Podcast Episode Summary
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode: December 23, 2025

Overview

In this December 23rd, 2025 episode, Mike Baker guides listeners through major global security developments: China’s accelerated nuclear missile deployment, the ongoing conflict and diplomatic stalemate in Ukraine, and renewed border hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia. With a blend of wry cynicism and intelligence expertise, Baker emphasizes the implications of these events for US interests and global stability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China's Accelerated Nuclear Buildup

[01:16 – 12:20]

• New Pentagon Intelligence:

  • A draft Defense Department report reveals China has operationally loaded over 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in newly built silo fields, marking a dramatic escalation in its nuclear posture.
    • “Building silos is one thing. Loading them with solid fueled ICBM's is another entirely.” (Mike Baker, 03:22)
  • The missiles, likely DF-31 models, are solid-fueled and deployed near the Mongolian border, vastly boosting China’s readiness and strategic flexibility.
    • “Solid fueled missiles can be launched far more quickly than older liquid fueled systems, reducing warning time and increasing survivability.” (03:58)

• Arms Control Stalemate:

  • China rejects arms control discussions, even as President Trump expresses interest in “denuclearization discussions with both China and Russia.”
    • “Beijing shows no appetite for arms control talks, even as President Trump has said he wants to pursue denuclearization discussions…” (05:00)
  • The New START treaty, the last US-Russia nuclear arms agreement, is expiring within two months, leaving the world’s top three nuclear powers without formal limitations or oversight.
    • “Once it does, there will be no formal limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons among the world's three largest nuclear powers.” (05:37)

• Implications for Taiwan:

  • The report predicts China aims to be capable of “fighting and winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027,” with options for mass missile strikes and long-range disruptions aimed at US forces.
    • “The nuclear buildup in that context begins to look less like an abstract strategic hedge and more like a stabilizing backstop for conventional aggression…” (08:52)

• Internal Contradictions:

  • Xi Jinping’s military anti-corruption purges may temporarily hinder readiness but could ultimately make the PLA more cohesive and controlled.

• International Response & Perspective:

  • China disputes the entire assessment, calling it Western smears. The US Department of Defense refrains from commenting, but experts warn, “more nuclear weapons and less diplomacy does not make anyone safer.” (Attributed by Baker, 10:41)

2. Ukraine's Escalating Strikes and Stalled Diplomacy

[14:44 – 27:56]

• Increased Ukrainian Attacks:

  • Ukraine continues high-profile strikes deep within Russian territory – targeting energy infrastructure, ammunition depots, aircraft, and naval facilities.
    • “Kyiv has increasingly taken to fight deep into Russia…signaling that even areas Moscow once treated as secure are now within striking distance.” (15:45)
  • Recent operations include sabotage of Russian fighter jets in western Russia and a confirmed damaging underwater drone attack on a Russian Kilo-class submarine at Novorossiysk Naval Base.
    • “The assessment concludes that the submarine likely suffered significant damage, leaving it unable to deploy or sail under its own power.” (20:13)

• Strategic Impact:

  • These attacks challenge the notion that Russia has secure rear areas, putting pressure on Russian military logistics and morale.
  • The confirmed damage to naval assets especially hampers Russia’s ability to launch missile strikes against Ukraine.

• Diplomatic Deadlock:

  • US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials meet in Miami for three days of shuttle-style diplomacy, but without direct Kyiv-Moscow engagement and no meaningful progress.
    • “Even as the meetings ended without any concrete movement toward a ceasefire.” (24:05)
  • US envoy Steve Witkoff strikes an optimistic tone, calling the Russian position “fully committed to achieving peace,” which Baker skewers as fantasy.
    • “It's unclear if Witkoff was medicated when he made these bizarre statements.” (25:25)
  • Russian officials promptly contradict the positive framing, with Kremlin aide Ushakov calling proposals “rather unconstructive.”
    • “The remark amounted to a blunt statement from the Kremlin itself, that the talks failed to produce meaningful progress toward ending the war.” (26:07)

• Ukrainian Bottom Line:

  • President Zelenskyy emphasizes unresolved critical issues: territorial sovereignty, control of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, reconstruction funding, and security guarantees.
    • “The most difficult issues were and remain Ukrainian territories…” (26:47)

• Realism from US Officials:

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio admits, “we have a ways to go,” a more grounded view than Trump’s claim that peace is nearing.
    • “Now, that's a far more measured assessment than even President Trump's most recent claim that the parties are closer now than we have ever been.” (27:12)

• Host Analysis:

  • Baker is sharply critical: “Hope is not a national security strategy. And appeasement of an invading army has never, ever resulted in long term peace and stability.” (27:37)
  • Urges the US to recognize Putin “is actually the problem,” not a peacemaker.

3. Cambodia–Thailand Border Conflict: A Ceasefire at Risk

[30:35 – 39:30]

• Background:

  • Three weeks of renewed, intense fighting along the disputed 500-mile border; over 80 killed since December 8th.

• Diplomatic Efforts:

  • Emergency talks in Kuala Lumpur lead to both nations agreeing to resume bilateral military discussions (General Border Committee meeting, Dec. 24).
    • “Monday's meeting yielded a narrow but notable step forward…” (32:25)
  • Until then, ASEAN diplomats call for “maximum restraint.”

• International Mediation:

  • Malaysia and the US, including President Trump, reach out but both sides insist on local solutions; China dispatches a special envoy, but is kept at arm’s length.
  • Previous ceasefire (brokered by Trump in July) has disintegrated—“Despite renewed diplomatic outreach…fighting has continued unabated.” (35:40)

• Statements of Caution:

  • Thailand’s foreign minister: “A ceasefire cannot just be declared. It needs a discussion…” (37:35)
  • Malaysia’s foreign minister highlights the need for building trust and dialogue:
    • “Our goal goes beyond de-escalating the tension. We must intensify trust building among the conflicting parties and provide the horizons for dialogue despite the prevailing differences.” (38:40)

• Current Reality:

  • Despite talks, fighting and military buildups continue on both sides of the border.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On China's Nuclear Shift:

  • “This shifts China’s nuclear force from potential to ready.” (Mike Baker, 04:20)
  • “Happy holidays. No caps, no inspections, no guardrails.” (Mike Baker, 05:41)

• On Ukraine Diplomacy:

  • “Hope is not a national security strategy. And appeasement of an invading army has never, ever resulted in long term peace and stability.” (Mike Baker, 27:37)

• On Official Optimism:

  • “It's unclear if Witkoff was medicated when he made these bizarre statements.” (25:25)

• On Southeast Asian Diplomacy:

  • “A ceasefire cannot just be declared. It needs a discussion…” —Thailand’s Foreign Minister (37:35)
  • “We must intensify trust building among the conflicting parties and provide the horizons for dialogue despite the prevailing differences.” —Malaysia’s Foreign Minister (38:40)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• China’s Nuclear Buildup: 01:16–12:20
• Ukraine’s Cross-Border Attacks & Sabotage: 14:44–22:00
• Ukraine-Russia-US Diplomacy: 22:00–27:56
• Cambodia–Thailand Border Conflict: 30:35–39:30

Host’s Closing:
Mike Baker wraps up with the usual call for vigilance and level-headedness in international affairs—and a characteristic parting note: “Hope and optimism, very nice, right?…But hope is not a national security strategy.” (27:37)

For questions or comments, contact:
bdb@hefirsttv.com

Summary Prepared for:
Listeners seeking insight into current global security threats and the diplomatic obstacles facing US policymakers.