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The President's Daily Brief
January 12th, 2026: U.S. Military Preparing to Strike Iran & ISIS Targeted in Syria
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Hey, Mike Baker here. Look, if you like the President's Daily Brief. And, well, how could you not consider supporting the show by becoming a PDB Premium member. It's very simple. You'll get every episode ad free, no interruptions, just the news and analysis. All you have to do is visit PDB premium.com to join today. That's PDB premium.com. Foreign 12 January welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, President Trump is weighing options for possible strikes against Iran as the regime unleashes a deadly crackdown at home and warns that any U.S. action would trigger retaliation against the U.S. and Israel. Later in the show, U. S Forces unleash large scale strikes on ISIS targets across Syria. And as Washington signals the fight against the terror group is far from over. Plus, the US And Venezuela take tentative first steps toward restoring relations. Baby steps, but hey, still steps as both sides signal a diplomatic reset after Nicolas Maduro's ouster. And in today's back of the brief possible ripple effects from the capture of Maduro as Nicaragua frees political prisoners just days after similar moves in Venezuela. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. New reporting from the Wall Street Journal and New York Post says the Trump administration is now actively weighing military strike options against Iran, including discussions about which Iranian sites could be targeted if the regime continues its violent crackdown on protesters. U.S. officials stressed that no final decision has been made. No forces have been repositioned, no equipment moved. But the key here is that this is no longer abstract contingency plan. According to multiple officials, the conversations have moved into specifics. What targets would matter, what kind of strike would be effective, and what are the objectives of any potential strike. Now, this reporting is almost certainly not accidental, letting details like this leak. Well, it's a message to Tehran's leadership. The window to step back is closing and the events on the ground may soon outrun their ability to control them. President Trump has said repeatedly that the US Would not stand by if the Iranian regime carried out violence against its own people. And behind the scenes, the Pentagon is now doing what it always does when a president draws a public red line. They're mapping out options to enforce that red line. And if recent events tell us anything, the Mullis and the irgc, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, they have little reason to assume that this president is bluffing. And for their part, the regime appears to be taking the threat seriously. Iranian officials have responded with explicit warnings of their own, saying that if the US Strikes Iran over the protests, troops in the region would be legitimate targets and that Israel would also be in the crosshairs. This is classic Iranian messaging. Tehran is trying to raise the perceived cost of US Action by broadening the battlefield, essentially saying this would not stay confined to Iranian territory or a single exchange. Any strike, they argue, would trigger regional consequences. That said, it's not entirely clear what Iran is truly capable of at the moment. The regime is still Recovering from the 12 Day War, their economy is crumbling, its security forces are stretched thin, and it's facing the most serious domestic unrest in years. All of that raises real questions about how much capacity Tehran actually has to follow through on its threats. That's not to say that Iran is powerless or. Or harmless. Even in a weakened state, the regime does retain the ability to act in a significant manner. Of course, all of this is happening as the situation on the ground inside Iran is deteriorating rapidly. Over the weekend, protests turned significantly more deadly as the regime escalated its response. Security forces were filmed firing directly into crowds in multiple cities. Hospitals reported treating protesters with gunshot wounds. Most notably, Iran's regular army publicly announced it would join the crackdown, marking a sharp escalation. Until now, the regime had relied primarily on police units and paramilitary. Bringing in the army signals that the leadership views this unrest as essentially an existential threat. What began weeks ago as demonstrations driven by economic hardship has now evolved into something far more dangerous for the mullahs and their irgc. That would be open demands for the end of Iran's theocratic system. Protesters are no longer asking for reforms. They're calling for the regime to go. And their response, well, as you might have expected, has been brutal. The death toll continues to rise, with rights groups reporting several hundred killed already and thousands arrested across more than 100 cities in all 31 of the country's provinces. The government has imposed an unprecedented communications blackout, cutting off Internet access, messaging apps, and even landline phone service. That, of course, makes it harder to verify events and suggests that the regime is preparing for sustained unrest, not some quick containment. Authorities have also turned to intimidation and psychological pressure. Prosecutors have warned that protesters accused of damaging property or clashing with security forces could be charged as, quote, enemies of God, a crime that carries a death penalty under Iranian law. Of course, the regime in this particular charge is equating regime leaders to God. Enemies of the regime. Equal enemies of God. My, how braggadocious of them. I'm not sure if God would agree with the mullah's Interpretation here. Iranian intelligence services have also sent mass text messages urging citizens to spy on demonstrations and report their own neighbors. Even by Iranian standards, this is a full spectrum crackdown. Which brings us to the big picture. Iran is approaching a dangerous inflection point because the scale and fury of the demonstrations are now seriously testing the regime's ability to maintain control. Live fire, mass arrests, a near total