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The President's Daily Brief
August 5th, 2025: Russia’s Secret Economic Meltdown & Trump’s Warning to India
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- [00:00]
Mike Baker
Looking to diversify and protect your hard earned assets. Well, schedule a free consultation call with the Birch Gold Group. They're the precious metals specialists. Just text PDB to the number 989-898 and you'll receive a free no obligation information kit. And you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to the number 989898. Foreign 5 August welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Russia's government never really won for transparency, is taking additional steps to obfuscate when it comes to the state of Russia's economy. And yes, I did use the word obfuscate. You're welcome. Restricting access to key data as analysts warn of a deepening slowdown in their economy. We'll have those details later in the show. US President Trump says India's buying Russian oil and bankrolling the war in Ukraine. Well, he's, he's correct about that. Now he's threatening to hit them where it hurts. But India says meh. Plus, Hamas releases another propaganda video featuring an Israeli hostage. World leaders and frankly, anybody with a pulse and a sense of empathy calling it cruel and inhumane. And in today's back of the brief, fighter jets scrambled over New Jersey after multiple planes violated restricted airspace over President Trump's Bedminster property. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The clock continues to tick down for Russian President Putin. As we reported last week, President Trump gave the Russian leader a 10 day deadline to begin seriously pursuing a ceasefire with Ukraine. Well, that deadline is set to expire on Friday. The President announced that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to travel to Russia later this week, either Wednesday or Thursday, for what's being described as last chance ceasefire talks. Although it does seem like there have been other last chances before regarding this. So maybe this will be like the, the third last chance if there's such a thing. But even if Russia came to the table to deal, which still looks highly unlikely, what kind of hand would it really be playing? Many analysts and pundits over the past year have expressed the opinion that Russia's economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, that Putin can't afford to keep up the war effort. Well, thus far he's proven those experts wrong, in part because his small circle of allies, which basically is China, India, Iran and North Korea, have provided critical economic support. But the question is exactly what is the state of the Russian economy? And from an economic standpoint, the answer is we don't really know. And that's not just speculation. Well, that's by design. Russia is now actively hiding indicators of its economic health. The country's statistics agency, Rostat, has stopped publishing key data across the board. No inflation adjusted retail figures, no real GDP updates, no monthly population data, and no breakdowns of mortality or crime time. All of that information has quietly disappeared. Even analysts at Russia's own state owned Promsvyasbank are raising red flags. And that's worth paying attention to, because Promsvaz bank isn't some independent think tank. It's the Kremlin's own financial arm, built to serve the defense sector and sanctioned industries. So when even they're pointing to signs of trouble, it's a strong signal that the problems are too big to ignore. In a new report, they suggest that the Kremlin is suppressing data to mask an economic slowdown. According to their estimates, retail sales in June were far weaker than official numbers suggest, and wholesale trades may have dropped by as much as 10% in real terms. So to put it plainly, the Kremlin is pulling the curtains closed. This blackout isn't just about numbers. It's about optics. Moscow doesn't want domestic or foreign audiences to see just how much pressure the system is under. And there are some recent indications that that pressure is mounting. Let's take a look right now at two pillars of the Russian economy. Industries that have long underpinned the country's global strength and internal stability. That would be steel and oil. Okay, first, let's take a look at steel. Russia's steel industry isn't just another sector. It's one of the country's industrial crown jewels. It employs over 600,000 workers and brings in roughly 10% of all export revenues. But now even top executives are sounding the alarm. