The President’s Daily Brief

Episode Date: February 17th, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)

Episode Overview

This episode of The President’s Daily Brief with Mike Baker focuses on the evolving threat of Russian covert operations in Europe—specifically, the Wagner Group’s new role in orchestrating sabotage inside NATO countries. It also covers the resumption of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva, a major corruption scandal in Ukraine, and closes with the latest developments in the U.S. government’s funding fight over immigration policy leading to a partial shutdown.

Baker delivers the analysis with his characteristic mix of sharp insight, irreverence, and skepticism, particularly towards official narratives and diplomatic “posturing.”

Main Topics & Key Discussion Points

1. Wagner Group’s Evolving Role in Russia’s Shadow War

[00:42–09:12]

• Russia's Covert Campaign in Europe

  • Russia is conducting a “shadow war” in Europe, aiming to create chaos without provoking direct conflict.
  • Tactics include sabotage of rail lines, arson at warehouses, attempted assassinations, cyber intrusions, and influence campaigns.

• Wagner Group’s ‘Comeback’

  • After Wagner’s mutiny and collapse in 2023 and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s assassination, many assumed the group was finished.
  • Baker emphasizes, “Its formal structure was fractured, and many thought the group was essentially finished. But its recruitment networks, propaganda channels and digital infrastructure didn't simply disappear.” [03:49]
  • These digital assets are now allegedly being repurposed by Russian intelligence (FSB) to coordinate sabotage across NATO.

• Recruitment of Non-Traditional Saboteurs (Including Teenagers)

  • Western intelligence says Wagner’s former online channels are being used to remotely recruit not seasoned operatives or ideologues, but civilians and even teenagers.
  • Baker details: “They're seemingly harmless civilians, including teenagers… Contact is made through encrypted messaging apps like Telegram. The initial task is small. Take photos, observe a location. Payment is offered, and sometimes in cryptocurrency. Then the assignments escalate.” [05:10]
  • This approach is:
    • Cheap: Marginalized youths cost less than professional agents.
    • Deniable: Crimes look like random acts, complicating attribution.
    • Scalable: Digital platforms let them recruit widely and discard failed assets without risk.

• Strategic Consequences

  • Russia is “outsourcing sabotage to individuals who may not even fully grasp the strategic game they're participating in.” [07:30]
  • Use of teenagers is “particularly unsettling… easier to manipulate and abandon if they're caught.”
  • Security services face the challenge of tracking not just agents, but online networks, cryptocurrency transactions, and vulnerable communities.

Notable Quote:
"If Wagner once functioned as Moscow’s expeditionary hammer abroad, Wagner 2.0 may now be operating as a digital recruitment engine for low cost sabotage against Putin’s enemies."
— Mike Baker [08:56]

2. Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks in Geneva

[10:42–18:52]

• Resumption of Negotiations

  • Talks between the U.S. and Iran resume in Geneva, with Oman mediating. American participants include Envoy Steve Wytkoff and Jared Kushner.
  • Unlike the JCPOA (2015) which involved several world powers, these are bilateral (with Oman as intermediary).

• Rhetoric and Positions

  • Baker critiques Iran’s posture: “Iran, with apparently a complete lack of self-awareness or irony, says the ball is in America's court to prove that Washington truly wants a deal.” [11:14]
  • Iran demands that sanctions relief be central; the U.S. wants meaningful curbs on enrichment, promises not to enrich uranium to weapons grade, and consideration of Iran’s ballistic missile and proxy programs.

• Realities of Enrichment

  • Iran claims willingness to dilute uranium from 60% to 20%, but Baker points out that “moving back from 20 to 60% and then to weapons grade is a relatively easy lift compared to the initial enrichment effort.” [14:12]
  • A sticking point is whether Iran will ship enriched uranium abroad (as per the original JCPOA).

• Sanctions Relief and Side Deals

  • Iran dangles the prospect of U.S. energy and aviation deals if the nuclear accord is renewed.
  • Baker offers biting skepticism:
    “Let’s sell aircraft to the Iranian regime, maybe buy their oil. I’m sure those revenues... won’t go towards building their weapons programs and resourcing Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis as they always have in the past.” [16:35]

• Diplomatic Backdrop

  • Talks resume after last year’s military escalation—Israeli strikes on Iran, and U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.
  • Tensions remain high: the U.S. reinforces its regional military presence; Iran threatens retaliation against U.S. bases if attacked.

