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The President's Daily Brief
February 17th, 2026: Wagner Group's Secret Comeback Inside NATO & Iran Talks Resume
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It's Tuesday, the 17th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And if I might say, rip Rest in peace to Robert Duvall, the absolute great actor. Now, look, if all Mr. Duvall had done was Tom Hagen in the first and second Godfather movies and Colonel Kilgore and Apocalypse now and of course, Loathsome Dove, then he would be considered legendary. But he did so much more during his career. Incredible. So again, rest in peace, Mr. Robert Duvall. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Western intelligence says Russia's shadow war inside Europe may be entering a new phase with former Wagner recruitment networks allegedly helping coordinate sabotage operations across NATO states. And in some cases, the recruits include teenagers. I'll have the details later in the show. Talks resume in Geneva as Iran floats potential energy and aviation deals with alongside a renewed nuclear agreement. We'll explain what's on the table and what's not. Plus, Ukraine's former energy minister has been detained after allegedly attempting to flee the country as a sweeping corruption probe expands and reaches into the upper ranks of the Ukrainian government. And in today's back of the brief, a bipartisan funding deal falls apart. No surprise over immigration policy, triggering a partial government shutdown that directly impacts the Department of Homeland Security. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We're starting today by returning to Russia's shadow war inside Europe, something we've been tracking here for quite a while on the pdb. The shadow war is basically Russia's covert effort to create chaos across Europe without triggering open conflict. Its rail lines disrupted, its warehouses torched, its assassination plots, its cyber intrusions and influence campaigns. But what we're learning now suggests that part of this campaign may be evolving. According to an investigation by the Financial Times, Western intelligence officials say individuals linked to former Russian Wagner Group recruitment networks are helping coordinate sabotage operations across NATO countries. And in many cases, the recruits are not trained operatives or ideological extremists. They're seemingly harmless civilians, including teenagers. Let's start With Wagner. The Wagner group was Russia's most notorious private military contractor, a deniable arm of the Kremlin led by a man named Yevgeny Bosian. Now Wagner fighters operated in Syria and Libya, across Africa, and most visibly in Ukraine. They became known for brutal tactics and for recruiting prisoners to fight in some of the war's bloodiest early battles. After Bosian's failed mutiny in 2023 and.
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His subsequent death in a mysterious plane.
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Explosion that only people with no clue about how Putin operates considered mysterious, many observers assumed Wagner's influence would fade. Its formal structure was fractured, and many thought the group was essentially finished. But its recruitment networks, propaganda channels and digital infrastructure didn't simply disappear. That's because they proved to be useful to the FSB and the Kremlin. According to recent reporting, some of the same online ecosystems once used to recruit mercenaries are now allegedly being used to identify and task individuals inside Europe. The pitch is different, the mission is different. But the model remote recruitment, layered deniability and disposable manpower remains familiar. In Ukraine, authorities have detained multiple teenagers accused of carrying out reconnaissance and arson on behalf of Russian intelligence handlers. Officials say the pattern is consistent. Contact is made through encrypted messaging apps like Telegram. The initial task is small. Take photos, observe a location. Payment is offered, and sometimes in cryptocurrency. Then the assignments escalate. Western intelligence officials say similar tactics are being used in numerous NATO states. The targets vary. Infrastructure, logistics, nodes, symbolic sites, potential. The broader objective appears unchanged. It's not about battlefield victories for Moscow, it's about friction and chaos, creating disruption, eroding public confidence in support of Ukraine, and stretching European security services thin. From Moscow's perspective, there are numerous advantages to this shadow war approach. First, well, it's cheap. Recruiting a marginalized young person online costs far less than deploying a trained operative. Second, it's deniable. When a teenager sets fire to a warehouse, it looks like criminality, not state sponsored sabotage. Attribution becomes murkier and political escalation becomes harder to justify. Third, it's scalable. Digital recruitment allows intelligence services to cast a wide net, test recruits and discard those who fail without risking trained assets. It's a strategy perfectly adapted to the social media era. Russia has long relied on so called active measures, covert operations designed to influence, disrupt and destabilize adversaries below the threshold of open conflict. What we may be seeing now is the next iteration of that playbook. Outsourcing sabotage to individuals who may not even fully grasp the strategic game they're participating in and the use of teenagers is particularly unsettling. Young people are obviously more attuned to the digital world, more reachable through encrypted platforms, and in some cases more financially desperate. That makes them easier to manipulate and easier to abandon if they're caught. For European security services, this creates a difficult challenge. You're not just tracking trained foreign agents, you're monitoring online ecosystems, cryptocurrency flows, and at risk communities that can be exploited by hostile intelligence services. So if Wagner once functioned as Moscow's expeditionary hammer abroad, Wagner 2.0 may now be operating as a digital recruitment engine for low cost sabotage against Putin's