The President’s Daily Brief – February 9, 2026:

U.S. Alleges Secret Chinese Nuclear Tests & Iran Talks Breakdown

Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief, The First TV

Episode Overview

On this episode, host Mike Baker examines a new U.S. accusation that China has secretly conducted nuclear weapons tests, raising alarm about eroding arms control norms and a potential new nuclear arms race. The show also covers the latest developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations—marked by sharp disagreement and little progress—and the aftermath of a deadly mosque bombing in Pakistan. The “Back of the Brief” segment explores the U.S. Navy’s recent real-world use of a ship-based laser weapon against drones at sea.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Allegations of Secret Chinese Nuclear Testing

[00:12 – 07:12]

• Breaking the Nuclear Test Taboo:
  For decades, adversaries have avoided nuclear weapon detonations—even underground—preserving a global testing ban. U.S. officials now say China has crossed this “red line.”
• The Accusation:
  Under Secretary of State Thomas D’Nanno told a Geneva disarmament forum that China conducted at least one low-yield nuclear test in June 2020, using “decoupling” techniques to muffle the blast and evade detection.
  • “These were not computer simulations or subcritical experiments, but actual nuclear explosions deliberately designed to be small enough to evade detection.” – Mike Baker [01:19]
• International Detection & Denials:
  International nuclear monitoring organizations say no such explosion was detected; experts note low-yield tests could slip through their networks.
  • China “flatly denies the charge, accusing Washington of exaggerating a so-called ‘China nuclear threat’ and fueling an arms race.” [02:22]
• Why It Matters:
  • Arms control treaties like New START have expired, leaving no formal limits on U.S. or Russian arsenals; China was never part of these agreements and is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities.
  • U.S. estimates: China’s arsenal at 600 warheads (projected to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by mid-2030s).
• Rising Risk:
  The loss of treaties and unwritten rules (“We don’t test anymore”) means the “guardrails” of nuclear competition are “bending.” There’s growing uncertainty over whether the U.S. should also resume nuclear testing in response.
  • “Trust seems hard to find, although honestly, trust means nothing without verification, which has always been problematic.” – Mike Baker [04:27]
• Potential Consequences:
  Quiet resumption of testing would speed up weapons development, increase mistrust, risk miscalculation, and make future arms control deals much harder.

2. Breakdown in U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks

[07:30 – 17:39]

• Backdrop:
  Talks resume after months of standoff, protests violently suppressed in Iran, and U.S. military buildup in the region.
• Conflicting Accounts:
  President Trump called recent indirect talks in Oman “very good,” suggesting Iran “wants to make a deal very badly,” but Iranian officials disagreed, labeling Trump a “liar” and insisting no softening of their positions.
  • Trump: “Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly. We have to see what that deal is.” – Trump, via Mike Baker [09:25]
  • Iranian spokesperson: Trump is a “liar,” Tehran “has not softened its position.” [11:05]
• How the Talks Unfolded:
  Indirect negotiations, mediated by Oman’s foreign minister. U.S. led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi claims “direct contact” with the Americans, but only briefly and with clear limits.
  • “Iran would only reconsider direct talks if it sensed, ‘seriousness and trust from Washington.’” [12:41]
  • Mike Baker: “As I mentioned, the negotiations were indirect… tells you a lot about how fragile—or maybe the word I’m looking for is ‘useless’—this discussion channel still is.” [11:55]
• Sticking Points:
  • Iran insists on continuing uranium enrichment and refuses to discuss its ballistic missile program, proxy networks, or response to domestic unrest.
  • Iran offers monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief; U.S. and allies reject this, citing Iran’s history of blocking inspectors.
  • “Uranium enrichment remains the central sticking point in these talks.” – Mike Baker [14:40]
• Pressure Continues:
  As talks close, U.S. Treasury imposes new sanctions on Iranian oil exports and tankers, signaling no letup in pressure.
• Outlook:
  Channel is open, but with hard-line rhetoric, unresolved disputes, and increasing sanctions, optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough remains low.

