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The President's Daily Brief
April 2nd, 2026: Iran War Enters “COMPLETION PHASE” & Iran Escalates Cyber Campaign
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It's Thursday 2nd April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, after 11,000 strikes in just 30 days, the the war with Iran may be entering its completion phase or not. The situation does seem to change by the hour. But the hardest part of the conflict could still be ahead. I'll have the details later in the show. China and Pakistan roll out a new plan to end the war in Iran, tying a ceasefire directly to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, Iran escalates its cyber campaign, targeting government officials and corporate employees in a form of psychological warf. And in today's back of the brief, Japan signals a shift in its defense doctrine, rolling out long range missiles in a break from decades of restraint. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We're now a little over one month into the war with Iran and by nearly every measurable metric, the scale of this campaign has been staggering. According to the Pentagon, the US alone has struck more than 11,000 targets across Iran in just 30 days. Now that includes military bases, missile launchers, weapons factories, command bunkers and Iran's naval fleet. With over 150 vessels destroyed. Combined with Israeli operations, the US and Israel have established air superiority or dominance over Iran. And that air dominance is allowing for something new. What officials refer to as dynamic strikes. Now these are real time attacks based on live intelligence. They're not pre planned missions or pre planned target packages. In just the past 24 hours, US forces carried out roughly 200 of them. And the tempo of those dynamic strikes is accelerating, not slowing down. At the same time, Israeli officials are signaling that the war may be entering what they're calling the completion phase. According to reporting out of Israel, the IDF believes it has largely achieved the core military objectives that it set at the start of the war. Most of Iran's ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed or degraded. Air defense systems have been dismantled. Key weapons production sites have been hit repeatedly. Senior Leadership figures, including top commanders, have been terminated. In short, the Israelis have hit nearly every target on their initial list that they started with at the beginning of the conflict. So now, instead of focusing primarily on military targets, Israeli leadership has ordered a transition to towards striking Iran's economic infrastructure. We're already seeing early examples, attacks on major steel plants, gas facilities, and other industrial nodes that are critical to keeping the Iranian economy functioning. The goal here is different. It's not about degrading military capability. It's about increasing pressure on the regime, weakening its ability to sustain the war, to govern internally, and to project stability. And the US Is signaling that it's prepared to go even further. President Trump is openly threatening to target Iran's energy backbone, its oil wells and electric grid, and most notably, Kharg island, which handles the vast majority of Iran's oil exports. Of course, this campaign has been characterized by mixed messages out of the White House, often in the same social media post or comment. There are contradictions. In one breath, threatening obliteration, and then the next, suggesting that the war may be nearly over or that they're having productive talks with someone in the Iranian regime. But if the Israelis are saying that they could be in the completion phase, does that mean that the war is actually close to ending? Good question. Because while Iran has clearly taken a severe beating, it is still very much in the fight in a certain asymmetric way. Despite weeks of sustained bombardment, Iranian forces continue to launch missile and drone attacks across the region. The volume is obviously down from the opening days of the war, but it hasn't disappeared. In fact, analysts say Iran has adapted, shifting toward cheaper, lower flying drones that are harder to intercept and can still inflict meaningful damage. And here's the part that matters. Strategically, Iran doesn't need to win this war outright. In fact, it can't win the war outright. Its objective appears to be the same as when this conflict started, basically to survive, to stretch this conflict out long enough to raise the costs for the US And Israel and their allies, to disrupt global energy markets, to create pressure points in the Gulf, and ultimately to force a negotiated outcome on terms that allow the regime to exist and carry on. In other words, while the US And Israel are now moving into what they see as the final phase of the war, Iran is appearing to play a longer game. On one side, you've got Washington and Jerusalem pointing to thousands of destroyed targets, degraded capabilities, and a battlefield that is obviously increasingly tilting in their favor. From that perspective, this does look like a campaign that's nearing its end, one that could soon translate into some type of settlement. On the other side, though, you've got Tehran battered but still standing, betting that it can absorb the hits, keep the pressure on and outlast the coalition, in large part due to the political and economic costs to the US and allies. All right, coming up next, China and Pakistan cook up a ceasefire deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran expands its cyber campaign to target people, not just systems. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question about health, right? Have you ever left the doctor's office feeling like you, you kind of got nothing out of the visit? Well, you know what I'm talking about. 