← The President's Daily Brief
The President's Daily Brief
February 16th, 2026: US Military Plans Weeks-Long Iran Ops & Arctic Carrier Deployment
00:24:48
Loading summary
Transcript9 lines
- [00:00]
Mint Mobile Advertiser
Well, the holidays have come and gone once again. But if you've forgotten to get that special someone in your life a gift. Well, Mint Mobile is extending their holiday offer of half off unlimited wireless. So here's the idea. You get it now, you call it an early present for next year.
- [00:15]
Mike Baker
What do you have to lose?
- [00:16]
Mint Mobile Advertiser
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch limited time.
- [00:20]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
50% off regular price for new customers. Upfront payment required $45 for three months, $90 for six month or $180 for 12 month plan taxes and fees. Extra speeds may slow after 50 gigabytes per month when network is busy see terms.
- [00:43]
Mike Baker
It's Monday 16th February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a new report says the U. S. Military is preparing for a potentially weeks long operation against Iran as President Trump deploys another aircraft carrier to the region. I'll have the details later in the show. In what's likely a nod to President Trump, Britain announces it's sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the Arctic, citing a growing Russian threat. Plus, European officials say Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was killed with a rare toxin derived from South American poisoned dart frogs, accusing the Kremlin of orchestrating his death. Well, because. Well, because they did orchestrate his death. And in today's back of the brief, in the latest sign of artificial intelligence's growing role on the battlefield, the Pentagon reportedly used AI during the raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. But first, today's PDP spotlight. A new report from Reuters suggests that the US Military is preparing for something far more prolonged against Iran than the limited strike against its nuclear sites that we saw last year. According to two US Officials speaking anonymously, the Pentagon is drawing up plans for a potentially weeks long military operation against Iran. Not a one night strike, but a sustained campaign should the White House give the order. Last year's so called Midnight Hammer operation involved stealth bombers flying from the US to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. It was precise, it was limited, and it was over quickly. Iran responded with a restrained retaliatory strike on a US Base in Qatar and both sides then stepped back. This time officials say the planning is more complex. A sustained campaign could target not only nuclear infrastructure but Iranian state and security facilities as well. That dramatically expands the scope and the risk. And for that I award myself today's PDB statement of the obvious award. And US Officials reportedly expect Iran to retaliate. Oh there's another statement of the obvious award. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already warned that any strike on Iranian territory would trigger attacks on US Military bases across the region, and there are plenty of them there in Jordan and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. That's where the force buildup becomes important. As we reported on Friday, it's now been confirmed that the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, is being deployed to the Middle East. The Ford is fresh off operations related to Venezuela, and while it's not yet clear which escort ships will accompany it, the carrier itself brings considerable firepower. Its air wing includes four squadrons of F A18 fighters, multirole aircraft capable of air superiority, precision strikes and maritime attacks, along with A squadron of EA 18G growlers, specialized electronic warfare jets designed to jam enemy radar and suppress air defenses. That air wing is engineered for contested airspace. It's what you deploy when you expect sophisticated missile systems and layered defenses. However, notably absent from the conversation so far would be ground troops. Now, President Trump has long expressed skepticism about putting American boots on the ground in Iran. The current posture suggests any action would rely heavily on air and naval and potentially special operations capabilities that would align with how the administration handled Venezuela, using targeted force rather than anything resembling a large scale occupation. And the rhetoric has also escalated. Speaking at Fort Bragg, President Trump openly floated the idea of regime change in Tehran, saying it, quote, seems like that would be the best thing that could happen. He did not specify who would replace the current leadership, but he made clear that in his view, the status quo has run its course. Meanwhile, Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, told Reuters that U.S. military intervention could accelerate the regime's collapse. He argues that the clerical government is already weakened internally and that outside pressure could tip it over the edge. But while military planning accelerates on another track, diplomacy continues. Iran and the US Are set to hold another round of nuclear talks in Geneva next week, with Oman acting as mediator. The first round took place on 6 February. The Trump administration has maintained that Iran cannot retain any uranium enrichment capability under a new deal. Tehran has flatly rejected that demand, insisting its nuclear program is peaceful and that it will not give up enrichment entirely. Before last year's conflict, Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity. Now, that's a short technical step from weapons grade levels, and it's far above the 3 to 5% needed for any peaceful use. Complicating matters further, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable for months to fully inspect and verify Iran's nuclear stockpile. President Trump has warned that failure to reach