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The President's Daily Brief
February 13th, 2026: Japan and the Philippines Named as China's Next Targets & Trump Ends Minnesota Operation
00:26:13
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It's Friday, the 13th of February. Oh, well, that's, I suppose superstitious is for some. And also in some parts of the world. Tomorrow is Valentine's Day, so try to remember that. Fellas, make sure you pay attention to that special someone. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Taiwan's president says that if China takes Taiwan, it won't stop there. With Beijing warning Washington over arms sales will examine whether Taiwan is the objective or just the first move. Later in the show, the Trump administration says it's ending its immigration enforcement surge. In Minnesota, we'll look at why officials say the operation is winding down. Plus, is Kim Jong Un's daughter about to break the glass ceiling? South Korea's spy agency says she may be positioned as North Korea's next leader. And in today's back of the brief, a sign of the bizarre times that we live in. Israeli reservists are accused of using classified information to place bets on military strikes through the prediction platform Polymarket. But first, today's BDB Spotlight. We're starting things off today with a recent statement from Taiwan's president, who's sending a warning that goes well beyond the fate of his own nation. President Lai Ching Te says that if Beijing were to seize Taiwan, China's ambitions would not stop there. In an interview this week with afp, Lai named Japan and the Philippines as potential next targets, arguing that a successful annexation would embolden Beijing and undermine stability across the Indo Pacific, with ripple effects eventually reaching Europe and even the Americas. As he put it, if Taiwan were annexed by China, China's expansionist ambitions would not stop there. Now, that's a significant statement and one that's unlikely to sit well in Beijing. And Lai isn't just talking. He's backing it with money, pushing for roughly $40 billion in additional defense funding to strengthen Taiwan's deterrence posture. The strategy is clear. Raise the cost of invasion high enough that Beijing decides against it. Now, as Taipei pushes for more American weapons, Beijing is pushing back. During a recent call with President Trump, Xi Jinping warned the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan with what he described as extreme caution, calling the issue the most sensitive point in US China relations. So that puts Washington in a rather unique predicament. Continue arming Taiwan and risk escalating tensions with Beijing, or slow down and risk weakening Taiwan's deterrence at precisely the moment that its leadership says the threat is growing. Now, Lai's warning could sound like overheated rhetoric to some, but expanding the scope of the threat beyond Taiwan strengthens the case for sustained Western military backing, a communication strategy that has worked effectively for Ukraine's President Zelensky. But it does raise a deeper question. Does China see Taiwan's reunification as its endgame, or is it just the opening move? I'm not presenting this as official Communist Party doctrine, of course, but in 2021 a widely circulated Chinese op ed laid out what was called a Six wars pathway and was a long term sequence of territorial confrontations aimed at what the author described as restoring China's historical position. So what did that roadmap envision? Well, I'm glad you asked. The first target is Taiwan. In the op ed's framing, unification is not a question of if but when, and force remains an acceptable option. If that peaceful integration fails, the author argues that a decisive campaign would reassert Beijing's authority and fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, sending a message that outside intervention cannot reverse China's rise. Next, the South China Sea. After Taiwan, the focus shifts south, consolidating control over disputed island chains like the Spratlys and reinforcing maritime claims that Beijing already backs with coast guard patrols and artificial islands and military installations. The theory is that once Taiwan falls, Southeast Asian claimants would be less inclined to resist, calculating that Washington might hesitate to confront China again so soon after a major conflict. Third is what Beijing calls southern Tibet that refers to India's Arunachal Pradesh. That's territory that China claims but New Delhi administers. The piece speculates that Beijing could take advantage of regional instability or even heightened India Pakistan tensions to shift the balance along their contested Himalayan border, an area that's already seen deadly clashes in recent years. Fourth is the Senkaku Islands, known in China as Diaoyu. These islands are administered by Japan and fall under the U.S. japan Security Treaty, meaning any military action there could immediately involve the us. In the op ed's telling, a short, decisive conflict would test alliance resolve and potentially