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the CEO of Severstall, one of the biggest steel companies in Russia, said the industry is facing the loss of nearly 6 million tons of demand this year. To put that in perspective, that's about 10% of total national output. The reasons? Well, the reasons include a strong ruble, high interest rates and collapsing demand at home and abroad. Exporting steel is no longer profitable, and domestic construction has slowed to a crawl. The warning couldn't be clearer. In the CEO's own words, we may see production halts at some plants, especially those struggling with high production costs. And that's not a hypothetical. Two of the biggest producers NLMK and MMK have already reported losses in the billions of rubles. So, yes, Russia's steel industry is feeling the pain. Now, how about their oil industry? Well, I'm glad you asked. Russia is still one of the world's largest oil producers, but its grip is starting to slip. According to a report from the International Energy Agency, the iea, because of course, it has an acronym, Russian oil exports, both crude and refined products, have fallen to their lowest seasonal levels in five years. So let that sink in. At a time when Russia needs every bit of energy revenue to fund its war machine, oil exports are tanking. The IEA says this slump raises serious doubts about Russia's ability to sustain long term production capacity. And with Moscow now hiding key oil production data, independent analysts are left cobbling together estimates using ship tracking, refinery throughput, and guesswork. Meanwhile, Russia has been forced to reroute more crude oil to domestic use, especially ahead of the agricultural season, further tightening export flows. And though global oil prices have helped prop up revenue, for now, don't let that fool you. The underlying trend is one of decline. Plus, due to sanctions, Russia has been forced to sell oil and gas to China and India at discounted prices. Essentially, their allies are taking advantage of Putin. So, in short, you've got a Russian government that's refusing to release economic data, a steel sector warning of imminent collapse, and, and an oil industry slowly bleeding capacity. Russia may still project military defiance, but the numbers, when you can find them, while they tell a different story. A country hiding its books is rarely a country confident in its footing. Now, it's important to be pragmatic here. Russia's economy isn't about to collapse tomorrow. Right? It's, it's large, it's heavily centralized and still fueled by energy revenues. But cracks are showing. And for a regime that thrives on the image of strength, well, those cracks are getting harder to plaster over. All right, coming up after the break, Trump threatens India over Russian oil. And Hamas releases another hostage video condemned worldwide as cruel propaganda. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about protecting your hard earned assets. Now, you've probably noticed out there in the world, there's a little turmoil in the economy, both in the US and globally. All right? Trade wars, a US Federal Reserve that seems a bit at odds with the White House. Uncertainty over unemployment numbers, a volatile stock market. Well, you know, you get the picture. And it's at times like these that it's important for you to think about your assets. And how to protect them. And one way to protect those assets is through diversification. And I'm here to suggest that you consider diversifying with gold through the Birch Gold Group. Now, for decades gold has been viewed as a safe haven in times of economic stagnation and high inflation and global uncertainty. And Birch Gold makes it incredibly easy for you to diversify some of your savings into gold. If you have an IRA or an old 401k, you can convert that into a tax sheltered IRA in physical gold. Or like a lot of folks, you can just buy gold and store it safely at home. 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- [09:32]
Piers Morgan
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- [09:59]
Mike Baker
Paid for by Electronic Payments Coalition. Welcome back to the pdb. As the White House engages in a last ditch effort to revive meaningful peace negotiations with the Putin regime, President Trump is turning his ire on Russia's remaining global trading partners, who are obviously helping prop up Moscow's floundering wartime economy. As we're talking about in the last segment, Russia still remains one of the world's largest oil producers, with oil and natural gas exports accounting for roughly a quarter of their entire federal budget. But exports of both crude and refined products are hitting five year lows, squeezing a critical source of wartime revenue. Now there are two countries in particular that have been key to helping the Putin regime sustain their oil trade, and that would be China and India. According to a report from Reuters, China remains the largest buyer of Russian oil at about 2 million barrels per day, followed closely by India and Turkey. But India still holds the title of being the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil, aggressively boosting imports after Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine back in February of 2022. New Delhi had historically purchased the majority of their oil from the Middle east, but as Western purchases of Russian oil dried up following the invasion, the Kremlin was forced to start selling their products at discounted rates to attract new buyers. India filled that void in a major way, boosting imports from just 68,000 barrels per day in January of 2022 to roughly 1.12 million barrels per day by June of that year. Yeah, that's considered quite an imports peaked at 2.15 million barrels per day in May of 2023 and remain near that level now, after China and the U.S. india is the world's