an agreement would be very traumatic. Gulf Arab states, meanwhile, caution that any strike could spiral into a broader regional war. So here we are. On one track, aircraft carriers, strike fighters, electronic warfare jets, and contingency plans for sustained operations. On the other, negotiators heading to Geneva trying to hammer out a nuclear agreement. All right, coming up next, Britain dispatches an aircraft carrier strike group to the Arctic. And European investigators say a rare toxin derived from poison dart frogs was used to kill Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you likely know me as the host of the President's Daily Brief. Well, I mean, hopefully you know me as the PDB host, but I'm also quite the expert on romance and gift giving. Did you know that? It's true. I'm constantly fielding questions like, Mike, what should I get my wife or girlfriend to show that I care? I'm a bit like Delilah, constantly helping folks improve their relationships. So when you want to show a little love to that special someone, here's what I suggest. The go to stop is Cozy Earth. Look, it's right there in the name Cozy. That's what they're all about. If you haven't been shopping at Cozy Earth, frankly, I have no idea what you're doing with your time. For instance, their bamboo pajamas set. Check this out. It's a total sleep upgrade. Lightweight, but cozy. There's that word again. And ridiculously soft. The fabric is actually cooler than cotton, so you fall asleep faster and you stay comfortable all night long. Or get this. Imagine you're a special someone relaxing on the sofa underneath Cozy Earth's classic cuddle blanket. Come on. Like with a name like that, you're halfway to shenanigans already. Or at least a cozy relaxing time on the sofa. Whichever. It's richly plush with just the right comforting weight. Warm, indulgent, and instantly relaxing. What really sets Cozy Earth apart is how risk free it is. You get a 100 night sleep trial and get this, a 10 year warranty. Come on, share a little extra love this February and wrap yourself or someone you care about in comfort that truly feels special. Head on over to cozyearth.com and use my code PDB for up to 20% off. That's code PDB for up to 20 percent off. And if you get a post purchase survey, be sure to mention you heard about Cozy Earth right here on the pdb. Celebrate every day with comfort that makes the little moments, and those big moments count. Welcome back to the pdb. As Russia expands its military footprint across the Arctic, it is now drawing the attention of the United Kingdom. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says a UK carrier strike group will deploy to the North Atlantic and High north sometime later this year. Starmer made the announcement at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, the annual forum where Western leaders outline their strategic priorities and signal shifts in defense posture. He said the deployment will be led by the HMS Prince of Wales and operate alongside the US Canada and other NATO allies in what will be a visible show of allied coordination in a region that's becoming increasingly contested. The area referred to as the High north, as we've been tracking here on the pdb, is essentially the Arctic and its surrounding waters, and it's no longer just a frozen backwater. Starmer made clear he doesn't believe that Russia's military buildup will slow, even if the war in Ukraine does come to an end. In fact, he warned the Kremlin's military presence could only accelerate. The Prime Minister argues that Europe must be prepared to deter aggression and if necessary, fight, saying, we must build our hard power because that is the currency of the age. That line about hard power tells you exactly how London views this moment. The British carrier strike group, centered on the HMS Prince of Wales, which is the Royal Navy's roughly $3.5 billion flagship, will include 40 aircraft, along with a frigate, a destroyer, a submarine and supply vessels. The announcement dovetails with President Trump's renewed focus on Arctic security and, of course, on Greenland. Trump has repeatedly made the case that Greenland is vital to national security, a strategic necessity as Russia attempts to fortify its Arctic sea lanes. Trump has framed the issue not solely as a real estate transaction, but as strategic positioning in an era of great power competition. Speaking outside the White House, Trump confirmed Washington is, quote, negotiating right now for Greenland. He also highlighted NATO burden sharing, something he's pushed for years. The President told reporters, quote, if it wasn't for me, NATO countries would be paying 2% and not paying. They're paying 5% now and they are paying. We have a very good relationship with NATO, end quote. His statement comes amid a media whirlwind citing US Ambitions for Greenland as merely a territorial power grab and detrimental for European and NATO relations nations. Now, that one sided narrative does, in fact ignore the very real security interests of the U.S. and its allies in the region, particularly as Moscow militarily reinforces its northern frontier. Now, I want to turn your attention to a story that's Faded from the headlines. That would be the mysterious death two years ago of the imprisoned Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Now, when I say mysterious, what I mean is not so much who killed him, that would be Vladimir Putin's minions. The mystery wasn't exactly how he was killed. When Russia's most prominent opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, collapsed in a remote prison colony, Moscow blamed illness. And for two years, the Kremlin has maintained that fiction. But European capitals now say lab tests confirm he was killed with a rare toxin from poison dart frogs. According to five European governments, which include the United Kingdom, Sweden, France, Germany and the Netherlands. Recent laboratory analysis of Navalny's remains identified epibutidine, a powerful toxin derived from the amphibian