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The President's Daily Brief
August 11th, 2026: Putin Mulls False Flag Attack on NATO & Inside North Korea's AI Hacking Campaign
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It's Tuesday, the 11th of August. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, NATO's eastern members are quietly preparing for what they fear could be Russia's next move. Intelligence shared with Reuters suggests that the Kremlin may be considering a false flag attack designed not simply to damage critical infrastructure, but to sow confusion and division inside the NATO alliance. I'll have the details later in the show. Ukraine finally gets an answer from tech billionaire Elon Musk on whether it can use Starlink to help strike Russian targets. And President Trump agrees to keep Patriot missiles flowing to Kyiv. But there is a catch. There aren't enough to meet Ukraine's demands. Plus, another South American country is lining up behind President Trump's fight against narco terrorism. Colombia's new conservative president is promising a sweeping drug crackdown. And Washington is putting serious money behind that effort. And in today's Back of the Brief, Kim Jong Un, remember him well. Kim's hackers are adding artificial intelligence to their cyber arsenal. That doesn't sound good. We'll break down a new South Korean report revealing how North Korea is using AI to automate its attacks. But first, today's PDB spotlight. For much of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders have worried that Vladimir Putin could eventually look beyond the battlefield in Ukraine and begin testing NATO. Last Friday, we told you that US Intelligence had quietly changed one of its core assumptions about the war, concluding that Moscow may now be willing to challenge the alliance through a range of limited military or hybrid attacks. Now, new reporting from Reuters suggests America's allies along NATO's eastern front are already preparing for exactly that possibility. According to officials in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Governments across the region are strengthening security around critical infrastructure amid growing concern that Russia could stage a so called false flag attack on a NATO member using Ukrainian drones. It's an operation designed to make it appear as though Kyiv were responsible. The objective would extend far beyond damaging a power plant or natural gas facility. According to intelligence assessments shared with Reuters. Officials fear the real goal would be to trigger political confusion inside NATO, forcing member states to debate whether the attack was genuine, who was actually responsible, and ultimately whether the alliance would respond at all. The Kremlin, of course, dismisses those allegations entirely. Well, that's surprising. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov described repeated warnings about Russian covert attacks as scare stories designed to justify militarization against Russia. Well, actually, if you think about it, the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent four year plus war. Well, that kind of justifies militarization against Russia. But Western concern has prompted a noticeable shift in how several frontline NATO countries are preparing. Lithuania has deployed military personnel to help secure its liquefied natural gas terminal, oil facilities, a major power link with Poland and one of the country's largest hydroelectric plants. Latvia has increased security around key gas storage sites and critical dams, while Polish officials say they're reviewing alternative gas import routes, increasing vigilance around energy infrastructure and investigating what appear to be forged documents connected to the country's first nuclear power project. Those precautions show just how seriously governments across the region are taking the threat. Their concern is that Russia could exploit critical infrastructure not simply as a military target, but but as a tool for political coercion. To be clear, officials are not saying that such an attack is necessarily imminent. Lithuania's defense minister stressed last week that while intelligence indicates Russia is in a planning phase and officials say an operation could be carried out within days, once approved by senior Russian leaders, there's no indication that a decision has been made to execute an operation. Another regional official put the uncertainty more bluntly, telling Reuters an attack could happen, quote, between today and never. Well, that narrows it down. But the intelligence is mounting that Moscow may soon choose escalation. As we discussed on Friday, US Intelligence now believes that Putin could test NATO through a spectrum of provocations ranging from cyber attacks and sabotage to limited military incursions. One idea allegedly being considered is to stage an attack inside Russia using Ukrainian drones, potentially blaming their launch on the Baltic states and creating a pretext for retaliation beyond Ukraine's borders. Today's Reuters reporting suggests several of America's closest allies are increasingly preparing for this broad range of potential threats. And fears over the security of