fracture the regional security architecture that's defined the Indo Pacific for decades. Fifth is Mongolia. Here the argument leans heavily on historical narrative, invoking Qing era borders and the idea that Mongolia's independence represents unfinished business from a period of national weakness. It's less about imminent conflict and more about long term leverage. The assumption being that by mid century, China's economic and military dominance would make resistance increasingly difficult. And finally, Russia's Far East. The piece even References 19th century Unequal treaties that transferred vast territory to the Russian empire during a period of Qing decline, while modern Beijing maintains a strategic partnership with Moscow. Of course, the inclusion of Russia in the list goes to a broader theme, that historical grievances are not permanently settled. Now, just to be clear, this was an opinion piece, not a government white paper. And there's no public evidence that Beijing has officially adopted such a timeline. But here's the reason that it's worth paying attention to. When you look at China's current behavior. Expanding naval operations around Taiwan, pressuring the Philippines in the South China Sea, maintaining friction along the Indian border, accelerating military modernization goals tied to 2027 and 2035. The broader question becomes harder to dismiss. Is Taiwan the outer boundary of Beijing's ambitions or part of a larger regional reshaping? From Beijing's perspective, Taiwan is an internal matter. Unfinished civil war business. That's the official line. But from Taipei's perspective, and increasingly from Tokyo and Manila, Taiwan is the front line of a much larger strategic contest. All right, coming up next, the Trump administration winds down its immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota. And new intelligence suggests that Kim Jong Un may be grooming his daughter to extend his family's rule into a fourth generation. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, after the holidays, you remember those, right? I was completely knocked off my routine. All the travel, all that extra food, it was a mess. But I decided to get back into my health routine and to do that in part. Well, I count on Bubs Naturals. That's right, Bubs. Just like it sounds. Bubs Naturals. And, you know, in part, as, as you get older, as we're all doing well, I. I feel like it's really made a difference in terms of joints and recovery. So getting back on track. Yeah. I've been working with Bubs Naturals, and it's an easy daily habit that helps support your joints and your hair, even your skin and nails, all the things that start changing as coll naturally declines. Did you know that you start losing Collagen after your 20s? So I mix it into my morning coffee. There's no taste, there's no fuss. It's very simple. I love what the brand stands for, too. Bubs honors Navy Seal Glenn Bub Daugherty and donates 10% of profits to charity. It's clean, ingredients third party tested, and it's built with purpose. Live better, longer. For a limited time only, PDB listeners are getting 20% off at Bubs Naturals by using the code PDB at checkout. Just head on over to BubsNaturals.com and use code BDB and you're all set. And after you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Do me a favor, tell them the PDB sent you.
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Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you likely know me as the host of the President's Daily Brief, but I'm also quite the expert on gift giving for Valentine's Day.
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It's true.
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I'm constantly fielding questions like, Mike, what should I get my wife or girlfriend for Valentine's Day? Yeah, I'm a bit like Delilah, really. Constantly helping folks improve their relationships. So you may ask, Mike, what are you getting the amazing Mrs. Baker for Valentine's Day? Well, besides flowers and a witty card and of course, her favorite bottle of bourbon, the go to stop is Cozy Earth. It's right there in the name Cozy.
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That's what they are all about.
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It's that simple. Now, if you haven't been shopping at Cozy Earth, I really have no idea what you've been doing with your time. For instance, their bamboo pajama set. Look, it's a total sleep upgrade. It's lightweight, but cozy. There's that word again. And ridiculously soft. The fabric is actually cooler than cotton, so you fall asleep faster and you stay comfortable all night long.
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Or get this.
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Imagine you're a special someone relaxing on the sofa underneath Cozy Earth's classic cuddle blanket. I mean, come on, with a name like that, Classic cuddle blanket, you're halfway to shenanigans already. Or at least a. Well, a cozy, relaxing time on the sofa.
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Whichever.
