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Mike Baker
It's Tuesday, the 24th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up on the fourth anniversary. Can you believe that? The fourth anniversary of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. New signs suggest Moscow's momentum may be fading. Russia's troop levels have plateaued and Ukrainian forces are reclaiming territory.
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Later in the show, Ukraine hits a
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snag, though, on the diplomatic front as Hungary blocks a major European Union loan
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package and new sanctions on Russia.
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Not a surprise, given Hungary's Viktor Orban is not averse to doing Putin's bidding.
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Plus, the clock keeps ticking with Iran.
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US Envoys are heading to Geneva for more indirect talks even as the threat of American strikes loom on the horizon. And in today's Back of the Brief, the aftermath of El Mencho's killing triggers unrest in Mexico, with Americans in Puerto Vallarta told to shelter in place as flights are canceled and diverted. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Four years ago today, Russian troops, tanks and artillery began streaming across the Ukrainian border in what many analysts and Putin himself assumed would be a campaign measured in weeks, if not days.
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Columns advanced from multiple directions. They surged westward into Ukraine's eastern provinces
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from Russian territory, while armored units drove south from Belarus toward the capital.
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Missiles rained down across the country.
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Western intelligence warned that Kyiv could fall quickly.
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Of course, all the assumptions failed to
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capture the grit and determination of Ukraine's defenders and the profound miscalculations, missteps and misinformation inside the Kremlin. Four years later, the map looks very different from those early expectations. Russia occupies roughly one fifth of Ukraine's territory, in some places less territory than it captured in those first days.
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The war has become Europe's largest land
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conflict since World War II, and in many ways resembles the grinding trench warfare of World War I. Hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, and tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid have poured into ky. But here's what stands out on this fourth anniversary. For the first time since the full scale invasion began, Russia's war machine appears to have stopped growing.
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According to reporting this week, the number
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of Russian occupation troops inside Ukraine has plateaued over the past six months, holding steady at just a little over 700,000 personnel, including reserves. That figure has not increased despite Moscow meeting its recruitment targets. The reason that's significant is that for
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much of this war, Russia relied on
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sheer mass, mobilizing Additional troops, feeding manpower into meat grinder assaults and accepting staggering casualties in exchange for incremental gains. It was a brutal math problem. More bodies for those small territorial gains.
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But if recruitment is now merely replacing
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losses, not expanding the force, then the engine of expansion has stalled. A military that can't grow, can't surge. And a military that can't surge struggles to break a hardened front line.
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And over the past few weeks, we've
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begun to see signs of that dynamic on the battlefield.
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Ukraine's air assault forces announced that they've
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regained control of eight settlements in recent days. Ukrainian forces say they've cleared Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from more than 300 square kilometers of territory in that area. These aren't sweeping breakthroughs, to be sure. They don't fundamentally alter the map, but they are important.
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They suggest that in certain sectors, Russian
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forces are no longer advancing and in some cases, are being pushed back. Zooming out the broader picture reinforces the point.
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After seizing large swaths of eastern and
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southern Ukraine in the early months of the invasion, including securing a land corridor to Crimea, Russia's territorial gains have slowed dramatically. Analysts estimate that since early 2023, Moscow has gained only a small additional percentage of Ukrainian territory. The front lines have largely solidified into entrenched defensive belts and minefields and dueling grounds for drones. It is a war of attrition. Russia still fields a larger population, deeper manpower reserves, and significant industrial capacity.
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It has retooled its economy for a war footing. That economy has shown remarkable resilience and
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continues to produce artillery shells and drones and missiles at high volume. Ukraine, for its part, remains heavily dependent on Western ammunition, air defenses, and financial support. And that support is no longer as politically unified as it once was. Fractures inside the European Union, although along not unsurprising lines, are jeopardizing agreements over further sanctions and financial aid packages. And we'll have more on that in the next segment of this episode. Now, the numbers, after four years, are sobering. Europe's security architecture has been rewritten. NATO has expanded. Energy markets have been reshaped. Sanctions have strained Russia's economy, but not collapsed it. Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary resilience, but at immense human cost. And that brings us to the strategic question on this anniversary. If Russia can't grow its forces beyond its current footprint, can it still achieve its objective?
