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The President's Daily Brief
December 12th, 2025: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Hit Again & NATO Sounds The Alarm
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An extraordinary extraction operation at sea will tell you how a private American team pulled off a secret 15 hour mission to get Maria Corinna Machado out of Venezuela and safely on her way to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Plus, a warning from NATO's chief Mark Ruta tells member states to brace for the possibility that Russia could target the alliance within five years. And in today's Back of the Brief, a major show of force in East Asia. US Nuclear capable bombers joined Japanese fighter jets over the Sea of Japan after China and Russia conducted their own drills nearby. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We've been tracking Ukraine's campaign against Russia's so called shadow fleet, that network of tankers Moscow uses to quietly move sanctioned oil around the world. And this week there's another major development. Ukraine has crippled yet another one of those vessels. The third tanker hit in recent weeks. According to reports Ukraine's security service, that would be the sbu, launched the attack in the Black Sea using its now famous Sea Baby naval drones. If you haven't seen the video, here's what it shows. A drone racing over choppy water at high speed, its camera locked forward as it closes in on a large tanker in the distance, it quickly closes the gap and. And then the explosion as the drone hits the target. Ukrainian officials say the strike hit exactly where they intended, damaging the tanker and forcing it out of service. The vessel targeted is part of Russia's shadow fleet. Those tankers operating under obscure ownership, questionable registration, and often with their tracking systems turned off. They exist for one purpose, to move Russian oil in ways that evade Western sanctions. And that shipment network is critical. For Moscow, it's a financial lifeline. Without it, the Kremlin has a much harder time keeping oil flowing and bringing in revenue and ultimately funding its war. This latest strike follows two similar attacks over the past few weeks that we covered here, meaning Ukraine has now damaged or disabled at least three of these covert tankers. And Kyiv's strategy is becoming clearer. They're hitting the ships that keep Russia's economy running. And the effects, well, they're beginning to show. A new report from the Financial Times highlights one of the most immediate consequences. That would be insurance rates in the Black Sea have now tripled, tripled just in the last month. That's an extraordinary spike and is directly tied to Ukraine's strikes on these tankers and on Russian port infrastructure. Shipping insurers are reassessing their risk models because several of these ships are now proven targets. So premiums are soaring, especially for vessels with unclear ownership or ones traveling close to Russian ports. Some insurers are reportedly walking away from the region altogether. And when you're running a sanctions evading network like the Russians are, that already relies on unusual financing, undisclosed operators, and older vessels adding massive insurance costs makes every voyage significantly more expensive. And it doesn't stop there, because the financial pressure is now showing up in Russia's broader energy revenues. A new analysis from Goldman Sachs reported by Business Insider, finds that while Russia is still managing to export large quantities of oil, roughly the same volumes as before the latest US treasury crackdowns, the money it earns from those exports has fallen sharply. The discounts that Russia has been forced to offer, combined with soaring logistics and insurance costs, are cutting deeply into Moscow's profit margins. In simple terms, they're still selling plenty of oil, but they're making far less money doing it. Goldman's analysts point out that Russia's overall energy profits have dropped meaningfully at a time when the Kremlin desperately needs cash to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. And these hits to the shadow fleet, combined with the rising cost and risk of moving Russian oil, appear to be contributing to that financial squeeze. It's fairly straightforward. Ukraine strikes the tankers. Insurers jack up prices. Shippers hesitate or demand higher premiums. Russia must offer steeper discounts to keep the oil flowing. And little by little, the Kremlin's wartime revenues shrink. This is asymmetric warfare at sea, targeting the economic arteries instead of the warships. And it's something that will continue tracking. Coming up next, how a private American team pulled off a secret 15 hour sea rescue of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. And why NATO's chief is warning allies that Russia could target the alliance within five years. I'll be right back. 