native to South America. For background, Epibodyne is an extremely potent neurotoxin. It's a very small dose, can disrupt the nervous system and breathing. The European governments did not specify how the toxin was administered, only that Navalny was in custody at a penal colony north of the Arctic Circle at the time. The capitals do conclude, however, that Moscow had the means, the motive and opportunity to administer the poison. Of course, the latest report directly contradicts the Kremlin's original account. When Navalny died In February of 2024, Russia's prison service said he felt unwell, oh, after a walk, and almost immediately lost consciousness. In Moscow's account, there's no mention of any toxins or suggestions of foul play. Well, that is shocking. I mean, after all those other poisonings by the Kremlin of disadvant and opposition figures like Alex Litvinenko and Sergey Skripal and others, the Kremlin always admitted it was their doing, it was their foul play. Oh, wait, no, no, no, they didn't. I'm sorry. Now, as you may recall, Navalny was no obscure inmate or opposition figure. He was Putin's most prominent political opponent. A figure who organized a nationwide protests and published investigations alleging corruption at the highest levels of the state. He'd already survived one poisoning attempt back in 2020, when he was struck with novichok, a Soviet era nerve agent, and was evacuated to Germany for treatment. A later investigation by CNN and the investigative journalism group of Bellingcat linked the attack to operatives of Russia's Federal Security Service, or the fsb. As you can assume, the Kremlin denied involvement in that as well. Putin at the time said if the FSB were truly behind the attack, it, quote, would have finished the job like we did with the other dissidents and opposition. I added that last part of the quote. Still, this latest allegation fits into an existing record of chemical agent accusations surrounding Navalny. And when it comes to the US's response to the latest findings, Washington is not disputing the report. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the findings as, quote, troubling, saying the Trump administration is aware of the conclusions and would not challenge them publicly, siding with the five European governments. Moscow, meanwhile, and here this will surprise you, has dismissed the claims outright. Russian state news agency Tass quoted the country's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman calling the findings, quote, propaganda. The Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom labeled the announcement, quote, a political pageant, accusing Western governments of manufacturing accusations against the Kremlin. I also want to highlight that the timing of the latest European findings is notable. The announcement came during the Munich Security Conference, the same venue where Navalny's death was first announced two years ago. Speaking there again over the weekend, his widow said she had been certain from the beginning that he was poisoned. And there was now proof stating, quote, putin killed Alexei with a chemical weapon. She later posted on X that, quote, putin is a murderer. He must be held accountable for all his crimes. The five European governments have formally written to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons describing Navalny's death as a, quote, Russian breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention, end quote. Well, okay, then that should change the Kremlin's ways. When all else fails, a harshly worded memo usually does the trick. All right, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, new reports reveal the Pentagon used artificial intelligence during the raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. So it's 2026. Well, you knew that. And New Year new you, right? Isn't that the old saying? But what do you do if you're not sleeping well or if recovery after work or a workout is harder? Or maybe stress is just out of hand? Maybe you try to stay clear headed with caffeine. A lot of folks do that or even stuff like nicotine pouches, but those mess with sleep and they raise cortisol. Ultra pouches, however, well, they're different completely. Nicotine and caffeine free, packed with natural nootropics to give you steady, clean focus, smooth energy and enhanced mental clarity. There's no buzz, there's no crash. And none of those side effects that can spike your heart rate. Just better sleep and workouts and a calmer mind. Athletes, entrepreneurs and engineers trust ultra to keep them sharp. Ultra is the ultimate guilt free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use code PDB to get 15% off@takeultra.com again that's takeultra.com for 15% off with code PDB. After you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Do me a favor, tell them the PDB sent you. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Look, if you're a homeowner like me, you know that things well never break around the home when it's convenient. You know what I'm talking about. The heat heater conks out in the dead of winter or the AC system gives out in the middle of summer. So here's the thing. We ensure our health and we insure our cars. But our biggest investment often isn't covered for everyday breakdowns. And homeowners insurance, well, usually leaves you paying out of pocket for repairs. That's why I want to thank HomeServe for sponsoring this episode. They offer subscriptions with 24. 7 access to trusted local contractors who handle problems fast. For over 20 years, HomeServe has helped over four and a half million customers. Think about that. They've got a nearly five star post repair rating and HomeServe is a plus rated with a Better Business Bureau. Help protect your home systems and your wallet with HomeServe plans start at just 499amonth. Go to HomeServe.com to find the plan that's right for you. Again, that's homeserve.com HomeServe is not available everywhere. Most plans range between 499 to 1199amonth your first year and terms apply.