third largest importer of crude oil, making their arrangement with Russia as necessary to their own domestic needs as it is to Russia's wartime economy. Now, with all that in mind, Trump has given Russia until Friday to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine or face severe economic consequences. Specifically, he's threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Russian goods, as well as a 100% secondary tariff on any country that continues to trade with Moscow. On Monday, President Trump singled out India, accusing them of profiteering off the war in Ukraine after India failed to reach a new trade deal with the U.S. before last Friday's tariff deadline, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all goods from India. And on Monday, he threatened additional import taxes due to New Delhi's ongoing purchases of Russian oil. That's according to a report from Axios. Trump said, quote, india is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits. They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine because of this, I will be substantially raising the tariff paid by by India to the usa, end quote. Trump hasn't yet elaborated on his plans, so it remains unclear how high the tariff will go, but it promises to have a potentially severe impact on India's economy. Bracing for that impact, India's largest oil refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, recently paused Russian crude purchases, instead buying 7 million barrels of U.S. canadian and Middle Eastern crude for delivery in September. But government leaders in New Delhi remain defiant. In a statement on X, India's Ministry of External affairs denounced Trump's tariff threat as, quote, unjustified and unreasonable. A spokesman noted that India only began importing Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe due to the war. Indian officials indicated they will continue buying oil from Russia, calling their relationship with Moscow steady and time tested. They argue their purchases are guided by the availability of oil in the markets and prevailing global circumstances. They also lashed out at Europe and America. Now, this is very interesting and you need to pay attention here over their own ongoing imports from Russia, meaning Europe and America's imports from Russia, which include energy products, fertilizers and industrial chemicals, accusing the west of blatant hypocrisy on the issue. And frankly, you know what? They're not wrong. Indeed, as we previously discussed, last year the European Union spent more money on indirectly purchasing Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid to Ukraine. Think about that. Most is purchased through a massive loophole in EU sanctions that allows countries to legally buy Moscow's crude, provided it's first refined into fuels elsewhere. Okay? Think about how stupid that is when you set up sanctions. Ironically, most of these Russian fuel products are coming into Europe through trade with India as well as China and Turkey. And look, the US frankly, is doing the same thing. Indian officials said it was, quote, revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia. End quote. And again, they're not wrong. Regarding Trump's tariff threat, India's Ministry of External affairs said they will, quote, take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security, setting up a major diplomatic showdown with the White House. Alright. Turning to the war in Gaza, Israeli hostage Ev Yatar David has become the latest face of Hamas's gruesome propaganda campaign. The terror group released a video showing the frail young man digging what he calls his own grave, sparking outrage from global leaders. Now, we touched on this briefly in Monday's pdb, but since then condemnation has intensified as more officials respond to the video's disturbing imagery. David, a 24 year old civilian, was kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival during the 7th of October 2023 Hamas terror attacks. In the footage, he is seen severely emaciated and barely recognizable, confined in a narrow tunnel, ticking off days on a calendar while forced to speak to the camera under duress. The video is interspersed with footage of malnourished Palestinian children in what appears to be an effort by Hamas to to blur the line between victim and perpetrator, to manipulate global opinion in its psychological warfare campaign. French President Emmanuel Macron blasted the video as abject cruelty and unlimited inhumanity, saying it, quote, embodies Hamas. Macron reiterated demands for the immediate release of all remaining hostages and called for Hamas's total disarmament, exclusion from government, and Israel's recognition of any future Palestinian state. Now, as our regular PDB listeners know, that last point tracks with France's July announcement to formally recognize a Palestinian state during the UN General assembly in September. German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz also weighed in, calling the footage appalling and stressing that Hamas has no role to play in Gaza's future. He echoed calls for a ceasefire, but noted that Israel must continue delivering aid despite Hamas use of civilians as human shields. EU foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas didn't hold back either. She said the video revealed the barbarity of the Iran backed terror group and reiterated that Hamas must relinquish its grip on the enclave. David's family, meanwhile, released a statement describing him as a living skeleton buried alive. His brother, speaking to Israeli broadcaster Khan, said their father was broken by the footage. Struggling to recognize his son's now fragile voice, let alone his frail body. He likened David's appearance to that of Holocaust victims, invoking the term musalman, historically used to describe concentration camp prisoners on the brink of death. David is believed to be one of 20 hostages still alive in Hamas captivity. Of the 250 taken on 7 October, 140 were released. In earlier negotiations, eight were rescued and 57 have died in captivity. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, President Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, met with hostage families in Tel Aviv over the weekend. He told them, we are going to be successful here, ultimately promising that any ceasefire deal would bring all the captives home. Trump weighed in Sunday, brushing off claims that Israel's war effort amounts to genocide. He said, quote, I don't think it's that they're in a war. Adding that the US Is taking the lead on humanitarian aid delivery to Palestinian civilians. Before boarding Air Force One, Trump said, we're the only country that's really doing that. We're putting up money to get the people fed. Now that aid effort is being channeled through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a joint U S. Israeli initiative designed to bypass Hamas and to deliver relief directly to civilians. The foundation marks a shift away from the UN led system, which Israeli officials argue has long been manipulated by Hamas to siphon off supplies and to bolster their grip on the Strip's population. Alright, coming up next, in the back of the brief fighter jets, flares and a weekend of airspace violations near Trump's New Jersey home. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I suspect you already know this, but we are officially deep into the dog days of summer, right when it's too hot outside to think it's. It's almost too hot to hang outside. 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- [21:37]
Apply I'm Piers Morgan, the host of the Piers Morgan Uncensored podcast. We do big interviews and we do big debates about whatever's getting people talking. We make news, we make noise, and we make a little bit of trouble too. Come and see what all the fuss is about. You can listen to Piers Morgan Uncensored on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:06]
In today's Back of the Brief, we turn to New Jersey, where fighter jets and flares briefly filled the skies this weekend over President Trump's Bedminster golf retreat. Officials with the North American Aerospace Defense Command, more commonly known as NORAD because again, of course it has an acronym, were forced to scramble several fighter aircraft on Sunday after a civilian plane entered restricted airspace over Bedminster, New Jersey, that's home to a sprawling golf club owned by the president. It was one of seven aircraft to violate the airspace over the weekend. Seven. According to a report from CBS News, three of the civilian flights flew over the Bedminster property on Saturday, but left the area shortly after without incident. But four more violated the restricted space on Sunday, including one that had to be intercepted by fighter jets. Officials with NORAD said that at one point, flares were deployed to get the pilot's attention. What was he doing? Sleeping? And that the plane was later safely escorted out of the area by the NORAD aircraft. Makes you wonder if he is able to retain his pilot's license. In a statement meant to quell public concerns, NORAD said, quote, the flares, which may have been visible to the public, are employed with the highest regard for the safety of the intercepted aircraft and people on the ground. Flares burn out quickly and completely, and there's no danger to the people on the ground when dispensed. End quote. The incident occurred just before 1pm on Sunday afternoon over the golf course where President Trump was spending the weekend. Now, Trump departed New Jersey Sunday evening to return to the White House. Officials with NORAD have grown increasingly frustrated by incidents involving civilian planes, noting that 11 aircraft violated the same airspace over the Fourth of July weekend. They've also been forced to intercept a number of civilian aircraft flying over Trump's property at Mar a Lago in West Palm beach since his return to the office. Despite routinely warning civilian planes to stay clear of the area, NORAD officials urged pilots to pay closer attention to advisories issued by the faa. Yeah, that's a good idea. Saying, quote, ignorance is not a defense. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 5th August. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and of course, to listen to the show ad free. You can simply become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com It really is just simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.