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Welcome back to the pdb, a new twist in the ongoing saga surrounding Venezuela. Almost 16 hours under the COVID of rough nighttime seas, a private American rescue team extracted Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corinna Machado from the country to reunite her with family and to collect her Nobel Peace Prize in Norway. The man leading the team was Brian Stern, a U.S. special Forces veteran and the head of the Gray Bull Rescue Foundation. As he tells it, the waves were high enough to throw off radar. Useful for staying hidden, of course, but punishing for everyone on board. He told CBS News no one was enjoying that ride, especially Maria. The water may have been ideal for us, but it was also certainly not what you would want to be on Machado's Team confirmed to CBS News that the mission began Tuesday. After she set foot in Norway yesterday, Stern said that it became one of the toughest missions he's ever run, notable given that Gray Bull has orchestrated hundreds over the years and the timing made everything even riskier. As we've discussed here on the pdb, Machado had been hiding for nearly a year, trying to stay ahead of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro's regime, which has brutally cracked down, of course, on protesters advocating for his ouster. The optics were even more challenging as his regime has taken on an especially defensive posture as the US Steps up its military presence offshore. Stern said, quote, she has a very large target on her back. He pointed to her visibility across Venezuela, noting billboards with her face all over the country and supporters holding demonstrations in her name. Her profile, he said, made the operation uniquely dangerous. Grable took charge of both the land and maritime phases, though Stern wouldn't go into detail about the ground portion, saying it would put people still in Venezuela at risk. Once Machado was safely on the move, the team got her to the coastline and onto a boat bound for a rendezvous point somewhere in the Caribbean. That's where Stern met her for what turned into the riskiest portion of the operation, an hours long run on dark seas with almost no visibility, ending at the location where she would later board a flight to Oslo. By then, everyone, of course, was soaked, cold and exhausted. As for the makeup of the team involved in the mission, it consisted of about reportedly two dozen people with many others supporting behind the scenes through translation and logistics, some without even realizing that they were part of it. The plan itself reportedly came together in just four days. Stern also made a point of saying the mission was funded entirely by private donors. He said, quote, the U.S. government did not contribute a single penny to the operation, though he acknowledged, quote, unofficial collaboration with the military to avoid any accidental encounters at sea. As for rumors circulating about the mission, Stern pushed back that he was a private extraction specialist supposedly hired by the Trump administration who met Machado in Curacao. Now, I want to point out that the island had become the focus of speculation since the mission's success, mainly because it's a common transit point for Venezuelan dissidents and hosts US Security oper operations, making it a believable Caribbean waypoint for an escape. But Stern said none of it was true. He said, quote, I've never been hired by Trump. I met up with Machado somewhere else. And when it came to Machado arriving in Norway to accept her Nobel Peace Prize, well, she was a bit Too late to attend the ceremony, but her daughter accepted the award on her behalf. Despite all this effort, Machado says she wants to return to Venezuela to continue opposition efforts on the ground. Stern didn't sugarcoat his response of admiration for her, saying, they call her the Iron lady for a reason. I told her, don't go back, end quote. So Machado's potential return to Venezuela promises to be anything but smooth sailing. Okay, shifting gears, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered what sounded less like a policy update and more like an alarm warning allies that Russia could be ready to strike NATO territory within five years. Ruta stressed that the alliance is nowhere near the level of readiness that Moscow's trajectory now demands. Speaking in Berlin this week, Ruta didn't sugarcoat his message. He made clear to those gathered and effectively to the entire alliance, that Europe is already in the danger zone. The Secretary General said, quote, we are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way, arguing that the alliance must prepare for a scale of conflict that has not been seen since the eras their grandparents lived through. In his view, Russia's accelerated war economy isn't an abstract warning. It's a countdown. And that countdown is why Rutte keeps drilling down on urgency. Yes, he welcomes the pledge by NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, he said, but he admits frustration with that pace and timeline. Rutte said the alliance simply doesn't have that kind of time and pushed for a full shift to, quote, wartime mindset. Hmm. He warned that too many capitals are slipping into quiet complacency. Ruta said, quote, this is not the time for self congratulation. Too many believe that time is on our side. It is not the time for action. Is now, end quote. In an effort to further drive home why he believes Europe cannot afford delay, Ruta pointed to the staggering casualties that Russia has already suffered. He claimed more than 1 million Russian troops have been killed