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The President's Daily Brief
February 27th, 2026: U.S. Stealth Fighters Spotted Over Israel & Havana Oil Policy Shift
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It's Friday 27th February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, In a historic first, the US deploys F22 stealth fighters to Israel, signaling a dramatic escalation in milit coordination between Washington and Jerusalem as pressure mounts on Iran amid high stakes nuclear talks. I'll have the details later in the show. A quiet but significant shift in U.S. policy toward Havana as the Treasury Department moves to allow licensed companies to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba's private sector. Plus, President Trump announces he's ordering the release of long classified government UFO files. Yes, it's a UFO story promising new transparency on decades of unexplained sightings. What do they know? And in today's back of the brief, some unsettling findings from the world of artificial intelligence. Wait till you hear this one. As new research reveals that leading AI models chose to escalate to nuclear weapons use in the overwhelming majority of simulated war scenarios. Oh, good. But first, today's PDB spotlight. In a move that would have been almost unthinkable just a Decade ago, the US has deployed F22 Raptor fighter jets to Israel, the first known instance of American combat aircraft being based there for a potential wartime mission. Nearly a dozen of the stealth fighters have reportedly arrived at OVDA Air base in southern Israel. While the administration has not formally announced the deployment, flight tracking data, satellite imagery and videos captured by plane spotters confirm what appears to be a significant new chapter in U. S Israel military cooperation. Now, the F22 is the crown jewel of the US Air Force's tactical fleet. It is a fifth generation stealth fighter designed to dominate the skies. It can conduct air to air combat, carry out precision strikes on ground targets, escort long range bombers and defend against cruise missiles and drone swarms. Just last year, F22s escorted B2 bombers during US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Now positioning those aircraft inside Israel dramatically changes the operational landscape. If President Trump follows through on threats to strike Tehran's nuclear or missile infrastructure, American air power would already be forward deployed and integrated with Israeli defenses. And that's where the strategic shift becomes even more important. For decades, the US Went out of its way to avoid the appearance of close military integration with Israel during the first Gulf War. As an example, in 1991, we Washington took extraordinary steps to keep Israeli involvement quiet, fearing backlash from Arab coalition partners. Equipment was repainted. Cooperation was disguised. The goal was plausible distance. That era is clearly over after the Abraham Accords reshaped regional relationships, Israel was moved under U.S. central Command's area of responsibility. Military cooperation increased, joint exercises expanded, Missile defense coordination deepened. But basing American combat aircraft in Israel for potential offensive operations against Iran, well, that is a different level entirely. This deployment also reflects hard geopolitical realities. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reportedly refused to allow the US to use their territory or airspace for a strike on Iran. That significantly constrains traditional basing operations in the Gulf. Many US Aircraft have now been concentrated at Muwafiq Salty Air Base in Harden. By dispersing aircraft to Israel, the U. S Gains flexibility and survivability. Ovda Air Base, built in the early 1980s, includes hardened shelters, fuel storage and ammunition infrastructure capable of supporting large scale air operations. It can reportedly accommodate more than 100 aircraft, including refueling tankers. Israel's layered air and missile defense systems, among the most robust in the world, also provide protection for these high value American assets. If you're going to station some of your most advanced fighters within reach of Iranian missiles and drones, that's exactly the type of defensive umbrella that you want them under. Of course, all of this is unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Geneva, such as they are, which continued yesterday. Tehran continues to insist that uranium enrichment is its sovereign right and rejects dismantling key nuclear facilities. They also refuse to expand the negotiations beyond a narrow discussion on enrichment percentages. They've shown no willingness to negotiate on their ballistic missile program or their regional proxy network. So the timing of the arrival of these F22s. Well, it's no coincidence. The US has already surged two aircraft carrier strike groups into the region and positioned more than 60 additional fighter jets in Jordan. Now you have the arrival of the F22s in Israel. So whether this is designed primarily as deterrence or preparation for action, well, that remains to be seen. But one thing is certain. The visible integration of US Combat aircraft on Israeli soil marks a significant shift in posture, one that the Iranian regime is undoubtedly watching very closely. All right, coming up next, the US Eases up on its oil squeeze on Havana and President Trump moves to declassify decades of government UFO files. We'll have those stories after the break. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of time to talk about security, specifically your online security, and to tell you about a great company out there that's working hard to make people safer online. And of course, I'm talking about DeleteMe. 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Welcome back to the pdb. In a quiet strategic change, the U. S. Is carving a narrow pathway for oil to reach Cuba's private sector, offering limited relief for the island's fuel crisis, while, in theory anyway, keeping the communist government locked out. The Treasury Department announced that companies can apply for licenses to resell Venezuelan crude directly to private Cuban entities. What that means is Washington is allowing a tightly controlled exception within its sanctions framework. It's not the lifting of restrictions, but instead selectively permitting specific transactions. But in practice, it is something more strategic. Washington still controls Venezuela's export spigot, but it's creating a lifeline for private businesses in Cuba while attempting to bypass the regime in Havana. To understand why this matters, you have to go back to January. After the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, the US Effectively placed Venezuela's oil exports under its supervision. Since then, no cargo has moved without American authorization. And when shipments to Cuba stopped, the island's already fragile energy system began to buckle. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, we've seen blackouts spread across the communist island, fuel lines growing longer and power generation struggling to meet minimum demand. For over 25 years, Venezuela has served as Cuba's primary energy lifeline under a barter based pact, exchanging oil for services. When that pipeline shut down following Maduro's ouster, it exposed just how dependent Cuba's communist system had become on subsidized crude. Now Mexico briefly tried to fill that gap. However, those shipments also halted after a cargo vessel arrived in Havana back in January. That's according to shipping data. The result of the oil squeeze was predictable mounting hardship in a country already grappling with chronic economic mismanagement under the one party rule. So the Trump administration's message now appears clear. Treasury officials say any authorized transactions must support the Cuban people, including the private sector. Sales that would benefit the Cuban military or other state institutions will not be permitted. The idea is to channel fuel toward private businesses rather than government controlled networks. Now, a skeptic, of course, would note that the Cuban government and military will find workarounds essentially confiscating oil supposedly destined for the commercial sector. In addition, President Trump has made clear that countries previously receiving Venezuelan oil through swaps or debt arrangements, mainly China and Cuba, must now pay full market prices. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced the broader point. He rejected claims that American policy is responsible for Cuba's humanitarian crisis, arguing that the suff suffering stems from decisions made by the Cuban regime, not from U.S. sanctions. Still, this is where the policy gets more complicated. Even if private Cuban importers are allowed to buy oil, can they actually afford it? Cuba has struggled in recent years to finance spot market fuel purchases. And then, as mentioned, there's the more structural question. Cuba's communist government controls motor fuel distribution and power generation through state run companies. The infrastructure of storage facilities, distribution channels in the energy grid remains firmly in state hands. So even if the private entities manage to secure cargoes under U.S. approved licenses, what happens once that oil reaches Cuban soil? Does it remain in private circulation? Or does the same state apparatus, including military linked enterprises, claim the oil as their own? That's the tension at the heart of the strategy. Washington is attempting something precise relieve pressure on Cuban civilians while maintaining pressure on the ruling system. But in a country where the state dominates the energy sector, separating private from government, well, that may be difficult to achieve. Okay, I want to turn now to something that's been lighting up social media at least I think that's how the kids say it, right? Lighting up social media. Is that the hap term? Yeah. Six, seven, whatever. President Trump is reportedly opening the vault on one of Washington's most enduring mysteries, ordering federal agencies to release files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs. So let me walk you through what set this off, because it is rather interesting, if not a little bizarre. Last week, former President Barack Obama sat down for a podcast interview with a liberal commentator, Brian Tyler Cohen. During a lightning round segment, lightning round segment of their conversation, Obama was asked the question, are aliens real? The former president responded, quote, they're real, before quickly having a moment of realization as to what he just said, clarifying that he meant the odds are strong that life exists somewhere in the universe. So, in a further attempt to clean up his comments, former President Obama added that he saw, quote, no evidence of extraterrestrials during his time in office. Nothing to see here. Nope. And dismissed the idea of any secret facilities unless, as he put it, there was some enormous conspiracy that's kept from the president. But the exchange didn't stop there. Cohen followed up by asking President Obama, former President Obama, what the first question he wanted answered was when he took office. Obama's answer, quote, where are the aliens? Now, as you can imagine, that line traveled fast, and it didn't take long for the president to respond. When asked about former President Obama's remarks, President Trump suggested the former president had disclosed classified information, saying bluntly, quote, he's not supposed to be doing that, end quote. And that's where this move from podcast chat to formal government action. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the, quote, based on the tremendous interest shown, he's directing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and other administration officials to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life and unidentified aerial phenomena. That's what The Pentagon calls UAPs, or previously referred to, of course, as UFOs. Trump described the matters as, quote, highly complex but extremely interesting and important. So this isn't just some comment from the Commander in Chief. It's a directive to begin opening federal records on a topic that's obviously fascinated the public for generations and fueled countless conspiracy theories about what the government knows and is hiding from the public. To be clear, though, the Pentagon has addressed unidentified aerial phenomena before. Following a 2024 congressional hearing, the then Defense Department said it received hundreds of UAP reports, with 21 cases requiring, quote, further analysis because of what officials described as, quote, anomalous characteristics and or behaviors. End quote. And prior to that, of course, the Pentagon revealed the existence of the now supposedly shuttered A tip office. That's the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program. That was a unit tasked with investigating UFOs or UAPs. At the same time, the department said it found no evidence of extraterrestrial activity and that of course, just convinced folks that the government was hiding something. Now, myself, having worked for the government for a couple decades, I do find it hard to believe that they could keep something this earth shaking a secret. Or do I? Just kidding. I am not privy to any information concerning the existence of aliens. Or am I? Nah, still kidding. Public interest, of course, hasn't faded. If anything, it's intensified and Trump is clearly tapping into that now. Whether the forthcoming releases reveal anything new, well, that remains to be seen. And don't forget, it's the government. So it's likely there won't be a full release of all held materials. And undoubtedly some of those materials will be redacted, which of course will only fuel further speculation. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, a real World War Game scenario as new research finds that top AI systems repeatedly chose nuclear escalation in simulated conflicts. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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Experian hey PDB listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast Playlist look. If you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers and who doesn't come on, check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels, from national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means, of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's Harbinger, just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordan harbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. In research that sounds like a science fiction plot, some of the world's leading artificial intelligence models proved surprisingly eager to hit the nuclear button during simulated war games, far more so than humans in the same scenarios, according to a new study reported by Decrypt. Researchers at King's College London tested advanced models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic in a series of geopolitical crisis simulations designed to mirror real world conflict scenarios between nuclear armed states. The goal was to see how these systems reasoned through high stakes military decision making. Breaking down the study, the researchers said, quote, each model played six war games against each rival across different crisis Scenarios, with a seventh match against a copy of itself yielding 21 games in total in over 300 turns, end quote. They added that the models, quote, assumed the roles of national leaders commanding rival nuclear armed superpowers with state profiles loosely inspired by Cold War dynamics. And the results? Well, the results were, well, disconcerting across the simulations, the models repeatedly opted for nuclear escalation, in some cases even when diplomatic or conventional military alternatives were still on the table. In roughly 95% of the scenarios, at least one model supported the use of nuclear weapons as part of its strategy. That's 95% of the scenarios. Researchers noted that the systems often framed nuclear strikes in cold cost benefit terms, describing them as decisive moves that could end a war quickly or preserve long term advantage. Disturbingly, one of the lead researchers said the models seem to treat nuclear weapons as just another strategic lever rather than as a last resort option weighted by moral or humanitarian considerations, even when reminded about the devastating implications. During one conflict simulation, for example, Google's Gemini said, quote, if they do not immediately cease all operations, we will execute a full strategic nuclear launch launch against their population centers. The AI coldly added, quote, we will not accept a future of obsolescence. We either win together or perish together. End quote. Okay, thanks, Hal. Across the 21 games, the models never pursued meaningful de escalatory options. Instead, they deployed tactical nuclear weapons in virtually every scenario. Now, even Putin's attack dog and chief nuke saber rattler Dmitry Medvedev would balk at that. But not everyone is sounding the alarm just yet. Oh, look, there's an optimist in the crowd. Edward Geist, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, cautioned that the structure of the simulations themselves may have biased the results. If a scenario is framed in a way that rewards decisive escalation or presents limited off ramps, an AI model, much like a human strategist, might converge on nuclear use as a rational endpoint. In other words, the behavior could reflect the rules of the game more than an intrinsic desire to escalate. Or it could be that the AI models are psycho warmongers. To that point, others were less optimistic and warned the problem may be more foundational to the way that AI functions. A researcher from Princeton University told the New Scientist that, quote, it is possible the issue goes beyond the absence of emotion. More fundamentally, AI models may not understand stakes as humans perceive them, end quote. Notably, the study lands at a consequential moment. The Pentagon and militaries worldwide are increasingly integrating AI into logistics and intelligence, analysis and targeting, support and operational planning tools. While current policy maintains human control over nuclear decision making, AI is steadily being woven into the broader ecosystem, and that shapes how conflicts are modeled and managed. And the researchers warn that under real life scenarios involving compressed timelines, military leaders may face a stronger incentive to rely on AI. Now, this doesn't mean the machines are about to go full Skynet and launch World War three. But it is a sobering reminder that as AI systems become more capable and more deeply embedded in military planning, understanding how they reason about risk and escalation is essential. And yes, you're welcome for that cheery story. That, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 27th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and now, while stories of AI models launching nukes may not be a happy way to end the episode, may I just finish on a positive note by reminding you that today is Friday. And of course every Friday we launch a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report. It's much better than launching a nuke. You won't want to miss this weekend's show. Guests include former Director of Britain's MI6 intelligence service, Sir Richard Dearlove, as well as the brilliant weapons analyst and all around smart guy Ryan Macbeth. The episode hits the airwaves tonight at 10pm on the first TV and as always, can be found on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief as well as podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.