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The President's Daily Brief
February 7th, 2025: Trump Prepares Long-Awaited Peace Plan To End Ukraine War & North Korea's Major Leap In Ballistic Missile Technology
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- [00:12]
Mike Baker
It's Friday, 7th February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Still on the road, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, we'll discuss reports that the Trump administration is preparing to unveil their long anticipated peace plan to end Vladimir Putin and his Russian regime's war in Ukraine at a security conference in Germany next week. Later in the show, Ukrainian officials say they've observed a marked improvement in the accuracy of North Korean ballistic missiles fired on their cities. Now, that's suggesting that the Hermit Kingdom is using the conflict to successfully test and improve their missile technology. Plus, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces that he'll be skipping the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa later this month over their controversial land seizure bill, while accusing their leaders in Johannesburg of pushing anti Americanism. And in the back of the brief, President Trump signs an executive order Thursday imposing sweeping sanctions on the controversial International Criminal Court for targeting the US And Israel. But first, today's PDB Spotlight reports suggest that President Trump's administration is preparing to unveil their long awaited peace plan to bring the Russia Ukraine conflict to an end. According to White House sources who spoke exclusively with Bloomberg. Retired General Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, will lay out their blueprint for peace at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week. European allies will reportedly be briefed privately by Kellogg ahead of a public announcement by Trump at a later date, though it's not clear yet when the president will reveal his plans to the world. While details remain scarce at this time, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the plan will likely involve freezing the conflict along the current front lines, leaving the roughly 20% of territory currently occupied by Russia in limbo, while providing Kyiv with robust security guarantees to ensure Moscow's forces can't attack again down the road. But what those security guarantees will look like, well, that's unclear. Ukraine's ultimate goal is to be granted membership in the NATO alliance, though Trump has previously said that he opposes the idea. And even leaders in Kyiv have acknowledged that such an outcome is unlikely, at least in the short term. As we discussed on yesterday's pdb, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has floated alternatives to NATO membership, including having the US Provide Kyiv with a nuclear deterrent or for European allies to deploy a multinational peacekeeping force consisting of at least 200,000 troops to enforce any potential peace deal. The Bloomberg report also notes that Kellogg has signaled in recent weeks that the US Would like to see elections held in Ukraine once a hypothetical ceasefire is in place, and many expect that the Trump administration will push for guarantees from Kyiv on that score as part of any peace proposal. Now, as a reminder, Ukrainian elections were scrapped during the war, and Zelenskyy has been leading under an extended period of martial law since the invasion by Putin in 2022. Zelenskyy, for his part, has repeatedly said that he's open to holding elections once the war is over and martial law is lifted. He's also said in recent weeks that he's ready to engage in direct peace talks with Putin alongside leaders from the US and eu. Putin has also signaled a willingness to engage in negotiations, though he's qualified his statements warning that Russia's territorial gains in eastern Ukraine must be accepted by the west if they want talks to get off the ground. But many in the west, well, not surprisingly, remains skeptical that his supposed interest in a peace deal is genuine. It's worth noting that Trump has threatened the Putin regime with massive tariffs and sanctions on Russian products if they fail to come to the table, and a growing band of Russian elites are reportedly pressuring Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to the war to alleviate their mounting economic problems. According to White House sources, discussions have progressed between the Trump administration and and Ukrainian and Russian officials, and plans are currently underway for Trump to meet face to face with both Putin and Zelensky, though a timetable for these meetings remains unknown. In the meantime, Zelenskyy is attempting to keep the Putin regime on the back foot. According to unconfirmed reports from Russian military bloggers, the Ukrainian military launched a new offensive in Russia's partially occupied Kursk region. Just this week, Ukraine mounted a military operation by way of background and a reminder back in early August inside the Russian territory, catching the Putin regime by surprise. At the time, they managed to seize roughly 500 square miles of territory and capture hundreds of Russian prisoners of war. But since that point, Russia has mounted several counteroffensives, clawing back roughly half of the area captured by Kyiv's military. Officials in Kyiv have not yet commented on the reports of a major new operation in the region, though in remarks on Wednesday, Zelenskyy suggested their activity in Kursk could prove critical to strengthening their negotiating hand before potential peace talks with Russia get underway. Alright, coming up after the break, Ukrainian officials are warning that North Korea is using the war with Russia to test and improve the accuracy of their ballistic missiles, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio snubs the G20 while accusing South Africa of pushing an anti American agenda. I'll be right back.
