The President's Daily Brief – February 16th, 2026

Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief, The First TV

Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers an incisive overview of major current national security and geopolitical events. The top focuses include preparations for potential weeks-long U.S. military operations against Iran; the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group; the UK’s announcement of an Arctic naval deployment to counter Russian expansion; new evidence in the poisoning death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and the Pentagon’s integration of artificial intelligence during the raid that captured Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Baker draws on official statements, breaking news, and his signature blend of acerbic commentary to interpret the implications for American interests.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Military Planning for Weeks-Long Iran Operation

[00:42 – 06:40]

• New Intelligence & Strategic Shift:

  • Citing a Reuters report, Baker details that the Pentagon is planning for a "potentially weeks-long military operation against Iran," a substantial escalation in scope and risk from the "Midnight Hammer" airstrikes on nuclear sites last year.
  • Target sets include not just nuclear infrastructure, but also "Iranian state and security facilities."

• Regional Dynamics & Risk Assessment:

  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that "any strike on Iranian territory would trigger attacks on US bases across the region" including Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Turkey.
  • The newly deployed USS Gerald R. Ford, with its advanced airwing (F/A-18 fighters, EA-18G Growlers), signals U.S. readiness for contested airspace operations.

• No Boots on Ground:

  • “Notably absent from the conversation so far would be ground troops," highlighting the administration’s aversion to a ground campaign. Baker notes, "President Trump has long expressed skepticism about putting American boots on the ground in Iran" ([05:48]).

• Presidential Rhetoric:

  • President Trump publicly floated the idea of "regime change in Tehran, saying, quote, 'seems like that would be the best thing that could happen'" ([06:02]).

• Dueling Tracks: Force and Diplomacy:

  • New nuclear talks in Geneva are underway, mediated by Oman. The administration insists that "Iran cannot retain any uranium enrichment capability," a demand Tehran rejects.
  • “Before last year's conflict, Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity...a short technical step from weapons grade” ([06:38]).

• Regional War Concerns:

  • Gulf Arab states are warning that any strike "could spiral into a broader regional war."
  • Baker’s signature irony appears: "For that I award myself today’s PDB statement of the obvious award. And U.S. Officials reportedly expect Iran to retaliate. Oh, there’s another statement of the obvious award." ([03:53])

2. UK’s Arctic Carrier Strike Group Deployment

[09:19 – 11:56]

• Strategic Purpose:

  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deployment of HMS Prince of Wales and an aircraft carrier group to the Arctic “High North,” calling Russia’s buildup there a rising threat.
  • The mission is a “visible show of allied coordination in a region that's becoming increasingly contested.”

• “Hard Power” Doctrine:

  • Starmer underscored the necessity to “build our hard power because that is the currency of the age” ([10:31]).

• Alignment with US Priorities:

  • The deployment aligns with President Trump’s renewed emphasis on the Arctic (notably, Trump’s continuing obsession with Greenland for national security).
  • Trump called Greenland "vital to national security, a strategic necessity as Russia attempts to fortify its Arctic sea lanes” ([11:04]).

• NATO Burden Sharing:

  • Trump claimed, "If it wasn't for me, NATO countries would be paying 2% and not paying. They're paying 5% now and they are paying. We have a very good relationship with NATO." ([11:10])

3. Alexei Navalny’s Death: Confirmed Poisoning by Rare Neurotoxin

[11:58 – 14:49]

• Revelations from European Labs:

  • European governments (UK, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands) confirm Navalny was killed with “epibatidine, a powerful toxin derived from [South American] poison dart frogs.”

• Kremlin’s Consistent Denial:

  • Baker wryly recounts, “When I say mysterious, what I mean is not so much who killed him, that would be Vladimir Putin’s minions. The mystery wasn’t exactly how he was killed...” ([12:01])
  • Russian officials maintain the death was due to natural causes, labeling Western accusations “propaganda” and a “political pageant.”

• Pattern of Chemical Attacks:

  • Recap of prior poisoning attempts on Navalny (Novichok in 2020) and other dissidents (Litvinenko, Skripal).
  • “If the FSB were truly behind the attack, it, quote, 'would have finished the job like we did with the other dissidents and opposition.' I added that last part of the quote.” ([14:04])

• International & Personal Reactions:

  • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio describes findings as “troubling,” signaling alignment with Europe.
  • Navalny's widow at the Munich conference: “‘Putin killed Alexei with a chemical weapon.’ She later posted on X that, ‘Putin is a murderer. He must be held accountable for all his crimes’” ([14:32]).
  • European governments formally accuse Russia of a “breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention.”

4. Back of the Brief: Pentagon’s Use of AI in Military Operations

[18:53 – 22:55]

• Operation Absolute Resolve – Maduro Capture:

  • New details reveal the Pentagon’s use of Anthropic’s AI model “Claude” (via Palantir) during the mission to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

• How AI Was Used:

  • Precise uses remain classified, but “Claude was deployed through Palantir’s architecture...operating inside the digital backbone of modern military decision making.”
  • Anthropic’s public usage policy prohibits use of Claude for “violence, weapons, or surveillance,” raising ethical questions about the partnership.

• Contract and Strategic Competition:

  • Anthropic is the first AI company with a Pentagon contract (worth up to $200 million) to advance military AI.
  • “At the center of that debate is the fundamental question, who decides how far military AI can go?” ([21:50])
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: “the Pentagon would not employ AI models that won't allow you to fight wars” ([22:20]).

• Big Picture Takeaway:

  • “The reported use of Claude in Operation Absolute Resolve suggests the era of theoretical military AI is ending. The battlefield has become data driven, software integrated and increasingly algorithmic, even as terms of service agreements slow full implementation” ([22:37]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US-Iran Escalation:

  “That dramatically expands the scope and the risk. And for that I award myself today’s PDB statement of the obvious award.”
  — Mike Baker ([03:42])

• On US Ground Troops in Iran:

  “Notably absent from the conversation so far would be ground troops. Now, President Trump has long expressed skepticism about putting American boots on the ground in Iran.”
  — Mike Baker ([05:48])

• On Increased Hard Power:

  “We must build our hard power because that is the currency of the age.”
  — UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (as recounted by Baker, [10:31])

• On Greenland’s Strategic Value:

  “Greenland is vital to national security, a strategic necessity as Russia attempts to fortify its Arctic sea lanes.”
  — President Trump (as quoted by Baker, [11:04])

• On Navalny’s Killing:

  “Putin killed Alexei with a chemical weapon. He must be held accountable for all his crimes.”
  — Navalny’s widow at the Munich Security Conference ([14:32])

• On AI’s Role in Future Warfare:

  “Who decides how far military AI can go?”
  — Mike Baker ([21:50])

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:42] — US/Iran Military Planning & Carrier Deployment
• [09:19] — UK Carrier Deployment to Arctic, Allied Coordination
• [11:58] — Alexei Navalny’s Death: Poisoning Confirmed
• [18:53] — “Back of the Brief”: AI in Pentagon Operations – Claude & Palantir

Tone and Style

Baker delivers information with a blend of sharp analysis, dry humor, and informed cynicism. He is skeptical of both official narratives and adversarial denials, favoring a pragmatic, at times sardonic, read of global events. His language is direct and vivid, aiming to arm listeners “with what you need to know to help solve America’s most pressing challenges.”

This summary captures the full sweep, clarity, and commentary style of Mike Baker’s briefing, ensuring listeners or readers are abreast of the intersection between military maneuvering, geopolitical intrigue, and the rapid advance of emergent technologies in national defense.