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The President's Daily Brief
December 2nd, 2025: Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Shadow Fleet & A Potential War Crime Probe
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Foreign.
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It's Tuesday, the 2nd of December. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, I am still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Kyiv targets the heart of Russia's war financing. Ukrainian naval drones slam into two shadow fleet tankers, disrupting Moscow's covert oil pipeline to global markets. Later in the show, a potential scandal is emerging in the White House's campaign against drug boats. Sources say U.S. forces launched a second strike on a vessel after the first attack left survivors. Now that could be considered a potential war crime. Plus, Trump's negotiators are heading to the Kremlin following what the president calls, quote, very productive discussions with Kiev. The next round could decide whether a deal is actually within reach. Here's a pro tip, it's probably not within reach. As a side note, it doesn't really, really matter if the US And Ukraine are having productive talks. The only player in this game at this point that matters is, well, yes, you guessed it, Putin. And if he doesn't appear to be willing to make any concessions, well, then you don't have a deal. So unless Kyiv and the US Are okay with agreeing to the Kremlin's long standing demands and admitting that they're fine with a policy of appeasement. This peace train isn't leaving the station. And in today's back of the brief, a tense moment over Palm beach as F16s intercept a civilian plane that breached the no fly zone around Mar a Lago. But first, today's pdb. Ukraine has opened a new front in the economic war against Moscow, one aimed not at troops or command posts, but at the heart of Russia's sanctions busting oil network, its tanker fleet that carries its illicit crude around the world. Ukrainian naval drones hit two tankers from Russia's so called shadow fleet in the Black Sea. Those vessels were headed to load oil for export. According to a Ukrainian security official speaking to Reuters, the strikes targeted tankers named Karros and Virot, both of which have been previously sanctioned and flagged by Western intelligence services as part of Moscow's illegal oil transport system. Fires broke out on at least one vessel. Crews were evacuated, and the officials said both tankers were effectively taken out of service. Service. Forbes later reported additional details. These weren't minor hits. Satellite imagery and Ukrainian sources suggest the strikes occurred off the northern Turkish coast. That's well outside Ukrainian territorial waters. That means Ukraine is now extending its maritime drone campaign deeper into the Black Sea, hitting ships that Russia believed were operating safely under the COVID of international waters. Kyiv has targeted Russia's maritime and oil network in the past, of course, but this weekend's attack is these were shadow fleet ships, the workhorses that move Russian crude around the world. So you ask, why hit these particular tankers? Well, because they're part of a massive sanctions evading machine, one that helps Russia move its oil, earn its revenue, and keep financing the war. And that's where today's backstory comes in, because the phrase shadow fleet gets thrown around a lot. But it's worth taking a moment to explain what it actually is and why it matters. Since the invasion, the US and its allies imposed sanctions on Russian oil, including a price cap designed to limit how much Moscow earns from each barrel that it sells. Now, that cap only works if Western insurers, shippers and financial institutions refuse to support oil shipments above the allowed price. So Russia built a workaround, a dark, loosely regulated fleet of tankers designed to operate outside the Western system. Now, this shadow fleet is huge. Estimates vary, but depending on the source, Russia now controls or relies on anywhere from 1,000 to nearly 1,400 tankers operating under shell companies and opaque ownership structures. Many are old, some more than 20 or 30 years past their prime. Most are questionably maintained. Almost all of them carry a level of risk that makes Western insurers deeply uneasy. And that's the point. These ships don't use Western insurers, they don't use Western financing, and they avoid Western oversight altogether. They essentially run dark. They turn off transponders, they conduct ship to ship transfers to obscure where the oil comes from. They hop between ports with lax oversight, and they deliver Russian crude to countries willing to buy it, often at prices well above the cap. This fleet has been enormously profitable for the Kremlin, even with sanctions in place. Moscow has been earning tens of billions of dollars ann by selling crude through this parallel system. So from Ukraine's perspective, the logic is straightforward. If you can't stop the oil at the wellhead and you can't stop the buyers, then you go after the ships that make the whole scheme possible. You ask, okay, is this going to cripple the shadow fleet? And the answer is no, at least not by itself. A fleet of 1,000 tankers won't collapse because two vessels were taken out. But it does send a message. These ships are not off limits and it raises the operating costs of every tanker. In that system, owners may demand higher payments for risk. Crews may get harder to recruit. Insurers, even the gray market ones may walk away. Ports may be more reluctant to let these vessels in. All of that erodes the economic viability of Russia's sanctions evasion model. There's another angle too, and that would be safety. Maritime experts have warned for months that the shadow fleet is a ticking time bomb or old, poorly maintained tankers moving millions of barrels of crude with minimal oversight. An attack on one of these vessels carries real environmental risks. And if one of these ships goes down in the Bosphorus or the Dardanelles or another congested shipping lane, the consequences could derail international trade. But from Ukraine's