The President's Daily Brief – December 31, 2025

Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Theme: A covert CIA drone strike inside Venezuela, the unraveling of Russian society under prolonged war, and a deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with a closing segment on a Texas man charged with aiding ISIS.

Episode Overview

In this final episode of 2025, Mike Baker delivers an incisive analysis on three headline geopolitical events:

1. The CIA’s covert drone attack on Venezuelan soil—a significant escalation in US policy towards the Maduro regime.
2. Fresh insights into the gradual decay and mounting strains within Russian society nearly four years into the Ukraine war.
3. A brewing conflict in the Gulf as Saudi Arabia and the UAE clash over Yemen. The “Back of the Brief” segment spotlights a domestic counterterrorism case showing ISIS’s enduring threat.

1. CIA Drone Strike in Venezuela

Segment start: [00:33]

• Details of the Operation:

  • The US has officially confirmed a drone strike inside Venezuela, targeting a remote port facility believed linked to narcotics trafficking, run by the gang “Trent or TDA.”
  • Not a military action; the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducted the strike, according to a CNN exclusive.
  • No casualties reported; the targeted facility and associated boats were destroyed.

• Legal & Strategic Context:

  • The US military is legally constrained to at-sea operations in Venezuela—land strikes typically fall outside its purview.
  • The CIA operates under different authorities, enabled further by Trump administration expansions.
  • The action is seen as not a one-off, but a “test case”—an experiment in applying counterterrorism frameworks to criminal networks, blending “covert action and strategic ambiguity.”
  • Notable Quote [02:44]:

    “Using the intelligence community, meaning the CIA instead of military forces, does signal a different kind of operation...the CIA, however, operates under a different set of authorities than the US military—authorities the Trump administration has expanded and leaned on...”
    — Mike Baker

• Diplomatic and Regional Reaction:

  • Venezuela’s government has not publicly acknowledged the strike, despite a pattern of denouncing US maritime operations.
  • Silence from regional governments is notable given ongoing US pressure campaigns.
  • The broader context: Operation Southern Spear, an expansive US counter-narcotics initiative targeting smuggling, oil tankers, and effectively blockading aspects of the Venezuelan economy.

• The Escalating US Approach:

  • President Trump’s social media statements go beyond narco-terrorism, demanding Venezuela “return” oil and land.
  • US naval, aerial, and interdiction operations have intensified, with at least 30 boat strikes and 107 deaths reported since September.
  • Framing the campaign as anti-narco-terrorism, but with explicit linkage to regime change ambitions:

    “Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has compared Venezuela’s drug traffickers to Al Qaeda, signaling that the tools and logic of counterterrorism are increasingly being applied to criminal networks in the region.”
    — Mike Baker [06:24]

2. Russia’s Society Straining under War

Segment start: [07:58]

• Washington Post’s On-the-Ground Reporting:

  • Reporters spoke with Russian soldiers, officials, and volunteers; the country is unraveling “not in a dramatic collapse, not all at once, but in ways increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to control or even conceal.”

• A Soldier’s Testimony:

  • One wounded soldier, Fyodor, who lost his leg to a mine, told the Post:

    “I would never have signed a contract if I’d known what it’s like out there, our television is lying to us.”
    — Fyodor, Russian soldier [08:32]

• Societal Breakdown:

  • Over a million Russian casualties since the war’s outbreak, with heavy losses for minimal gains.
  • The split between “Warring Russia” (soldiers, families, defense workers) and the rest of society:
    • Warring Russia: ~20% who see the war as existential.
    • The rest: passive, quietly opposed, or withdrawn.
    • Strain comes from the unevenly shared burden of war:

      “Wars become harder to sustain when the burden is unevenly shared and openly felt by only a small minority.”
      — Mike Baker [10:32]

• State Response:

  • Generous compensation and benefits for soldiers; increased military spending help prop up local economies, especially in depressed regions.
  • Researchers note higher reported life satisfaction in some areas, due to these economic injections.

• Fragile Stability:

  • Under the surface:
    • Concern about trauma and post-war readjustment, esp. for fighters recruited from prison.
    • Returning soldiers have already committed violent crimes; regional leaders privately expect serious social problems.

• Expanding Repression:

  • The government now surveils and suppresses not just liberals and journalists, but even pro-war ultra-nationalists.
    • Example: military bloggers labeled “foreign agents” after criticizing internal corruption.
  • Crackdown on youth and cultural expressions:
    • In St. Petersburg, two teenage musicians were arrested for anti-war songs.