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or wherever you download your podcast. Welcome back to the pdb. I want to turn now to a developing diplomatic push involving China and Pakistan, one that aims to bring the war with Iran to an end, but also raises some important questions about the true motivations behind this effort. On Tuesday, China and Pakistan unveiled a new five point peace initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, the launch of negotiations between the US And Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that Last point, of course, is key, as the strait has effectively been shut down following Iranian action in response to US And Israeli strikes, disrupting global shipping, of course, and sending energy markets sharply higher. While China continues to receive oil due to its very cozy relationship with the Islamic Republic, they've obviously granted safe passage for friendly countries through the strait. The disruption has still raised concerns about supply chain stability and broader impacts on China's manufacturing sector and global markets. Now, under this proposal, China and Pakistan are calling for early and safe passage of commercial vessels and the restoration of normal navigation through the strait as soon as possible. The rest of their plan is also fairly straightforward, at least on paper. It calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities, the start of direct peace talks, the protection of civilian infrastructure, including energy and nuclear facilities, the aforementioned reopening of the strait, and a comprehensive peace framework grounded in the UN Charter. Great, let's put all that on paper. I'm sure it's going to work out. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishak Adar, speaking with Axios, said the plan came together during his visit to Beijing on Tuesday, where he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. The pair issued their joint peace proposal immediately following the meeting, presenting the initiative as a balanced framework. Dara told Axios, it's clearly a balanced five point initiative which all would be happy to endorse. Okay. Now, I should note that Pakistan has been working to position itself as a mediator in this conflict, recently hosting talks with regional players like Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while maintaining lines of communication with both Washington and Tehran. China, meanwhile, appears to be once again attempting to position itself as a responsible global power and a neutral arbiter in international affairs, much like they have tried in relation to Russia's war on Ukraine. In its official readout, Beijing emphasized that, quote, dialogue and diplomacy is the only viable option to resolve conflicts. Well, I hope they remember that in terms of Taiwan, while calling for the safeguarding of Iran's sovereignty. But a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted regarding China's motives. As we know, China is anything but a neutral player in this current conflict. It remains Iran's top trading partner and the largest importer of Iranian oil, giving Beijing both influence in Tehran and a direct economic interest in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. China has also been linked to efforts supporting elements of Iran's ballistic missile program and wider defense capabilities, particularly in the wake of last June's US And Israeli airstrikes. Like I mentioned, China's stance is reminiscent of the way that it's repeatedly attempted to position itself as a mediator in the war in Ukraine, despite maintaining close economic ties with Russia throughout the war, which of course have allowed Putin to maintain his military industrial base. Further complicating matters, there are lingering questions about how this new proposal fits in with ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to engage with elements inside Iran. President Trump declined to comment directly on the China Pakistan initiative when asked Tuesday by Axios, saying only that negotiations with Iran are going well. But it's worth noting that he did not criticize the initiative either. According to one source cited by Axios, China has been helpful in broader diplomatic efforts to reach a deal with Iran, suggesting at least some level of coordination behind the scenes with the U.S. okay, I want to turn now to a different front in this conflict, one that's playing out not on the battlefield but in cyberspace. New reporting suggests Iran is ramping up its cyber operations against the US but not necessarily through large scale infrastructure attacks. Instead, the focus appears to be shifting toward something more personal. According to Axios, Iran linked hackers are increasingly targeting individual officials and employees using a mix of data leaks and intimidation tactics designed to create fear and disruption. Over the past week, a pro Iranian hacking group known as Handala, believed by US Officials to be linked to Iran's intelligence services, released a trove of emails that it claims were taken from FBI Director Kash Patel's personal Gmail account. At the same time, the group also published what it says is data tied to employees at defense contractor Lockheed Martin and claimed it had gone a step further, contacting workers directly and sharing personal details about their families and locations. Now, it's important to note here those claims have not been fully verified. Lockheed Martin says it remains confident in the integrity of its systems, and some of the contact information released by the group appears to be outdated or non functional. The same appears to be