April 9th, 2026: Iran Closes The Strait Of Hormuz Again & Israel Unleashes on Hezbollah

Summary

The President’s Daily Brief (PDB) — April 9th, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Theme:
Critical global conflict updates: Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel’s intensified campaign against Hezbollah, mounting Iranian cyberattacks on US infrastructure, and a shifting balance in Ukraine’s drone war.

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Episode Overview

Mike Baker delivers a high-intensity update on unfolding crises at vital global flashpoints. The episode’s central focus is the disconnect between diplomatic headlines and on-the-ground realities—particularly in the Gulf and Levant—while underscoring the evolving threats of cyber warfare and drone technology.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz: Ceasefire in Theory, Crisis in Practice

[01:00–09:30]

• Headline Discrepancy:
  Despite reports of a ceasefire and a supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic remains stalled. Iran retains firm control, allowing only limited, heavily regulated transit.

• Iranian Tactics:
  Shortly after agreeing to reopen the strait as part of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, Iran re-imposed closure, blaming Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. Iranian officials threatened that “any ship attempting to pass without permission could be destroyed.”

  “It’s one thing to say we’ve got a ceasefire. It’s another to actually have a ceasefire. And so far it’s more a theory than an actuality.” — Mike Baker [01:00]

• Toll Imposition:
  Iran proposes charging vessels about $1 per barrel to transit, payable in cryptocurrency—a maneuver to evade sanctions.

• Industry Paralyzation:

  • Major shipping companies are waiting for clarity and security; less than 15 ships are passing daily, compared to the prewar 130/day.
  • Insurance premiums are skyrocketing or coverage is simply unavailable:

    “Shipping doesn’t move unless it’s insured. And right now, insurers are looking at a region where mines have been laid, ships attacked, and the ceasefire itself is fragile at best.” — Mike Baker [07:30]

• Economic Ripple:
  Even as headlines cause oil prices to fall (“Brent crude pulling back as traders bet that supply disruptions might soon ease” [03:30]), real supply and refining disruptions persist, affecting not just crude but refined products like jet fuel.

Memorable Quote:

“Yes, oil prices dropped based on the headlines, but…the system that actually moves energy around the world…is still operating under war conditions.” — Mike Baker [09:15]

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2. Iran’s Cyber Assault on US Critical Infrastructure

[12:01–15:50]

• Escalation of Attacks:
  Iran-linked hackers have moved beyond probing into actively disrupting US oil, gas, and water systems. Some facilities have had to revert to manual operations, causing prolonged downtimes and financial losses.

• Vulnerabilities Exploited:
  The attacks target industrial programmable logic controllers (PLCs) through longstanding, known internet-facing vulnerabilities.

• US Response:
  The FBI and DHS are “urgently warning infrastructure operators” about the risk of destructive cyberattacks (“wipers” capable of erasing data and crippling systems) [13:50].

• Psychological & Strategic Impact:

  • Tehran uses high-profile leaks and boasts about intrusions to pressure the US without triggering kinetic response.
  • Example: Leaks from FBI Director Cash Patel and hacks of US medical device firms.

Notable Context:
“If you haven’t heard of Stuxnet or don’t know what Stuxnet is, it would be worth your time to Google it, as they say.” — Mike Baker [13:10], referencing the historic Iran nuclear program sabotage.

• Quote on Policy Lapses:

  “The companies who paid attention already removed those systems… The concern now is for the ones that didn’t because obviously those are the systems being targeted.” [15:21]

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3. Israel’s Most Intense Strikes on Hezbollah Amid Ceasefire Confusion

[15:51–19:15]

• Scale & Scope:
  Israel is conducting its “largest coordinated operation of the war so far,” striking over 100 Hezbollah targets in Beirut, the Beqa Valley, and southern Lebanon.

• Hezbollah’s Response:
  The group claims Israel’s actions are “barbaric aggression" and a violation of the ceasefire, despite their own record of attacks.

  “That’s coming from the group responsible for the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing…” — Mike Baker [18:10]

• Ceasefire Ambiguity:

  • Multiple narratives: US, Iran, and Israel each describe the ceasefire’s territorial scope differently.
  • Israel insists Lebanon and Hezbollah “are not part of the ongoing ceasefire.”
  • Contradiction from Pakistan (the intermediary), claiming Lebanon is included.

