The President’s Daily Brief – January 13th, 2026
Podcast Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Theme:
A high-stakes update on escalating Western enforcement against Russian shadow fleet oil tankers, the operational failures of Russian-supplied air defenses in Venezuela during the dramatic Maduro capture, and President Trump’s blunt warnings to Cuba as Havana faces its greatest crisis in decades.

Overview

On this episode, host Mike Baker delivers an incisive morning rundown of the most urgent international affairs shaping U.S. policy. The focus is on the United Kingdom preparing to actively join the U.S. in seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers despite Moscow’s escalatory moves, the surprising collapse of Russian air defenses in Venezuela during the Maduro raid, and Trump’s direct threats pressuring Cuba as its oil lifeline collapses. The episode closes with a skeptical, detailed look at viral rumors of a U.S. "sonic weapon" in the Caracas operation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. UK to Join US in Seizing Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers

Timestamps: [00:12]-[06:50]

• Shifting UK Policy:
  The UK is preparing to align fully with the US in physically seizing Russian-linked oil tankers (“shadow fleet”) violating sanctions on international waters.

  • Britain has clarified the legal basis for detention, specifically targeting vessels using fraudulent flags, paperwork, or deceptive tactics.
  • UK’s move marks a significant escalation—from intelligence-sharing to direct enforcement, leveraging its “blue water navy [and] deep operational integration with US forces.”

• Russian Reflagging Gambit:

  • Russia has begun reflagging many of these tankers with Russian flags mid-voyage, replacing obscure registries with the national tricolor.
  • Purpose: “To raise the political and military cost of enforcement. Boarding an anonymous tanker… is one thing. Boarding a ship that Russia claims as its own is something else entirely.” — Mike Baker [01:22]

• Impact & Real-World Outcomes:

  • Despite Russian warships and aircraft presence, US forces have continued to board and seize tankers. “Russian forces ultimately backed off rather than escalate.” [02:55]
  • This demonstrates that, even under direct Russian claim, sanctions enforcement can succeed, with Moscow showing “restraint over escalation.”

• Broader Geopolitical Stakes:

  • Each seizure is “a direct challenge to Moscow's ability to sustain revenue under sanctions.” The episode frames these seizures as moving from “sanctions as policy to seizures as practice.” [05:00]
  • “More enforcement means more encounters. More encounters mean more chances for miscalculation: a radio call misunderstood, an aircraft flying too close, a captain who refuses to comply.” [05:55]

• Key Quote:
  “The broader takeaway is this: Russia tried to raise the cost of enforcement by making the shadow fleet more visible, national, and confrontational. The US tested that assumption, and now the UK appears ready to test it as well.” — Mike Baker [06:37]

2. Russian Air Defenses in Venezuela: Failure Exposed

Timestamps: [09:00]-[13:07]

• Operation Maduro (Operation ‘Absolute Resolve’):

  • US helicopters swept into Caracas to capture Nicolas Maduro.
  • Russian-provided S-300 and BUK-M2 air defense systems, long touted as a shield by Venezuela, failed spectacularly—they were “not fully connected to radar and in some cases had never been deployed at all.” [10:05]

• Failures Rooted in Years of Decay:

  • Corruption, lack of spare parts, sanctions, and shifted Russian priorities (diverted to the Ukraine war) eroded system readiness.
  • “Venezuela's air defense network existed more on paper than in reality.” [10:59]

• Notable Expert Insight:

  • “After years of corruption, poor logistics, sanctions, all those things would have certainly degraded the readiness of Venezuela's air defense systems.” — Rick de la Torre, former CIA Station Chief [Interview cited at 11:11]

• On-the-ground Reality:

  • Satellite images showed BUK systems sitting idle in warehouses, targets for airstrikes.
  • Even widely-touted portable SAMs were ineffective—only one attempted launch was noted, swiftly countered by US forces.

