable and credible opposition. It's a layered, resilient structure with many ideologues built to absorb shocks, even the loss of top figures and continue functioning. Swapping out one face for another doesn't necessarily change how the system behaves. And that raises a real risk that the US Ends up negotiating with someone who can't fully control the outcome. Or worse, someone who doesn't represent change, but rather someone who represents continuity of the Islamic republic or an even more hardline approach. Okay, coming up next, Russia's oil windfall slips away under Ukrainian drone strikes as Putin tightens control at home with a growing push to cut the country off the global Internet. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for dog lovers everywhere. Now, if you're like me, dogs are an important part of the family, right? 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Welcome back to the PDB as the war in Iran continues to exert pressure on global oil markets, Moscow seemed ready to cash in on soaring prices. Now that expected windfall is beginning to slip away, undercut by a wave of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russia's oil export infrastructure. When the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down. You're talking about roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply suddenly thrown into question. As we've been tracking, we've seen prices surge immediately. And for Russia, well, that created a rare opening. After months of selling its crude at a steep discount, Russian oil was suddenly climbing back toward global benchmarks. And at the same time, the Trump administration temporarily eased sanctions on Russian crude, something that under normal circumstances would have been off the table. But in this moment, with global supply constrained, Moscow had more room to export just as prices were peaking. So higher prices, fewer restrictions, tighter supply. This was shaping up to be exactly the kind of economic break the Kremlin had been waiting for before the Iran war, Russia's oil and gas revenues had already taken a major hit, down roughly 50%, forcing the Kremlin to dip into reserves while trying to sustain the war in Ukraine. Inside the Kremlin, budget deficits were widening, inflation was persistent, and internally, even officials were warning that the economy was under real strain. So this surge in oil prices wasn't just a bonus, it was a potential lifeline. But that window didn't stay open for long, because while prices were rising, Ukraine was already moving to target the other side of the equation, the infrastructure Russia actually depends on to move that oil to market. Over the past week, we've seen a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes hitting some of Russia's most critical export hubs on the Black Sea and along the Baltic. Drones continue to evade Russian air defenses and reach deep into the country's energy network, with recent strikes even sparking fires at the Usluga port near Estonia. And the scale of that disruption is significant. Reuters estimates roughly 40% of Russia's crude export capacity has been taken offline. One of the most severe hits to its energy system is in modern history. To put that in perspective, Primorsk and Usluga alone previously handled about 45% of Russia's seaborne crude exports. So now you have a situation where on paper, Russia should benefit from higher prices, but in practice, it's struggling to capitalize on the potential windfall. And there is a second order effect here. When Russian supply is pulled from the market, prices can rise even higher, which in theory still benefits Moscow. And to be clear, Russia does have alternative routes, particularly through eastern terminals serving Asian markets. But the pressure is starting to build because these strikes are forcing the Kremlin to make a trade off, prioritize exports and revenue, or stabilize supply at home. And right now, we're seeing that shift. Kremlin officials are preparing to reintroduce a ban on gasoline exports, not to punish foreign buyers, but but to prevent domestic shortages as inflation continues to bite. So the picture is far more complicated than it first appeared. What initially looked like a clean economic win for Moscow is now being offset by sustained Ukrainian drone strikes, domestic supply pressures, and deeper structural weaknesses in an already weakened economy. Ok, I want to stick with Russia because as our regular listeners know, we've been tracking a steady pattern of Internet throttling and shutdowns, and we're starting to see this heading toward a Kremlin designed system to isolate the country from the global Web. This week, mobile Internet is again being cut in specific regions. Access to certain types of traffic is being restricted, and messaging apps like Telegram, something that millions of Russians rely on every day, are becoming increasingly unreliable, if not outright blocked. The Kremlin is working within the limits of its own system. Russia doesn't have the kind of centralized Internet infrastructure that would allow for a clean nationwide shutdown overnight. So instead they're taking a slower approach, rolling out restrictions piece by piece, testing how far they can push it, and then expanding from there. That's why analysts say what we're seeing is actually more difficult to detect in real time. According to researchers at the Open Observatory of Network Interference, they track Internet censorship globally. This effort is more opaque and less visible than the kind of shutdowns that we've seen in places like Iran. And in some ways, that makes it more effective because it doesn't feel like a single moment of disruption. It feels like a system that's gradually tightening around you. Here's how they're able to do it. The system relies in part on Kremlin mandated filtering equipment that's been deployed across different networks, giving authorities varying levels of