enemies. Alright, before we head to break, a quick note for our PDB Premium subscribers. The latest edition of Ask Me Anything is now live. I take on a bunch of your excellent questions. And there were a bunch of them, as I just said, everything from the rising threat from China to my personal recommendations for cigars, cars. It's a smorgasbord of information, a literal buffet line without the sneeze guard. If you'd like to listen, just head to pdbpremium.com and become a subscriber. You'll also get to listen to the show ad free. Again, just head on over to PDB premium.com okay. Coming up next, nuclear talks resume in Geneva as Iran signals potential energy and aviation deals tied to a renewed agreement. Oh, it's like the mullahs are saying, well, sure, we slaughtered thousands of our citizens recently, not to mention the thousands of US soldiers our IDs killed over the years. And yeah, we're still in the business of terror through our proxies. But hey, how about we cut you in on some energy and aviation deals? But I digress. Also later in the episode, Ukraine detains its former energy minister amid a widening corruption probe. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, if you're a homeowner like me, you know that things never break around the home when it's convenient, right? You know what I'm talking about. The heater conks out in the dead of winter or the AC system goes out in the middle of summer. 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The U.S. and Iran are back at the table today, this time in Geneva for a second round of nuclear talks as the Trump administration presses for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program. While the mullahs claim the next move belongs to Washington, Iran's top diplomat, that would be Abbas Araggi, arrived in Switzerland for another round of indirect negotiations, once again mediated by Oman. On the American side, US Envoy Steve Wytkoff and senior adviser to President Trump Jared Kushner, because those apparently are the only two envoys we have are expected to participate, according to Reuters. Unlike the 2015 nuclear deal, which involved world powers, these talks remain streamlined, just Washington and Tehra, with Oman as a go between. But before we even talk about enrichment levels or sanctions, I want to point out the blame game that's underway currently. Iran, with apparently a complete lack of self awareness or irony, says the ball is in America's court to prove that Washington truly wants a deal. Iran's deputy foreign minister told the BBC that if Washington is, quote, sincere, then an agreement is within reach. And you know what? Whenever I think of the mullahs and the irgc, I always think of sincere and that IR is ready to discuss its nuclear program, but only if sanctions relief is part of the conversation. In other words, Tehran is framing itself as ready to deal, but only on its terms. The Trump administration, meanwhile, is pushing back on that framing that Washington is the obstacle. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that Trump prefers a negotiated settlement with the regime. But he also acknowledged it would be very hard to reach a deal with the mullahs, citing past negotiations and that proved fruitless. The Trump administration argues that Tehran is the one who is not sincere and is instead delaying serious commitments on enrichment to stall any oversight process. In addition to refusing to discuss his ballistic missile program or terror proxy network, Iran points to the regime's willingness to dilute uranium enriched to 60% purity, which is below weapons grade, although barely, as evidence of flexibility. Now, that sounds like compromise, but the reality is it's barely compromise, particularly when they're demanding full sanctions relief. In return, the regime has implied that they might be willing to dilute their 60% enriched uranium down to 20%. The problem being moving back from 20 to 60% and then to weapons grade is a relatively easy lift compared to the initial enrichment effort. And of course, there's no reasonable civilian use for uranium enriched beyond 5%. When pressed on whether the regime would ship its stockpiles of more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium out of the country, as it did under the 2015 agreement, Iran's deputy foreign minister said it was, quote, too early to say what will happen in the course of negotiations. Now, that's no small distinction. If the regime does not ship those stockpiles outside of their country, well, then diluting uranium, you know, all that does is it keeps the stash inside Iran. And at 60 or even 40 or 20%, the process to enrich two weapons grade is just a short jump. Shipping it out, of course, well, removes it entirely. From Washington's perspective, one step produces a slight delay in their nuclear program, while the other actually reduces risk. And still, Tehran's red lines remain firmly in place. Iran's deputy foreign minister made clear that, quote, zero enrichment is no longer on the table, a topic that's been a major sticking point that has derailed past negotiations. He also insisted that talks must focus exclusively on the regime's nuclear program, rejecting American and Israeli conditions that Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for its proxy groups, Hezbollah, Hamas, be part of the negotiations. Now, these talks are obviously unfolding against a tense backdrop. Diplomatic efforts collapsed last year after Israel launched a 12 day war with Iran, followed by US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Since then, Trump has warned that military options remain readily available if diplomacy fails. The US has reinforced its military posture in the region, dispatching a second aircraft carrier strike group. Washington says the buildup is merely meant to deter escalation, not provoke it, and to make clear that negotiations cannot simply drag on without consequence. Of course, Tehran has threatened to strike American military bases in the Middle east if attacked. At the same time, senior regime officials struck a more conciliatory tone, arguing that any durable agreement between the two capitals must deliver tangible economic benefits. The deputy director of Iran's Foreign Ministry argues that for an agreement to last, the U.S. must see, quote, high and quick economic returns from the regime, citing potential cooperation in oil and gas, mining, and even aircraft purchases to hammer out a deal. Yes, this is. This is actually quite amazing. It's a great concept. Let's sell aircraft to the Iranian regime, maybe buy their oil. I'm sure those revenues that they receive won't go towards building their weapons programs and resourcing Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis as they always have in the past. Why? If I know those mullahs, they'll probably use the revenues solely for the benefit of the Iranian population. But I give the Deputy director of the Foreign Ministry credit. Actually, he's figured out that President Trump is a transactional president and likes nothing better than doing deals. So it makes sense that the Iranians would try to play that card now. