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The President's Daily Brief
February 25th, 2026: China Arming Iran With Supersonic “Ship-Killer” Weapon & Russia Executing Its Own Soldiers
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It's Wednesday, the 25th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Iranian regime is reportedly nearing a deal with China for a supersonic anti ship missile system. That change the math for U. S Carriers currently operating in the Gulf? I'll have the details later in the show. A new report is suggesting that Xi Jinping's sweeping purge of China's military may be weakening the very force that he spent years trying to modernize. Plus, a new documentary highlights claims from Russian troops who say fellow soldiers were executed and tortured for refusing suicidal assault missions. And in today's back of the Brief, after El Mencho's killing triggered fresh cartel violence, we'll take a closer look at travel advisories and what it could mean for throngs of tourists and spring breakers. But first, today's bdb. Iran may be on the verge of acquiring one of the most dangerous weapons it's ever fielded. And it's designed with one target in mind, large warships. According to an exclusive report from Reuters, Tehran is nearing a deal with China to purchase the CM302. That's a supersonic anti ship cruise missile often described by analysts as a, quote, ship killer. If finalized, the agreement would mark one of the most advanced complete weapon systems China has transferred to Iran in decades. And how about that timing? Not only as tensions between the US And Iran reach a peak, but also just weeks away from a planned summit between Xi Jinping and President Trump. Well, that would make for some interesting conversation. Now, the CM302 is a sea skimming supersonic missile with a range of roughly 290 kilometers. That's about 180 miles if my math is correct. What makes it so dangerous is that it flies low to the water at high speeds. That reduces radar detection time and compresses interception windows for naval defenses. China's state owned manufacturer markets it as capable of sinking destroyers and even aircraft carriers. Of course, that claim is is marketing, but the underlying reality is serious. This is a system specifically engineered to challenge modern naval power. As mentioned, the timing of this deal is critical. The US has assembled a substantial naval presence within range of Iran, including two carrier strike groups. I won't revisit that buildup in detail, but it forms the backdrop to this development. While Washington signals that military options remain on the table, Iran appears to be moving to acquire a weapon built to complicate those very options. Negotiations between Tehran and Beijing reportedly began at least two years ago. But sources told Reuters that talks accelerated sharply after last year's 12 Day War between Israel and Iran, with senior Iranian military officials traveling to China as the deal entered its final stages. Now, we don't know yet how many missiles would be involved or what Iran would pay, or when deliveries might begin. China's Foreign Ministry has said it's not aware of the reported negotiations. Well, how convenient. If the transfer goes forward, it would obviously significantly enhance Iran's maritime strike capabilities. The Persian Gulf is not an open ocean battle space. It is narrow, geographically constrained, and saturated with potential threats. US Carrier strike groups already operate within range of Iranian ballistic missiles, armed drones, coastal batteries and fast attack craft. A credible supersonic missile. Well, that adds another layer of complexity. Of course, US Carriers are not defenseless. Thank you for that statement of the obvious. They operate within layered defensive systems that include Aegis equipped escorts, electronic warfare platforms, interceptor missiles and combat air patrols. They represent the most sophisticated naval formations in the world. But military planning is not built on absolutes. It's built on risk management. Even a modest increase in the probability of a successful strike against a high value ship and changes operational calculations. And all of this comes as a very different conversation appears to be happening inside the White House. President Trump has said publicly that his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs believes military action against Iran would be, quote, easily won. But the New York Times reports that in private briefings, General Dan Kane has outlined the risks more carefully, including the possibility of American casualties and the limits of how long high intensity operations could be sustained. At the same time, an Israeli intelligence assessment is now suggesting that while the US could conduct several days of intense aerial operations, sustaining that tempo for an extended period may be difficult. That doesn't imply U.S. forces in the region are weak. It reflects the reality that high intensity modern warfare consumes munitions very quickly. Now layer that onto the missile story. If Iran acquires a weapon specifically designed to threaten carriers, and if US Planners are already weighing the scope and duration of any potential strike window, the strategic equation becomes more delicate. Tehran may be attempting to raise the cost of action before a shot is ever fired. Or conversely, the calculation on the US Side may be to strike before such a weapon is acquired. There's also a broader geopolitical dimension here. China, Iran and Russia already conduct joint naval exercises. Beijing has previously been accused by Washington of supplying missile related materials to Tehran. Though not complete advanced Systems, a finalized CM302 sale would signal a deeper level of military alignment at a time when US Iran tensions are running high. It would also suggest that China is willing to assert itself more directly in a region long dominated by American naval power. Now, to be clear, there's no confirmed delivery date, there's no confirmation of quantity, and no public acknowledgment from Beijing that a deal is ever taking place. But if Iran fields a credible supersonic anti ship capability, the Persian Gulf becomes a more contested and potentially more dangerous theater for Americans to operate in. And if China does go through with this sale to Iran, it could legitimately put the upcoming planned summit between Trump and Xi Jinping in jeopardy. Alright, coming up next, signs that Xi's sweeping purge is hurting China's military readiness and disturbing new claims from Russian troops about executions inside their own ranks. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I n G E R just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB We've been tracking China's sweeping military corruption purge for months and now a new report out of London finds the so called house cleaning campaign is beginning to take a measurable toll on the People's Liberation Army's command structure. The latest assessment comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in its annual Military Balance Report. The report is a global survey of armed forces and the headline finding is this. The purge by Xi Jinping is leaving what analysts describe as serious deficiencies at the top of China's military hierarchy. So let's walk through what that actually means. As we previously discussed, the crackdown has cut across China's Central Military Commission, theater commands, weapons procurement agencies, and even the defense academic community. In other words, the very institutions responsible for the Chinese Communist Party's military strategy, weapons development and operational planning are all being disrupted at once. And the names involved are significant. You may remember that General Zhang Youxia, the highest ranking uniformed officer in the PLA and a longtime ally of Chinese President Xi Jinping, was removed. He was placed under a corruption investigation in January. Another senior figure, He Weidong, was expelled in October. The fallout has been significant. China's seven member Central Military Commission, which sits at the top of the country's military authority, has effectively been reduced to just two active figures, Xi himself and the newly promoted Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin. Now, when a military command body shrinks that dramatically, it can obviously severely impact the integrity, the effectiveness and the quality of the decision making process. According to the report, until those vacancies are filled, the PLA is operating at a disadvantage and if some of the officers who were promoted in recent years advance because of political interactions rather than operational competence, or if corruption disordered procurement decisions, then readiness, morale and equipment quality could all suffer. Now I want to point out that the report is careful here it describes the disruption as likely temporary, but it notes that the purge is almost certain to have some short term operational impact. An analyst tied to the report cautions that the anti corruption investigations may not even be complete. So, yes, Beijing may ultimately consolidate control, but in the process, the chain of command is under heavy strain. Strategically, the bigger picture looks different. Despite the internal turbulence, the broader trajectory of China's military expansion appears intact. The report points to expanded Chinese deployments around Taiwan last year and continued force projection across the Indo Pacific. Military spending tells the same story. China currently accounts for nearly 44% of total defense outlays in Asia. That's up from an average of 37% between 2010 and 2020, consistently outpacing regional peers when looking at that data. Even as the leadership structure is being shaken, China's modernization drive is still moving forward. And Xi himself made a rare public reference to the purge in a recent speech to his armed forces. He called the past year unusual and extraordinary, saying the PLA had undergone revolutionary forging in the fight against corruption. That language suggests Beijing sees the purge not as instability, but as purification. For outside observers, though, the picture is more complicated. Okay, I want to turn now to the war in Ukraine. Because as Russia's invasion grinds on, disturbing new accounts are emerging from behind the front lines. In a BBC documentary, former Russian troops alleged that soldiers who refused orders are executed, tortured, or thrown into near suicidal assaults by their own commanders. Now, here's what these men are actually describing. The film is titled the Zero Line Inside Russia's War, and it features testimony from multiple former Russian servicemen who say they witnessed point blank executions carried out by their own officers. Not disciplinary hearings, not battlefield confusion, just executions of soldiers who attempted to retreat. One of the servicemen, Dima, a 34 year old army paramedic, said he took on a medical role because he didn't want to kill anyone. Even so, he told the BBC he watched fellow soldiers murdered. He said in the documentary, quote, I see it just 2 meters, 3 meters away, just murders, just click, clack, bang. It's not a drama, it's not a movie. It's real life. End quote. Dima at one point described seeing roughly 20 bodies lying in a pit after being, quote, zeroed, which is Russian slang for ex prosecuting one of your own. According to him, many of the men were ex convict recruits. He accused his former commander, Alexei Zanoftov, a man awarded Russia's Gold Star, the highest state medal, and named a hero of the motherland in 2024, of carrying out executions. Dima refers to Zenov Tov as, quote, the butcher. And Dima is not alone. Families of deceased soldiers have publicly appealed to Russian President Putin to investigate allegations of brutality under Zenotov's comm. In videos posted online, relatives accuse him of sending their loved ones to their deaths, quote, armed with only machine guns and shovels. And that brings us to what these soldiers describe as the broader system behind it. They call it meat storm assaults, meaning wave after wave of troops sent toward Ukrainian defensive positions to exhaust ammunition and drone capabilities. Dima said, you send three guys, then another three. It didn't work out. Send 10, didn't work out with 10, send 50. Eventually you'll break through, end quote. He claimed 200 men in his regiment died within three days. During one such operation, another former soldier, Dennis, said commanders threw men, quote, like meat toward Ukrainian lines. It's a description that strips away any illusion of strategy. Then there's