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The President's Daily Brief
February 10th, 2026: Second Wave Of Protests Builds In Iran & Israel Signals Unilateral Action
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It's Tuesday, the 10th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, public anger is once again flaring up across Iran. And and this time the anger isn't just on the streets, but inside the regime itself. I'll have the details later in the show. As Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu prepares to meet with President Trump, new reports suggest Israel has warned Washington it may act alone if Iran crosses a ballistic missile red line. Plus, Russia's foreign minister is accusing the White House of backing out of alleged agreements tied to Ukraine, accusing Trump of, quote, bidenism. Now, I don't know this for sure, but I suspect that President Trump won't find it charming that Putin and his minions are comparing him to former President Biden. That's just a guess. And in today's Back of the Brief, a chilling reminder of China's grip on Hong Kong as media tycoon and democracy advocate Jimmy lai receives a 20 year prison sentence. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. A second wave of public unrest appears to be building inside Iran, and this one looks different from what we saw just weeks ago. According to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Iran is now seeing a broader, more deeply rooted surge of anger following last month's mass killings of protesters. What began as street demonstrations has evolved into something far more persistent and far more dangerous for the regime. A society wide rejection that's showing up in schools, hospitals, universities, unions and even at funerals. Mourning families are chanting anti regime slogans over the graves of those killed by security forces. University students are holding memorials for classmates who died during the crackdown and refusing to stay silent. Medical students are staging sit ins to protest the arrest of doctors who treated injured demonstrators. Teachers unions are issuing public statements condemning the violence. High school students are quietly refusing to sing the national anthem. It has the appearance of what could become sustained defiance. And importantly, the rhetoric has changed. Iranians are no longer calling for reform or accountability. They're openly calling for the fall of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, long under house arrest and once considered a reformist, has now said the Islamic Republic is beyond reform and must be replaced altogether. Mousavi said, quote, when you are wearing the uniform of war against your own people, you are striking your own roots with an axe. Civil society activists have published open letters blaming Khamenei personally for what they describe as crimes against humanity. A well known Iranian Actress has announced she'll no longer perform, saying she refuses to work in a country that smells of blood. Now, as you can imagine, the regime's response to the ongoing unrest has been brutal and expansive. Security forces are carrying out waves of arrests, not just at protests, but afterward, detaining people in their homes, at memorial services, and even inside hospitals. Armed men in plain clothes have reportedly raided medical centers, dragging away injured protesters seeking treatment. Doctors and nurses accused of helping demonstrators have been beaten and detained. Teachers have warned students to stay home if they show visible injuries and to wipe their phones of anything political before inspections. Independent rights groups estimate that roughly 7,000 people have been killed since demonstrations began in late December, with more than 50,000. That's 5, 0, 50,000 arrested. Iranian authorities say the numbers are far lower. Oh, labeling the dead as rioters or terrorists? Well, I'm sure the Iranian regime wouldn't lie about something like that. One woman interviewed by the Journal summed it up by saying that people are terrified, but also filled with hatred. She said many Iranians are willing to die themselves if it means their children won't have to live under the same system. So that's the mood on the street. What about the mood in the halls of power? Well, that brings us to something new. Evidence that those in charge may believe this wave of public anger is far from over. That evidence comes from Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. Bessant described what he says is a growing sense of panic among Iran's leadership, driven by economic collapse and sustained U.S. sanctions. According to Bessant, the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign has created a severe dollar shortage inside Iran, putting enormous strain on the financial system. But even more importantly, Bessant told senators that Iranian leaders are currently wiring money out of the country like crazy, adding rats are leaving the ship, and arguing that capital flight on scale suggests that those at the top believe the regime itself may be in danger. If Bessen's account is accurate, it doesn't mean that the Islamic Republic is about to collapse tomorrow. As we've repeatedly seen, authoritarian systems can absorb enormous pressure before they finally break. But it is a strong indication that those in power still believe the threat to their grip on power is very real. When unrest spreads beyond the streets and into the fabric of everyday life, schools, hospitals, unions. And when the people running the system start moving their money offshore, well, it tells you something important. Members of the government with the wherewithal may be looking for the exit door. Coming up next, Israel warns that it may act unilaterally if Iran crosses a ballistic missile red line. And Moscow accuses President Trump of backing away from alleged Ukraine agreements. