December 26th, 2024: Top 6 Global Stories of 2024: A Countdown with Mike Baker

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: December 26th, 2024 – Top 6 Global Stories of 2024

Hosted by Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer

On this special year-end episode of The President's Daily Brief, Mike Baker delves into the six most pivotal global events of 2024 that have significantly influenced international relations, national security, and geopolitical dynamics. Below is a comprehensive summary of the discussions, complete with notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

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1. A Terrible Year for Tehran

Timestamp: [00:35]

Mike Baker opens the briefing by examining the dramatic collapse of the Assad government in Syria, marking the end of 50 years of Assad family rule. This seismic shift has profound implications for Tehran and the broader Middle East.

• Impact on Iran: The Assad regime was central to Iran's "axis of resistance," facilitating the flow of arms and support to allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Assad ousted, Iran's regional strategy faces severe setbacks.

• Regional Power Struggle: The power vacuum in Syria has turned the country into a "geopolitical chessboard," with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran vying for influence. Additionally, Russia, Assad’s former ally, is maneuvering to protect its interests amidst this turmoil.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Can Syria stabilize and establish a lasting government?
  • Will Iran attempt to destabilize Syria further to regain its influence?
  • Mike Baker questions: "Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence?" ([00:35])

2. Direct Conflict Between Iran and Israel

Timestamp: [02:45]

In an unprecedented escalation, Iran and Israel moved beyond proxy wars to engage in direct missile exchanges, fundamentally altering their long-standing antagonistic relationship.

• Escalation Details:

  • April Incident: An Israeli airstrike targeted Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC members, prompting Iran to retaliate with ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli territory.
  • October Escalation: Israel assassinated high-ranking Iranian and Hezbollah leaders, leading to further missile barrages from Iran.

• Consequences:

  • Exposure of Iran's "advancing missile capabilities" and vulnerabilities.
  • Heightened risk of a broader regional war.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker poses: "Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents, or are we entering a new, more dangerous phase of open Iran-Israel hostilities?" ([02:45])

3. The War in Ukraine and North Korea’s Involvement

Timestamp: [07:07]

The protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of resolution as it enters its fourth year. A surprising development this year has been North Korea's direct involvement, sending approximately 10,000 troops to support Russian forces.

• North Korea's Role:

  • Strategic Motives: For Russia, it's a means to bolster manpower. For North Korea, it's an opportunity to "flex their military muscles" and deepen ties with Moscow.

• Impact on Europe and the US:

  • Increased economic strain due to rising energy prices and inflation.
  • Heightened debate within NATO and the US regarding continued support for Ukraine.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Potential for a "diplomatic solution," especially with the newly elected President Donald Trump prioritizing deal-making.
  • Uncertainty surrounding North Korea's role in future negotiations.

• Notable Quote: "North Korea's involvement raises the stakes in a way that, well, we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next." ([07:07])

4. Expansion of NATO

Timestamp: [09:30]

The expansion of NATO continued to reshape European security dynamics with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, now numbering 31 members.

• Strategic Enhancements:

  • Strengthened NATO presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions.
  • Increased deterrence against potential Russian aggression.

• Russian Response:

  • Further isolation of Moscow, which perceives NATO's eastward expansion as a direct threat.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker raises: "How will Russia respond to NATO's strengthened northern flank?" ([09:30])
  • Potential for increased military posturing or provocations from Russia.

5. Russia's Shadow War in Europe

Timestamp: [11:15]

Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare tactics across NATO countries, aiming to destabilize the alliance and undermine support for Ukraine.

• Hybrid Warfare Tactics:

  • Cyber Attacks: Targeting critical infrastructure like train stations and energy grids.
  • Bomb Threats: Originating from Russian servers across Europe.
  • Espionage and Terrorism: Attempted bomb plots in Germany, Poland, and near Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport.

• Strategic Goals:

  • Erode NATO's resolve and deter Western support for Ukraine.
  • Spread chaos while maintaining plausible deniability through intermediaries like Belarus.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker questions: "How can NATO confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine?" ([11:15])
  • The need for NATO to ramp up investments and adopt a wartime mindset.

6. Aggression in Asia: China and North Korea's Missile Program

Timestamp: [13:15]

Turning to Asia, two major issues dominated headlines in 2024: China's escalating aggression toward Taiwan and North Korea's aggressive missile program expansion.

• China’s Military Pressure on Taiwan:

  • Massive Military Drills: In October, over 125 Chinese aircraft and 34 naval vessels encircled Taiwan, followed by another significant exercise in December with 90 ships and 50 aircraft.
  • Objective: Intimidate Taiwan, test US and allied resolve, and assert the One China policy.

