The President's Daily Brief

Host: Mike Baker
Date: December 29, 2025
Episode: How China Is Exploiting Russia & U.S. Strikes ISIS

Overview

Mike Baker, former CIA Operations Officer and host, delivers the day's essential geopolitical brief, focusing on China’s exploitation of Russia’s vulnerabilities, U.S. airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria, an Israeli strike on an Iranian Quds Force member, and Israel’s provocative recognition of Somaliland. The episode maintains a sharp, analytical tone, breaking down complex relationships and global maneuvering as 2025 winds down.

Episode Breakdown

1. China Exploiting Russia’s Weakness

(Main segment: 01:20–10:45)

• Narrative Overview:
  Despite outward appearances of a strong Sino-Russian alliance, Baker argues this relationship is actually marked by Beijing’s leverage and exploitation of Moscow’s growing vulnerabilities—economic, diplomatic, and strategic—since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

• Key Insights:

  • China’s motives are always rooted in self-interest, with any partnership carefully structured for Beijing’s benefit.
  • Since sanctions cut Russia off from Europe, China has stepped in as a buyer of Russian energy, but on terms advantageous to itself—securing steep discounts and long-term leverage.
  • Trade between the two has surged but remains lopsided, with Russia increasingly reliant on Chinese goods while mainly exporting discounted raw materials.
  • Settlement of trade in Chinese yuan, touted as a blow to the dollar, actually deepens Russia’s dependency on China’s financial systems.
  • Diplomatically, China provides rhetorical support for Russia but offers no binding military or economic guarantees, all the while posturing as a neutral, influential international mediator.
  • In Central Asia, China is quietly supplanting Russia as the region’s dominant economic and political influence while Moscow is preoccupied in Ukraine.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “When China makes a move, when they take some decision, it's doing what's best for China. Always.” (Mike Baker, 03:09)
  • “It’s not an alliance of equals … Russia doesn’t get to name its price anymore. It takes what it can get.” (Mike Baker, 04:42)
  • “China gains influence. Russia gains what – maybe talking points.” (Mike Baker, 08:40)
  • “China has allowed Russia to bleed economically and diplomatically and militarily, while quietly positioning itself as the senior partner in the relationship.” (Mike Baker, 10:24)

2. U.S. Launches Airstrikes Against ISIS in Nigeria

(Segment: 11:03–14:49)

• Narrative Overview:
  On Christmas Day, the Trump administration executed airstrikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria’s Sokoto state, targeting enclaves responsible for the killing of Christians. The strikes followed months of U.S. warnings and diplomatic escalations, including threats to withdraw U.S. aid.

• Key Insights:

  • The operation marked a dramatic shift from warnings to action, with President Trump emphasizing the U.S.'s commitment to countering anti-Christian violence.
  • Nigerian authorities reportedly approved the strikes. The White House and U.S. Africa Command offered limited details but stated the offensive targeted “known ISIS camps.”
  • The context is complex: Nigeria’s population is roughly evenly split between Christians and Muslims, with violence driven by extremist groups, criminal networks, and ethnic tensions.
  • The Trump administration’s move is seen as responding to pressure from its political base—especially Christian voters demanding tougher action abroad.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “The U.S. launched a strike against ISIS terrorist scum in northwest Nigeria.” (President Trump, qtd. by Mike Baker, 11:22)
  • “The president was clear: the killing of innocent Christians in Nigeria and elsewhere must end.” (Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, 13:57)

3. Israel Kills Iranian Quds Force Operative in Lebanon

(Segment: 14:50–16:55)

• Narrative Overview:
  The Israeli military confirmed the assassination of Hussein Mahmoud Mashad Al Jawari, an Iranian Quds Force operative linked to terror planning against Israeli targets from Syria and Lebanon. The operation highlights ongoing covert conflict amid escalating regional tensions.

• Key Insights:

  • Al Jawari was part of Unit 840, tasked with clandestine operations against Israel.
  • Israel frames the strike as targeted counterterrorism, not broad retaliation.
  • The strike occurs against the backdrop of a tense Israel-Iran rivalry, including recent direct clashes and ongoing Iranian nuclear development.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “He operated inside what’s called Unit 840—a covert Quds Force unit responsible for planning and coordinating attacks against the Jewish state.” (Mike Baker, 15:23)
  • “President Trump is again drawing a hard line on Iran, pledging to stop the regime from obtaining a nuclear weapon and dismissing claims that the mullah's nuclear program is peaceful.” (Mike Baker, 16:41)

4. Israel Recognizes Somaliland

(“Back of the Brief”: 19:50–22:40)

• Narrative Overview:
  Israel became the first nation to formally recognize Somaliland, a self-declared republic that has operated independently since 1991 but lacked international recognition. This move provoked swift regional condemnation and speculation about Israeli intentions.

• Key Insights:

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu described the decision as practical, seeking cooperation in fields such as agriculture and technology.
  • Somaliland welcomed the recognition, pledging to join the Abraham Accords and promote regional stability.
  • Somalia condemned the move as an attack on its sovereignty and vowed diplomatic and legal resistance.
  • Neighboring countries (Egypt, Turkey, Djibouti) expressed concerns about potential destabilization in the Horn of Africa.
  • Speculation arose over whether Israel is seeking strategic advantages, possibly related to recent Gaza conflicts.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “The Jewish state would move to build cooperation with Somaliland across agricultural and health and technology and economic interests.” (Mike Baker, 20:10)
  • “Somalia’s government condemned Israel’s decision as an ‘unlawful step and a deliberate attack on its sovereignty.'” (Mike Baker, 21:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• China Exploiting Russia: 01:20–10:45
• U.S. Airstrikes on ISIS (Nigeria): 11:03–14:49
• Israeli Strike on Quds Force: 14:50–16:55
• Israel Recognizes Somaliland: 19:50–22:40

Memorable Moments & Quotes

“When China makes a move, when they take some decision, it's doing what's best for China. Always.”
(Mike Baker, 03:09)

“Russia may survive this war with China's help, but it will emerge weaker, more isolated and more beholden to Beijing than ever before.”
(Mike Baker, 10:38)

“On Christmas Day… the Trump administration made its move, launching airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Nigeria in an effort to halt the reported slaughter of Christians in the country.”
(Mike Baker, 11:03)

Final Thoughts

The episode provides a piercing analysis of international power dynamics as 2025 concludes, highlighting China’s realpolitik as it tightens its grip on Russia, escalating tensions in Africa and the Middle East, and Israel’s bold diplomatic gambit in the Horn of Africa. Baker’s tone is direct, insightful, and imbued with the urgency of global developments that may shape the years to come.