NATO's eastern front may only grow if Russia's strategic position continues to deteriorate. Despite making incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, Russian forces continue to sustain heavy casualties, while Ukraine's expanding long range drone campaign strikes military facilities, energy infrastructure and logistics hubs deep inside Russia, placing growing strain on Russia's already struggling economy. Against that backdrop, Ukrainian President Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, has warned that the Kremlin may seek to mobilize as many as 500,000 additional troops following Russia's parliamentary elections in in late September. That's a claim that has not been independently verified. Meanwhile, Turkey's foreign minister has warned that a prolonged war of attrition could continue, raising the risk of broader escalation, including what he described as Russia's quote Last option. That's a reference to Moscow's nuclear arsenal. Whether Moscow follows through on any of these plans now at this point is relatively impossible to know. But the broader threat is becoming harder to dismiss. As Russia appears to prepare for a longer war and Putin faces growing pressure. NATO governments are increasingly preparing for the possibility that Putin's next escalation will not remain confined to Ukraine and that Moscow may try to exploit confusion and hesitation inside the NATO alliance. Alright, coming up next, Elon Musk declines to let Ukraine use Starlink to help strike targets deep inside Russian territory. And Colombia's new conservative president promises a sweeping drug crackdown down with major financial backing from Washington. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're a regular PDB listener, and I hope you are, you know that I'm constantly on the road traveling, which I think makes me a bit of a savant when it comes to luggage. I know what makes a great suitcase, which is why I want to talk to you about NOBL Travel. That's nobl. N O B L. Let me tell you about the Noble all in one. Carry on. Look, this genius zipperless design features a latch lock system that closes like a safe. It's secure, unlike all the bags out there using zippers. And beyond security, it fixes just about every major travel headache. Look, you need a charge. Well, there's a built in power port. You stressed a TSA trying to find your laptop for the security line. Well, there's a front laptop pocket that offers instant access. There's even a flip out coffee cup holder and ultra smooth 360 degree wheels. Look, it's trusted by thousands of flight attendants. And Noble comes with a lifetime warranty. Come on. Noble gives you real travel, peace of mind, security, design and convenience all in one. Head to nobletravel.com, for up to 46% off your entire order. That's NOBL Travel. N O B L nobletravel.com for up to 46% off. And after you purchase? Well, they'll ask where you heard about them. Do me a favor, let them know the PDB sent you. Welcome back to the pdb. Ukrainian President Zelensky is finding that some of Kiev's biggest military challenges now involve receiving access to the American technology and weapons the Kyiv says it needs to keep fighting. And we're getting new developments on two of those issues. Starlink and Patriot missiles. Let's start with Elon Musk, shall we? Late last month, when Zelensky traveled to the White House to discuss Kiev's production of its own defense systems. He also tried to arrange a face to face meeting with Musk. The Ukrainian president wanted to make his case personally for expanding Keev's access to Starlink, basically the idea being that would allow Ukrainian forces to use the satellite network to support strikes against Russian military target deeper inside Russia. Musk declined the meeting, but that did not end Zelenskyy's efforts. While at the White House, he appealed directly to President Trump, asking him to intervene and persuade the billionaire to lift the geographic restrictions preventing Ukraine from using the SpaceX operated network for those strikes. And now, after all those efforts to change Musk's mind, Ukraine appears to have gotten a definitive answer. And it's a no. New reporting from the Atlantic says Musk is refusing to allow Starlink to be used to help gu guide long range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. And what Kyiv wants to target helps explain why Zelenskyy has been pushing so hard. Ukraine wants to use a network to help hunt down Russian missile batteries, including mobile launchers that can fire ballistic missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities and then rapidly relocate before Ukrainian forces can strike back. But Musk isn't willing to give Ukraine that capability. His concern reportedly is that allowing Starlink to facilitate deep strikes inside Russia is could dangerously escalate the war, and Zelenskyy's appeal to Trump apparently hasn't changed that position. Trump reportedly did not give Zelenskyy a clear answer on whether he would personally press Musk to lift the restrictions. But Kyiv hasn't only been working through the White House. Ukraine's former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov has been pursuing Musk through