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The President's Daily Brief
December 18th, 2024: Turkey Prepares To Invade Syria & Gaze Ceasefire On The Horizon
00:20:32
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- [00:01]
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Mike Baker
Foreign.
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Advertiser 2
18 December welcome to the President's Daily Briefs. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Now, if it sounds like there's a groovy soundtrack in the background, well, there is. Sometimes when you're on the road trying to find a quiet place to record the PDB for you, well, it can be a little difficult. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start the show with Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border. Ankara's moves are raising alarms, of course, of a potential large scale incursion into northern Syria, one that could put Turkish forces on a collision course with U S backed Syrian Kurdish fighters. Later in the show, we'll cover promising developments in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas as Prime Minister Netanyahu heads to Cairo for what's being called the final stage of negotiations. Plus, the US treasury is hitting North Korea and Russia with new sanctions targeting Pyongyang's finances and its military support for Moscow. And in today's Back in the brief, a potential political earthquake north of the border. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be on the verge of resignation. But first, today's PDB Spotlight with a little background music, we'll begin in Syria, where it appears the lull in widespread violence since the rebel coalition overthrew former strongman Assad may be short lived. A military buildup by Turkey and its militia allies along their southern border with Syria is raising fears in Washington that a new theater of fighting could soon break out in the country. Specifically, senior U.S. officials warned Tuesday that Turkey may be preparing to mount a large scale incursion into territory held by American backed Syrian Kurds, longtime enemies, of course, of leaders in Ankara. That's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. For some background, Turkey, while counted as a US ally, has long fought Kurdish separatists along their border who seek to establish an independent country. The Kurds, who have proven instrumental in helping the US fight isis, control much of Syria's northeast under an autonomous civil administration, though Turkey claims they're linked with the pkk, that's a Kurdish terrorist organization. Since Assad's ouster last weekend, Turkey has renewed a limited airstrike campaign against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, collectively known as the Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has vowed to do everything in their power to prevent them from expanding their territory and are already backing Syrian rebels opposing the Kurds in the region. Now it seems Ankara may have an eye on eliminating this perceived threat altogether, with one U.S. official warning that a cross border operation appears imminent. Turkey's preparations certainly have the Kurds feeling, well, let's use the word anxious about their future. An official in the Syrian Kurds civilian administration appealed to President Elect Trump on Monday to intervene, urging him to speak with Turkish President Erdogan to prevent a violent clash. The official wrote to Trump that Turkey's chief goal was to establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory. The Kurdish official warned an invasion by Turkey would displace upwards of 200,000 civilians, including vulnerable Christian communities. For their part, Turkey has been tight lipped about their large scale military buildup. Their fighting force is currently concentrated on the edge of Syria's northern border, near the Kurdish city of Kobani. There was briefly some hope that diplomacy would win the day. The Biden administration dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Turkey last week to discuss Syria's future with Erdogan and seek assurances that his government would not inflame the already well inflamed situation. But ceasefire discussions between Syrian Kurds and Turkish backed rebels in Kobani broke down on Monday and there's little hope that they'll be revived anytime soon. So where does Syria's rebel backed transitional government stand on all this? While the leading militant rebel group HTS has not officially commented, Turkish officials claimed over the weekend that the rebels agree that Turkish military forces and their civil administration must be dismantled. Turkey's Defense minister said that while no formal agreement has been reached yet with the transitional government, both the new administration in Syria and we want this. We should know, however, that the Islamist rebel coalition, which has been attempting to distance itself from its past ties with terror groups, has repeatedly promised not to persecute religious and ethnic minorities. At the same time, Turkey has reportedly demanded that the US Review its support for the Kurdish militia, claiming ISIS does not pose the same threat that it once did. The Pentagon, however, is of course, wary about leaving any space in Syria for ISIS militants to reconstitute. Yeah, that makes sense. Both the US And Turkey will likely remain at an impasse on this issue until Trump returns to office in January. As you may recall, Trump partially withdrew U.S. troops from Northeast Syria during his first term, a moment that Turkey seized on to invade parts of Kurdish territory. Trump subsequently helped negotiate a ceasefire, though it resulted in the Kurds ceding several miles of border territory to Turkey. Notably, Trump claimed on Monday that Turkey quietly backed HTS and orchestrated the rebel revolt against Assad to further their regional interests, calling it a, quote, unfriendly takeover. Though he did not offer proofs regarding the threat of renewed fighting. Trump said Monday that while no one can predict what the final outcome will be, he gets along great with Erdogan, who he praised as, quote, a very smart guy. Well, I'm glad that that's the case, and I'm sure that Erdogan will be happy to hear that. Alright, coming up next, promising signs and Gaza ceasefire talks as Netanyahu heads to Cairo, and the US Treasury Department targets North Korea and Russia with new sanctions. I'll have those stories when we come back.