  “Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says a ceasefire with Iran does not apply to Lebanon and that operations against Hezbollah will continue regardless.” — Mike Baker [17:40]

• Israeli Strategic Goals:

  • Eliminating Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel, particularly its 150,000–200,000 missile arsenal.
  • Hezbollah is moving into densely populated Beirut, which could complicate future operations.

• Risks of Escalation:
  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns of a “regret-inducing response” if Israeli attacks continue [18:50], signaling potential regional escalation.

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4. “Back of the Brief”: Ukraine Turns the Tide in the Drone War

[20:09–24:05]

• Deployment Advantage:
  Ukraine now deploys 30% more strike drones than Russia—ratio reported at 1.3:1 in favor of Ukraine.

  “Ukraine now appears to be gaining an edge in scale, lethality and innovation.” — Mike Baker [23:35]

• Technological Edge:
  Usage of fiber optic-controlled drones (less susceptible to jamming) now makes up 32% of Ukrainian drone activity, versus Russia’s 24%.

• Impact on Battlefield:

  • Ukrainian strikes have destroyed an estimated $4 billion in Russian air defense systems over one year.
  • In March 2026 alone, Ukrainian drones accounted for 96% of Russian casualties—nearly 34,000 troops—according to President Zelensky.

• Caveats:
  Russian forces retain local drone superiority in certain sectors, making the battlefield highly variable.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the False Promise of the Strait’s Reopening:

  “It’s not like moving a few traffic cones to open a highway. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most tightly controlled and strategically sensitive choke points in the world.” — Mike Baker [04:10]

• On Ceasefire Confusion:

  “The U.S., Iran and Israel have all been describing the terms of the ceasefire differently, particularly when it comes to whether Lebanon is included.” — Mike Baker [17:25]

• On Cybersecurity Advisory:

  “Federal agencies say they are ‘urgently warning infrastructure operators about what’s happening,’ describing this campaign as one aimed at causing direct ‘disruptive effects within the US.’” — Mike Baker [14:10]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Strait of Hormuz Reality Check: 01:00–09:30
• Iran cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure: 12:01–15:50
• Israel–Hezbollah conflict escalation: 15:51–19:15
• Ukraine’s drone warfare edge: 20:09–24:05

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Summary

This episode delivers a brisk, sharply analytical rundown of today’s most volatile geostrategic crises. Baker exposes the fragility behind ceasefire headlines, highlights the mounting sophistication of state-backed cyber warfare, and charts the technological arms race defining modern conflicts from the Gulf to Eastern Europe. The tone is direct, no-nonsense, and often wry, providing listeners with both critical facts and practical context—arming the audience with information to “help solve America’s most pressing challenges.”