3. Trump’s Ultimatum to Cuba Amidst Mounting Crisis

Timestamps: [13:09]-[16:30]

• Collapse of Cuba’s Oil Lifeline:

  • With Venezuela’s regime ousted and US seizures of tankers, Cuba’s subsidized oil supply was abruptly cut.
  • “That arrangement is now, of course, severed… Oil lifeline has left Havana exposed with very few options.” [13:17]

• Trump’s Warning Delivered via Social Media:

  • Trump on Truth Social:

    “Cuba lived off Venezuelan oil and money for years… THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA. 0. I strongly suggest they make a deal… BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.” [14:06]

  • Trump frames the US as now both liberator and guarantor in Venezuela:

    “Venezuela now has the US, the most powerful military in the world, to protect them and protect them we will.” [15:00]

• Cuba Responds:

  • Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel fires back on social media, accusing Washington:

    “Those who turn into a business even human lives have no moral authority to point the finger at Cuba in any way.” [14:32]

  • Diaz-Canel claims US sanctions cost Cuba over $7.5 billion in one year and denounces what he calls “draconian measures imposed by Washington.” [15:42]

• Backdrop of Crisis:

  • Food, fuel shortages and blackouts worsen: “Cuba right now is enduring its worst economic crisis in decades, and Venezuelan oil wasn’t fixing those problems—it was masking them.” [15:18]
  • There are no current talks between Washington and Havana; Cuba demands relief up front, while the US insists on concessions.

4. "Back of the Brief": Viral Rumors of a US Sonic Weapon in Caracas

Timestamps: [18:01]-[20:30]

• The Eyewitness Account:

  • A Venezuelan security guard claims US raiders used a weapon inducing intense internal head pain—“as if his head was, quote, exploding from the inside”—and that other soldiers suffered nosebleeds, vomiting, and collapsed. [18:46]

• Social Media Speculation:

  • His story was amplified after being shared by White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt.

• Host’s Take:

  • “Is it possible the US has advanced capabilities it doesn't advertise? Of course… directed energy systems, electronic warfare, sound weapons… under development for decades.” [19:29]
  • But he argues far simpler explanations abound:
    • Use of flashbangs (“standard tools in raids like this”), which can produce pressure waves, disorientation, nausea, nosebleeds—especially indoors at night.
    • Add to this the sensory chaos of “drones, electronic jamming, explosions, and the psychological shock of being outgunned.” Memories can easily blur into perception of something ‘exotic’. [19:36]

• Key Quote:
  “Do directed energy or sound weapons exist? Well, absolutely. But whether this type of weapon was deployed during the Maduro capture… that’s not known.” — Mike Baker [19:56]

Memorable Quotes with Timestamps

• On UK’s Seizure Authority:
  “The UK move comes as Russia has altered its own strategy at sea, reflagging large portions of its shadow fleet with Russian flags, often in the middle of an active voyage.” — Mike Baker [00:40]

• On the Madure Raid’s Air Defense Failure:
  “In short, incompetence and decay played an important role in the operation. And this was a failure years in the making.” — Mike Baker [10:50]

• On the Significance of ‘Shadow Fleet’ Enforcement:
  “What we’re seeing now is the physical enforcement of economic pressure. Ships stopped, boarded, and taken—not just listed on a spreadsheet.” — Mike Baker [05:18]

• On the Cuba Crisis:
  “Now that cover is gone. Diaz-Canel blames Washington’s pressure campaign for the island’s collapse…but Trump has been blunt about where his trajectory will lead. Havana posting, ‘it’s going down, it’s going down for the count.’” — Mike Baker [15:30]

• On Social Media Claims of Sonic Weapons:
  “Used indoors at night or in rapid succession, [flashbangs] can cause ringing ears and intense head pressure, and loss of balance, nausea, and even nosebleeds... it’s not hard to see how memory and perception might blur into something far more exotic.” — Mike Baker [19:39]

Notable Segments (Timestamps)

• UK Preparing Direct Seizures: [00:12] – [06:37]
• Russian Air Defense Failures in Venezuela: [09:00] – [13:07]
• Trump’s Warning to Cuba: [13:09] – [16:30]
• Rumors of US Sonic Weapons in Operation Maduro: [18:01] – [20:30]

Summary

This episode spotlights a dramatically shifting security climate: Western enforcement of oil sanctions is moving “from the spreadsheet to the high seas,” putting Russia’s fragile economy—and potentially its appetite for confrontation—to the test. The U.S. raid in Caracas showcased not only American operational reach but the hollowing-out of Russian arms exports in the real world. Trump is wielding the moment to corner Cuba, whose last economic cover has been swept away. And even as viral rumors fly about secret Pentagon technology, Baker drills down to a skeptical, clear-eyed appraisal: In a time heavy with brinkmanship and misinformation, “the simplest explanations are often the right ones.”

For those tracking America’s most pressing foreign policy challenges, this episode is a concise, hard-hitting morning intelligence brief—minus the classified annex.