The President's Daily Brief

Host: Mike Baker
Episode: December 16th, 2025: New Year’s Eve Terror Plot Foiled in the U.S. & Ukraine’s Underwater Drone Strike
Date: December 16, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker, former CIA operations officer, dissects several major security and geopolitical events:

• The foiling of a New Year's Eve terror plot in Southern California
• Ukraine’s claimed underwater drone strike on a Russian submarine
• Israel’s controversial strike on a Hamas commander and ensuing tensions over ceasefire violations
• Developments in the Brown University shooting investigation

The episode’s tone mixes detailed intelligence analysis, sharp wit, and skepticism toward political statements from all sides.

1. New Year's Eve Terror Plot Foiled in California

[02:00 – 09:02]

Key Discussion Points

• Plot Details:

  • Federal authorities disrupted a coordinated bombing plot intended for midnight on New Year’s Eve in Southern California.
  • Four suspects in custody, charged with conspiracy and possession of unregistered destructive devices.
  • Planned targets: large logistics/distribution centers in Los Angeles and Orange counties; described as “Amazon-type” 24-hour hubs close to neighborhoods and transport lines.
  • The attacks aimed to trigger mass casualties and disruption during one of the year’s most crowded nights.

• Suspects & Ideology:

  • The group: “Order of the Black Lotus,” a splinter from the far-left “Turtle Island Liberation Front.”
  • Ideology rooted in decolonization and anti-capitalist beliefs; views the U.S. as a colonizer with no legitimate government.
  • Social media: posted messages rejecting peaceful protest, dismissing the effectiveness of voting, and advocating violence as justified against “fascist colonizers.”

• Operational Planning:

  • Suspects had advanced beyond rhetoric: built and tested explosives, scouted targets, and timed attacks to maximize chaos.
  • Possible plan for attacks on ICE agents/vehicles as a follow-up—suggesting intent for ongoing violence.

• Law Enforcement Response:

  • FBI intervened before devices could be used.
  • No evidence to date of connection with foreign terrorist organizations—fits pattern of “homegrown” domestic extremism, self-radicalized online.

Notable Quotes & Commentary

• “This wasn't an aspirational scheme. Investigators say the suspects had moved beyond rhetoric and into operational planning.” – Mike Baker [03:09]
• On the group names:
  “Hey, look, I...don't make up these moronic names. I just report on them.” [04:34]
• “I can smell the patchouli and the weed from here.” [06:34]
• “The case fits a broader pattern...Small, ideologically driven cells, radicalized online, operating without a centralized hierarchy, blending political grievance with revolutionary language and convincing themselves that violence is not only justified but necessary.” [07:38]

2. Ukraine’s Underwater Drone Strike on Russian Submarine

[09:34 – 14:40]

Key Discussion Points

• Claimed Attack:

  • Ukraine’s Security Service reports using an underwater drone to strike a Russian Kilo-class submarine docked at Novorossiysk.
  • Released video shows a significant explosion underwater, consistent with drone delivery (not independently verified yet).

• Military Significance:

  • Kilo-class “Varshavyanka” submarines: vital to Russia’s Black Sea fleet, used for launching missile strikes.
  • Even damaging one would be a “meaningful blow” to Russian operational capacity—each sub valued at ~$400 million.

• Strategic Impact:

  • Attack shows Ukraine’s expanding use of unmanned systems below water, not just in air/surface domains.
  • Port previously considered a “safe sanctuary;” this strike disrupts Russia’s assumptions about naval security.
  • Raises cost and complexity for Russia to defend high-value assets, with broad implications for naval strategy worldwide.

• Psychological/Operational Ramifications:

  • Even absent confirmation of complete destruction, the incident forces Russian commanders to rethink port safety and resource allocation.
  • Occurs amid renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war—battlefield shocks impact negotiations and leverage.

Notable Quotes & Commentary

• “Traditional defenses, nets, patrols, sonar, physical distance from the front lines may no longer provide the protection they once did against small, hard to detect underwater drones.” [12:56]
• “Even without independent confirmation...the psychological and operational impact is already real.” [13:42]
• “The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly dangerous place for Russian warships.” [14:35]

3. Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and the Death of a Senior Hamas Commander

[14:40 – 19:35]

Key Discussion Points

• Incident Overview:

  • Israel killed Rayad Saad, a senior Hamas commander overseeing “military manufacturing,” in an airstrike.
  • White House (Trump administration) criticized Israel for breaching the ceasefire; Israel insisted action was retaliatory, not preemptive.

• Context of Ceasefire:

  • Ceasefire brokered by the Trump administration; both sides accuse each other of violations.
  • Israel frames its actions as responses to Hamas attacks and smuggling, noting Hamas’s refusal to disarm—a breach in itself.

• Political Tensions:

  • U.S. (Trump admin.) delivered a private warning to Netanyahu, expressing growing frustration at Israel’s conduct and process delays.
  • Israeli officials countered that U.S. frustration is partly due to Arab-state perception, not solely the strike’s substance.

• Prospects for Peace:

  • Second phase of ceasefire (disarmament, transition to new governing body in Gaza, IDF withdrawal) remains stalled.
  • U.S. and Israel at odds over timing, with both holding the other responsible for hampering progress.

Notable Quotes & Commentary

• “If you can’t believe an Iranian backed terror group, well, who can you believe?” [17:41]
• “...Perhaps the White House should remind Hamas about those conditions put in place, by the way, by the White House negotiators.” [18:41]
• On the U.S. warning to Israel:
  “If you want to ruin your reputation and show that you don't abide by agreements, be our guest. But we won't allow you to ruin President Trump's reputation. Sorry, I couldn't do that with a straight face.” [19:12]

4. Back of the Brief: Brown University Shooting Investigation

[19:35 – 22:44]

Key Discussion Points

• Case Update:

  • Police released initially detained “person of interest” after evidence pointed elsewhere.
  • Shooting details: 2 killed (students from Uzbekistan and Alabama), 9 wounded; attack occurred during final exams.

• Manhunt & Investigation:

  • New video footage yielded a new person of interest: male, ~5'8", stocky build, may have worn a camo mask.
  • FBI offers $50,000 reward for info; suspect still at large.
  • Access issues: outer building doors open, but test rooms required badge access.

• Campus Impact:

  • Brown canceled remaining in-person classes and final exams for the semester.
  • Student body described as grieving, fearful, and exhausted.

Notable Quotes & Commentary

• “Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Narona said Sunday very bluntly, 'We have a murderer out there, frankly.'” [21:38]
• “The student body is grieving, the uncertainty is fearful and exhausting and the suspect is still at large.” [22:07]

Memorable Moments & General Tone

• Baker repeatedly uses dry humor, derision toward terrorists’ self-styled names, and skepticism toward both American and foreign political leaders.
• Frequent direct appeal to listeners’ intelligence and common sense:
  • “Are you still following me?” [05:20]
  • “Someone should find that senior administration official and ask them if they've always been moronic or if it's a relatively new affliction.” [19:27]

Notable Timestamps (mm:ss)

• Opening and summary of terror plot: 02:00–03:30
• Suspect ideology and rhetoric: 04:34–07:00
• Law enforcement perspective and group profile: 07:38–09:02
• Ukraine drone strike details: 09:34–14:40
• Israel/Hamas ceasefire breakdown: 14:40–19:35
• Brown University shooting investigation: 19:35–22:44

This summary distills the episode’s key news, perspective, and memorable asides while replicating Mike Baker’s directness and blend of dry wit with intelligence analysis.