• North Korea’s Missile Program:

  • Enhanced Missile Tests: On October 31st, North Korea launched what it claimed to be the "world's strongest intercontinental ballistic missile," marking significant progress toward a nuclear-armed ICBM.
  • Potential Russian Support: Speculations that Moscow is assisting North Korea, potentially accelerating their missile capabilities.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • China: "How far is China willing to push its military aggression, and how prepared are Taiwan, the US, and allied nations to deter a potential conflict?" ([13:15])
  • North Korea: Concerns over regional missile defenses and the possibility of an imminent nuclear threat.

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Conclusion

As 2024 draws to a close, these six global stories highlight a year marked by significant geopolitical shifts, escalating conflicts, and strategic realignments. Looking ahead to 2025, the international community faces critical questions on diplomacy, military strategy, and alliance cohesion to navigate the evolving global landscape.

For further insights and updates, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the President's Daily Brief and engage with premium content offerings.

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Notable Quotes:

• "Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence?" — Mike Baker [00:35]
• "Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents, or are we entering a new, more dangerous phase of open Iran-Israel hostilities?" — Mike Baker [02:45]
• "North Korea's involvement raises the stakes in a way that, well, we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next." — Mike Baker [07:07]
• "How will Russia respond to NATO's strengthened northern flank?" — Mike Baker [09:30]
• "How can NATO confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine?" — Mike Baker [11:15]
• "How far is China willing to push its military aggression, and how prepared are Taiwan, the US, and allied nations to deter a potential conflict?" — Mike Baker [13:15]

Transcript

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[Mike Baker]