informal back channels as well. According to reporting, two of his close associates told the Atlantic that Fedorov has been trying to reach the billionaires since being fired from his post. So far, none of that has worked. Instead, Musk only delivered Kyiv a message about where he believes this war should go from here, saying it is time to make a deal for peace. That's easy to say if you're not the invaded country. So when it comes to Starlink, Ukraine now has a definitive answer from Musk. But when it comes to Patriot missiles, the answer from Washington is different. The US has agreed to keep them coming, but the problem is, well, there aren't enough to go around. Zelenskyy announced on Saturday during a joint press conference with the Serbian president in Belgrade that Kyiv secured agreements for monthly deliveries of the highly sought after U S made Patriot interceptor missiles. But Ukraine will receive fewer of them in 2026 than they did in 2025. Notably, Zelenskyy wouldn't say exactly how many missiles Ukraine will receive. Well, that makes sense, arguing that revealing the number would give Russia information that Kyiv wants to keep secret. But when asked about whether the monthly American deliveries will actually provide Ukraine with enough interceptors, his answer was straightforward, saying, will they supply us with missiles every month? Yes, we have agreements. Are these missiles enough? No. End quote. The Trump administration has agreed to keep supplying the interceptors. But patriots, as you may well know, are among the most sought after air defense weapons in the world. American production has to support the US Military while also meeting commitments to allies around the globe. And that's why Zelenskyy is now looking elsewhere. Several European countries have Patriot interceptors in their own arsenals, and Kyiv is reportedly negotiating with those governments in hopes that they'll part with some of their existing supply. Okay, I want to turn now to Colombia, where the country's shift to the political right is also aligning it much closer to President Trump's narco terrorism campaign, with Washington pledging security assistance to help Bogota fight that drug trade and the armed groups behind it. Just hours after Abelardo Esprilla was sworn in as Colombia's new conservative president Friday, the Trump administration announced plans to provide his government with $1 billion in security assistance. The timing is important because Espriella campaigned on a promise to restore order, confront the armed groups operating across the country, and take a much harder line against the drug trade. That's a significant change of course from where the U. S. Colombia relationship stood under former radical leftist president Gustavo Petro. Esprillo has blamed his socialist predecessor for allowing armed groups to expand across the country. Interestingly, although not surprisingly, Petro has not recognized his successor's election victory. Speaking to troops during a fiery 75 minute speech at a military base, the new president declared that Colombia was closing what he called a long chapter of national resignation. Then he delivered a warning directly to the criminal organizations and narco terrorist groups that his government intends to confront, saying the time has come to restore order, authority and freedom. And for the gangs themselves, Esprit offered two choices. To submit to the rule of law or face the Colombian state and its security forces. He declared that the option of peace talks with armed groups has been completely exhausted. His government is now preparing to pair that tougher security policy with an aggressive campaign against the cocaine industry that finances many of those criminal organizations. At the center of that effort is coca, the plant, of course, used to produce cocaine. Espriella vowed to definitively eradicate the scourge of illicit crops, including through aerial herbicide campaigns that he says will not harm human health or the environment. Beyond security, Espriella has also campaigned on shrinking the size of the state by as much as 40%, reviving Colombia's oil and gas industry, and pursuing austerity measures aimed at restoring confidence in the country's economy. In announcing the assistance package Friday, the State Department described Colombia as a cornerstone of this renewed partnership. The U.S. working with Congress, intends to provide $1 billion in security assistance to help Colombia's new government achieve what Washington called the two countries shared goals. Now, that relationship did not suddenly begin when Espria took office. Trump endorsed the conservative before the June runoff, and now he's moving quickly to deepen that relationship. In one of his first acts as president, Espriella announced that Colombia will join Trump's Shield of the Americas security initiative. Colombia's shift is also part of a broader political movement that we've been watching here on the pdb. All across Latin America, from Argentina and Ecuador to Peru, Panama, Chile, and Bolivia, battered socialist economies and rising crime have pushed voters toward candidates promising tougher policing, economic reform, and more aggressive action against organized crime. For the Trump administration, Colombia may offer another test of whether a tougher approach to drugs and narco terrorism can reshape the security landscape much closer to home. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, South Korean intelligence warns that Kim Jong Un's hackers are adding artificial intelligence to their already sophisticated cyber arsenal. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a pro tip for everybody out there who loves delicious food and frankly, who doesn't love delicious food. Now, have you heard of Gold Belly? I gotta tell you about this. Gold Belly ships America's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants straight to your door anywhere in the usa. Seriously. It's that simple. Bob's your uncle. Look, I've ordered, ordered all sorts of food from Goldbelly ribs, pulled pork, McLoone's lobster rolls from Maine. Those are delicious cupcakes. Everything's great. Everything shows up fast, perfectly packed and absolutely delicious. It really is incredibly simple. Ordering is very easy. Look, I've ordered from Gold Belly to feed folks at barbecue nights, game nights, poker evenings at the compound. 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They're completely nicotine free and caffeine free. Instead, neuroscientists formulated them with clinically proven nootropics like Infinity PX for a smooth, crash free focus. Whether you need to focus on work or maybe a workout, Ultra pouches are perfect for a cal steady flow state without the anxiety. Ultra is the ultimate guilt free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use code PDB to get 15% off@takeultra.com that's takeultra.com for 15% off with code PDB. And after you purchase, well, they may ask you what you heard about them. Do me a favor if you don't mind. Tell them the PDB sent you in today's Back of the brief. I want to turn to North Korea, where Kim Jong Un's cyber spies are embracing artificial intelligence to make one of the regime's most effective weapons even more dangerous. A new report from South Korean cybersecurity firm Genions offers a closer look at how that's happening. Researchers say Kim Suki, one of Kim's regime controlled hacking groups, has been using AI generated documents in a pattern of spear phishing attacks aimed at targets in the military, diplomacy and academia. Once opened, they collect rapid amounts of information from their target and the operation appears to be fairly straightforward. Instead of forcing North Korean hackers to spend their time manually creating every fake research paper and conference invitation or investment report that they want to send out, AI can now do much of that work for them and do it much quicker. The result is exactly the kind of document that you'd expect to land in the inbox of a researcher, diplomat or defense official. Looks professional, sounds legitimate. GDIANS says its researchers found finance and cryptocurrency themed decoys designed to resemble legitimate investment reports and other workplace documents. As the firm explains it, AI can generate highly polished documents on a wide range of topics within a short period of time, making it a highly efficient tool for hackers. And for that, the folks at Genius win today's PDB Statement of the Obvious award. But here's where the operation gets more interesting. Kim's hackers don't necessarily need to connect to a major online AI service to produce any of it, Genius says. Kim Suki has been using open source tools including Ollama, GPT4All and MSTI to run large language models entirely offline. That means the hackers can generate their malicious content without an Internet connection, a method that Genius says helps them avoid detection. Genius warns that what it's seeing goes beyond a shift in how decoy documents are created, demonstrating that AI can enable the automation and large scale production of social engineering attacks. And Kintsuki isn't some new hacking outfit experimenting on the fringes of North Korea's cyber apparatus. It's been linked directly to the regime's intelligence services. The US treasury sanctioned Kim Suki in 2023, identifying it as a North Korean government controlled cyber espionage group that gathers intelligence in support of Pyongyang's strategic objectives. And if you've been listening to the PDB for a while, and I certainly hope that you have, you've heard me talk about this before. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic estimates that North Korean hackers stole more than $2 billion worth of cryptocurrency in just the first nine months of last year. And for a regime squeezed by years of international sanctions, that's an enormous amount of money and another reminder of why cybercrime has become such a valuable tool for Pyongyang. So North Korea didn't actually need AI in order to become a serious cyber threat. What Genience is warning about is what happens when Kim's experienced hackers take an operation they've spent years building and start using artificial intelligence to enhance their already aggressive and pervasive efforts. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 11th August. If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool, Sat.