Transcript

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It's Thursday the 9th of April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up. Well, it's one thing to say we've got a ceasefire. It's another to actually have a ceasefire. And so far it's more a theory than an actuality. The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be open, but ships aren't moving. Iran is still in control of the critical Waterway, and the reality on that water looks very different from the headlines. Later in the show. Iran linked hackers target US Oil, gas and water systems, triggering a federal warning and raising fresh concerns about vulnerabilities inside America's critical infrastructure. Plus, Israel is making it clear that Hezbollah is not part of the ongoing ceasefire, ramping up its campaign in Lebanon with its most intense strikes yet. And in today's Back of the Brief, the balance shifts in Ukraine's drone fight, with Kyiv now deploying significantly more drones than Russia. But first, today's PDB spotlight. In theory, the Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be open again, but in reality, well, that has yet to happen. Just hours after agreeing to reopen the Strait, Iran moved to block oil tankers again, blaming Israeli strikes in Lebanon because apparently they're under the impression that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal. Iranian officials are now warning that any ship attempting to pass without permission could be destroyed. Well, that doesn't sound very ceasefire ish. After more than a month of fighting, Tehran initially agreed to allow vessels through the Critical Waterway as part of a two week ceasefire with the US and the markets, well, they liked what they heard. Oil prices dropped sharply on the news with Brent crude pulling back as traders bet that supply disruptions might soon ease. But here's the problem. The ships aren't moving. So far, there's been no meaningful surge in traffic through the strait, just a handful of vessels that have made the passage since the ceasefire took effect. No long queues forming, no rush of tankers trying to break through. In fact, most major shipping companies are still holding back, waiting to see whether this reopening does, in fact, happen. This isn't like moving a few traffic cones to reopen a highway. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most tightly controlled and strategically sensitive choke points in the world. And right now, Iran is still firmly in charge of who gets through and how. Under the current arrangement, vessels are expected to coordinate with Iranian military forces before transiting. That alone is enough to give many operators pause. But it doesn't stop there. We're now seeing reports from the Financial Times that Iran wants to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait, about $1 per barrel. Now, that may not sound like much, but for a large crude tanker carrying roughly 2 million barrels, you can do the math. Payments, according to the report, would be required in crypto, allowing Tehran to sidestep sanctions while maintaining tight control over who gets through and on what terms. And if ships don't comply, well, Iranian officials have made it clear those vessels could be targeted. So while Washington is talking about safe passage, the reality is something closer to conditional access, controlled, of course, by Tehran. It's why shipping companies aren't rushing back in. And there's also a logistics problem here. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the strait every single day. Now, analysts estimate that maybe 10 to 15 vessels can make the transit daily under the current system. Meanwhile, hundreds of ships are sitting on either side of the chokepoint waiting for clarity, what one executive described as a floating car park. Even in a best case scenario, it could take weeks, if not months, to work through that backlog. And then there's the real gatekeeper in all of this, the insurance industry. Shipping doesn't move unless it's insured. And right now, insurers are looking at a region where mines have been laid, ships attacked, and the ceasefire itself is fragile at best. Premiums are high, coverage is limited, and in some cases simply unavailable. If the strait does actually reopen in a meaningful way, well, the reality is that all it would take is one incident, a harassment, a drone strike, a mine strike, and confidence collapses all over again. That's the risk calculation the companies are making. And it's happening against a backdrop of a situation that remains unstable at best. Even as this ceasefire takes hold, Iran is still issuing threats about controlling access to the strait. And there are reports of continued attacks in the region, including missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf states. And Israel, for its part, is escalating operations elsewhere underscoring again just how fragile this pause in fighting really is. So when you step back, the picture becomes somewhat clearer. Yes, oil prices dropped based on the headlines, but the system that actually moves energy around the world, ships and insurers and operators, that system is still operating under war conditions. And even if traffic begins to pick up, the damage done during the conflict won't be reversed overnight. Refineries have been hit, storage facilities disrupted. Analysts estimate that around 10% of global oil supply has been knocked offline at various points during the fighting. That means even if crude starts flowing more freely, refined products such as jet fuel could remain tight for months. Alright, coming up next, Iran linked cyberattacks target US Oil, gas and water systems while Israel escalates their operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon with its heaviest strikes of the war. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment to talk about personal finances and the importance of diversifying your assets. So here's the do you own FISC physical Gold? Well, in today's world with its ups and downs and what some would consider general instability, owning gold is something that everyone should consider. And here's a top tip. Acre Gold makes it simple. That's Acre a C R E. With Acre Gold, you pick a plan that fits your budget, you make monthly payments, and when you've accumulated enough, well, they ship you a beautifully designed 24 karat Swiss gold bar. Gold is up 70 year over year. And central banks, well, they're still buying it up at record levels. The reality is smart money has been moving into hard assets for a reason. 