The President's Daily Brief February 19th, 2025: Russia Plays Hardball in Riyadh & Iran Vows Another Attack on Israel

Host: Mike Baker
Release Date: February 19, 2025

1. US-Russia Negotiations in Riyadh

Overview:
Senior U.S. and Russian officials convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for landmark talks aimed at reviving diplomatic and economic ties and seeking an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. However, Moscow is perceived as playing hardball, escalating demands that have raised concerns among international observers.

Key Discussions:

• Russian Demands:
  Russia, represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, demanded that the West abandon Ukraine's NATO aspirations and rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in the region. Lavrov emphasized, “[...] NATO must go further and officially disavow a promise that it made at a summit in Bucharest back in 2008,” [02:30] highlighting Russia's longstanding objections to Ukraine's potential NATO membership.

• U.S. Position:
  U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz led the American delegation. Rubio stated, “We’re not going to pre-negotiate an end to this conflict. These are the kinds of things that have to happen through hard and difficult diplomacy in closed rooms over a period of time,” [04:15] indicating a cautious approach to negotiations.

• Progress Report:
  Both sides agreed to pursue three broad goals:

  1. Restoring staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow.
  2. Exploring economic cooperation.
  3. Initiating high-level negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

  Rubio added, “For us to be able to continue to move down this road, we need to have diplomatic facilities that are operating and functioning normally now,” [03:05] underscoring the importance of re-establishing diplomatic channels.

• Concerns from Allies:
  Leaders in Kyiv and NATO allies expressed alarm over Moscow’s approach, fearing that Russia might impose a unilateral peace settlement on Europe. Despite assurances from Rubio that the EU and Ukraine would join the negotiating process as discussions progress, skepticism remains high.

• Future Steps:
  National Security Adviser Mike Waltz hinted at an accelerated negotiation process, mentioning President Trump’s determination to move quickly. Plans for a face-to-face summit between Trump and Putin are anticipated, potentially within the coming weeks, marking the first such meeting since the conflict began. “President Trump is determined to move very quickly,” [05:40] Waltz stated, indicating a possible rapid escalation in diplomatic efforts.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Witkoff (Middle East Envoy): “Everybody was there to get to the right outcome, end,” [03:50] reflecting an optimistic view of the talks.
• Sergei Lavrov: “Without the public assurance, this problem will continue to poison the atmosphere on the European continent,” [02:30] emphasizing Russia's stance on NATO.

2. Iran Vows Another Attack on Israel

Overview:
A senior commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a stark warning of a third direct strike on Israel, signaling a further escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. This threat comes amid ongoing hostilities and efforts to contain Iran's regional influence and nuclear ambitions.

Key Developments:

• Operation True Promise 3:
  IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadhavi declared, “Operation True Promise 3 will occur at the right time,” [09:30] indicating Iran’s preparedness for another offensive against Israel. This operation follows previous missile barrages:

  • Operation True Promise 1 (April 2024): Over 300 missiles and drones targeted Israeli military installations in retaliation for the killing of two IRGC generals in Damascus.
  • Operation True Promise 2 (October 2024): Approximately 200 missiles were launched following the assassination of high-profile Iranian-aligned figures, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

• Israeli Response:
  Israel continues to exert military pressure on Iran, most notably through Operation Days of Repentance, which U.S. and Israeli officials hailed as a devastating blow to Iran’s military capabilities. Despite Iran’s dismissal of these claims as Western propaganda, the cycle of retaliation shows no signs of abating.

• Political Climate:
  Following a high-level meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, where Netanyahu vowed to “finish the job,” [10:55] Iran condemned the meeting as a provocation and a violation of international law. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman stated, “They cannot do a damn thing,” [12:20] reinforcing Tehran's defiance against Western pressure.

• Potential Escalation:
  Israel is reportedly considering preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, a move that could significantly escalate the conflict. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei warned, “Any attack would be met with severe retaliation,” [13:45] signaling readiness for direct confrontation.

Notable Quotes:

• Ali Fadhavi (IRGC Deputy Commander): “Operation True Promise 3 will occur at the right time,” [09:30]
• Rubio: “We’re not going to pre-negotiate an end to this conflict,” [04:15]
• Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesman: “They cannot do a damn thing,” [12:20]
• Khamenei: “Any attack would be met with severe retaliation,” [13:45]

3. Hostage Situation in Israel: Hamas Releases Bodies and Hostages

Overview:
Hamas, the Iran-backed terror group, has announced plans to return the bodies of four hostages, including two young children from the brutal October 7th attacks. Additionally, Hamas has expedited the release of six living hostages, doubling the initially planned number.