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think I'm about to. Any deal that keeps the current regime in place, gives them sanctions relief, doesn't touch their ballistic missile program, and allows them to keep their enriched uranium stockpiles. Well, frankly, all you're doing is putting lipstick on a pig, a band aid on a sucking chest wound. You are just kicking the can a bit down the road so someone else will have to clean up the eventual mess. All right, I want to shift to Ukraine, where the corruption investigation we've been following is widening yet again. This time, former Energy Minister German Galushenko was detained, allegedly attempting to flee the country as a $100 million probe. Well, at least. At least $100 million pushes deeper into the upper ranks of Kyiv's government. Galashenko, who led the energy ministry from 2021 to 2025, before briefly serving as a justice minister last year, was arrested Sunday near the Ukraine Polish border by anti corruption officers. Less than 24 hours later, Ukrainian authorities formally charged him with suspected money laundering and participation in what they describe as a criminal organization. The country's two main anti graft bodies, the National Anti Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti Corruption Prosecutor's Office. And you say to yourself, do those two organizations have acronyms? Well, of course they do. They're known as NABU and SAPO have been leading this investigation and announced Galashenko's arrest. So you say to yourself, what is the investigation all about? Well, as we've been following here on the podcast, it's an investigation codenamed midas, and it centers on alleged kickbacks tied to contracts for Ukraine's state nuclear energy company. The country's investigators say members of the group imposed a 10 to 15% surcharge on contracts which essentially inflated costs in exchange for ensuring the contracts were approved, payments weren't delayed or frozen inside the bureaucracy, and suppliers remained eligible to keep doing business with the state energy company. And it wasn't just routine contracting. Some of the projects involved building installations meant to protect energy sites from Russian air attacks. Yes, kickbacks on projects meant to protect the country's energy grid from Russian attacks, the energy grid that Ukrainians rely on for heat and power during the frigid winter months. Allegations that graft touched defensive infrastructure raised stakes considerably as tens of thousands of civilians across Ukraine, of course, endure a bitter winter with rolling blackouts. Authorities in Kyiv say they spent 15 months building the case, compiling roughly 1,000 hours of audio recordings. And Galashenko is not the only high profile figure caught up in this. Other suspects include 46 year old Timur Mindich, a close friend and former business partner of Ukrainian President Zelensky. As we discussed last year, Mindich fled Ukraine in November and was later filmed in Israel by news outlet Ukrainian Truth. Under martial law, Ukrainian men under 60 years old are barred from leaving the country without special authorization. That's a restriction that 52 year old Galashenko was allegedly attempting to bypass when he was detained. Also in November, NABU and SAPO detectives searched Galashenko's home. Shortly after Zelenskyy called for the resignations of Galashenko and his deputy, who briefly succeeded him at the Energy Ministry before he moved to the Justice Ministry. At that time, no charges were filed and Zelenskyy's top aide, Andrei Yermak, also resigned hours after authorities searched his home and office in connection with the probe, although officials say he has not been charged at this time. As with any fraud investigation, it's always relevant and telling to follow the money. Investigators allege that members of the group registered an offshore fund in Anguilla, a British territory in the Caribbean, in February 2021 to launder proceeds. The fund was reportedly headed by a longtime associate of the alleged participants. Kyiv Authorities alleged roughly $112 million was siphoned from Ukraine's energy sector during Geleshenko's tenure and funneled through instruments such as crypto and investments tied to that offshore fund. Prosecutors say Galashenko and his family received about $12 million. Now I will say as an aside, I'm always fascinated by exactly what dollar amount it takes for someone to sell out their country. As Ukraine approaches the fourth anniversary of Russia's full scale invasion, the widening Midas investigation has rattled European defense partners and placed renewed scrutiny on governance inside Kyiv. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, a funding standoff over immigration policy triggers a partial shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment to talk about personal finances and the importance of diversifying your assets. So here's the do you own physical gold? Look, in today's world with its ups and downs and global instability, owning gold is something that everyone should consider, right? And here's a top tip. Acre Gold makes it simple. That's Acre A C R E. With Acre Gold, you pick a plan that fits your budget, you make monthly payments, and when you've accumulated enough, they ship you a beautifully designed 24 karat Swiss gold bar. Gold is up 70% year over year, and central banks, well, they're still buying at record levels. The reality is smart money has been moving into hard assets for a reason. Acre Gold makes investing and owning gold easier than ever. And if I might just add, once you hold a physical asset like gold in your hands, well, you understand the difference between owning something real, something physical as compared to investments that are just numbers on a screen. And right now, the folks at Acre Gold are giving away 2.5gram ancient collection gold bars. You can enter for free for a chance to win the gold bars and also subscribe to gold at Getacre gold. Again, that's getacregold.com PDB Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances and reaching your financial goals. So let's be honest. For many folks, it can seem like the math just isn't adding up. Lately. You know what I'm talking about? Between the grocery store bills and the gas bills and the utility bills and those skyrocketing insurance premiums, it can be tough to make ends meet. Even with a steady job, more and more families are being forced to rely on high interest credit cards to cover expenses. Now, if you're a homeowner caught in that cycle right, carrying balances with interest rates in the 20s or even 30s, it's time to get some relief. American Financing is helping homeowners pay off that high interest debt at rates in the low fives. Their salary based mortgage consultants build exit strategies to help you get out from that debt. On average, they're saving their customers $800 a plus. If you start today, you may even delay the next two mortgage payments. There are no upfront fees. Just to find out how much you can save, America's home for home loans is American financing 866-885-1881. Again that number 866-885-1881 or just visit American financing.net PDB hey PDB listeners, Mike.
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Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers and who doesn't come on, check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been.
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In the room at the highest levels.
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From national security leaders to thinkers reshaping.
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How we understand the world.
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You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means, of course, for regional stability.
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And also his conversation with Douglas Murray.
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Where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability.
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Download the Jordan Harbinger Show.
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That's H A R B I N G E R just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes.
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You smarter, so give it a go. In today's Back of the Brief Washington's immigration fight just pushed the Department of Homeland Security DHS into a partial shutdown just after midnight on Saturday. DHS funding expired after Senate Democrats blocked a bipartisan spending deal over disputes tied to President Trump's immigration enforcement policies. The rest of the federal government remains funded, but Homeland Security, the agency at the heart of the administration's border crackdown, is now operating without appropriated funds. According to reporting from Fox News, roughly 90% of DHS employees will continue working without pay under contingency plans. That includes personnel at Customs and Border Protection, ICE, the Transportation Security Administration, FEMA and the U.S. coast Guard. Essential operations will continue, but thousands of workers will not receive paychecks until Congress resolves the standoff. The shutdown is the result of a negotiation that's been, well, unraveling in slow motion for weeks. Earlier this month, after a brief partial shutdown, Congress passed funding from most of the government through September, but DHS was carved out and kept alive on a short term extension to give negotiators time to work through a separate immigration focused fight. That extension has now expired after the talks unsurprisingly broke down. The impasse centers around demands from Democrats who want enforceable new guardrails on immigration enforcement as the price of funding dhs, including a ban on ICE agents wearing masks during operations and a requirement that officers obtain judicial warrants before pursuing suspected illegal immigrants. Republicans and the White House have resisted binding restrictions, arguing they endanger officers and tie the hands of enforcement at the exact moment that the administration is escalating the deportations and raids. Dhs, of course, is also more than just immigration enforcement. It oversees border security, airport screening, counterterrorism coordination, emergency disaster response, cybersecurity operations and maritime security, all of which could now see disruptions until the funding fight is resolved. But the path forward is complicated, to say the least. Congress is now out of session until 23rd February, meaning there's no fast legislative off ramp unless leaders call members back early. And that's a step they've said remains possible if a deal emerges. But there's little sign of a breakthrough on the horizon, particularly as Democrats say they will not budge from their demands. I should note this marks the third government shutdown, at least partial, in less than six months, underscoring just how unstable the federal funding process has become. Well, and also how dysfunctional Capitol Hill is. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 17th February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com Also, if I may be so bold, hopefully you can take a minute or two out of your busy day to check out our YouTube channel. That, of course can be found on YouTube on really by searching Residence Daily Brief, if you fancy what you see. Well, I hope you'll hit the subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.