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If Ukraine can stabilize and, in places
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reverse Russian advances, can it sustain that momentum without wholehearted Western support? And as both sides dig in for a fifth year of war, which nation's political will will prevail? Four years ago, the world expected a lightning strike. What it got instead was this grinding war of endurance. Today, Russia has not achieved its maximal aims. Their goal was never just the Donbass or portions of Eastern Ukraine. They wanted the entire country. They still. But four years on, well, four years on, Ukraine has not been broken.
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All right, coming up next, Ukraine faces
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diplomatic headwinds as Hungary blocks key European Union aid and new sanctions on Russia, while US Envoys head to Geneva for high stakes talks with Iran under the threat of potential American strikes. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, many of you know me as the host of the President's Daily Brief, but I'm also a business owner, have been for years.
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Mike Baker
Welcome back to the pdb. We just walked through the battlefield realities of the Ukraine conflict.
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Now I want to shift the focus
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to Brussels, where Hungary has thrown down two vetoes to block a 90 billion euro emergency loan for Kyiv and stall
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the EU's latest sanctions package against Moscow.
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Once again, Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban is showing his true colors.
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As we touched on in Monday's PDB, negotiations over the bloc's 20th sanctions package
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have been strained because of two EU and NATO members. That would be Hungary and Slovakia. And it's not just a routine objection. The 90 billion euro loan had already been approved by the European Parliament and endorsed by EU leaders at a December summit where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a longtime ally within NATO of Putin,
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negotiated an opt out for his country.
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Now, Budapest has tied both measures to the restoration of Russian oil flows to their country. That dependence is the pressure point. Hungary receives roughly 80 to 90% of its crude oil through what's known as the Druzhba pipeline. That's an infrastructure pipeline built during the Cold War that still links part of Central Europe to Russian export flows.
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Hungary and Slovakia have continued to feed
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Putin's war machine through their reliance on Russian energy after crude shipments through Guzba were halted in late January due to damaged pipeline infrastructure in western Ukraine, which
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Ukrainian officials said was caused by a Russian drone strike.
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Budapest accused Kyiv of blackmail, arguing that the disruption was being used as leverage against Hungary's opposition to further sanctions or over opposition to Orban's desire to appease Putin. Now, however you want to frame it, the Kremlin friendly Orban said, quote, once oil shipments resume, normal relations will be restored. And he wasn't alone. As we've been tracking, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico quickly aligned himself with Budapest and Putin. He too threatened to halt diesel and electricity exports to Ukraine unless oil transit is restored.
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Earlier this month, Bratislava declared a state
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of emergency in its oil sector, underscoring how deeply energy dependence continues to shape policy decisions inside the European Union. And that is where the confrontation sharpens. Brussels hoped to finalize the sanctions package, which includes a full ban on services for Russian oil tankers, in time for the invasion's anniversary.
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Instead, EU foreign policy chief Kayakalas acknowledged
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that agreement was unlikely, citing Hungary's very strong statements. She urged member states not to conflate separate issues, but to no availability. And the timing here is something to highlight. Kyiv signals it needs fresh EU assistance as early as April, particularly after US military and financial aid slowed following President Trump's re election. That makes the Hungarian vetoes more impactful. They directly affect Ukraine's near term funding outlook. And the dispute over energy also continues to unfold on the battlefield.
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Just hours before the Monday meeting, Ukrainian
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long range drone strikes struck a key oil pumping station in Russia's Tatarstan region. That's a critical node in the Druzhba pipeline. Network. Located roughly 900 miles inside Russian territory, the facility gathers crude from Western Siberia, the Urals, and the Caspian before sending it westward toward Central Europe, including Hungary and Slovakia.
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Geolocated footage on social media shows flames
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and thick black smoke rising from the site. Ukraine's General Staff claimed responsibility for the drone strike.
