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The President's Daily Brief
February 3rd, 2026: Trump Tightens The Screws On Cuba & Iran Eyes Talks
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It's Tuesday 3rd February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, I'm still on the road. And, and why. Yes, thank you for noticing. I am wearing a pinstripe suit. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, President Trump sets his sights on Cuba taking direct aim at the communist regime by moving to choke off its oil lifeline. I'll have the details later in the show. Behind the scenes, diplomacy may be picking up between Washington and Tehran as mediators move to arrange a possible meeting in Turkey. Ah, so that's what President meant when he said help is on its way to the protesters who were killed by the tens of thousands. He meant diplomatic negotiations. Hmm. Plus, a deadly wave of attacks in Pakistan sparks a sweeping security crackdown with 145 militants killed over two days of fighting, raising new concerns about the fragile peace with India. And at today's back of the Brief, a follow up story that we flagged last week as SpaceX says it has successfully shut down Russian use of stolen Starlink terminals. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. The Trump administration's attention in Latin America has widened from Venezuela to include Cuba. And the White House is now squeezing that communist government at its most vulnerable choke point. That, of course, would be oil. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, Cuba's economy is currently swirling in the toilet bowl. After years of economic decay, corruption, chronic shortages and rolling blackouts, Cuba's energy supply has become the regime's Achilles heel and President Trump is now moving aggressively to exploit it. According to new reporting from the New York Times, the administration is working to completely cut off all remaining oil shipments to the island. The goal is deprive the Cuban government of the fuel that it needs to keep the lights on. The economy functioning well, sort of. And the regime stable well, kind of. Taken together, the move carries a very real risk of pushing Cuba's already fragile economy to past the breaking point. This strategy follows the collapse of Cuba's primary energy lifeline. That would be Venezuela. For years, Havana has depended heavily on subsidized oil shipments from Caracas, paid well, not just in cash, but through an oil for services arrangement, a barter system, if you will, that sent tens of thousands of Cuban doctors and medical personnel and security advisors into Venezuela to prop up the regime there. But with Maduro ousted and Venezuela's oil now largely diverted to other channels under US Control, that lifeline has effectively dried up. The White House has now made clear that it is prepared to punish any country that steps in. To fill the gap, President Trump threatens sweeping tariffs on nations that continue supplying oil to Cuba. Speaking aboard Air Force One, President Trump confirmed that pressure is the point. He said the US Is starting to talk to Cuba even even as his administration tightens the screws. The message from the White House seems negotiations may be possible, but only after Havana feels real pain. That combination of economic force and conditional diplomacy reflects a somewhat familiar Trump era. Apply maximum pressure first, and then talk Now. Mexico, in particular, finds itself caught in the middle of all this. Last year, Mexico accounted for roughly 44% of Cuba's foreign oil supply, and with Venezuelan shipments now gone, Mexico has effectively become one of Cuba's last remaining major oil suppliers. Mexican leaders are walking a diplomatic tightrope, caught between maintaining ties with Havana and avoiding punitive trade action from Washington. The threat of tariffs has injected fresh tension into U. S. Mexico relations and raised the stakes well beyond the Caribbean. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government would ask the US to clarify the scope of Trump's tariffs while also seeking alternative ways to help Cuba, which is all already experiencing frequent blackouts from its ongoing energy crisis. For their part, Cuban officials are pushing back. Havana is directly contradicting Trump, denying that any formal talks are underway. They've also accused Washington of deliberately worsening the island's humanitarian situation. Cuban leaders say fuel shortages are already straining hospitals and transportation and basic services, and warn that further cut offs will deepen the crisis. But the White House appears unmoved. From Washington's perspective, Cuba has survived for decades by external support, first from the Soviet Union, then from Venezuela, and now from whoever is willing to step in. By targeting oil, the administration is aiming at the regime's ability to function at even a basic level. And it's not just about economics. U.S. officials continue to frame Cuba as a destabilizing force in the region, accusing the government of propping up hostile actors, exporting repression, and undermining democratic movements across Latin America. The timing is also notable. With Venezuela sidelined, Iran under pressure, and China increasingly active in the Western Hemisphere. Although frankly losing leverage, the administration appears determined to reassert U.S. dominance closer to home. Cuba, long a symbol of communist defiance just 90 miles from Florida, is now firmly back in Washington's crosshairs. Whether this strategy forces meaningful concessions from Havana or simply deepens suffering for ordinary Cubans, well, that remains to be seen. But one thing is clear. The era of half measures appears to be over. By targeting Cuba's energy supply and threatening secondary penalties on foreign partners. President Trump is signaling that his administration is prepared to escalate sharply and to keep escalating until something gives. Alright, coming up next, behind the scenes, US Iran diplomacy may be taking shape in Turkey, while deadly attacks in Pakistan leave 145 militants dead and raise new questions about peace with India. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, folks who know me know that I'm quite fancy. A nice gin martini at the end of the day, maybe even two. But the reality is I, I don't want to pay for it the next day. That's why I love Zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink. Right? You gotta check this stuff out. The world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. And frankly, who knows more about rough mornings after drinking than PhD scientists? Here's the thing. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into toxic byproducts in the gut. 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I can't believe they're having a gender reveal for their dog. No, no, no, no. This is a breed reveal. Oh. So, yeah, they're finding out the breed of the puppy they're rescuing. So they could just be spending all their money on like, pet insurance. Instead, we got lemonade for Rosco and it covered vaccines, microchipping. We saved 90% on vet bills. Oh, he.