communications blackout, and the decision to bring the regular army into the streets. These aren't the actions of a government confident it can contain the situation. They're the actions of a regime bracing for a prolonged confrontation with its own population while facing the potential of losing their almost 50 year grip on power. At the same time, the risk of outside involvement is growing. The Trump administration is making clear that further bloodshed could carry consequences beyond condemnation. The aim is deterrence, forcing Tehran to think carefully but before escalating further. But so far, given the rising death toll, thousands of arrests and actions of the Iranian military, police and paramilitary, that deterrence has yet to happen. All right, coming up next, U.S. forces launch large scale strikes on ISIS targets across Syria. And early signs of a diplomatic reset as Washington and Caracas take first steps toward restoring relations. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment of your time to talk about security, specifically your online security, and to tell you about a great company out there, DeleteMe, that's working hard to make people safer online. Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online. At a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable, it's easier than ever. 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The US has carried out new large scale airstrikes across Syria, continuing a sustained campaign aimed at eliminating Islamic State threats to American and partner forces. It's worth beginning with the scale of the operation. U.S. central Command says more than two dozen aircraft struck 35 ISIS targets spread across the country using precision guided munitions. Centcom's message was consistent with how this ongoing campaign has been framed since its inception. This is about removing threats before they can reach American or allied forces. Despite the terror group's already degraded state. In its statement posted on X, the command stated, quote, the strikes targeted ISIS throughout Syria as part of our ongoing commitment to root out Islamic terrorism against our warfighters. Adding a warning that's become familiar under the Trump administration. If ISIS harms Americans, it will be hunted down wherever it operates. And the operation itself tells you something about how Washington views this fight. It's named Operation Hawkeye Strike, honoring two US Soldiers from Iowa. Obviously, the Hawkeyes, they're from the state of Iowa. Sergeant Edgar Brian Torres Tovar and Sergeant William Howard, who you may remember were both killed by an ISIS fighter near the ancient city of Palmyra back in December. The symbolism behind these strikes explains the lack of patience for anything resembling restraint. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth captured that emotion in a post to X, saying, we will never forget and never relent. The weekend strikes build directly on the broader campaign launched after the Palmyra attack. As we previously discussed, on the 19th of December, US aircraft carried out what administration officials described as a massive retaliatory operation hitting ISIS infrastructure and weapons depots across Syria. President Trump followed that strike with a warning posted to Truth Social that left little room for interpretation, saying, all terrorists who are evil enough to attack Americans are hereby warned and then in all caps, so you know it's serious. You will be hit harder than you have ever been hit before, end quote. What makes the timing of the latest operation especially notable is what was happening in parallel. The strike came as US Special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack, confirmed he met with Syria's new leadership in Damascus to discuss the country's political and economic future. Barrack described the moment as a potential opening, writing that President Trump viewed it as, quote, pivotal opportunities and had agreed to lift certain sanctions to, quote, give Syria a chance to move forward. That contrast tells you a lot about how the administration is approaching Syria. Military pressure on ISIS isn't being used to make room for diplomacy. It's being maintained as a condition of it. Okay, shifting over to Latin America. Washington And Caracas are beginning to feel their way toward a diplomatic reset of sorts, as both governments explore whether relations can be rebuilt following the removal of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. I'll start with what happened on the ground. A small U.S. delegation quietly traveled to Caracas, not for handshakes or photo ops, but to take stock. According to the State Department, the diplomats, accompanied by a security detail, were there to conduct a preliminary assessment of whether the US Embassy in Caracas could, at some point in the near future, reopen. The delegation emphasized the visit as exploratory, a way to gauge conditions before any broader decisions can be made. At the same time, Caracas is signaling that it wants to engage as well. Venezuelan officials confirm they plan to send a delegation to the US Though they noticeably avoided offering any timeline. I'd like to point out that any such visit would, of course, require sanctions waivers from the Treasury Department, underscoring just how constrained that process remains. In a statement, the Venezuelan government, led by newly named President Delsey Rodriguez, the former VP under Maduro, said it decided to begin what it called a, quote, exploratory process of a diplomatic nature with Washington aimed at restoring missions in both countries. Rodriguez, who is a longtime Maduro loyalist, now finds herself trying to navigate a political landscape reshaped almost overnight. And that balancing act is delicate, to say the least. On one hand, Rodriguez faces pressure from the Trump administration to meet its demands and demonstrate a break with the past regime. On the other, she has to contend with military hardliners and regime loyalists still furious over Maduro's capture, a development that has left Venezuela's power structure, of course, shaken and unsettled. Not to mention, there's the ongoing influence from outside players, including Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran. Although