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Russia's Defense Ministry responded to Kyiv's claim,
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saying it engaged 35 enemy drones over Tatarstan, but did not comment on the extent of the damage. So now, four years into the war, the battlefield runs also through pipelines, power grids, and the political machinery of the European Union.
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All right, turning our focus to the
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Middle east and Iranian nuclear talks, such as they are, Washington is preparing for for another round of negotiations, indirect negotiations with Iran and Geneva. But after two rounds that produce no breakthrough, expectations remain low as American aircraft carriers and massive air support are positioned in the Gulf. The latest session, which is set for Thursday, will bring US Special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser to President Trump Jared Kushner back to the table. But Tehran is again negotiating under mounting pressure. As we've been tracking, Trump has made clear he is considering limited strikes if the regime still refuses to move.
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Two carrier strike groups, the USS Abraham
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Lincoln, already positioned in the Arabian sea, and the USS Gerald R. Ford on
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route alongside more than 120 aircraft, fighter jets and refueling tankers are currently part
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of the leverage that the White House is bringing to the negotiating table.
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As I've mentioned, some assessments indicate that
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this is the largest concentration of American air power in the Middle east since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
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Now, before we even get to the substance of the talks, you have to understand the setup.
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Washington is not walking into Geneva hoping for goodwill. It's pairing diplomacy with deterrence. The message is simple. A deal is available, but a delay carries consequence.
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The first round of indirect talks in
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Oman was described as constructive. Oh, really? The second, held in Geneva, was framed by Oman's foreign minister, who is the mediator in these indirect discussions, as a, quote, positive push toward finalizing an agreement. But when you strip away the diplomatic language and the tendency for all diplomats and negotiators to over egg the pudding, neither session closed the gap on the central disputes. And a key dispute remains in Richmond. Well, not to mention that the Iranian regime refuses to discuss their ballistic missile program or their support for their terrorist proxy network throughout the region.
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Basically, the regime is attempting to limit
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the talks to a very narrow element of their nuclear program in exchange for what they describe as sanctions relief. Iranian President Masoud Bezechkian says Recent talks
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have produced, quote, encouraging signals. While warning that Tehran is prepared for,
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quote, any potential scenario, the Islamic Republic's foreign minister, Abbas Aradchi, has gone further, framing the regime's nuclear program as a matter of national, quote, dignity and pride. He still insists that enrichment is a sovereign right under the non Proliferation Treaty and says Iran is willing to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Really? Despite denying the the UN Nuclear watchdog
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full access and transparency to its nuclear
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facilities over the history of its nuclear program. But perhaps that just makes me sound churlish.
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What Iraqi has not said and what
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Tehran has consistently refused to entertain is abandoning enrichment altogether. And that is the crux of the impasse for Washington. Preventing Iran from ever reaching a nuclear weapons threshold means addressing enrichment directly. Witkoff said Trump is curious why Tehran has not yet, quote, capitulated and agreed to curb its program. The president's focus appears narrowly centered on stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Administration officials have signaled that zero enrichment from the mullahs would be the clearest, most durable path to that outcome. Again, no one is addressing the fact that the international community has never had the ability to fully verify the compliance of the regime in regards to any past agreements.
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Iraq sheet says Tehran is preparing a
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draft proposal that would, quote, accommodate both
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sides concerns, potentially even exceeding the elements
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of the 2015 nuclear deal brokered under then President Barack Obama. How generous of the mullahs and the irgc. Again, their track record is anything but accommodating or transparent. I know I'm sounding very negative here.
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Officials in Tehran have also made clear
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they are resisting efforts to broaden the negotiations to include ballistic missiles or Iran's regional proxy networks, issues that remain central to Israeli security concerns. And that refusal is important to point
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out because while Trump's priority is the
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nuclear file, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pressed for a far broader dismantling of Iran's military capabilities, including its missile arsenal and proxy infrastructure. And that creates a quiet strategic divergence between Washington and Jerusalem over the ultimate scope of any agreement. So let's step back and look at the landscape heading into Geneva. American leverage is increasing, military assets are in place, and the White House is
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openly signaling that it has alternatives if
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talks continue to stall. Meanwhile, Tehran's rhetoric remains steady, firm on enrichment and resistant to expanding the scope of negotiations. The reality is any deal that leaves the mullahs and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
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in place and fails to allow for
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full transparency into the regime's nuclear program and allows the regime to continue building its ballistic missile program while continuing to arm and resource the regional proxies is not a deal worth making.