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Here we go.
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Welcome back to the PDB. It's been clear for weeks that the threat of military options against Iran has been rising as the Trump administration expands the US Military's posture in the region. Now, with military assets in place, Washington and Tehran are signaling that they're prepared supposedly to enter negotiations to ease tensions. According to a senior US Official who spoke to Axios, President Trump's administration has made clear that it's open to talks as early as this week. On the Iranian side, regime linked media signing a, quote, informed source is signaling something similar, suggesting direct discussions could follow in the days ahead. The administration's position is that Trump's interest in negotiations is genuine but conditional. As our regular PDB listeners are aware, American forces have been reinforced across the region even as Trump calls for a deal, something he's described as backing diplomacy with a, quote, massive armada. So the message is straightforward. Talks are an option, but so are military consequences. Islamic Republic media outlets suggest that any talks would likely be had by Washington special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, though the time and location remain fluid. Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are said to be working to arrange a potential meeting in Ankara or Istanbul. And while Iran signals interest in negotiations, it comes with narrow limits. Tehran wants talks confined strictly to its nuclear program, while rejecting any discussion of its ballistic missile arsenal or its support for regional proxy groups, as the regime has long insisted. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons even as it enriches uranium levels with no civilian justification or restricts international inspections and expands missile capabilities that threaten American allies and interests. Trump has repeatedly warned Iran against expanding its missile stockpile, which is a red line for the administration. The White House's view is that sustained pressure helped force earlier engagement, and that same pressure is shaping this moment. Whether Iran is prepared to move beyond that familiar talking point, though, is another matter entirely. Speaking to reporters, Trump addressed the moment directly after Iran's supreme leader warned that any American attack could trigger a wider regional war. Trump did not dismiss the risk, but he did not rush past diplomacy either, saying, hopefully, we'll make a deal. If we don't make a deal, we'll find out whether or not he was right, end quote. Regime officials have attempted to project slight optimism. In a CNN interview, Arabchi said he was, quote, confident that we can achieve a deal on the nuclear issue, while still stressing that Tehran does not trust Washington fully as its negotiating partner. Well, look, if you, if you can't get the Iranian regime to trust you, you must be doing something right. Meanwhile, Israel is watching closely. Prime Minister Netanyahu met with IDF Chief of Staff Ayel Zamir following Zamir's return from recent meetings in Washington that focused on Iran. Israeli media reports that prevailing assessment from those discussions is that the US Is inching closer to launching an attack on Iran than It was just a week ago. Witkoff is expected to arrive in Israel today to meet with Netanyahu and Samir to address the Trump administration's approach to the regime. Okay, I want to turn our focus to a deadly wave of attacks in Pakistan that's rippling well beyond the country's borders. Nearly a dozen coordinated strikes across districts killed civilians, triggering a massive security response, leaving at least 145 militants dead. What unfolded over the weekend wasn't a single bombing or localized ambush. It was a coordinated surge of violence that erupted almost simultaneously across Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province. Pakistani authorities are calling it one of the deadliest flare ups in years because of how wide ranging and deliberate the attacks were. And as the security response intensified, so did fears of this violence could spill outward, reopening one of South Asia's most volatile fault lines between Pakistan and India. Authorities say militants fired rifles and hurled grenades at police stations, government offices, rail infrastructure, and even at a high security prison. Civilians were caught in the middle, which is a sharp break from the more contained, security focused attacks that Pakistan has grown used to seeing. Reuters reports that at least 48 people were killed in the attacks, most of them civilians, along with members of Pakistan's security forces. And the group behind the attacks is one Pakistan has been battling for decades. The Baloc Liberation army, known as the bla, is a separatist militant group that has waged an insurgency in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province. As for the aim of the bla, the group looks to achieve a greater autonomy and a larger scale of the region's vast natural resource wealth, accusing Islamabad of exploiting the province while leaving its population economically impoverished. In recent years, the BLA has escalated attacks on security forces, infrastructure and civilians to force its cause onto the national stage and the international stage. The group, as a result, is banned in Pakistan and is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. the BLA quickly claimed responsibility for this latest violence, saying