The President’s Daily Brief — December 2nd, 2025

Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief by The First TV
Episode Theme: Ukraine’s Naval Drone Attacks on Russia’s Shadow Oil Fleet, a Controversial U.S. Strike in the Caribbean, Peace Talk Developments, and a NORAD Intercept Near Mar-a-Lago

Episode Overview

Mike Baker walks listeners through a packed day of international developments. The show leads with Ukraine’s bold new strikes on Russian “shadow fleet” oil tankers, disrupting Moscow’s sanctions evasion network. The episode also covers an emerging potential war crimes scandal involving a U.S. military operation against a suspected drug boat, status updates on U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and a tense airspace violation over Mar-a-Lago that prompted a scramble of F-16s.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine Targets Russia’s Shadow Oil Fleet

Segment Start: [01:04]

• Action: Ukrainian naval drones hit two Russian-operated oil tankers (Karros and Virot) in the Black Sea, outside Ukrainian territorial waters, attacking the core of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
• Explanation of Shadow Fleet:
  • Since Western oil sanctions and price caps, Russia has assembled a clandestine fleet—up to 1,400 tankers—operating under shell companies, carrying Russian oil without Western insurance or oversight.
  • These “dark ships” avoid sanctions via tactics like turning off transponders and conducting ship-to-ship transfers.
• Impact of Attacks:
  • The two targeted tankers were effectively taken out of service.
  • Sends a powerful message: “These ships are not off limits,” even if the fleet is too large to cripple in one go.
  • Increases risk, operating costs, and difficulty for crew recruitment, insurance, and port access.
• Environmental & Trade Risks:
  • These aging, poorly-maintained tankers pose a major environmental threat, especially if sunk in sensitive or congested waterways.
• Ukraine’s Logic and Goals:
  • By targeting the shipping system, Kyiv hopes to undercut “the lifeline” of Russia’s war financing.
• Looking Forward:
  • Will Ukraine continue these strikes?
  • Will ports and insurers react with stricter scrutiny?
  • How might Russia escalate in response?

“[The shadow fleet] is a massive sanctions-evading machine … the lifeline, and Ukraine just proved it can be hit.” – Mike Baker [05:28]

2. Potential U.S. War Crime Probe in the Caribbean

Segment Start: [10:10]

• Incident Recap:
  • U.S. forces struck a suspected drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean. The first strike left survivors; American forces returned to kill the survivors and sink the vessel.
  • This covert “second strike” was never acknowledged in official briefings, triggering investigations into potential violations of the law of armed conflict.
• Political & Legal Fallout:
  • Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and President Trump deny ordering the targeting of survivors, despite contrary reports from the Washington Post.
  • The justification provided: the second strike aimed to eliminate a navigational hazard, not deliberately kill survivors.
  • Ongoing Inquiries: House and Senate committees are demanding clear definitions on operational rules and differences with past humanitarian rescue missions.
• Legal Context:
  • The Trump administration points to a Justice Department ruling designating certain cartel groups as “foreign terrorist organizations,” supposedly providing legal cover for lethal force.
  • Internal Pentagon doubts: Admiral Alvin Halsey, SOUTHCOM, raised legal worries and offered his resignation.
• Continued Campaign: Over 20 strikes and 80+ deaths since September, according to the Pentagon.

“Some legal experts argue that killing survivors or individuals no longer posing a threat violates the law of armed conflict…” – Mike Baker [12:58]

“I think we’re just going to kill people that bring drugs into our country.” – President Trump, quoted by host [14:01]

3. Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: Progress and Limits

Segment Start: [15:55]

• Current State:
  • Following U.S.-Ukraine “very productive” talks, Trump’s team heads to the Kremlin; hope for progress is very limited as Putin holds firm.
• Negotiation Points:
  • The peace plan was reduced from 28 to 19 points to keep negotiations alive; main sticking issue: territorial control.
  • Ukraine refuses to cede land, citing national integrity. Russia wants Ukrainian military withdrawal from occupied areas and a bar on NATO membership.
  • Trump is open to meeting leaders only when “final gaps are small enough to close,” saving his personal diplomacy for last.
• Likely Outlook:
  • Putin highly unlikely to accept a compromise unless economic pressure mounts.
  • Anything resembling appeasement would mean Ukraine accepting Russian demands on territory and defense.

“Unless Kyiv and the U.S. are okay with agreeing to the Kremlin’s longstanding demands and admitting that they’re fine with a policy of appeasement, this peace train isn’t leaving the station.” – Mike Baker [03:00]

“Kiev is trying to keep the momentum going … but the central obstacle hasn’t changed: territorial control…” – Mike Baker [17:12]

4. NORAD Intercept Near Mar-a-Lago

Segment Start: [21:19]

• Event Recap:
  • F-16s were scrambled to intercept a small plane that breached the restricted airspace around Mar-a-Lago while President Trump was present.
  • The civilian pilot ignored radio calls, prompting the jets to deploy flares for visual communication.
  • Aircraft landed safely; NORAD says most such breaches are accidental. FAA investigation pending.
• Safety/Procedure Points:
  • These responses are “routine but always carry a small margin of risk,” with scramble, warning, and visual guidance.

“Restricted airspace is exactly that: restricted around any sitting president or former president under Secret Service protection…” – Mike Baker [22:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “These ships are not off limits and it raises the operating costs…” – Mike Baker [06:30]
• “Some legal experts argue that killing survivors or individuals no longer posing a threat violates the law of armed conflict.” [12:58]
• “If the intention is to give Putin what he wants… you can get a peace deal. It’s called appeasement.” – Mike Baker [18:50]
• “Each time the response is nearly identical: intercept jets, flares, visual communication, escort. It’s a routine mission for NORAD, but one that always carries a small margin of risk.” [22:18]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:04] – Opening & Ukraine’s shadow fleet strikes introduction
• [03:00] – Geopolitical implications of peace talks
• [05:28] – Deep dive: what is the “shadow fleet” and why it matters
• [10:10] – U.S. strike on Caribbean drug boat and the legal controversy
• [15:55] – U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks: progress update
• [21:19] – F-16 scramble over Mar-a-Lago: details and context

Tone and Language

Mike Baker’s delivery is brisk, informed, and slightly sardonic, especially in his analysis of diplomatic maneuvering and bureaucratic statements. He maintains a matter-of-fact, intelligence-briefing style aimed at providing context and informed skepticism throughout.

Summary & Takeaways

This episode underscores the ongoing complexity and high stakes of the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. security operations abroad, and the perennial unpredictability of global diplomacy. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet mark a significant evolution in economic warfare, while the U.S. military’s actions in the Caribbean could trigger major legal and political repercussions. Meanwhile, peace in Ukraine remains elusive, largely subject to the whims of the Kremlin, and even routine presidential travel can prompt tense military responses.

Listeners leave with a strong sense of the pressures, risks, and strategic calculations behind the headlines – neatly packaged in a brisk 20-minute intelligence briefing.