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Welcome back to the pdb. What began in late November as a federal immigration surge is now entering its final phase. After months of sustained enforcement in Minneapolis, the Trump administration announced that Operation Metro surge is winding down. Now, to understand what's coming to an end, you have to go back to how this began. On 29 November, the administration deployed more than 3,000 immigration agents to the Twin Cities. Before that surge, just 150 federal immigration agents had been operating in the city. It was a dramatic expansion, of course, of federal presence in a city of about 400,000 people with only about 600 police officers. And then, well, there are the arrest numbers. According to the Department of Homeland Security, DHS immigration officers and agents arrested over 4,000 undocumented immigrants since the operation kicked off. Although DHS has not provided a breakdown of how many of those faced criminal charges, the scope of enforcement is apparent. In addition to those arrests, more than 200 people were taken into custody for allegedly impeding federal law enforcement operations. Trump administration officials said the enforcement gains, combined with improved coordination with Minnesota county jails and local law enforcement, reduced the need for such a large federal footprint. Speaking at a news conference in Minneapolis, border czar Tom Homan said the cooperation made it easy for federal authorities to identify and apprehend targets. Homan said, quote, I've proposed, and President Trump has concurred that this surge operation conclude, end quote. So what can we expect next in the Twin Cities? Well, in practical terms, Homan's announcement means a significant drawdown is underway and will continue into next week. He said he'll remain on the ground, quote, for a little longer to oversee that transition. Last week, he announced that 700 agents would be sent home as part of the reduction. But Homan was clear about one point. The end of the surge does not mean the end of enforcement. He said, quote, if you're in this country illegally, you're not off the table, adding that not all federal officers would be removed, citing safety reasons. Now, as we covered here on the pdb, federal authorities shot and killed two US Citizens during separate confrontations during the course of this surge. 37 year old would ain't good. And 37 year old Alex Pretty, DHS said good, quote, weaponized her vehicle and attempted to run over an officer in what it described as a, quote, act of terrorism, prompting an ICE agent to fire three shots. But Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry described the federal accounts as, quote, garbage. In Prezi's case, he became involved in a confrontation with federal agents while recording with his phone. When DHS claimed he quote, brandished a weapon, forcing agents to fire, quote, defensive shots. Now, video of that incident taken from several different angles by bystanders calls into question the government's version of events. A federal civil rights investigation led by the FBI is underway into the incident with Pretty all right, I want to turn to the Korean Peninsula, where new intelligence suggests Pyongyang is likely preparing for life after Kim Jong Un. And his successor could be his daughter. South Korea's spy agency says the regime appears to be positioning her as the next link in a four generation dynasty. Seoul's National Intelligence Service, or nis, but delivered this update in a closed door briefing to lawmakers on Thursday, just weeks before a major workers party congress in Pyongyang. And these regime gatherings aren't routine political meetings. They're tightly scripted events where Kim lays out his agenda for the next five years and reinforces control over the system built by his father and grandfather. Now, NIS officials will be watching for something very specific, whether Kim's daughter, who is about 13 years old and widely believed to be named Kim Ju A, appears alongside him before party delegates in North Korea. That kind of public positioning isn't random. Who stands next to the leader and how often they appear is carefully choreographed. A prominent role at this congress would likely signal that long term leadership planning for Pyongyang is already underway. And we've seen a pattern building. Kim Ju A first appeared publicly in November of 2022, not at a school event or cultural ceremony, but it a strategic long range missile test. Isn't that what all kids love to do? Since then, she's accompanied by her father to weapons demonstrations, military parades and factory inspections, the kind of events that are central to the regime's messaging. Last September, she traveled with him to Beijing for his first summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in six years. That appearance especially stood out, and speculation intensified again last month when she joined her parents on a New Year's Day visit to Pyongyang's palace of the Sun Mausoleum, where Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il lie in state. In North Korea's political culture, that site represents the lineage of power, so her presence there alongside her father is worth noting. Now. South Korean officials initially doubted whether a daughter could even inherit power in a system that has since 1948 passed leadership from father to son. However, her increasingly prominent role in state events has prompted a reassessment. In an earlier briefing, the NIS said Kim's decision to bring her to China appeared to be part of a broader effort to shape a narrative around her future leadership. In this