Key Updates:

• Release of Hostage Bodies:
  Hamas stated that the remains to be returned will include members of the Bibas family—Shiri and her two young children, aged nine months and four years at the time of their abduction. Previously, Hamas claimed without evidence that the family was killed in an Israeli airstrike, a claim the Israeli military has not confirmed. Israeli officials remain concerned for the family's well-being, with an official noting, “The bodies will undergo formal identification before any names are publicly confirmed,” [11:10].

• Bibas Family's Statement:
  The Bibas family acknowledged Hamas's announcement but insisted, “Until we receive definitive confirmation, our journey is not over,” [11:35], reflecting continued uncertainty over their fate.

• Release of Living Hostages:
  In a surprising move, Hamas expedited the release of six living hostages, scheduled for Saturday. This release is contingent upon Israel’s agreement to:

  • Release all Palestinian women and minors under the age of 19 arrested since October 2023.
  • Allow rubble-clearing equipment to enter Gaza via Egypt.

  Previously, the first phase of the ceasefire saw Hamas release 33 hostages in exchange for approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. As of now, 73 hostages remain in Gaza, encompassing Israeli soldiers, civilians, and foreign nationals from Thailand and Nepal.

• Negotiations for Ceasefire Extension:
  Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar confirmed that talks for the second phase of the ceasefire would commence this week, focusing on the release of all remaining hostages and establishing a permanent ceasefire. Saar emphasized, “We will not accept the continued presence of Hamas or any other terrorist organization in Gaza,” [14:05]. He also suggested that the ceasefire could be extended contingent upon meaningful progress toward a final agreement.

Notable Quotes:

• Hamas Negotiator: “The remains will include members of the Bibas family,” [11:10]
• Bibas Family Statement: “Until we receive definitive confirmation, our journey is not over,” [11:35]
• Gideon Saar (Israeli Foreign Minister): “We will not accept the continued presence of Hamas or any other terrorist organization in Gaza,” [14:05]

4. North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions Escalate

Overview:
North Korea, feeling sidelined in global affairs, is intensifying its nuclear ambitions, disregarding U.S. denuclearization efforts. This move follows a high-level security conference in Germany where the U.S., Japan, and South Korea reaffirmed their commitment to North Korea's complete denuclearization.

Key Developments:

• North Korea's Response:
  The North Korean Foreign Ministry labeled the trilateral pledge as an “outdated and absurd plan,” [16:00] signaling strong opposition to U.S. and allied initiatives. The regime promised “an overwhelming and decisive counteraction against what they see as hostile forces,” effectively committing to expanding their nuclear arsenal.

• Military Escalation:
  In reaction to the U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation, North Korea indicated that it would ramp up missile tests and other military activities to demonstrate its capabilities and resolve. “We could see new missile tests in the coming days as Pyongyang flexes its military muscle just to prove a point,” [17:25] Baker explained, highlighting the potential for increased regional instability.

• Strategic Objectives:
  Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea views its nuclear program as essential for regime survival. The regime has historically used its nuclear advancements as leverage in international negotiations and as a deterrent against perceived threats.

• U.S. Diplomatic Moves:
  President Trump is reportedly seeking to re-establish personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, reminiscent of their 2018 summit. Trump has hinted at future engagements, stating, “I still get along with Kim,” [17:55] though the effectiveness of such talks remains uncertain amidst North Korea's hardened stance.

Implications: North Korea's aggressive posture exacerbates tensions in East Asia and poses significant challenges to U.S. and allied security strategies. The regime's commitment to expanding its nuclear capabilities undermines regional stability and complicates diplomatic efforts aimed at denuclearization.

Notable Quotes:

• North Korea Foreign Ministry: “An overwhelming and decisive counteraction against what they see as hostile forces,” [16:00]
• President Trump: “I still get along with Kim,” [17:55]

Concluding Remarks

Mike Baker concludes the episode by emphasizing the interconnectedness of these global issues and the importance of staying informed. With high-stakes negotiations in Riyadh, escalating threats from Iran, the volatile hostage situation in Israel, and North Korea's unabated nuclear ambitions, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with challenges. Baker encourages listeners to engage with reliable sources and remain vigilant in understanding the complexities shaping international relations.

Final Quote:
“Expect North Korea to keep rattling its saber, launching missiles and demanding attention,” [16:49], summarizing the persistent volatility introduced by Pyongyang’s actions.

Stay Informed:
For more detailed analysis and updates, tune in to the next episode of The President's Daily Brief hosted by Mike Baker.