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, whether you're in a one or two income household, if you're a breadwinner, well, you know this. You're carrying a lot of responsibility. I'm talking mortgage payments, tuition bills, everyday bills that don't just disappear should something unfortunate happen to you or your partner. Now, thinking about it, thinking about the what ifs in life, it can be overwhelming. But I'm here to tell you that taking steps to protect your family financially is now a lot easier than it used to be. And that's why I recommend Ethos Life Insurance. That's Ethos. E T H O S just like it sounds. It's fast, easy, and 100% online. You get a quote in seconds, you can apply in minutes, and you get same day coverage up to $3 million. And some policies are as low as $30 a month. 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Iran's missile program keeps advancing, its proxy networks keep operating, and none of that is addressed if negotiations remain confined to the nuclear negotiations. Thus far, Tehran has only been willing to engage on its nuclear program, drawing a hard line against any discussion of missiles or regional activity. Now, it's just speculation, but there may be a couple of key factors at play here. One, the Iranian regime may be feeling like it can drive this negotiation train because they got away with murder during the protests. Well, okay, thousands of murders. The fact that there was no meaningful response from the international community may be emboldening the leaders of Iran. The other factor may be that the White House could be so keen to secure a nuclear deal despite past deals being somewhere between useless and pretty much useless, that they're willing to let Iran dictate terms for negotiations and willing to look the other way as the regime continues to crack down on dissent. And internally, as we previously discussed, the US And Iran met indirectly in Oman last week and Trump described those talks as, quote, very good. That, of course, was not a declaration of success, but a signal that sustained American pressure may be at least getting Iran to the negotiating table. However, the Iranian leadership refuted Trump's positive description of the talks, literally calling him a liar. The reality is, once the talks got underway, negotiators quickly ran into the same roadblocks that stalled diplomacy before Iran's unwillingness to negotiate on its missile program and its proxy networks. The Trump administration, of course, has paired diplomacy with sustained and expanded military pressure, repeatedly warning that force remains an option if Iran refuses to reach a comprehensive deal on its red lines. But that posture has rattled regional capitals. Gulf Arab states warned that any strike in Iran could ignite a broader conflict with memories still fresh from the 12 day Israel Iran War last June. But from Washington's standpoint, easing pressure without securing meaningful concessions would leave the mullahs freer to advance the regime's capabilities and probably leave them with the belief that the US doesn't really have any red lines. Iran's messaging since the talks only reinforce how wide the gap remains. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi warned that if the US Attacks Iran, Tehran lacks the ability to strike the American homeland and would instead retaliate against US Military bases across the region. Crucially, Iraqi has since reiterated that Iran's ballistic missile program is, quote, in no way negotiable. Now that position collides directly with U. S And Israeli demands. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that any viable agreement must include limits on missiles and Iran's regional activities. That's the message Netanyahu is bringing to the White House. No narrow nuclear deal, no easing of pressure, and no constraints on Israel's ability to act militarily if Iran crosses red lines with its continued production and stockpiling of ballistic missiles. So where does that leave things? Well, if you, if you think it sounds like a bit of a chaotic, jumbled mess, you wouldn't be far off. Officials say Israel has outlined operations operational scenarios to degrade Iran's missile production and infrastructure should American diplomacy fail and US Military pressure remains for show only. All right, I want to turn now to an accusation that Moscow is leveling at the White House. Russia's foreign minister claims the US Backed out of alleged agreements on Ukraine. And he's directing that charge at President Trump, accusing the administration of slipping back into what he calls Bidenism. And by the way, the Kremlin accusing another government of not honoring agreements is, well, humorous at best. Here's how Russia wants to set the frame. Speaking to the Russian registered outlet TV Bricks, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims the US Made an offer during talks he says took place in Anchorage in 2025. According to Lavrov, that alleged proposal would have ended the war by having Ukraine cede the entire Donbass region to Russia without further fighting. He put it bluntly. Lavrov says the US Made the offer, Russia agreed, and the problem should have been resolved. Only now Washington is supposedly backing away, according to Lavrov. From there, Lavrov widened the argument. He says Russia's acceptance of those terms should have unlocked broader cooperation with Washington. Instead, he claims, the opposite occurred. Sanctions remained in place, pressure mounted on Russian energy exports, and Western governments moved against Moscow's shadow fleet. But I want to point out there's just one problem with Lavrov's narrative. The White House never confirmed any such agreement ever existed. Despite that news from the Trump administration, Lavrov pressed the point by citing American sanctions, many of which originated under the Biden administration. He criticized the continued freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves and singled out newer