latest update, officials pointed to her presence at symbolic family ceremonies and cited signs that Kim Jong Un has even begun seeking her input on certain policy matters. At the same time, much about her remains opaque. North Korean state media has never publicly named her, referring only to Kim's respected or most beloved child. So you may be asking, where did we even learn about her name? It came somewhat improbably, from former NBA star Dennis Rodman. Yes. Who said he held Kim's baby daughter during a 2013 visit to Pyongyang. Now, for those of you unfamiliar, Rodman made multiple trips to North Korea around that time and described Kim as a personal friend in what could be described, at the very least, as an odd relationship. So thanks to the five time NBA champion, we have an idea of who she is and she may not be Kim's only child. In 2023, the NIS told lawmakers that Kim and his wife likely have an older son and younger third child whose gender remains unknown, so the internal family dynamics still remain unclear. It's also important context that Kim Jong Un himself was only 26 years old when he was designated the next new leader in 2010. Two, his father suffered a stroke. When Kim Jong il died in 2011, Kim assumed power with limited preparation. So it's believed that his own personal experience may be shaping how early he's introducing his own potential successor. So what should we watch for next? Well, the upcoming party congress could offer subtle clues. Party rules require members to be at least 18 years old, so it is unlikely that she would immediately receive a formal title. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the brief, a troubling breach of operational security. Israeli reservists allegedly used classified information to place bets on military actions. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I spend a lot of time on the road, right? So I fancy myself a bit of an expert on travel and luggage. And I want to tell you about a great company out there making terrific luggage. And that would be Noble Travel. N O B L Noble Travel. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we turn to Israel, where authorities have charged an army reservist and a civilian with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on future Israeli military strikes through an online prediction market. Prosecutors disclosed Thursday that the reservist accessed sensitive operational details through his military service and used that information to wager on outcomes related to Israeli military action on the platform. Polymarket, the civilian defendant is accused of participating in the scheme and helping place some of the bets, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal. Israeli authorities alleged the bets centered on the timing and likelihood of specific military operations, allowing the pair to potentially profit from advanced knowledge of classified plans. The indictment was reportedly filed in a Tel Aviv court after an investigation involving Israel's Shenbet Security Service. Military officials and also national police officials have not publicly detailed the precise nature of the operations referenced in the indictment or revealed the identities of the accused, but the pair are charged with committing serious security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice. It's worth noting, however, that the arrest followed reports in Israeli media that Shin Bet had been investigating a series of polymarket wagers last year connected to speculation over when Israel might launch an attack on Iran ahead of the 12 day war, including which day or month an operation might begin and when it would conclude. Prosecutors have not explicitly stated whether these arrests relate to that investigation, but said the case represents a serious breach of operational security during a period of ongoing regional tension. The Israel Defense Forces, in its own response, stressed that no operational harm was caused in this specific incident, but strongly condemned the behavior, calling it a grave ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line. An IDF statement said disciplinary action would be taken against anyone found guilty and that measures are being taken across all IDF units to prevent similar cases from recurring now. Beyond the criminal charges themselves, the case highlights a modern vulnerability in wartime information security. Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to wager money on real world events, from elections and economic data releases to geopolitical developments. Their platforms operate legally in many jurisdictions outside the US and their odds can shift rapidly based on emerging news. But in a wartime context, those markets can also create a financial incentive to exploit inside knowledge, or worse, to leak or manipulate sensitive information. Israeli prosecutors argue that even the act of placing such bets risks exposing the timing of operations or signaling to foreign observers that specific actions may be imminent. In intelligence terms, unusual betting activity tied to military questions could itself become a form of unintended disclosure. So while the case does not suggest that broader Israeli operational plans were compromised at scale, it does underscore how digital markets and instant global information flows have created new terrain for insider threats, terrain that military institutions built around traditional secrecy models are struggling to adapt to. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 13th February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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