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Okay, coming up in today's Back of
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the brief violence escalates after the death of cartel boss El Mencho, prompting US
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Officials to warn Americans in Puerto Vallarta
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and elsewhere to shelter in place. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.
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Mike Baker
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in today's Back of the Brief the fallout from the killing of cartel boss
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El Mencho continues, with American tourists and
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some of Mexico's most popular vacation destinations
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now being told to shelter in place. The US embassy issued security alerts covering
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parts of 18 Mexican states, warning Americans and cities including Puerto Vallarta and Cancun
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to remain indoors amid road blockades and cartel violence.
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Flights in and out of Guadalajara and
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Puerto Vallarta have faced delays and cancellations, while videos circulating online show black smoke rising over highways and burned out vehicles blocking major intersections.
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All of this comes after Mexican special
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forces tracked down and killed Nemesio Ruben
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Oseguera Cervantes, better known as Elementio, the
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leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, also known by its acronym cjng.
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According to Mexican officials, security forces located him by tracking one of his girlfriends.
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Mean he had more than one girlfriend. What a cad to a secluded cabin in the mountains of Tapalpa in Jalisco. State special forces and National Guard units closed in on the site over the weekend. When they approached, his bodyguards opened fire, triggering a fierce gun battle.
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Eight cartel members were killed in the firefight.
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El Mencho was captured, wounded in nearby woods, but he died while being airlifted to medical treatment.
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Mexican officials are now confirming that the
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operation involved coordination with the U S Mexico Task Force, integrating military, intelligence and law enforcement personnel.
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In response to El Mencho's killing, cartel
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members have unleashed retaliatory violence across multiple states.
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Authorities reported 85 blockades nationwide, 18 in Jalisco alone, along with attacks on gas
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stations, banks and security forces.
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Vehicles were set ablaze, schools were canceled,
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public transportation was suspended as the violence spread across more than 20 Mexican states.
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Thousands of Mexican troops have now been
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deployed to restore order. More than 25 security personnel were killed in the broader operation, along with more than 30 cartel members and at least one civilian.
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If this pattern feels familiar, it's because, well, it is. As we noted yesterday, previous high profile
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arrests and killings of cartel leaders have triggered immediate waves of violence as rival factions and loyalists scramble for control.
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El Mencho's death removes one of the
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most ruthless and powerful drug kingpins in the Western Hemisphere, a man whose organization
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has trafficked fentanyl, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine
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into the US on an industrial scale. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday, 24th February. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and finally, remember to check out our YouTube channel. Some say it's the finest YouTube channel of all. Just search up at President's Daily Brief.
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I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back
Mike Baker
later today with the PDB afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Episode: February 24th, 2026: Ukraine Claws Back Ground As Russia’s Military Stalls & Another Round of Iran Diplomacy Ahead
Date: February 24, 2026
Total Length (content): ~23 minutes
This episode, released on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, focuses on three main arenas:
Anniversary Reflection
On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Mike Baker revisits initial expectations versus the reality today:
Russian Advances Have Plateaued
Ukrainian Counteractions
The Numbers & Strategic Questions
Memorable Quote
Hungary’s Veto & EU Discord
Energy Dependency as Leverage
Impact on Ukraine
Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes
New Geneva Talks Amidst U.S. Military Buildup
Major U.S. Force Projection
Points of Impasse
Memorable Quotes
Major Cartel Figure Killed
Aftermath: Widespread Violence & Tourist Warnings
Pattern of Escalated Violence
For listeners seeking to understand the state of major international crises—Ukraine’s war, energy and alliance dynamics in Europe, US-Iran brinkmanship, and the real-time consequences of cartel politics in Mexico—this episode provides a concise, strategic, and at times brutally honest briefing.