sanctions imposed under Trump against Russia's largest oil producers. And this is where Lavrov introduces the label by Bidenism. In Moscow's telling, Bidenism isn't about diplomacy. It's about sanctions that keep biting after promises of alleviating that pressure, its energy revenues being squeezed, and Russia's war economy increasingly under strain. From Lavrov's perspective, Trump was supposed to abandon the Biden playbook, not continue it. I'm sorry, Sergei. Lavrov even argued that those sanctions came weeks after what he described as a, quote, very good meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, portraying the economic pressure as proof that Washington's approach hasn't really changed. Lavrov also condemned Western efforts to disrupt Russia's oil shipments, accusing the US and its partners of waging what he calls a, quote, war against tankers on the high seas. I don't know where that fits on the ladder of unacceptable activities. Maybe it's below invading a sovereign nation. I don't know. He singled out American pressure on India and other buyers to stop purchasing discounted Russian oil, a move that directly targets one of the Kremlin's most important sources of revenue. That pressure matters because, as we've discussed here on the pdb, Russia's war economy is obviously deeply dependent on oil and gas exports. Inflation is high, interest rates are elevated, and Moscow has fewer options than ever before. Trump has made no secret of using tariffs and secondary sanctions to squeeze that revenue stream, including tariffs on India for its purchases of Russian oil pressure that Trump said would push New Delhi to shift to importing US Controlled Venezuelan oil instead of now all this circles back to the real sticking point in Ukraine. Russia ceasefire talks, and that would be, of course, territory, specifically the Donbass. Russia has long demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the eastern region and has increasingly tied any future peace deal to Kyiv, surrendering complete control. Ukraine has rejected that demand, though officials say alternative agreements such as the Demilitarized Zone could be discussed. As it stands, Kyiv still controls approximately one fifth of the Donbass. A US Source familiar with the talks told the Kyiv Independent that Washington is not forcing any territorial concessions on Ukraine, emphasizing that any peace deal must be agreed to by both Kyiv and Moscow. And that's where talks remain stuck. Trilateral talks among Russia, Ukraine and the US could resume this week with the Trump administration combining economic incentives and financial pressures in a continuing effort to move Moscow toward a settlement. All right, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, media tycoon Jimmy Lai is handed what amounts to a death sentence as Beijing tightens its kung fu like grip on Hong Kong. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now let me ask you a question. When was the last time that you woke up actually feeling rested? You know what I'm talking about? Really? When was that? Or maybe when was the last time you got through a day without feeling totally stressed out? You know what that's like. Come on. 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Now, if you're not familiar with Jimmy Lai, he was the founder of Apple Daily that was once Hong Kong's most outspoken pro democracy newspaper. And he was a frequent critic of the Chinese Communist Party. His conviction falls under Beijing's sweeping National Security Law imposed on Hong Kong back in 2020. Lai was found guilty of charges including colluding with foreign forces and publishing what authorities labeled seditious material, charges that stemmed directly from his journalism. His political views and his support for Hong Kong's protest movement. Lai has been behind bars since late 2020, much of that time in solitary confinement while Beijing systematically dismantled his media empire. Apple Daily was shuttered, its assets frozen, its journalists arrested or forced into exile. What once stood as a symbol of Hong Kong's free press was erased almost overnight. In reality, though, this case is about far more than one man. For decades, Hong Kong was promised a high degree of autonomy under the one country, two system framework. Beijing pledged that the city's freedoms, speech, press, assembly and an independent judiciary would remain intact for 50 years after the handover that took place in 1997. That promise is, of course, broken. Jimmy Lai's sentence confirms what has been clear for years. Dissent in Hong Kong is no longer tolerated. Journalism critical of the state is treated as a crime, and loyalty to the Communist Party is the only acceptable political position. Courts now operate within the boundaries set by Beijing, not by the rule of law that Hong Kong once prided itself on. The message to the rest of the city is unmistakable. If one of Hong Kong's most prominent figures, with international recognition and global attention, can be silenced and imprisoned, then anyone is fair game. And the implications stretch far beyond Hong Kong. This is the future that Taiwan believes it will have if it is ever forced back under Beijing's control. Hong Kong was once held up by Chinese officials as a model proof that reunification could coexist with freedom. Instead, it has become a warning. Autonomy in Beijing's hands is temporary, promises are empty, and dissent is always eventually crushed. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 10th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and of course, the entire PDB staff would be most grateful if you take a minute to check out our YouTube channel that, not surprisingly, is on YouTube. Just search up at President's Daily Brief if you like what you see, and hopefully you will, please hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the BDB Afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.