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- [07:26]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB. Sticking with Ukraine North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russian forces against Kiev have displayed a dramatic increase in accuracy in recent weeks, raising fears that Pyongyang is using the battlefield to refine its missile technology in real time. According to a Ukrainian military source, some of these weapons now land within 160 to 320ft of their intended targets. That's an alarming leap. Inaccuracy from past performance when they would veer wildly off course, sometimes missing intended targets by as much as 2 miles. The troubling advancements seen in the more than 20 North Korean ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine since late January suggests that Pyongyang is exploiting the war as a testing ground, gaining invaluable data to improve its arsenal. The military source reports that forensic analysis of missile debris has not revealed major design changes. But experts speculate that North Korea has likely enhanced its navigation systems, incorporated Russian guidance components, or fine tuned targeting protocols. Based on battlefield feedback since late 2023 Russia has launched an estimated 100 North Korean K23, K23A and K24 short range ballistic missiles at Ukraine. A weapons expert at Seoul's Asian Institute for Policy Studies warns that these developments have disturbing implications that extend far beyond Ukraine. If North Korea has indeed mastered the process of iterative battlefield testing, its missile program could pose an even greater threat to South Korea, Japan and the United States, not to mention that Pyongyang could leverage this newly honed technology to ramp up arms sales to rogue states and militant groups. Adding to these concerns, South Korean intelligence suggests that in exchange for North Korean munitions, Russia is supplying Pyongyang with missile components, financial assistance and space technology, an arrangement that's allowing Pyongyang to boost weapons development at an unprecedented pace. Despite official denials of formal arms agreements, Moscow and Pyongyang have visibly strengthened their military partnership since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Putin back in September of 2023. Last year, the two powers signed a treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership, further cementing their military and economic ties. During a visit to Seoul in late 2023, then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sounded the alarm, warning that Moscow Pyongyang alliance represents a major threat to global non proliferation efforts. While North Korean ballistic missiles still make up only a fraction of Russia's total strikes, they are uniquely concerning. Their warheads exceed one ton, far larger than many Russian equivalents, and can be fitted with nuclear warheads. Their range, reaching up to 500 miles, also surpasses Russia's Iskander M missile, which carries a smaller payload and has a range of approximately 300 miles. The situation underscores a grim reality. Russia's war in Ukraine is in part rewriting the global security equation. Pyongyang, long viewed as an isolated and somewhat ineffective weapons manufacturer, is gaining invaluable combat experience, developing battlefield tested capabilities that could reverberate worldwide. Okay, shifting to the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is taking a hardline stance against South Africa, accusing the country of, quote, anti Americanism and announcing that he'll boycott the upcoming G20 summit hosted in Johannesburg later this month. The move follows mounting friction over land expropriation policies and South Africa's leadership of the Global Forum. For some context, South Africa took over the G20 presidency in December and will remain in that role through November. Rubio made the announcement Wednesday on X, where he amplified President Trump's claim from Sunday that South Africa is unjustly seizing private property. Rubio posted quote, south Africa is doing very bad things, expropriating private property, using G20 to promote solidarity, equality and sustainability. In other words, he said, dei, diversity, equity and inclusion and climate change, end quote. America's top diplomat made it clear that he has no interest in engaging with a government that he believes is openly hostile to US values. Rubio added in his post on X that quote, my job is to advance America's national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti Americanism, end quote. South Africa's president appeared to respond in his annual State of the Nation address on Thursday, warning against, quote, the the rise of nationalism, protectionism and the pursuit of narrow interests and the decline of common cause. Rubio snub of the G20 summit follows Trump's decision to potentially suspend future US funding to South Africa pending an investigation into the country's controversial land policies. Just last month, South Africa enacted a law permitting land expropriation without compensation in certain cases, part of a long standing effort to address the deeply entrenched racial disparities in land ownership. South African officials insist the law is nothing out of the ordinary. They argue it aligns with land use policies in the US where eminent domain allows the government to seize land for public use under the doctrine of, quote, just compensation. However, the issue remains politically charged. In South Africa, land ownership is still overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of the white minority. That's of course a legacy of apartheid. Since the end of the system in the early 1990s, the government redistributed around 19 million acres. Now, for reference, at least in the U.S. that's an area roughly the size of the state of South Carolina, and courts have ordered limited land returns to families displaced under previous regimes. South Africa's foreign minister wasted no time rejecting Rubio's accusations, stating on X, quote, there is no arbitrary dispossession of land or private property. She also took aim at Rubio's broader criticism of South Africa's G20 leadership, stressing that the country's agenda extends beyond climate change, with a focus on ensuring fair treatment for nations in the global South. But US South Africa relations have been deteriorating for years, driven by a range of foreign policy disputes. Under the Biden administration, tensions flared over South Africa's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine yet yeah, that's a tough one. And it's deepening ties to brics, the economic bloc originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The friction intensified when South Africa brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide in Gaza, an allegation that the Biden administration dismissed as, quote, meritless. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, President Trump signs an executive order imposing sweeping sanctions on the controversial International Criminal Court. I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, the US Administration is taking action against the International Criminal Court. That's a body that's faced mounting criticism over their targeting of Israeli leaders since the war in Gaza broke out. On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the icc, accusing the body of failing to remain impartial and harboring a severe bias against the United States and Israel. The order includes both financial sanctions and visa restrictions on ICC officials and their family members found to have assisted in investigations of US Citizens or allies. That's according to a report from Reuters. The action comes just one week after U.S. senate Democrats blocked a Republican led effort to pass a bill called the Illegitimate Court Counteraction act, which would have imposed similar sanctions on the icc. A fact sheet on the executive order provided by the White House states the ICC was designed to be a court of last resort. Both the US And Israel maintain robust judiciary systems and should never be subject to the jurisdiction of the icc. The timing of Trump's latest executive order is no coincidence, coming during Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's first visit to the US Since Trump's return to the Oval Office. As you may recall, the ICC sparked US Bipartisan backlash in November after issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoel Gallant for alleged war crimes related to the conflict in Gaza. Their arrest warrants were issued alongside warrants for several Hamas leaders, something that Trump's executive order decries as a shameful moral equivalency. In Europe, however, the court's ruling divided leaders, with several countries vowing to arrest Netanyahu if he set foot on their soil and others appearing torn about how to proceed. But the US And Israel are not members of the ICC and therefore not subject to its rulings. Analysts have said given the diplomatic pressure that Trump's new sanctions will put on the court, their influence will likely start to diminish. Among America's allies, the ICC has long faced criticism for acting with extreme bias towards Israel while saying next to nothing about countries with long records of human rights abuses such as Iran. During his first term, Trump got sideways with the ICC after the court's prosecutor announced plans to launch an investigation of alleged U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan. The U.S. revoked the prosecutor's visa and said they'd use force against the court if they attempted to detain any American citizens. But the Biden administration, well, they took a softer approach with the icc. While they condemned the warrants for Israeli leaders, they opted not to apply diplomatic pressure directly on the court. Officials with the icc, meanwhile, have been preparing for this eventuality. Last month, the court took measures to shield their staff from possible sanctions, paying salaries three months in advance. Still, the court's president has warned that US Sanctions risk undermining the court's operations and, quote, jeopardize its very existence. And that, my friends, is the president's Daily brief for Friday 7th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and of course, well, look at that. It's Friday, the end of the week. And that means that the PDB production team is busy putting the finishing touches on our newest episode of our extended weekend show. And that's, of course, the PDB Situation Report. Now this week, our guests include author Gerald Pozner and former Ohio Congressman Jim Renaissi. We'll take a look at the upcoming release of jfk, RFK and MLK assassination files with Gerald Pozner. He's written excellent books on both JFK and Martin Luther King's assassinations. And we'll dive into US Government waste and spending with former Congressman Renacy. And I know you might be shocked to learn that the US Government possibly isn't an efficient steward of taxpayer money. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.