December 12th, 2024: Putin’s Humiliation in Syria & Biden’s Historic Migration Surge

Summary

The President's Daily Brief Episode: December 12th, 2024
Title: Putin’s Humiliation in Syria & Biden’s Historic Migration Surge
Host: Mike Baker

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1. Putin’s Humiliation in Syria

Timestamp: [00:30]

Mike Baker opens the episode by delving into the precarious situation of Russia's military presence in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad's regime. With Assad removed from power and residing in Moscow under Putin's protection, the future of Russia's strategic military bases in the Middle East hangs in the balance.

Baker highlights the critical importance of Russia’s naval and air bases in Syria:

• Tardis Naval Base: Russia's sole access point to the Mediterranean Sea, vital for naval exercises, warship stationing, and housing nuclear submarines.
• Latakia Airbase: Serves as a primary transit hub for Russian military assets moving into African nations, supporting Russia’s efforts to counter Western influence in regions like Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.

Satellite imagery indicates that while Russian warships have been relocated approximately 10 miles offshore from Tardis, the majority of personnel and equipment remain stationed at both bases. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War warn that the potential fall of these bases would "likely disrupt Russian logistics resupply efforts at Africa core rotations, particularly weakening Russia's operations and power projection in Libya and sub Saharan Africa" ([00:45]).

Baker discusses Putin's limited options:

• Evacuation: Analysts deem a hurried retreat unlikely, as such a move would be conspicuous and detrimental to Russia's strategic interests.
• Negotiation with Rebel Forces: Reports suggest Putin is seeking to establish a deal with the newly empowered Syrian Islamist rebels to secure the bases. However, skepticism remains due to Russia's brutal past in Syria, notably the 2016 bombing campaigns in Aleppo.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledges ongoing efforts to negotiate with Syrian forces to ensure the security of Russian bases ([05:30]). Despite claims from Russian state media about securing agreements, no concrete evidence has surfaced, leaving Moscow to adopt a cautious stance amidst historical tensions.

Notable Quote:

"Moscow is likely concerned that the rebels could turn on Russian forces to exact revenge."
— Mike Baker ([04:15])

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2. Biden’s Historic Migration Surge

Timestamp: [07:28]

The podcast transitions to a significant domestic issue: the unprecedented surge in U.S. migration under President Joe Biden's administration. An exclusive report by The New York Times reveals that Biden has overseen the largest net migration in U.S. history, averaging 2.4 million people annually from 2021 to 2023, totaling over 8 million net migrants.

Key Points:

• Migration Breakdown: Approximately 60% of the influx comprises illegal immigration, significantly contributing to the historic numbers.
• Population Impact: The percentage of the U.S. population born abroad has risen from 13.6% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2023, surpassing the previous peak of 14.8% in 1890.

Baker attributes the surge to Biden's expansive and welcoming immigration policies:

• Mass Parole Program: Facilitates entry for migrants from select countries who pass rigorous background checks, granting them work permits and authorization to stay for two years.
• Mass Amnesty Initiatives: Involves the dismissal of asylum cases and deportation orders for migrants deemed non-threatening.

The administration's rollback of Trump-era immigration restrictions further exacerbated the influx. In the 2024 fiscal year alone, nearly 3 million illegal border crossings were recorded, making it the second-highest on record.

Implications:

• Strained Resources: The surge has placed immense pressure on border security and immigration systems.
• Political Repercussions: President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a "large-scale crackdown" on illegal immigration, targeting migrants with criminal backgrounds.

Baker underscores the administration's mixed messaging, noting that while Biden attributed the surge to external geopolitical unrest, the data suggests that internal policy decisions played a more significant role.

Notable Quote:

"When you actually do something about border security, you can make a difference."
— Mike Baker ([10:15])

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3. Chinese Military Drills around Taiwan

Timestamp: [14:28]

Shifting focus to East Asia, Baker reports on China's largest maritime military drills in decades near Taiwan, sparking regional tensions. Satellite imagery has captured a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese naval and aerial forces, underscoring the fragile security dynamics in the Taiwan Strait.

Highlights:

• Scale of Drills: Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported 53 PLA aircraft and 11 PLA Navy vessels operating near its territory within a single day.
• Strategic Significance: These exercises represent the most extensive military mobilization in nearly thirty years, aimed at asserting dominance and deterring Taiwanese independence movements.