Ilya, who worked in a command post tracking casualties. He said he provided the BBC with a detailed list of 79 men mobilized alongside him and that he's the only survivor. He said he personally witnessed four soldiers shot at point blank range after refusing to return to the front. And the allegations didn't stop at executions. Both men say they were tortured for resisting orders by their commanders. Dema, who was eventually promoted to officer, said he endured 72 days of abuse, including electric shocks, for refusing to send his subordinates into what he believed were hopeless assaults. Ilia described beatings and starvation and being urinated on. Punishment he said was used to force compliance. Now, I want to point out that the BBC said it was unable to independently verify the servicemen's claims. But if these accounts are accurate, it's not just a story about battlefield brutality. It's about coercion, about fear being used as a management tool, and officers allegedly killing and tormenting their own men to sustain offensive momentum. The Kremlin has rejected the accusations from the documentary, stating its armed forces operate, quote, with utmost restraint under combat conditions and that any alleged violations are investigated. But taken together, the testimonies point to a pattern in which brutal discipline and forced sacrifice appear embedded in how the Russian military is sustaining its war effort. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the Brief. Cartel. Retaliation after El Mencho's killing is prompting new travel concerns among tourists and students preparing for spring break in Mexico. I'll have the details when we return. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, we are well into 2026 now, right? You knew that. And what's the old saying? New year, new you, right Is that the saying? But what happens if you don't feel like a new you? What happens if you're not sleeping well? Or if recovery after work or a workout is harder or maybe stress is just out of hand? 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Now, many of you know me, I, I hope anyway as the host of the President's Daily Brief. But did you also know I'm a business owner? That's right, have been for many years. Now I want to take just a moment to talk with all you business owners out there. You probably already know that small businesses face an uphill battle when it comes to working with big banks, right? Getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays. But let me tell you about a business out there working hard to make life easier for small businesses. I'm talking about Cardiff. For bank rates without the wait, go to Cardiff Co PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. Their application takes less than five minutes, has no impact on personal credit, and approvals can happen in minutes. With same day funding. It's the fastest way to get the capital you need to keep your business moving forward. Look, banks try to lock out small businesses, but Cardiff has the key. Big banks may not want to approve your business loans. 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We've already reported on the military operation that took him out and the immediate wave of violence that followed burning vehicles, roadblocks, gun battles and cartel retaliation across over 20 states and Mexico. Now the question many Americans and others are asking is simpler. What does this mean for me? What about my vacation plans? Especially with the annual ritual of spring break right around the corner? In the days since El Mencho's death, violence has been concentrated primarily in Jalisco and surrounding states, although there have been incidents in over 20 Mexican states. That includes major tourist destinations like Puerto Vallarta, where the US Embassy issued a temporary shelter in place advisory as security forces worked to stabilize the area, flights were disrupted and some airlines issued travel waivers. Tourists described road closures and tense conditions outside of resort zones. Mexican authorities have since deployed thousands of additional troops to the region, and officials say conditions in many areas are beginning to stabilize. Importantly, not all of Mexico is affected. Popular spring break destinations like Cancun and Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Cabo may have not seen the same level of unrest arrest tied directly to this incident, although the situation remains fluid now, when a cartel leader of that magnitude is removed, violence does often follow. Not just cartel retaliation against the government, but also internal power struggles. Rival factions test boundaries and remaining lieutenants try to project strength. And that can mean short term spikes in violence as criminal networks reposition themselves. It doesn't automatically mean nationwide instability, but it does mean that tourists and others need to use common sense. Even before the death of El Mencho, the US State Department maintained varying travel advisories across Mexico depending on the state. Some areas carry do not travel warnings due to crime and kidnappings. Others are categorized as exercise increased caution. But in the wake of the takedown of Mexico's most wanted cartel boss and given the size, the violent nature and the reach of the Jalisco New Generation cartel and the subsequent violence that has put much of the country on edge. In the short term, it is wise to rethink those vacation plans. There is no doubt that the situation will stabilize given time. But over the next handful of weeks, there is a likelihood that the cartel will continue its efforts to both intimidate the public and demonstrate to the Mexican authorities that it won't be cowed by the death of El Mencho. This doesn't mean it's time to cancel every vacation to Mexico. Millions of Americans travel there, of course, safely every year. Resorts maintain strong security perimeters, and most cartel violence is targeted, not random. But in the current environment, maybe ask yourself, what's my risk appetite? If you are planning to travel in the next two or three or four weeks, maybe the answer is find alternate plans. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 25th February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbhefirsttv.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Sam.