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Mike Baker
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Advertiser 2
Welcome back to the pdd. For months now we've been tracking reports of progress toward a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. And if you've been paying attention, you know the cycle. Hope rises, only to be dashed as talks stall, conditions shift, and then talks completely break down. But now there's well reason to believe we could be closer to a breakthrough than we've been since the conflict was started by hamas back on the 7th of October of last year. According to a new report from Reuters, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading to Cairo for what's being described as the final stage of negotiations. These talks aim to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages still being held by Hamas. That move alone. Netanyahu personally traveling to Cairo, signals that this isn't just another round of preliminary discussions. Those same sources say a deal could be signed in the coming days. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reinforced this sense of momentum on Monday, stating that Israeli negotiators have not been this close to an agreement since the temporary ceasefire back in November of last year. Optimism isn't only coming from the Israeli side. A senior Palestinian official involved in these indirect negotiations told the BBC that the talks have reached a decisive and final phase. Meanwhile, Hamas added its own perspective in a statement released on Tuesday. They said, quote, hamas affirms that in light of the serious and positive discussions taking place today in Doha under the auspices of our Qatari and Egyptian brothers, reaching an agreement for a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange is possible if the occupation ceases to impose new conditions. So what's on the table? Well, here's what we know. The plan is set to unfold in three phases. Phase one would involve the release of women and civilian hostages over the course of 45 days, paired with an Israeli military withdrawal from key city centers, the coastal road and strategic border zones near Egypt. The second phase would see the release of remaining hostages and the further withdrawal of Israeli troops. And finally, the third phase would formally bring an end to the war. Now, to put this into perspective, there are 96 crossages still believed to be held in Gaza. Israel estimates that 62 of them are still alive this time. US officials are also weighing in cautiously. On Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby acknowledged the progress, saying in an interview with Fox News, we believe and the Israelis have said this, that we're getting closer. And no doubt about it, we believe that. But we also are cautious in our optimism. So it does appear that there is potential here. Netanyahu is in Cairo. Hamas is signaling openness, and cautious optimism is coming from both sides of the table and key international players. Okay. Shifting focus to the U.S. washington announced a new round of sanctions targeting North Korean and Russian entities accused of fueling Pyongyang's military support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The sanctions revealed by the Treasury Department on Monday zeroed in on North Korean banks, senior military officials, and Russian oil shipping companies, violating United States sanctions. The State Department said it had sufficient evidence to justify the designation of 11 individuals and eight entities for their role in facilitating North Korea's direct military assistance to Russia. In a joint statement issued by the US and 10 nations, including South Korea, Britain, Japan, and the European Union, Pyongyang's growing ties with Moscow were sharply condemned. Well, that should do it. The statement called North Korea's support for Russia's invasion a dangerous expansion of the conflict and a flagrant violation of UN sanctions, warning of its destabilizing effects on both European and Indo Pacific security. You know, it is charming how the international community irregularly acts as if North Korea cares about UN sanctions. The signatories restated their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and demanded that North Korea withdraw all assistance, including the deployment of troops. Well, good. Again, that should do it. A harshly written memo. I'm sure Kim Jong Un is taking it under advisement. Concerns were also raised over Russia's potential contributions to North Korea's illicit weapons programs, including ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, which pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula. Diplomatic and economic cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has visibly deepened, of course, in recent months. Their growing partnership culminated in a mutual defense pact signed during Russian President Putin's high profile visit to North Korea in June. The military ties have drawn global condemnation, particularly following