Notable Quotes:

• "Any deal that keeps the current regime in place, gives them sanctions relief, doesn't touch their ballistic missile program, and allows them to keep their enriched uranium stockpiles... well, frankly, all you're doing is putting lipstick on a pig." — Mike Baker [17:25]

3. Ukraine’s Expanding Corruption Probe

[18:52–22:40]

• Former Energy Minister Arrested

  • German Galushenko, former energy (and short-term justice) minister, detained fleeing the country amid a $100M+ corruption investigation (Operation “Midas”).
  • Allegedly imposed kickbacks (10–15%) on state nuclear energy contracts, inflating costs in exchange for bottlenecking bureaucracy and ensuring contracts to compliant suppliers.

• Scope & Impact

  • Case involves critical infrastructure—kickbacks on projects meant to defend the grid from Russian air attacks.
  • Tens of thousands of hours of wiretaps, $112M allegedly siphoned, with $12M traced to Galushenko’s family.
  • Offshore laundering via Anguilla, and links to Timur Mindich, a Zelensky associate, who also fled Ukraine.

• National & International Fallout

  • Ongoing probe raises concerns among Ukraine’s European defense partners, reinforces worries about governance and integrity as the war against Russia continues.

Notable Quote:
"I'm always fascinated by exactly what dollar amount it takes for someone to sell out their country."
— Mike Baker [22:16]

4. U.S. Immigration Funding Stalemate and DHS Partial Shutdown

[25:16–End]

• Homeland Security Shutdown

  • As of the episode’s airdate, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) enters partial shutdown after a short-term funding extension expired amid partisan deadlock over immigration enforcement.
  • All other agencies remain funded; ~90% of DHS staff work unpaid.

• Political Standoff

  • Democrats demand new restrictions on enforcement (e.g., bans on ICE agent masks, judicial warrants for raids), which Republicans and the Trump administration resist.
  • Congress is now on recess until Feb 23rd; a quick resolution is unlikely barring an emergency.

• Broader Dysfunction

  • The shutdown marks the third (at least partial) in six months, highlighting the instability of federal budget processes and broader partisanship.

Notable Quote:
"I should note this marks the third government shutdown, at least partial, in less than six months, underscoring just how unstable the federal funding process has become. Well, and also how dysfunctional Capitol Hill is."
— Mike Baker [26:32]

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Opening tribute to Robert Duvall:
  “Rest in peace to Robert Duvall, the absolute great actor... Incredible. So again, rest in peace, Mr. Robert Duvall.” [00:42]
• Baker’s signature dry humor and asides, e.g., about “PDB Premium” and his personal opinions on cigars and cars.
• Sharp skepticism toward both the Iranian regime’s sincerity and the prospects for a truly effective nuclear deal.

Key Timestamps

• [00:42] — Start of content, Duvall tribute, and headline rundown
• [01:10] — Wagner group shadow war segment opens
• [09:12] — Lead-in to Iran nuclear talks
• [10:42] — Detailed analysis of Iran talks
• [18:52] — Ukraine corruption probe segment
• [25:16] — Homeland Security shutdown segment

Summary Table

| Segment | Start Time | Key Points | |--------------------------------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | Wagner Group’s New Methods | 00:42 | Covert sabotage, use of youth, digital/crypto recruitment | | Iran Nuclear Talks | 10:42 | Geneva negotiations, enrichment levels, sanctions, energy deals | | Ukraine Corruption Case | 18:52 | Ex-minister arrested, $100M+ probe, offshore laundering | | DHS Shutdown | 25:16 | Funding lapses, enforcement deadlock, government dysfunction |

Conclusion

Mike Baker leverages insider perspective to make clear why these headlines matter: destabilizing Russian tactics aimed at NATO, the challenges of containing Iran’s nuclear program and proxies, ongoing vulnerability to corruption in wartime Ukraine, and the paralyzing effect of U.S. partisanship on core security agencies. The tone combines wit, urgency, and world-weariness, making it both an informative and entertaining briefing for national security followers.