standpoint, the risk is worth it. Moscow's war machine depends on money. Their money depends on oil, and oil depends on the ships that carry it. That shadow fleet is a lifeline, and Ukraine just proved it can be hit. So here's what we should be looking for in the coming days. First off, whether Ukraine repeats this action, a one off strike, is symbolic. But a sustained campaign of these strikes could be very disruptive. Kyiv has shown increasing ambition in its maritime operations. And if these drone strikes continue, Russia may be forced to reroute or even idle portions of its export network. Second, whether insurers and port states tighten enforcement, if ports in Turkey, India or the Gulf begin scrutinizing these ships more closely, that could slow down Russia's exports dramatically. And finally, whether Moscow escalates its response, Russia has already warned Ukraine against targeting its energy infrastructure. Hitting tankers on the high seas adds a different level of pressure, and the Kremlin may feel compelled to respond. Alright. Coming up next, a reported second US strike on a suspected drug boat. Sparks calls for an investigation and Trump's team heads to the Kremlin following discussions with Ukrainian officials. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip on how to feed your family right, this holiday season. Look, this time of year, of course, everything gets busier, right? Schedules and travel, shipping and even the grocery stores. 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Welcome back to the PDB. We're now learning that the US military went back for a second strike on a drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean after the first blast didn't kill everyone on board. That's a decision pulling Washington's attention back to that September operation. According to people familiar with the mission, the 2 September strike, which opened the military's campaign against narco terrorists, didn't unfold as the Pentagon first described it. And what's becoming clear is that the controversy isn't about the first blast at all. It's about the second one. After the initial strike disabled the boat but left two drug runners alive in the water. American forces circled back and fired again, killing the survivors and sinking the vessel. As our regular listeners will remember, the White House announced the Caribbean military mission the day that that happened. President Donald Trump framed it as part of a tougher posture toward narco terrorist networks tied to Venezuela groups that the White House contends have fueled tens of thousands of American deaths. But the administration never acknowledged a second strike or that survivors were targeted, and that omission has sparked this potential scandal. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth denied ever ordering commanders to ensure no one survived, pushing back on the Washington Post's recent reporting that he instructed so, calling the allegations, quote, fabricated, inflammatory and derogatory. President Trump backed the secretary, stating that Hegseth assured him he, quote, did not order the death of those two men. Still, the Washington Post maintains that Hegseth verbally urged commanders beforehand to make sure no one on the boat survived the initial strike. According to the Post, when two individuals remained alive in the water, the operational commander ordered a second hit to follow the secretary of War's direction, and people briefed on the mission told CNN the military new survivors were present before the follow up blast. But Pentagon officials have presented a different rationale, telling reporters and lawmakers the second strike was carried out to sink the damaged boat so it would not become a navigational hazard. However, sources familiar with the briefing saying this is the only known case where survivors were deliberately killed, and that distinct is what's driving the legal questions. Some legal experts argue that killing survivors or individuals no longer posing a threat violates the law of armed conflict, and those concerns exist within the Pentagon as well. Admiral Alvin Halsey, the head of US Southern Command, raised legal doubts during a tense meeting with Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chair General Dan Kane and later offered to step down. He will leave his post in December. That's just a year into his tenure on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers from both parties are demanding more clarity. The Republican led Senate and House Armed Services committees have launched separate inquiries promising vigorous oversight and pressing the Pentagon on how the September double tap strike fits within the rules governing this campaign. The committees also point to the contrast with recent missions, such as an October strike where US Forces rescued survivors and repatriated them. The Trump administration says the campaign rests on firm legal ground. Administration officials cite a classified Justice Department opinion that designates more than two dozen drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. It's a determination lawyers say authorizes lethal force when traffickers pose an imminent threat. Trump has made his administration's position clear, saying last month, quote, I think we're just going to kill people that bring drugs into our country, end quote. Despite the political backlash, the campaign continues. Pentagon officials say the US has carried out more than 20 strikes on vessels tied to drug trafficking networks since September, killing more than 80 people. The administration says every mission is lawful, tightly vetted, and aims squarely at narco terrorists that it says are responsible for staggering levels of American drug deaths. So as the House and Senate committees move forward with their inquiries, the White House says the mission can't lose any momentum, pledging to push on so long as the narco terror networks still feed drugs into the country. All right. Shifting to peace talks. President Trump is sounding optimistic, saying there's a, quote, good chance at a deal between Russia and Ukraine. But the road ahead, of course, runs through the Kremlin, where unresolved