The President's Daily Brief: December 26th, 2024 – Top 6 Global Stories of 2024

Hosted by Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer

On this special year-end episode of The President's Daily Brief, Mike Baker delves into the six most pivotal global events of 2024 that have significantly influenced international relations, national security, and geopolitical dynamics. Below is a comprehensive summary of the discussions, complete with notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

1. A Terrible Year for Tehran

Timestamp: [00:35]

Mike Baker opens the briefing by examining the dramatic collapse of the Assad government in Syria, marking the end of 50 years of Assad family rule. This seismic shift has profound implications for Tehran and the broader Middle East.

• Impact on Iran: The Assad regime was central to Iran's "axis of resistance," facilitating the flow of arms and support to allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Assad ousted, Iran's regional strategy faces severe setbacks.

• Regional Power Struggle: The power vacuum in Syria has turned the country into a "geopolitical chessboard," with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran vying for influence. Additionally, Russia, Assad’s former ally, is maneuvering to protect its interests amidst this turmoil.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Can Syria stabilize and establish a lasting government?
  • Will Iran attempt to destabilize Syria further to regain its influence?
  • Mike Baker questions: "Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence?" ([00:35])

2. Direct Conflict Between Iran and Israel

Timestamp: [02:45]

In an unprecedented escalation, Iran and Israel moved beyond proxy wars to engage in direct missile exchanges, fundamentally altering their long-standing antagonistic relationship.

• Escalation Details:

  • April Incident: An Israeli airstrike targeted Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC members, prompting Iran to retaliate with ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli territory.
  • October Escalation: Israel assassinated high-ranking Iranian and Hezbollah leaders, leading to further missile barrages from Iran.

• Consequences:

  • Exposure of Iran's "advancing missile capabilities" and vulnerabilities.
  • Heightened risk of a broader regional war.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker poses: "Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents, or are we entering a new, more dangerous phase of open Iran-Israel hostilities?" ([02:45])

3. The War in Ukraine and North Korea’s Involvement

Timestamp: [07:07]

The protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of resolution as it enters its fourth year. A surprising development this year has been North Korea's direct involvement, sending approximately 10,000 troops to support Russian forces.

• North Korea's Role:

  • Strategic Motives: For Russia, it's a means to bolster manpower. For North Korea, it's an opportunity to "flex their military muscles" and deepen ties with Moscow.

• Impact on Europe and the US:

  • Increased economic strain due to rising energy prices and inflation.
  • Heightened debate within NATO and the US regarding continued support for Ukraine.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Potential for a "diplomatic solution," especially with the newly elected President Donald Trump prioritizing deal-making.
  • Uncertainty surrounding North Korea's role in future negotiations.

• Notable Quote: "North Korea's involvement raises the stakes in a way that, well, we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next." ([07:07])

4. Expansion of NATO

Timestamp: [09:30]

The expansion of NATO continued to reshape European security dynamics with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, now numbering 31 members.

• Strategic Enhancements:

  • Strengthened NATO presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions.
  • Increased deterrence against potential Russian aggression.

• Russian Response:

  • Further isolation of Moscow, which perceives NATO's eastward expansion as a direct threat.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker raises: "How will Russia respond to NATO's strengthened northern flank?" ([09:30])
  • Potential for increased military posturing or provocations from Russia.

5. Russia's Shadow War in Europe

Timestamp: [11:15]

Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare tactics across NATO countries, aiming to destabilize the alliance and undermine support for Ukraine.

• Hybrid Warfare Tactics:

  • Cyber Attacks: Targeting critical infrastructure like train stations and energy grids.
  • Bomb Threats: Originating from Russian servers across Europe.
  • Espionage and Terrorism: Attempted bomb plots in Germany, Poland, and near Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport.

• Strategic Goals:

  • Erode NATO's resolve and deter Western support for Ukraine.
  • Spread chaos while maintaining plausible deniability through intermediaries like Belarus.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • Mike Baker questions: "How can NATO confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine?" ([11:15])
  • The need for NATO to ramp up investments and adopt a wartime mindset.

6. Aggression in Asia: China and North Korea's Missile Program

Timestamp: [13:15]

Turning to Asia, two major issues dominated headlines in 2024: China's escalating aggression toward Taiwan and North Korea's aggressive missile program expansion.

• China’s Military Pressure on Taiwan:

  • Massive Military Drills: In October, over 125 Chinese aircraft and 34 naval vessels encircled Taiwan, followed by another significant exercise in December with 90 ships and 50 aircraft.
  • Objective: Intimidate Taiwan, test US and allied resolve, and assert the One China policy.

• North Korea’s Missile Program:

  • Enhanced Missile Tests: On October 31st, North Korea launched what it claimed to be the "world's strongest intercontinental ballistic missile," marking significant progress toward a nuclear-armed ICBM.
  • Potential Russian Support: Speculations that Moscow is assisting North Korea, potentially accelerating their missile capabilities.

• Future Implications for 2025:

  • China: "How far is China willing to push its military aggression, and how prepared are Taiwan, the US, and allied nations to deter a potential conflict?" ([13:15])
  • North Korea: Concerns over regional missile defenses and the possibility of an imminent nuclear threat.

Conclusion

As 2024 draws to a close, these six global stories highlight a year marked by significant geopolitical shifts, escalating conflicts, and strategic realignments. Looking ahead to 2025, the international community faces critical questions on diplomacy, military strategy, and alliance cohesion to navigate the evolving global landscape.

For further insights and updates, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the President's Daily Brief and engage with premium content offerings.

Notable Quotes:

• "Will Iran attempt to destabilize the country further in a desperate bid to restore its influence?" — Mike Baker [00:35]
• "Will this year's clashes remain isolated incidents, or are we entering a new, more dangerous phase of open Iran-Israel hostilities?" — Mike Baker [02:45]
• "North Korea's involvement raises the stakes in a way that, well, we haven't seen before, creating more uncertainty about where this war could go next." — Mike Baker [07:07]
• "How will Russia respond to NATO's strengthened northern flank?" — Mike Baker [09:30]
• "How can NATO confront these hybrid threats while continuing to support Ukraine?" — Mike Baker [11:15]
• "How far is China willing to push its military aggression, and how prepared are Taiwan, the US, and allied nations to deter a potential conflict?" — Mike Baker [13:15]