control depending on the region. So instead of flipping a switch nationwide, they can dial restrictions up or down, expanding them as the system matures. Since 20 March, monitoring across more than 500 networks shows Telegram facing widespread interference with access problems reported in more than a dozen regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to analysts at Amnitzia vpn, which makes censorship circumvention tools. The way this is being carried out has changed, they say. Blocking is now happening more crudely and on a much larger scale, pushing forward aggressively. The Kremlin already signaled the Telegram could be fully blocked as early as sometime this month, with WhatsApp effectively declared, quote, dead by the head of the country's largest digital service provider. Both platforms are expected to be replaced by a new government controlled messaging service known as Max. Oh, that sounds good. But at the same time, this isn't limited to apps. Mobile Internet has been shut down across large parts of the country for over a year now, with users in some areas only able to access a limited so called white list of approved websites. And we saw just how disruptive that can be. In early March in central Moscow, mobile Internet was completely cut off, leaving people unable to access banking services, navigation apps or even make basic calls. Then once that happens, the ripple effects come quickly. Retailers are reporting increased sales of pagers and paper maps. Yikes. Wait, did I just say yikes? As people look for ways to function in a less connected environment. And you're starting to hear that frustration break through one Russian user speaking in a video aired on Belarusian television stations. Put it this way, quote, I'm switching to pigeon post. I pay for the Internet and I feel I'm being robbed every month, end quote. Ukrainian President Zelensky took a jab at Moscow posting on X. Quote, this is a step backward, a step 100 years back. They might as well switch to horses soon. So where does that leave things? That's a good question. Step by step, the Kremlin is rebuilding the system into something more controllable, centralized and ultimately more isolated from the outside world. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, Ukraine is making a surprising move into the Middle east, cutting defense deals that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. 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in today's back of the Brief, Ukraine is now stepping into a new and somewhat unexpected role in the Middle east, offering weapons and battlefield experience that could help secure one of the world's most critical chokepoints. Of course, I'm referring to the Strait of Hormuz. As we covered on yesterday's pdb, Kyiv is finalizing a series of long term defense agreements with Gulf states. Now we're learning more about what those deals actually entail. And it goes well beyond advisory support, moving into the direct export of weapons systems designed to counter Iranian threats and help, in President Zelensky's words, quote, unblock the Strait of Hormuz, Zeletsky said the agreements will cover the export of Ukrainian weapons systems, including naval drones, electronic warfare capabilities and defense software, along with a sharing of operational experience developed during the war with Russia. Those naval drones are central to the pitch. Ukraine has used them in the Black Sea to target Russian warships and infrastructure, helping to keep a vital shipping corridor open despite sustained attacks. That experience, Zelenskyy said, is now being offered to Gulf partners facing similar drone and missile threats from Iran. Speaking to reporters on March 30, Zelenskyy said the experience of unblocking sea trade routes could this experience help unblock the Strait of Hormuz? They know that they can count on our expertise in this area, and we spoke in detail about sharing our experience of the Black Sea corridor and how it functions. That's significant because at least in peacetime, roughly 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But as we've been tracking following US And Israeli military action, Iran moved to shut that corridor, driving a sharp spike in global energy prices and raising concerns about prolonged disruption. Under the new agreements, some of which are expected to last at least 10 years and be worth billions of dollars, Ukraine would provide both the systems and the know how to help secure the corridor. Ukrainian officials say that if their systems are able to disrupt and deter a much larger Russian naval presence in the Black Sea, they could be adapted to counter Iranian maritime threats in around the Strait of Hormuz, whether that's fast attack craft, drone boats or other asymmetric tactics used by the irgc. Zelenskyy also underscored how unprecedented this move is for Kyiv, noting Ukraine has never had such agreements with this region before. It's also not a one sided arrangement, zelenskyy said. The agreements include energy support from Gulf partners, along with cooperation on air defense and joint defense production, providing Ukraine with critical supplies as the war with Russia continues. It is a notable shift for Ukraine, as the country has long depended solely on foreign military support to sustain its defense against Moscow. Now, for the first time, it is beginning to position itself as a partner and supplier, and in doing so, it may soon play a direct role in securing one of the most critical energy corridors in the world. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 1st April. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and lest I forget, remember to check out our YouTube channel. Just mosey on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. It's everything you could want in a YouTube channel and more. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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