reports that North Korea has dispatched at least 10,000 troops to Russia's war effort. As we covered on the PDB on Tuesday, Ukraine's military intelligence agency claimed for the first time that at least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or injured in Russia's Kursk border region, signifying Pyongyang's forces are now on the frontlines. Ukrainian President Zelensky responded bluntly, vowing that Ukraine would continue to defend itself, stating including against these North Koreans. Zelenskyy has previously warned that the North Korean contingent couldn't balloon to as many as 100,000 soldiers. The newly imposed sanctions freeze US based assets of the targeted individuals and entities, block their access to the American financial system, and bar transactions with US Individuals or businesses. Among the notable targets are Russian oil companies accused of covertly shipping oil and gas to North Korea, circumventing UN Restrictions. According to the Treasury Department, these companies began deliveries in 2022. Analysts, citing satellite imagery published in November by the BBC and British based Open Source center, estimate that North Korea has received over 1 million barrels of Russian oil since March, a figure enabled by over 40 tanker drips an eastern Russian port. Treasury officials said the shipments violate UN resolutions that cap Pyongyang's annual oil imports at 500,000 barrels. As tensions mount, the international community is closely monitoring the ongoing romance between Moscow and Pyongyang. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has made clear his intentions to strengthen economic and technological cooperation with Russia. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces mounting pressure to resign as his party reacts to the looming threat of tariffs from President elect Trump. I'll be right back.
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Mike Baker
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Advertiser 2
In today's back the brief Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering stepping down after the resignation of his Finance Minister Cristia Freeland, leaving his leadership weakened at a time when Canada stares down the barrel of a worsening economic crisis. Freeland's exit on Monday came at a critical moment with President Elect Trump threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Now such a move would deliver a punishing blow to Canada's economy, which is already straining under inflationary pressures, immigration and a housing shortage, Trudeau's government, battered by internal divisions and external economic threats, is facing mounting pressure to chart a clear path forward. Freeland had been preparing to unveil a much anticipated economic roadmap, but walked away instead citing irreconcilable differences over fiscal priorities and Trudeau's leadership style. Her resignation letter laid bare the internal discord, accusing Trudeau's administration of prioritizing costly political gimmicks over the grave challenge of preparing for a potential trade war with the incoming US Administration. Freeland's rebuke struck a particularly sharp note when she called for fiscal restraint, implicitly criticizing Trudeau's spending policies behind closed doors. Tensions reportedly escalated after Trudeau asked her to accept a demotion in the Cabinet. Yeah, that always goes well. A proposal that seemed to signal deeper fissures within the Liberal Party. Trudeau himself admitted it was one of his party's toughest days. His tone, one part weary and one part defiant, did little, frankly, to dispel the impression that his government is on the ropes. According to CTV News, Trudeau told his Cabinet he's mulling two resignation or prologation, which is a parliamentary maneuver that would effectively hit pause on the government's work, buying him some time. Neither, however, projects the image of a leader in control. Of course, the fallout has been swift. Senior voices in his own party, frustrated by Freeland's departure and the worsening economic outlook, are now quietly urging Trudeau to simply step aside ahead of the next election, which is due before October 2025. While a no confidence vote does not appear imminent, the political damage caused by Freeland's resignation has led to speculation that Trudeau's near 10 year stint as Prime Minister may be coming to an end. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday, 18 December, just seven more shopping days till Christmas. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and in the event you're hoping Santa will bring you an ad free PDB experience, well, save him the trouble. You can do it yourself. Simply become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com It's that simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin, and possibly without that groovy background soundtrack. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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Mike Baker
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