since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a figure we've previously discussed here on the pd, which is a cost that, Ruta said, just shows how far Russian President Putin is willing to go to achieve his war aims. The Secretary General said, quote, putin is paying for his pride with the blood of his own people. And if he's prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us now? I want to point out that Ruta's warning didn't stop at Moscow's doorstep. He set his sights on China as well, saying outright that Russia's war machine would collapse. Without Beijing's support, Ruta said, China is Russia's lifeline. Without China's support, Russia could not continue to wage this war. Pointing to the roughly 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones and weapons systems that originate in China. Well, I can't spot the lie in Ruta's comments regarding China. Taken together, Ruta's message is unmistakable. NATO's window to prepare for war, he says, is shrinking. Russia's threat trajectory is rising. And the cost of underestimating Moscow now would be far greater than anything Europe has faced in generations. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Tokyo reveals that US bombers flew alongside Japanese jets in a coordinated show of strength following joint China, Russia military exercises in the same region. I'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, BDB listeners know that I am constantly on the road. I'm always traveling it seems. I know, I know, you probably noticed by all the different hotel room backdrops on the pdb. 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In today's Back of the Brief, there's a new round of power projection happening in East Asia, this time from Washington and Tokyo. In a major show of force, Japan's Defense ministry confirmed that two US nuclear capable B52 strategic bombers flew a coordinated mission over the Sea of Japan on Wednesday, joined by a mix of Japanese F35 and F15 fighter jets. The timing wasn't incidental, as the exercise came just one day after China and Russia carried out their own high profile joint bomber patrols over the East China Sea and Western Pacific. That's according to a report from Reuters. Japanese officials made little attempt to downplay the symbolism. The drill, they said, was designed to signal that the U.S. japan alliance remains prepared to respond to, to quote, any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force. Now, that's a phrase that Tokyo normally reserves for Beijing's activities around Taiwan. Coming from Japan's Defense Ministry, typically cautious in its public messaging, the language was unusually pointed. China has been steadily escalating their rhetoric and military activity in the region over the past month, with, of course, assistance from Russia. And Tokyo's patience appears to have worn thin. As I mentioned, Chinese and Russian strategic bombers conducted coordinated patrols over the East China Sea and Western Pacific on Tuesday, breaching air defense identification zones and prompting both Japan and South Korea to scramble jets. And only three days before the drill, Japan publicly confirmed that Chinese aircraft involved in a separate military exercise had locked their fire control radar onto Japanese fighter jets, one of the more provocative acts that militaries can commit. Short of pulling the trigger, Tokyo lodged a formal protest on Sunday, saying the radar incident was completely unacceptable and risked triggering a serious incident. The US Also weighed in, saying the Chinese action was not conducive to regional peace and stability. Now there's a diplomatic sentence for you. But unsurprisingly, China denied the accusations. Well, that is unsurprising. And instead accused Japan of endangering its air operations. As we reported earlier this week, a Chinese military linked account has since put out a propaganda video showing nuclear missiles raining down on Japan alongside a message threatening to, quote, bury this demon beneath the Pacific forever. End quote. Not exactly subtle messaging. Taken together, the sequence of events in Saturday suggests China is intent on inflaming regional tensions, particularly as they attempt to reassert their claim over Taiwan. China's current spat with Tokyo, after all, ignited in November after Japan's new prime minister bluntly rebukes China's behavior in the region and reaffirmed their support for Taiwan. Ever since, China has been ratcheting up their military activity while attempting to frame Tokyo as a resurgent imperial threat. Against that backdrop, Wednesday's B52 deployment served a dual purpose for the US reassuring regional allies of America's support and reminding adversaries that Washington can still surge strategic assets into the Western Pacific on short notice. For Japan, Wednesday's drill reinforced a broader shift in its defense posture, one that leans more openly into deterrence and closer coordination with U.S. forces. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 12th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and remember, if you'd like an ad free PDB experience, just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with a PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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