It's Thursday, the 26th of December. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed today, the day after Christmas, of course, we're doing something a little different. As the year comes to a close, we're taking stock of the events that reshaped global geopolitics. Now we'll be looking back at the top stories in foreign policy and national security, stories that didn't just make headline, but altered the direction of the year ahead. Now, this isn't a ranked list, okay? It's not in any particular order of importance. Each story essentially stands on its own. All right, let's get started. We're calling this first segment A Terrible Year for Tehran. And that could be the title of a Broadway musical, although probably not a very entertaining one. Okay, topping the list for Tehran's troubles, the collapse of the Assad government in Syria. 50 years of Assad family rule came to a dramatic and decisive end just weeks ago when rebel forces swept through Damascus, toppling President Assad's regime. The fall of his regime is one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in the Middle east in decades. For Iran, the implications, frankly, are profound. The Assad regime was a critical pillar of Tehran's so called axis of resistance, a network of allies and proxies stretching across the region. Syria served as Iran's corridor to funnel arms, funds and logistical support to Hezbollah, its crown jewel in Lebanon. With Assad gone, that corridor is frankly severed and Tehran's regional strategy has taken a devastating hit. But the fallout extends beyond Iran. Syria has now become a geopolitical chessboard, with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran scrambling for influence as the country's future, well, it remains uncertain. And while our focus in this segment is on Iran, there's also Russia. Let's not forget them. Assad's closest military backer, Russia, is also maneuvering to secure its interests as a post Assad, Syria takes shape. Putin's military spent years helping Assad suppress and kill Syrians in order to maintain power. And now with two key military bases in Syria, the question is whether the New Syrian leadership has any interest in working with Assad's former BFF. The big questions for 2025 Can Syria stabilize and form a lasting government, or will extremist groups capitalize on the chaos? Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence? And what role, if any, will the US Play as this power vacuum unfolds? Our second story related to the Iranian regime marks an unprecedented escalation. The direct conflict between Israel and Iran. For the first time, these two adversaries moved beyond proxy battles and covert operations to openly exchange missile fire. It shattered decades of shadow warfare and raised fears, of course, of a regional conflagration. It began back in April when an Israeli airstrike targeted Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, reportedly killing senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc. The Iranian regime retaliated with a barrage of ballistic missiles aimed directly at Israeli territory. Within hours, Israel countered with strikes on military installations inside Iran, marking the first ever direct engagement between the two nations. Then, in October, tensions erupted again. Israel conducted a series of targeted assassinations, eliminating Hamas leader Ismail Hanye in Tehran. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other high ranking IRGC generals also went. Iran responded with yet another missile barrage, further testing Israel's Iron Dome defense system. For decades, Israel and Iran fought each other in the shadows through groups like the Iranian backed and built Hezbollah. At Hamas, Israel relied on sabotage and targeted strikes to blunt Iran's nuclear ambitions. But this year. Well, this year broke that mold. The open exchange of fire has not only exposed the risk of a broader war, but underscored Iran's advancing missile capabilities. It also laid bare Iran's vulnerabilities. Here's what we're watching in 2025. Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents, or are we entering a new, more dangerous phase of open Iran Israel hostilities? Will Iran attempt to rebuild their broken proxies in an effort to continue their often stated objective of removing Israel from the map? And how far is Israel willing to go in its mission to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions? Those are the first two major stories of 2024, both defining regional moments in a year that saw the Iranian regime face unprecedented setbacks. All right, coming up, we'll move to Europe, where the war between Ukraine and Russia continued throughout 2024 to shape global power dynamics. I'll be right back.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome Back to the PDB. Next up in our look at 2024 is the war in Ukraine, which is about to enter its third year without major changes to the battlefield. Both sides dug in, and the result has been mounting casualties, massive economic strain, and and what feels like a World War I stalemate. But despite the slow grind of trench warfare, 2024 wasn't without its surprises this year. North Korea bizarrely, got directly involved, sending some 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russian forces. North Korean boots on the ground. Yeah, that's a certain headline for 2024. For Russia, it's been a way to shore up their struggling manpower. And for North Korea, because they're not doing it pro bono, it's a rare chance to flex their military muscles and deepen ties with Moscow, not to mention to barter their soldiers for Russian weapons, technology and assistance. Now, as the war prepares to move into its fourth year, think about that. Its fourth year, Europe is feeling the squeeze. The war has driven up energy prices, fueled inflation, and sparked heated debates across NATO about how long the alliance can sustain its support for Ukraine. And in the US that same debate is growing louder. Aid to Ukraine has become a divisive issue in Washington, with some questioning if it's time to rethink just how much we're sending. And then there's the wild card, North Korea's involvement. It raises the stakes in a way that, well, we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next. Looking ahead to 2025, there's one big question, and that is can there be a diplomatic solution, a negotiated settlement? With a new president elect, Donald Trump, entering the White House and reportedly focused on striking deals, there is a chance that we could see both sides come to the negotiating table. But will both sides be willing to make compromises after the years of bloodshed? And how will North Korea's involvement shape these talks, if, if at all? Our fourth major story of the year is a direct result of our third, and that would be the expansion of NATO. Finland officially joined NATO on April 4, 2023, becoming the alliance's 31st member. And Sweden then followed suit this year on March 7, marking a historic enlargement of the alliance into Northern Europe. Now, this expansion, it does have significant implications. With Sweden and Finland on board, NATO has bolstered its presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions, enhancing its ability to respond to potential Russian aggression. This move further isolates Moscow, which has long viewed NATO's eastward expansion as a direct threat to its sphere of influence. Looking ahead to 2025, well, several questions arise. How will Russia respond to NATO's strengthened northern flank? Will this lead to increased military posturing or provocations from Moscow? And what does this mean for Europe's overall security strategy? The integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO not only shifts the military balance, but influences diplomatic relations and defense policies across the continent. Okay, for our fifth story, we turn to what we on the PDB have been calling Russia's shadow war in Europe. It's a hybrid warfare campaign that's escalated significantly over the past year. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has increasingly turned to clandestine sabotage and hybrid attacks across NATO countries, attempting to destabilize the alliance and undermine support to Kyiv. According to a report by the Helsinki Commission, there have been roughly 150kremlin backed hybrid operations on NATO soil since 2022. That's 150 of them. The pace of these operations has only accelerated throughout 2024, with the Kremlin's methods becoming more sophisticated and dangerous. These hybrid operations have taken many forms. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, including train stations and energy grids, have caused widespread disruptions. Mass bomb threats, often traced to Russian servers, have been reported from the Baltic states to Southern Europe. Russia's operatives have also targeted NATO military installations, including attempted bomb plots at U.S. bases in Germany and espionage efforts aimed at American military sites in Europe. Even Russian orchestrated terrorism plots were thwarted, such as a sabotage attempt at a paint factory in Poland and a bomb plot near Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport. Putin is conducting this effort with an eye towards plausible deniability. Many of these operations are outsourced to cybercriminals, low level operatives, or even allied nations like Belarus, allowing Moscow supposedly to maintain a veneer of separation while spreading chaos across Europe. Now, you ask yourself, why does this matter? Well, it's a good question to ask yourself. Russia's hybrid warfare, it's not just about creating isolated incidents. It's part of a broader strategy to erode NATO's resolve and deter Western nations from supporting Ukraine. By destabilizing European societies and undermining confidence in NATO's collective defense, Moscow hopes to weaken the alliance at its core. As we look to 2025, NATO faces critical questions. How can it confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine? Are the alliance's members prepared to ramp up investments and adopt a wartime mindset to counter this campaign, as the NATO Secretary General suggested? And how can the US and its allies effectively deter Russia's provocations without escalating into broader conflict? Okay, coming up in our final segment, we'll turn our attention to Asia, where China's aggression toward Taiwan and North Korea's escalating missile tests dominated headlines in 2024. I'll be right back.