Baker references comments from Taiwan's Foreign Ministry, labeling Beijing as a "troublemaker" and condemning the drills as threats to regional peace. In response, the U.S. Department of Defense reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan's defense, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stating:

"We remain steadfast in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, warning against unilateral changes to the status quo."
— Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ([12:45])

Strategic Timing:

• The timing of these drills coincides with the lead-up to President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, suggesting Beijing's intent to establish strategic deterrence and draw a red line for the incoming administration.

Notable Quote:

"They are a troublemaker."
— Mike Baker ([14:00])

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4. Devastating Wildfire in Malibu, California

Timestamp: [15:12]

In the episode's final segment, Baker addresses the Franklin Fire, a rapidly spreading wildfire in Malibu, California, that has devastated thousands of acres and forced widespread evacuations.

Key Details:

• Fire Mechanics: Originating from a 5-acre spark on Monday night, the fire expanded to 4,000 acres, consuming land at a rate of over five football fields per minute.
• Environmental Factors: Strong winds reaching 50 mph and extremely low humidity have fueled the blaze, making containment efforts challenging.

Impact:

• Structures Damaged: Seven buildings destroyed and over 20,000 residents evacuated.
• Ongoing Risk: More than 8,000 homes and businesses remain at risk, with proactive power outages implemented by utility companies to prevent further ignitions from compromised electrical lines.

Response Efforts:

• Firefighting Operations: Approximately 800 firefighters are actively working on containment, with ground crews establishing control lines and aircraft supporting the effort.
• Containment Progress: As of Wednesday, containment efforts have advanced by 7%, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the intense conditions.
• Federal Aid: Governor Gavin Newsom announced federal assistance through FEMA to bolster firefighting resources.

Looking Ahead:

• Weather Prognosis: The expiration of red flag warnings, which signal heightened fire risk, may improve conditions for containment in the coming days.
• Casualties: Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities have been reported thus far.

Notable Quote:

"It's a small but promising sign of progress."
— Mike Baker ([16:30])

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Conclusion

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief, Mike Baker provides a comprehensive overview of pressing international and domestic issues:

• Russia's Strategic Withdrawal Dilemma: The future of Russian military bases in Syria remains uncertain amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
• U.S. Immigration Surge: Biden's immigration policies have led to an unprecedented influx of migrants, posing significant social and political challenges.
• China-Taiwan Tensions: Escalating military drills near Taiwan highlight the fragile state of East Asian security and the potential for increased U.S.-China confrontations.
• California Wildfires: The Franklin Fire in Malibu exemplifies the escalating challenges posed by natural disasters exacerbated by climate conditions.

Baker emphasizes the importance of staying informed on these issues, as they have profound implications for national and global stability.

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For more insights and daily updates, tune into "The President's Daily Brief" hosted by Mike Baker on The First TV.

Transcript

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[Mike Baker]