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We've been tracking Iran's cyber activity for weeks now, but in the final hours before the ceasefire, Tehran appears to have escalated its efforts against the U.S. a new federal advisory warns that regime linked hackers have moved beyond simple probing, actively targeting systems tied to critical US infrastructure and in some cases, already causing real world disruptions. In multiple cases, those intrusions forced American oil, gas and water facilities to shut down automated processes and switch to manual operations, resulting in prolonged downtime and significant financial losses. Up to this point, most of what we've seen out of Iran and cyberspace has been disruptive, sometimes technologically embarrassing, but largely contained to data theft or surface level interference. What's different now is where these regime hacking campaigns are operating. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security say the hackers are targeting programmable logic controllers, or PLCs, the devices that enable industrial equipment to communicate and operate. And importantly, they're not breaking through heavily defended systems head on. The hackers are opportunistically targeting Internet facing components, entry points that in many cases have been flagged as vulnerable to hackers for years now. Once regime linked hackers are inside those systems, the risk changes entirely. It's not just about shutting something down, it's about the potential to manipulate how it runs, such as adjusting operating parameters, interfering with safety systems, and creating real world consequences inside facilities that Americans rely on daily. As an aside, if you haven't heard of Stuxnet or don't know what Stuxnet is, it would be worth your time to Google it, as they say. That's why federal cybersecurity officials are taking the latest advisory so seriously. In fact, federal agencies say they are, quote, urgently warning infrastructure operators about what's happening, describing this campaign as one aimed at causing direct, quote, disruptive effects within the US and there's another layer here that's worth paying attention to. According to sources familiar with the advisory, this isn't a new vulnerability, it's an old one that hasn't been fully addressed. One source said government and experts have been warning about Internet connected systems for years and how vulnerable they are. The companies who paid attention already removed those systems and followed the guidance. The concern now is for the ones that didn't because obviously those are the systems being targeted. And in some cases, hackers have attempted to deploy destructive malware or wipers designed to erase data and cripple systems entirely. It's still unclear how successful those efforts were, but again, the intent is clear. Now here on the pdb, we've been watching a steady pattern from Iran Link's cyber groups. In recent months they've leaked private emails as an example from FBI Director Cash Patel, disrupted operations at a major American medical device company, and in many cases they've gone online boasting about those and other intrusions as part of a psychological campaign. American intelligence agencies have been warning about this trajectory as well. In their annual worldwide threat assessment released last month, they said Tehran maintains a persistent intent to target the US and its allies in cyberspace. So even as President Trump signals a two week ceasefire with Iran, this kind of cyber activity gives Tehran a way to keep pressure on the US without perhaps triggering direct military retaliation. Okay, I want to turn now to Lebanon, where Israel is carrying out the most intense strikes of its current conflict with Hezbollah. Even as the terror group reportedly stands down under the ceasefire tied to the US And Iran in what officials in the Jewish state are describing as the largest coordinated operation of the war so far, Israel is hitting more than 100 Hezbollah targets across Beirut, the Beqa Valley and southern Lebanon. What we're seeing is a sustained high volume air campaign aimed squarely at Hezbollah's command centers and military infrastructure. The Hezbollah aligned Lebanese Health Ministry says at least 112 people have been killed, though those numbers haven't been independently verified. However, Reuters confirms that hospitals do appear to be under visible strain. Now here's what stands out about the timing of these strikes because all of this is happening as Hezbollah has reportedly paused its attacks. According to multiple reports, the Iran backed terror group stood down under what it believed was a two week ceasefire tied to the broader U S Iran agreement. In fact, it ties directly into something we've been discussing here on the podcast, this growing confusion over what the ceasefire actually covers. Because the U.S. iran and Israel have all been describing the terms of the ceasefire differently, particularly when it comes to whether Lebanon is included. But Israel has made its position very clear. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Says a ceasefire with Iran does not apply to Lebanon and that operations against Hezbollah will continue regardless. And that contradicts what we were hearing from the Pakistani prime minister who was acting as an intermediary in the U. S. Iran cease fire talks and indicated that Lebanon would in fact be included in the agreement regardless of who had the right interpretation. From Hezbollah's perspective, Israel's actions are a violation of the ceasefire. The terror group is calling the strikes, quote, barbaric aggression. Oh, well, that's coming from the group responsible for the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241Americans and 58 French. And of course they, they also took the CIA station chief William Buckley off the streets in Beirut, torturing him and eventually killing him after 14 months in captivity. Of course, then there was the Khobar Towers bombing, not to mention various hijackings and embassy bombings and years of rocket attacks on Israel, including in support of the hamas brutalities on the 7th of October, 2023. Well, I guess that does make them qualified to talk about barbaric aggression. A senior Hezbollah lawmaker is warning that the Israeli attacks are a grave violation of the U. S. Iran ceasefire, adding that there will be repercussions for the entire agreement if they continue. Now what those supposed repercussions will be is anyone's guess. But from Jerusalem's perspective, the objective hasn't changed. Israeli officials argue that Hezbollah still poses a direct and ongoing threat to northern Israel, particularly through its rocket arsenal and anti tank capabilities. Over the past couple of years, it has been estimated that Hezbollah maintains an arsenal of anywhere between 150,000 and 200,000 Rocke missiles, most provided to the group by their benefactor Iran. And now there are growing concerns that Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure are shifting beyond their traditional strongholds, moving into more densely populated and religiously mixed areas of Beirut. And that matters because it changes how this war might be fought. An Israeli military spokesman addressed that directly, warning Hezbollah that Israeli forces will pursue you and act with great force against you wherever you are. In other words, the battlefield is no longer confined to Hezbollah's traditional zones. At the same time, the regional stakes are starting to rise again. Iran's Revolutionary Guard is warning of a regret inducing response if these strikes continue, signaling that even though Hezbollah paused, Tehran may not remain on the sidelines for long. Coming up in the back of the brief. Ukraine pulls ahead in the drone war, using a growing fleet of strike UAVs to gain a battlefield. More on that story when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for Dog lovers everywhere. Now, if you're like me, dogs are an important part of family life, right? We've got two. Our 14 year old golden retriever, Hendrix, and our very cute but somewhat dim witted King Charles spaniel, Monty. Right. But when it comes to dog food, I think you know this, there always seems to be a compromise, right? It's either fresh and healthy or it's easy to store and serve. And that's why we love sundaes for dogs. With the Sundaes for Dogs brand, you get both fresh and healthy dog food that's easy to store and serve. 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in today's Back of the brief, we turn to the war in Ukraine, where new data suggests Kiev may be g ground in one of the most critical aspects of the modern battlefield, and that would be drone warfare. According to reporting from United24 Media citing Ukrainian officials, Ukraine's armed forces are now deploying roughly 30% more strike drones than Russian troops across the front line, a notable shift in what has become a drone dominated conflict. The figure comes from Brigadier General Pavlo Palissa, a senior official in Ukraine's presidential office, who said the current ratio of frontline strike drone usage now stands at 1.3 to 1 in Ukraine's favor. And according to Polisa, that increased volume is already translating into battlefield results. Earlier in the war, particularly during periods of Russian offensive operations, Moscow held a clear advantage in drone deployment, especially with so called first person view or FPV drones, which have become central to targeting troops and armor and defensive positions at the tactical level. But Ukrainian officials say they've not only closed that gap, they're starting to reverse it. And it's not just about quantity. Polisa also pointed to the growing use of fiber optic controlled drones, which are significantly harder to jam or disrupt. He said those systems now account for roughly 32% of Ukraine's Daily Strike drone usage, compared to about 24% on the Russian side. At the same time, he acknowledged that Russia is continuing to improve its own systems, meaning that this remains a highly competitive and rapidly evolving fight. And importantly, this advantage is not uniform across the battlefield. Police have noted that Russian forces are still able to concentrate drone assets in specific sectors, creating localized advantages, what he described as dominance in the, quote, small sky to support ground assaults and tactical breakthroughs. So while the overall trend may be shifting, the fight remains highly uneven, depending on the front. Still, there are signs this shift is beginning to have broader operational effects. Ukraine's Security Service says its strikes have destroyed at least $4 billion worth of Russian air defense systems over the past year, including S300 and S400 systems, helping degrade Russia's layered defenses and open corridors for long range drone operations deeper inside Russian territory. That aligns with separate reporting from ABC News, which found that in March, Ukraine launched more long range attack drones than Russia for the first time since 2022, another indicator that Kyiv's exp domestic drone production is starting to reshape the balance. And there's additional data that underscores just how dominant their drones have become on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Zelensky said recently that in March alone, drones accounted for roughly 96% of Russian casualties, with nearly 34,000 troops killed or wounded by drone strikes. Taken together, the data points to a clear trajectory for Ukrainian forces as the war grinds into its fifth year. After spending much of the war playing catch up in the drone space, Ukraine now appears to be gaining an edge in scale, lethality and innovation. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday 9th April. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to [e-mail] and finally, I hope you'll check out our YouTube channel, voted by several members of my family, frankly, as their favorite YouTube channel. Just search up Presidence Daily Brief and if you like what you see, I hope you'll hit the subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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