3. Pakistan Mosque Bombing & Aftermath

[17:39 – 22:49]

• Attack Recap:
  Suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque near Islamabad kills 31, injures 169; Islamic State affiliate claims responsibility.
  • Gunman fought through security, detonated vest inside; “the deadliest assault in Islamabad since the 2008 Marriott Hotel bombing.” [19:56]
• Terror Group’s Motive:
  Islamic State frames Pakistan’s Shiite population as supplying fighters to opposing militias in Syria.
• Security Response & Blame:
  Pakistan’s Interior Minister claims mastermind (an Afghan national) was trained in Afghanistan and financed by India, but provides no evidence.
  • Minister: “If one blast happens, 99 others are being foiled.” [21:19]
• Afghan-Pakistani Tensions:
  Taliban-led Afghan government condemns attack but rebukes Pakistan for “irresponsibly linking the violence to Afghan territory in order to shift the blame.” [21:58]
• Wider Pattern:
  Islamic State, Pakistani Taliban, and Baloch separatist groups have all escalated violence amid Pakistan’s fragile security climate.

4. Back of the Brief: US Navy’s Laser Weapon in Action

[22:49 – End]

• Major Milestone:
  USS Preble uses HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance), a 60 kilowatt directed-energy weapon, to shoot down four drones during a live maritime test—surpassing prior limited firing tests.
  • “A destroyer used a ship-mounted laser to shoot down multiple drones, marking a real step toward turning directed energy weapons into frontline tools.” – Mike Baker [22:53]
• Quiet Revelation:
  The event was revealed via a defense earnings call and Pentagon documentation—not through official announcements.
• Why It Matters:
  Lasers offer potentially “unlimited magazine” capability for defending against drone swarms and small boats—key threats in modern naval environments.
• Future Outlook:
  USS Preble is the only ship fully equipped with HELIOS; successful tests position directed-energy weapons as central to future naval defense strategy.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On nuclear testing rules breaking down:
  “For years, nuclear testing wasn’t just restricted, it was treated as reckless, unnecessary, and destabilizing ... Now senior officials are openly questioning whether rivals are already testing and whether the US should reconsider its own restraint.” – Mike Baker [03:28]

• On arms control challenges:
  “The treaties are gone. Trust seems hard to find, although honestly, trust means nothing without verification, which has always been problematic.” – Mike Baker [04:27]

• On U.S.-Iran talks:
  “Does it seem like kowtowing to the mullahs and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps if the White House allows them to dictate the terms and parameters of any talks?” – Mike Baker [10:47]

• On Pakistan’s security response:
  “‘If one blast happens, 99 others are being foiled.’ That line of argument was echoed by Pakistan’s Defense Minister, who said the attack showed that militants operating from Afghanistan were capable of striking even the capital.” [21:19]

• On the Navy’s HELIOS weapon:
  “That makes Preble something of a floating preview of where the fleet could be headed… Helios can keep on firing. And that, my friends, is the President’s Daily Brief for Monday, February 9th.” – Mike Baker [25:48]

Important Timestamps

• [00:12] – Episode Overview, Introduction of Topics
• [00:56 – 07:12] – U.S. Accuses China of Secret Nuclear Tests
• [07:30 – 17:39] – Breakdown of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
• [17:39 – 22:49] – Pakistan Mosque Bombing & Security Fallout
• [22:49 – 26:08] – U.S. Navy’s Operational Use of Laser Weapon
• [04:27, 09:25, 11:05, 12:41, 14:40, 21:19, 25:48] – Notable Quotes

Style & Tone

Mike Baker delivers analysis with dry wit, skepticism about international institutions, and a sense of urgency about unraveling global norms. His tone is worldly, pragmatic, and tinged with dark humor, particularly about bureaucratic responses and diplomatic brinksmanship.

This summary covers all critical themes and events for listeners who missed the episode, maintaining the show’s direct, analytical, and occasionally sardonic tone.