Wake up every morning with the great taste of Blackout Coffee. Blackout Coffee is a terrific American family owned business and they're completely focused on producing the finest premium coffee. It's fresh roasted and it's shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackoutcoffee.com promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Thursday, the 12th of December. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll begin today's show with a look at the fate of Russia's military bases in Syria. They've got them. With Bashar Al Assad's regime toppled, there are obvious questions about the future of the Kremlin's foothold in the Middle east, including their critical naval and air bases. Later in the show, a new report from the New York Times reveals that under President Biden, the United States has experienced the largest net migration in its history, averaging 2.4 million people per year during his administration. Plus, we'll bring you the latest on Chinese regime military drills around Taiwan, including satellite images capturing a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels. Ah, because with everything else going on in the world, what we really needed was more tension and potential conflict. And in today's Back of the Brief, we'll take a look at the wildfire sweeping through Malibu, California, destroying homes and forcing widespread evacuations. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. As we've discussed here on the pdb, the situation in Syria has become a significant humiliation for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beyond the loss of hundreds of Russian lives during the Syrian civil war, it also represents tens of billions of dollars in sunk costs. Adding to this loss of face internationally, the Kremlin must now deal with a pressing practical issue. What to do about its military assets currently stationed in Syrian territory. As of Wednesday, four days since the fall of Putin's ally Assad, now living in Moscow under Putin's protection, Russian forces remained stranded at their Syrian bases despite rumors that they were engaged in a hasty retreat. Analysts say such an evacuation would be easy to spot and that Russia would be loath to give up their military foothold in Syria, which serves as their most strategically important outpost in the Middle East. Russia has two military bases in Syria along the country's Mediterranean coast, a massive naval base in Tardis and an airbase in the port city of Latakia. The base at Tardis is of particular importance, providing Russia with their only access point to the Mediterranean Sea. It's been used to conduct naval exercises, station warships and at times host nuclear submarines, according to a report from Business Insider. Now, due to where they are geographically situated, the bases also function as the main transit hub for military assets into African countries, where Russia has been working in recent years to undermine Western influence. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said that if the bases fall, it will, quote, likely disrupt Russian logistics resupply efforts at Africa core rotations, particularly weakening Russia's operations and power projection in Libya and sub Saharan Africa. But with the Syrian Islamist rebels in full control of the Latakia province, where both bases are situated, officials in Moscow are left with just two options tuck, tail and run or try to find a new partner in the regime that follows Assad. Reports suggest that Putin is pursuing the latter strategy, while Russian state media claimed that Moscow had secured a deal with the rebels to protect the bases as part of a broader agreement that allowed Assad and his family to flee to Moscow over the weekend. There's no evidence to support such claims, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that efforts are underway to establish contact in Syria with those capable of ensuring the security of military bases. For now, however, Moscow is taking a cautious approach, and with good reason. During the most intense days of the Syrian civil war, Russian forces engaged in brutal bombing campaigns that indiscriminately targeted civilian sites while helping Assad turn much of Aleppo to dust back in 2016. Given their history in the country, Moscow is likely concerned that the rebels could turn on Russian forces to exact revenge. Satellite images reveal that Moscow has moved their warships out of the Tardis bays for the time being, stationing them roughly 10 miles off the coast, but most personnel reportedly remain on site. Meanwhile, satellite images of Russia's airbase also show that most of the Kremlin's equipment, including their jets and helicopters, have not been moved. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia is likely trying to delay a total evacuation while conditions in Syria remain uncertain, holding out hope that they can strike a long term deal with a transitional government to maintain their regional foothold. Well, that seems like a tricky negotiation. Hey, Islamist rebels. I know we backed your archenemy for decades and helped him in his various campaigns to kill Syrians and put down rebellion, but come on, that was in the past. Let's be friends. Yeah, that could be tough. As a reminder, earlier this week, the rebels named Mohammad Al Bashir, who previously ran parts of northern Syria on behalf of the rebels, as the new caretaker prime minister. But he's only expected to serve in the position until March, when the rebels hope to establish a more permanent government. Whether or not the new Syrian government will have any interest in a relationship with Moscow, well, that remains unclear, of course. But it's worth noting that the rebels have not yet attacked the bases, despite seizing much of Iran's diplomatic and military outposts, suggesting that they may be open to striking a bargain with Russia, as bizarre as that may seem. All right, coming up next, a new report reveals record breaking US Migration under President Biden. Plus the latest on massive Chinese military drills and a tense standoff near Taiwan captured in satellite images. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the pdb. The latest report card on the Biden administration's handling of the border crisis is in now. Even legacy media outlets that have long downplayed President Biden's record on immigration are taking notice. According to an exclusive analysis by the New York Times, President Biden has presided over the largest immigration surge in US History, even surpassing the great migration boom of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Their review of data from the Congressional Budget Office showed annual net migration averaged roughly 2.4 million people from 2021 to 2023, with total net migration over Biden's four years. That is the number of people entering the country minus the number of people leaving it, expected to exceed 8 million. And that, of course, doesn't include the known gotaways, which that number could be in the millions, those who entered without encountering law enforcement. To put it in context, annual net migration has reportedly never before been close to 2 million for an extended period of time. We should stress that the New York Times analysis includes both legal and illegal immigration, though illegal immigration accounts for roughly 60% of the inflows. As a result, the percentage of the US Population that was born in a foreign country has soared under Biden to new highs from 13.6% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2023, and that number has continued to climb over the past 18 months. For context, the previous record high of 14.8% occurred all the way back in 1890. I believe that was President Biden's first term. While the Biden administration has regularly claimed the surge of illegal migrants to the US Was largely due to geopolitical unrest outside of his control, recent numbers well may tell a different story. As you may recall, President Biden decided to crack down on asylum claims at the beginning of the summer during the campaign season, facing mounting unpopularity among the American public on the issue. And the US has since seen a marked decline in illegal migrant encounters at the southern border. So it turns out that when you actually do something about border security, you can make a difference. Interesting. The data left the New York Times to conclude that the record influx under President Biden was primarily caused by the expansive and welcoming immigration policies that his administration championed over the past four years. These include his mass parole program, which allowed migrants from select countries who pass a background screening. And we've talked about how thorough those background screenings are before here on the PDB to fly directly to the US and be released with work permits and authorization to remain in the country for two years. The White House also carried out what is essentially a mass amnesty program, quietly dismissing asylum cases and deportation orders for years, claiming the migrants did not have criminal records and posed no national security threat. There are frankly, too many Biden era immigration programs to name, but taken together, they've directly resulted in the influx of millions of migrants over the past four years. The Biden administration also rolled back most of the Trump era immigration policies, further catalyzing the historic surge. Nearly 3 million illegal border crossings have been registered in the 2024 fiscal year, 3 million the second most in history behind OH, 2023 since Biden's term began in 2021. A record 10.8 million migrants have been apprehended at the border, with roughly 85% being released into the US President elect Donald Trump, of course, made immigration a centerpiece of his presidential campaign and has vowed a large scale crackdown in a program of mass deportation focused on illegal migrants with criminal records when he returns to office. In January. Okay. Turning from the US Border problem to the Taiwan Strait, where China's largest maritime drills in decades continue. Taiwan's Defense Ministry reports an alarming increase in naval and aerial operations, raising serious concerns about the island's security. Over a span of 24 hours, Taiwan's defense ministry detected 53 People's Liberation army, or PLA, aircraft, 11 PLA Navy vessels, and eight official ships operating near its territory. Among these, 23 aircraft crossed into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone, which for background begins where sovereign airspace ends, violating the median line. That's an unofficial border separating the two countries in the self governing islands north, southwest and east. Taiwanese officials confirmed active monitoring in response to the increased Chinese activity. Now since Tuesday, Taiwanese officials reported roughly 90 Chinese vessels along the first island chain, which stretches from Okinawa to Taiwan and the Philippines. This coordinated effort marks the largest deployment in nearly three decades. What are they up to? The drills, which Taiwanese officials noted required extensive preparation, reportedly took 70 days to organize and proceeded despite rough sea conditions. Satellite imagery from the European Space Agency underscores an extensive mobilization of naval and aerial forces, emphasizing the sheer magnitude of the war games. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry condemned the actions, accusing Beijing of being a, quote, troublemaker. Oh, they are. That's a good word. They're a troublemaker. And demanding an immediate halt to activities that threaten regional peace. A spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry pointed the finger back at Taiwan and its cooperation with, quote, external actors for fueling instability. It's all your fault. Taiwan. Stating, quote, harming the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is the work of Taiwan independence separatist forces. Washington expressed concern over the developments with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirming America's commitment to Taiwan's defense capabilities, stating, quote, we remain steadfast in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, warning against unilateral changes to the status quo. According to AFP News, a senior Taiwanese security official suggests that the timing of China's action is strategic. Coinciding with the lead up to President elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the official believes that Beijing aims to assert dominance within the first island chain, establish strategic deterrence, and, quote, draw a red line for the incoming administration. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, we'll have the latest on the devastating wildfire rampaging through Malibu, California. We'll be right back.