territorial demands still must be dealt with. After a weekend of what Washington called, quote, very productive stateside talks with Ukraine. Trump's team is treating this next step almost like a stress test. The moment when they'll find out whether the progress on paper can survive a face to face with Russian President Putin. Well, of course it can survive if. If the intention is to give Putin what he wants. Kiev, meanwhile, is trying to keep the momentum going. Ukrainian President Zelensky described the US Talks in a post on X as, quote, very constructive, even as he acknowledged that the toughest issues are still sitting on the table and the shift over just a few days is noticeable. The original 28 point peace plan that rattled Ukrainian officials last month by favoring Mo was gutted in Geneva to a 19 point version that they can actually keep negotiating over. That's a change in strategy that Kee credits to President Trump's envoys. Those Geneva revisions set off a rapid diplomatic sprint. In Florida over the weekend, Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner huddled with the Ukrainian delegation that had just been reshuffled after Keev's top negotiator resigned amid the country's ongoing corruption scandal. Rubio told reporters that, quote, so much work remains, but framed the current plan as another step toward aligning both sides around a workable plan. Ukraine's team, consisting of National Security Adviser Rustem Umarov, the chief of staff of the armed forces in Kyiv's deputy intelligence chief seemed to agree. Umarov said the talks produced, quote, substantial progress, but the central obstacle hasn't changed. That would be territorial control. Both Moscow and Kyiv acknowledge that it's the core issue, the one that will ultimately determine whether a peace deal is even possible. The two sides remain worlds apart on what territorial compromise even looks like. Ukraine says giving up land would tear the country apart politically, and Zelenskyy has tried to push the issue directly with Trump instead of locking in any commitments. Russia, on the other hand, has shown no willingness to bend. And for the Kremlin, well, they want the Donbass. And Trump has been blunt about the complications, saying Ukraine's corruption situation isn't helping the process, but still told reporters aboard Air Force One that there's a chance we could make a deal. The president has made it clear he'll only meet Zelensky or Putin once those final gaps are small enough to close, a sign he's keeping personal diplomacy in reserve for maximum leverage. But Putin, for now, is sticking to his script. He repeated that fighting will only end when Ukrainian forces withdraw from Russian occupied territories, warning he'll seize them by force if they don't. Despite frontline gains moving at a snail's pace and the casualty count climbing. For what it's worth, if Kyiv is strong armed into accepting Putin's territorial demands, along with his insistence that Ukraine limit its future military and never join NATO, then, yes, you can get a peace deal. It's called appeasement. Otherwise, the option is to increase the sanctions on Russia, further squeeze their economy, and create a situation where Putin can either come to the table and accept a deal or risk losing his grip on power. That imagined middle ground where compromise happens, well, that's not a place where Putin operates. All right, coming up in the back of the brief. US F16s scramble near Mar a Lago, firing flares to intercept a civilian aircraft that strayed into restricted airspace. I'll have those details when we come back. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we've got an unusual scene out of southern Florida where US F16s were scrambled over the weekend to intercept a civilian aircraft that wandered into temporarily restricted airspace near mar a Lago. NORAD says the incident happened late Saturday afternoon, just after 4:20pm When a small plane crossed into the security perimeter that was active while President Trump was staying at his Palm beach residence. According to officials, the pilot did not respond to standard radio calls, which triggered the next step in the playbook. That would be two F16s launched from nearby bases to make visual contact. As they approached, the jets deployed flares. That's a common tactic used to get a pilot's attention when radio communication fails. The civilian aircraft eventually responded and was guided out of the restricted zone without further issue, according to authorities. No hostile intent is suspected here. In fact, NORAD stresses that most of these episodes are accidental, usually the result of a pilot misunderstanding or ignoring temporary flight restrictions, or not checking the day's notices to airmen. But those mistakes still matter because restricted airspace is exactly that restricted around any sitting president or former president under Secret Service protection. These zones are enforced aggressively and without delay. If an aircraft crosses the line, the military responds, even if the ultimate outcome is benign. If this story sounds familiar, it's because incidents like this happen more often than most people realize. Over the past few years, jets have been scrambled multiple times near Mar a Lago for the same reason civilian pilots entering the security ring either by accident or carelessness. Each time the response is nearly identical. Intercept jets, flares, visual communication, escort. It's a routine mission for norad, but one that always carries a small margin of risk. Fast moving fighter jets startled civilian pilots and very little time to make decisions. Officials say there were no injuries, no damage, and no threat to the public. On Saturday, the aircraft landed safely at a nearby airport and authorities are still determining why the pilot ended up inside the restricted zone in the first place. The FAA may take administrative action depending on the final report. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 2nd December. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and if you're jonesing for an ad free experience, well, you can get that. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.