- [17:49]
Pharmaceutical Advertiser
Uncovered Repairs Eczema is unpredictable, but you can flare less with epglis, a once monthly treatment for moderate to severe eczema. After an initial four month or longer dosing phase, about four in ten people taking ebglis achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin at 16 weeks. And most of those people maintain skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
- [18:11]
Empglis Lebricizumab LBKZ, a 250mg 2ml injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema asthma, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals or who cannot use topical therapies. EBGLIS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to Ebglis. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Ebglis. Before starting ebglis, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
- [18:45]
Ask your doctor about ebglis and visit ebglis.lily.com or call 1-800-lilyrx or 1-800-545-5979.
- [18:54]
Mike Baker
In today's Back of the Brief it's been over a month since Washington's Operation Absolute Resolve captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, and new details are still emerging about that operation, including the revelation that an artificial intelligence system was used in the raid. According to a Wall Street Journal exclusive report citing people familiar with the matter, Anthropic's artificial intelligence model, claude, was incorporated into the mission. Now, Anthropic, the Silicon Valley AI company behind Claude, has not specified precisely how the model was used during the operation, which, as we've long discussed, included American air power and strikes on multiple sites in Caracas. The report says. The development occurred through Anthropic's partnership with Palantir Technologies, whose software platforms are widely used by the Department of War and federal law enforcement. Palantir builds systems that aggregate massive streams of surveillance and operational data, enabling defense agencies and law enforcement to analyze patterns and coordinate missions in real time. In other words, if CLAUDE was deployed through Palantir's architecture, it would have been operating inside the digital backbone of modern military decision making. Now, here's where things get interesting. Anthropic's public usage policies prohibit CLAUDE from being used to facilitate violence and develop weapons or conduct surveillance. A company spokesman declined to confirm whether the model was used in the operation, stating, quote, we cannot comment on whether Claude or any other AI model was used, classified or otherwise, end quote, adding that any deployment must comply with company policies. The Department of War declined to comment. In the Journal's report following the raid, an Anthropic employee asked a counterpart at Palantir how Claude had been used during the operation, suggesting perhaps internal sensitivity about the deployment. A spokesman later said that Anthropic had not discussed Claude's use in specific operations, quote, with any industrial partners, including Palantir, outside of routine discussions on strictly technical materials, end quote and here's why this matters. Anthropic became the first AI model developer to have its system used in classified Pentagon operations under a contract worth up to $200 million awarded last summer. That contract reflects the Trump administration's push to ensure Washington leads in advanced AI, not just commercially but militarily. That relationship has come under strain. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that administration officials weighed canceling the contract amid disputes over how the model can be used in combat environments. At the center of that debate is the fundamental question, who decides how far military AI can go? Anthropic's leadership advocates for guardrails on advanced AI systems, including restrictions on autonomous lethal uses and domestic surveillance. Those constraints frustrate Department of War officials, including Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who said at a January event that the Pentagon would not employ AI models that won't allow you to fight wars. That philosophy is shaping how the administration approaches AI partnerships as strategic competition with China intensifies and adversaries modernize their own capabilities, Washington signals that it does not intend to fall behind in integrating advanced technology into national defense. So the reported use of CLAUDE in Operation Absolute Resolve suggests the era of theoretical military AI is ending. The battlefield has become data driven, software integrated and increasingly algorithmic, even as terms of service agreements slow full implementation. It's a subject obviously worth keeping an eye on. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Monday 16th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and hopefully had a chance to catch the latest episode of our extended weekend show. That would be the PDB Situation Report. If not, well, don't fret. You can catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. That's at Presidents Daily Brief and on podcast platforms. Wherever you get your podcast stuff, I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. It.