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In today's Back of the Brief A fast spreading wildfire in Malibu, California has forced thousands of residents to evacuate as it destroys homes and explodes into a 4,000acre inferno known as the Franklin Fire. It began as a small 5 acre spark on Monday night, but quickly surged, devouring land at an astonishing speed at its peak, engulfing through more than five football fields per minute. According to the New York Times, the Franklin Fire is fueled by powerful wind gusts reaching up to 50 miles per hour and extremely low humidity. The blaze has already destroyed seven structures and forced over 20,000 residents to flee their homes. Cal Fire reports more than 8,000 homes and businesses remain at risk. In a proactive move, utility companies have cut power to tens of thousands of Southern Californians to prevent additional fires sparked by damaged electrical lines. And that's precaution born from grim lessons frankly learned during the state's past wildfire seasons. Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies shows firefighting aircraft working to protect homes as ground crews work to carve out control lines. About 800 firefighters are on the scene and containment efforts have inched up to 7% as of Wednesday. It's a small but promising sign of progress. Now there's some hope on the horizon as weather conditions may soon shift. Red flag warnings signaling increased fire risk from low humidity and high winds are expected to expire, potentially easing the fight against the flames. California's Governor Gavin Newsom announced federal aid through FEMA to strengthen the firefighting effort, while local officials in Malibu confirmed that so far there have been no injuries or fatalities reported. The cause of the Franklin Fire, well, it remains under investigation and that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday, 12 December. If you have any questions or comments, please and I'm serious about this, reach out to [e-mail] and as I'm sure you've heard from friends and family to listen to the show ad free, become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com it couldn't be any simpler. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe. Stay co how to have fun anytime, anywhere.

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