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[Mike Baker]

Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk warranties. Yeah, I know that's exactly what you were hoping I'd say. But let me ask you this. Would you buy a car without a warranty? Well, no, of course not. What about your other big ticket purchases? Specifically your home's appliances and critical systems? Well, again, the answer should be no. The bottom line is that every day is a good day when you're not worrying about your appliances and your home systems. And that's what you get with an American Home Shield warranty. With an American Home Shield warranty, unexpected breakdowns like a leaky faucet or a faulty water heater won't break the bank because covered repairs and replacements are taken care of just like that. And having that sort of reassurance, well, that's what you would call peace of mind. Choose a plan that works for you and your budget, and then it's simple. When a covered item in your home breaks, contact American Home Shield and their trusted and qualified pros will fix or replace it based on the coverage limits in your agreement. So when it comes to protecting your appliances and home systems, don't worry. Be warrantied. Now, I don't know if warrantied is an actual word, but let's go with it. For 20% off plans, visit ahs.commike for more details. See ahs.comcontracts for coverage details, including limit amounts, fees, limitations, and exclusions. For our fifth story in today's look back at 2024, we're heading to Asia to look at China's escalating aggression toward Taiwan, a stark reminder of Beijing's One China policy. That policy asserts that Taiwan is a breakaway province, not a sovereign nation, and China's president, Xi Jinping, has vowed to retake it by force if necessary. This year, Beijing ramped up its military pressure on Taiwan with some of the most aggressive actions we've seen to date. In October, China conducted massive military drills that surrounded Taiwan, a clear message to the world and to Taiwan's leaders that Beijing isn't backing down. Over 125 Chinese aircraft and 34 naval vessels formed a ring around the island during these exercises. Chinese officials describe the drills as, quote, punishment after Taiwan's president gave a speech vowing to resist annexation and defend the island's sovereignty. Then in December, China staged another show of force. This time, Beijing deployed nearly 90 ships, including warships and coast guard vessels, along Taiwan's waters in what Taiwanese officials called one of China's biggest ever military exercises. Nearly 50 Chinese aircraft were also detected near the island in just a 24 hour period. The exercises came in response to the Taiwanese President's visit to the United States earlier in the month. Further, of course, heightening tensions. These provocations, the military drills, are part of a long term strategy to intimidate Taiwan and to test the resolve of the United States and its allies. Taiwan sits at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain and any conflict there could of course have devastating consequences for the world economy. But beyond that, China's moves are a direct challenge to the US led order in the Indo Pacific. Looking ahead to 2025, the big question is just how far China is willing to push its military aggression and how prepared are Taiwan, the US and allied nations to deter a potential conflict. Will Beijing's provocations stop short of an invasion? Or is it laying the groundwork for a takeover in the not too distant Future? Okay, the sixth and final story in our look at 2024 that I wanted to highlight today is North Korea's full speed push to expand its missile program. This year. Kim Jong Un's regime ramped up its weapons tests with each launch frankly more brazen than the last. One of the biggest headlines came on October 31st. Oh, look at that. Halloween, when North Korea launched what it called the world's strongest, in quotes, the world's strongest intercontinental ballistic missile. Now of course, a lot of that was typical Pyongyang propaganda, but the test itself, frankly, was no joke. The missile flew higher and stayed in the air longer than anything they've tested before. It's a big step toward their goal of building a nuclear armed ICBM that could hit potentially the US mainland. Now, they're not quite there yet. Experts say North Korea still has some work to do, especially with figuring out how to make its warhead survival reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. But here's where things get even more concerning. Moscow might be lending a hand. And when I say might be, I mean Moscow is lending a hand. North Korea's blossoming romance with Putin is really, frankly, a simple relationship. Trading weapons and now troops in exchange for technical knowledge. If Moscow helps fill in the gaps in a significant way, the technical challenges that North Korea has been facing could disappear a lot faster than anyone expected. Meanwhile, the missile tests have ramped up tensions across the region. Japan and South Korea are beefing up their missile defenses. And the US has been stepping up joint military drills with its allies in the Indo Pacific to send a clear message to Pyongyang. And that my friends is the President's Daily brief for Thursday, 26 December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and as I suspect you know by now to listen to the show ad free and simply become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com couldn't be any simpler. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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