to be realistic, Cuba is a basket case. Russia is preoccupied with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and of course, Iran is busy shooting protesters and trying to maintain a kung fu like grip on power. Now you can hear Rodriguez try to walk that tightrope. In public remarks. While recounting calls with the left wing presidents of Brazil and Colombia and Spain, Rodriguez condemned what she described as, quote, grave, criminal, illegal, and illegitimate aggression by the US yet just hours later, speaking in downtown Caracas, she struck a different tone, portraying engagement with President Trump as the best path to defend Venezuela's interests and even to, quote, ensure the return of Nicolas Maduro and First Lady Celia Flores. End quote. Well, someone needs to tell her that that's not happening, but it is an example of having to play both sides in order to at least temporarily survive. So from Washington's perspective, the outreach fits into a broader pressure campaign. The Trump administration has been clear about using political and economic and strategic leverage to shape Venezuela's next chapter. Now, to understand how unusual this moment is, it helps to remember just how far relations had fallen over the past several years. The US And Venezuela severed diplomatic ties during Trump's first term in 2019, after Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's legitimate president. Maduro responded by tightening his grip on power. And the then Trump administration shuttered the US Embassy in Caracas. Since then, US Officials have traveled to Venezuela sparingly, to say the least, largely due to security concerns. And of course, those concerns haven't eased. They've intensified. The renewed diplomatic probe is unfolding amid instability following the month's special forces raid, during which Maduro was placed into into U.S. custody. As a result, the State Department is now urging Americans to leave Venezuela immediately, citing reports that pro regime militias known as colectivos have established roadblocks and stopping vehicles and searching passengers for Americans or perceived supporters of the US So as diplomatic contacts resume at the official level, conditions inside Venezuela remain volatile. While many opponents of the regime are celebrating Maduro's capture, loyalists of Maduro have taken to the streets to denounce the operation as an act of imperial aggression. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief possible ripple effects from Maduro's capture as another authoritarian government in the region blinks and Nicaragua releases detainees after pressure from the U.S. we'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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In today's Back of the Brief, the Nicaraguan government has announced the release of over a dozen political detainees just 24 hours after Washington demanded freedom for the prisoners. As we've been tracking, Venezuela, obviously under sustained US Pressure, has begun releasing political detainees of its own, looked at side by side. Meaning what's happening in Venezuela, what's happened in Nicaragua? The timing suggests something larger taking shape across the region. Left wing authoritarian governments that long resisted outside scrutiny appear to be now recalculating as Washington's posture grows more assertive and harder to ignore, frankly, especially in the wake of Maduro's capture in Managua. Ortega's regime offered few details. Nicaraguan authorities announced prisoner releases but did not say how many were freed or whether they'd been detained for political reasons or or whether those released would be later placed under house arrest. Now, that kind of ambiguity, that sort of lack of transparency, is familiar not just in Nicaragua but across the region's authoritarian governments. It's how the regimes ease outside pressure without fully loosening their grip that speaks to the importance, of course, of outside monitors. Several human rights organizations that track political detentions in Nicaragua identified at least 19 people released over the weekend, but opposition figures were even more direct. Anna Vigil, a former political prisoner herself and head of the UNAMOS movement, told Reuters that those released were in fact political detainees and that several are close to the opposition. She identified a former mayor and an evangelical pastor by the name of Rudy Palazzios among those freed, along with members of Palazios's family. Now, Palacios detention helps explain why this release, even though minimal, well, carries weight for those unfamiliar. He was arrested in July after criticizing the Ortega regime for human rights abuses and for supporting demonstrators during the 2018 protests that demanded Ortega's removal from power. Those protests ended in a brutal authoritarian crackdown. At least 350 people were killed, hundreds more detained, and the regime moved decisively to consolidate control over the judiciary, the security forces, and the electoral system, effectively dismantling organized political opposition. And despite the weekend release, it's still believed by Washington that several dozen political prisoners remain behind bars in Nicaragua, setting the stage for another demand of further releases. So what matters is, of course, what comes next. Nicaragua's limited release appears to be a calibrated response to mounting US Pressure, an early and quick concession from a regime still testing how much it can give without giving in. And that, my friends, is the president's Daily brief for Monday 12th January. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and hopefully you had the chance to catch the latest episode over the weekend of our PDB Situation Report. Former CIA colleague and Caraca station chief Rick de la Torre joined us for an insightful conversation on all things Venezuela while we dug into the Iranian protests and possible regime collapse with Benham Ben Taliblu from the foundation for Defense of Democracy's Iran program. You can catch it and past episodes of the Situation report on our YouTube channel. Just go to YouTube and search for at President's Daily Brief. Or you can find them wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay co. It.