true of the emails tied to Patel. According to Axios, much of that material is dated, covering the years between 2010 and 2019 and includes relatively mundane information like travel receipts and personal photos. That said, cyber experts warn, even low value or recycled data can still have a real impact. In the case of Patel, for example, digital sleuths have already used the data leaked by the hackers to map parts of Patel's online life, finding old Google reviews and other accounts linked to his Gmail address. Security experts say these kinds of operations are designed less to deliver immediate damage and more to create uncertainty, forcing agencies and companies to spend time and resources investigating potential breaches breaches while also raising concerns among employees about their personal safety and that marks a subtle but important shift in Iran's cyber strategy. Rather than focusing solely on penetrating networks or disrupting systems, these campaigns are increasingly targeting individuals, blurring the line between cyber operations and psychological pressure. And there are signs that Iran may soon expand its cyber operations. An Iran linked hacking group issued a threat earlier this week against US Infrastructure, including water systems and other critical services. But as mentioned so far, Iran's cyber attacks have been smaller scale and more personal in nature. Instead of relying on sophisticated intrusions, they appear to be aiming for attacks that they think can have the greatest psychological impact. Jake Williams, a former NSA hacker, told Axios the tactics are meant to pressure key supporters of the US And Israel to reconsider their backing, particularly if the war escalates further, williams explained. It's about consuming U.S. resources, saying a month from now I can leak exactly the same emails, claim they're brand new, and consume hundreds of person hours at the FBI. End quote. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Japan strengthens its deterrence strategy, deploying long range missiles amid growing regional threats. We'll have the details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, whether you're in a one or a two income household, if you're a breadwinner, well, you're carrying a lot of responsibility. You know what I'm talking about, right? Mortgage payments, tuition, everyday bills that don't just disappear should something happen to you or your partner. But thinking about that, thinking about the what ifs in life, well, that can be overwhelming. But I'm here to tell you that taking steps to protect your family financially is now a lot easier than it used to be. It's why I recommend Ethos Life Insurance. That's E T H O S Ethos Life Insurance. It's fast, it's easy, it's 100% online. 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in today's Back of the Brief for decades, Japan has defined its military posture not by what it could do, but by what it wouldn't do. And that's now changing. This week, Japan deployed its first long range cruise missiles, known as the type 12, at a military base in Kumamoto Prefecture, located on the southwestern island of Kyushu that's positioned much closer to China than to Tokyo. These are domestically produced weapons with a range of roughly 1,000km, meaning they can reach targets well beyond Japan's borders, including parts of mainland China. For the first time, Japan now has what's known as standoff capability, the ability to strike an adversary from a distance rather than waiting for an attack to reach its own territory. Now let me provide a little context here. Since the end of World War II, Japan has operated under Article 9 of its constitution, a so called peace clause that limited its military to strictly defensive operations. For nearly 80 years that meant relying heavily on the US for extended deterrence while maintaining a force designed primarily to repel attacks, not project power. But that framework has been under growing strain. Tensions with China have intensified in recent years, particularly over Taiwan and disputed territory in the East China Sea. At the same time, questions about the reliability of US Security guarantees have started to creep into Japan's strategic thinking. So Tokyo is adapting, and this missile deployment is just one piece of a broader shift. Japan is also equipping its naval vessels with U S built Tomahawk cruise missiles, deploying new high speed glide weapons, and planning additional missile placements across the country over the next two years. And these aren't just symbolic moves, of course, they're changes in how Japan thinks about defense and deterrence. Japanese officials say these capabilities are designed to stop an invasion before it reaches their shores, allowing them to strike enemy forces from outside the threat zone. In other words, they still, in a way, frame this as defensive. But from Beijing's perspective, as you can imagine, things look very different. China has already condemned the move, accusing Japan of abandoning its pacifist principles and drifting toward what it calls militarism. And inside Japan, there are signs of unease as well, with local protests raising concerns that these deployments could escalate tensions rather than deter them. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday, 2 April. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and of course, if you've been jonesing for an ad free PDB experience, we can make that happen. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, from somewhere on the road, stay informed, Stay safe, Stay cool. Quick break. One useful thing to share. I thought TikTok was just dances. Turns out it's where I learned how to save money, fix stuff, and get real tips. Short videos, real people. Download TikTok now.