      “When music becomes a threat, you could argue that it’s a sign the system feels insecure.”
      — Mike Baker [12:14]

• Comparison to Ukraine:

  • Both societies are stressed, but “the difference is that Ukraine didn’t choose this war. Russia did.”

3. Saudi Arabia-UAE Rift Ignites Over Yemen

Segment start: [13:19]

• Incident Summary:

  • Saudi warplanes struck the Yemeni port city of Mokalla, targeting a shipment alleged to be UAE-supplied weapons destined for separatists (Southern Transitional Council, STC).
  • Saudi officials say the shipment was an “imminent threat”—the STC, backed by the UAE, seeks a breakaway South Yemen.
  • STC gains threaten Saudi interests by pushing closer to its border (“national security red line”).

• Broader Context:

  • Coalition against Houthi rebels has long been split by divisions—this strike exacerbates those rifts.

• Escalation and Aftermath:

  • UAE denied arming the separatists, insisting the vehicles were for its own forces, and called for “restraint and wisdom.”
  • Within hours, the Emirati Defense Ministry announced withdrawal of all remaining UAE troops from Yemen.
  • Anti-Houthi Yemeni forces aligned with Saudi Arabia declared a state of emergency, cut ties with UAE-allied groups, and shut down border crossings, airports, and seaports.

• Regional Implications:

  • The clash undermines the anti-Houthi coalition, threatening the unity of Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council.
  • The future of STC-held territory remains unclear, and the possibility for further intervention from Abu Dhabi lingers.

4. Back of the Brief: Texas Man Charged with Supporting ISIS

Segment start: [18:25]

• Case Summary:

  • 21-year-old John Michael Garza Jr. of Texas allegedly supplied bomb-making materials and cryptocurrency to undercover agents he believed were working for ISIS.
  • The investigation started when an undercover NYPD employee flagged Garza’s account for repeated interaction with ISIS propaganda.
  • Over two months, Garza sent videos of suicide bombings and detailed instructions for building shrapnel-packed bombs.

    “Gaza allegedly handed over bomb making components to the agent, explained how to mix the chemicals, and provided detailed instructions for assembling a shrapnel packed device...”
    — Mike Baker [19:10]

• Law Enforcement Statements:

  • Attorney General Bam Bondi:

    “ISIS’s poisonous ideology must be ripped out, root and stem. Anyone who tries to commit violence on ISIS’s behalf will be found, arrested and prosecuted.” [19:45]

  • FBI Director Cash Patel:

    The charges show “how investigators work to disrupt extremist activity at its earliest stages.” [19:58]

• Legal Stakes:

  • Garza faces up to 20 years in federal prison if convicted for attempting to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• CIA Strike as New Model:

  “The CIA strike appears less about the destruction of a dock or small warehouse and more about testing a model, one that blends covert action and strategic ambiguity.”
  — Mike Baker, [06:22]

• Russia’s Invisible Casualties:

  “[In Russia,] frustration has no legitimate outlet. That pressure doesn’t dissipate, it builds.”
  — Mike Baker, [09:22]

• Cultural Crackdown:

  “When music becomes a threat, you could argue that it’s a sign the system feels insecure.”
  — Mike Baker, [12:14]

• On Yemen and Saudi-UAE Rivalry:

  “For Saudi Arabia, this was not just about a single weapons shipment or limited tactical strike. The deeper concern is that the UAE-backed separatist advances are edging closer to the kingdom’s borders, something Riyadh has labeled a national security red line.”
  — Mike Baker, [15:32]

Timestamps Summary

• 00:33: Venezuelan CIA drone strike overview
• 07:58: Washington Post reporting on Russian societal strain
• 13:19: Saudi airstrikes in Yemen; rupture with UAE
• 18:25: Counterterrorism case: Texas man charged with ISIS support

Tone & Language:
Mike Baker’s tone throughout is sober, analytical, and pragmatic, laced with security jargon and clear-eyed assessments. He provides both global strategic context and personal, on-the-ground stories to illustrate the human dimension of each issue.

Conclusion

This episode delivers crucial updates on major flashpoints—from the US moving into direct covert strikes in Latin America, to a Russia increasingly worn down by its own war, to old Gulf alliances fraying amid proxy battles. The closing terror case is a stark reminder that global threats often manifest locally.
Listeners are left with a sense of a rapidly changing world, the interconnections between US foreign policy and broader security challenges, and the mounting unpredictability that will shape 2026.