it launched a coordinated operation dubbed Black Storm, aimed at Pakistani infrastructure and security forces across the province. Security officials in Islamabad say the attackers deliberately blended in with civilians to maximize casualties. Pakistan's junior interior minister said the militants entered markets and public spaces dressed as civilians before opening fire, even using civilians as human shields. What makes this latest violence even more striking is that it comes despite advanced intelligence warnings and limited preemptive action. Balochistan's chief minister said authorities had indications that a large scale operation was being planned, yet militants still managed to strike across multiple districts before security forces could fully respond. And once that response began well, it was sweeping. Over roughly 40 hours, Pakistani security officials launched operations across the province. The chief minister said at least 145 militants were killed. The BLA violence followed military raids earlier last week in which security forces killed 41 insurgents at two militant hideouts in separate gun battles, raising the possibility that the coordinated assault over the weekend was at least in part retaliation. And here's where the violence pushes beyond Pakistan's borders. Islamabad has long accused the BLA of receiving backing from India. That's an allegation that New Delhi has consistently denied, accusing Pakistan of deflecting blame for its own security failures. The exchange, although brief, was enough to revive one of the region's most combustible disputes, raising fears that militant violence in Balochistan could once again drag the nuclear armed rivals toward escalation. And in today's Back of the Brief, an update on a story that we covered last week. With SpaceX now blocking Russian access to stolen Starlink systems. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important tip for home safety. Look, if you own a handgun, this message is for you. Now, handgun owners know this. Often your weapon storage options likely fall into too frustrating trading categories, right? Locked away and out of reach or unsecured and vulnerable. And frankly, neither is acceptable. And that's where Stopbox comes in. Stopbox USA solved this with the Stopbox Pro. 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That's get.stash.com PdB Again, get.stash.com PDb this is a paid non client endorsement, not representative of all clients and not a guarantee. These investment advisory services are offered by Stash Investments LLC and SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Investing involves risk. An offer is subject to terms and conditions in today's Back of the Brief, we're following up on a story that we brought you last week after accusations surfaced that Russian forces were using Starlink Internet terminals on the battlefield in Ukraine, touching off a very public spat between Elon Musk and Poland's foreign minister. You'll recall that the foreign minister accused Starlink, and by extension Musk, of quote, making money on war crimes, claiming Russian troops were using the satellite Internet system to support drone strikes against Ukraine. Musk pushed back hard, insisting that SpaceX does not enable Russian military use and that any Starlink terminals operating on the Russian side were unauthorized, likely captured or stolen Ukrainian units. Musk also eloquently described the Polish foreign minister as, quote, a drooling imbecile. Now we're getting new reporting that suggests that SpaceX has taken concrete steps to shut down that Russian access. According to Musk, the company has moved quickly to identify unauthorized terminals and block them from operating, cutting off connectivity that Russian troops may have been exploiting on the battlefield. Musk said the measures appear to be working, while also signaling that SpaceX remains open to further coordination if new abuses are detected. That assessment is being echoed by Ukraine's Defense Ministry. Ukraine's defense officials say the first steps taken to block Russian use of Starlink are already delivering real results. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umarov confirmed that cooperation with SpaceX has improved controls over where and how Starlink terminals can operate, helping ensure that the system is used only by authorized Ukrainian forces. Umarov said that the effort is ongoing, describing the process as a technical and operational challenge, but one that is moving in the right direction. The episode shows just how central commercial technology has become to modern warfare. Starlink has been a critical communications lifeline for Ukraine since the early days of Russia's invasion, enabling everything from battlefield coordination to drone operations and frontline connectivity. At the same time, it points to the risks when that same technology ends up in enemy hands, intentionally or otherwise, and the pressure private companies face when their systems are pulled into active conflicts. For SpaceX, this appears to be an attempt to walk a narrow line, maintaining Starlink's role as a defensive tool for Ukraine while aggressively preventing its misuse by Russian forces. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday, 3rd February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com Also, remember to take a moment of free time if you have any free time, and check out our rather astounding YouTube channel that's on YouTube, which makes sense. Just search up Presidence Daily Brief. If you like what you see, hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.