← The President's Daily Brief
The President's Daily Brief
January 14th, 2026: What Could A Strike In Iran Look Like? & A Terror Labeling Shakeup
00:24:41
Loading summary
Transcript1 lines
- [00:12]
A
It's Wednesday, the 14th of January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, it is true, I am back on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, with Iran's regime acknowledging thousands of protesters killed and President Trump reviewing his opt, we examine what a US Strike on Iran could look like. From cyber pressure to economic punishment to limited military action. Later in the show, President Trump follows through on a long standing promise formally designating three branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. Plus, Trump gets ready to meet with Venezuela's Maria Corinna Machado as the White House continues to consider the country's post Maduro political future. And in today's back of the brief, paranoia in Pyongyang. Well, hey, that's, that's not new. As Kim Jong Un replaces top members of his personal security team, it's a rare shakeup that may point to fears of assassination plots. Honestly, Nicholas Maduro replaced some of his close in protection detail with Cuban officers due to his paranoia and, well, look how that turned out. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. It's becoming increasingly clear that President Trump's red line with Iran has been crossed. Over the past several days, reports out of Iran have grown more grim by the hour. Human rights groups say the body count among protesters continues to rise, with estimates now reaching into the thousands. And notably, the regime itself has begun to acknowledge the scale of their violence. No longer denying mass casualties, but instead justifying them pointing the finger at supposed foreign agents like, well, the usual suspects, Mossad and the CIA. Of course, of course, it's the Great Satan. It has nothing to do with the repressive regime and their standard practice of shooting protesters. From the very start of these protests, President Trump has been explicit about where his line is, the killing of civilians by their own government. And based on everything we're seeing now, that line appears to have been crossed in a significant way. Which brings us to the key development driving today's PDB Spotlight. On Tuesday, President Trump convened a formal meeting with senior national security officials to review his options for responding to the crackdown in Iran. That meeting has already happened. It included top leadership from the State Department, the Defense Department, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And while no formal decision was reportedly announced or made, the significance of that meeting shouldn't be ignored. It was a structured senior level review of real options. Now, before we go any further, it's important to set guardrails here. As you know, we're not in the business of speculating on the pdb. We can't tell you exactly what the President's next move will be, and chances are we won't know until it's already in motion. But we can walk through the menu of options in front of the White House. Those options generally fall into three buckets. Cyber, economic, and kinetic. Now, I'm not including diplomatic negotiations as a bucket, because, well after you've already killed a few thousand protesters, negotiating a diplomatic settlement that simply keeps the regime in place might seem off putting to the Iranian population that has died or are still on the streets risking their lives anyway. Taken together, these three buckets of options could help explain what striking Iran might realistically mean. Let's start with cyber. One option on the table is the use of offensive cyber operations against the Iranian regime. That could include disrupting military communications, interfering with internal security networks, or degrading the systems used to censor the Internet and track protesters. Cyber pressure has several advantages. It can be fast, it can be targeted, and in many cases, it avoids the immediate visual escalation that comes with airstrikes. But cyber operations also have limits. Their effects can be temporary, difficult to measure in real time, and easy for the regime to downplay or conceal. Still, they can weaken Tehran's ability to control events on the ground without handing it the kind of dramatic imagery that it would use for propaganda. Next is economic pressure. And this is an area that we've already seen in action. President Trump has announced a 25% secondary tariff on any country doing business with the Iranian regime. That's a significant move. It doesn't just target Iran, it targets anyone doing business with the regime. And it raises the cost of continued engagement with Tehran at a moment when the Iranian economy is already under severe strain. Now, this fits squarely into Trump's broader maximum pressure strategy. It's designed to force choices both inside Iran and among its remaining partners. And then, of course, there's the kinetic option. This is the category that gets the most attention, and understandably so. If the US Were to take kinetic action, it would almost certainly focus on high value targets tied directly to the regime's ability to carry out violence against protesters. That could be command and control nodes, internal security infrastructure, and select military facilities connected to the crackdown. But here's where things get a little or a lot complicated. As of now, the Pentagon has not repositioned forces in preparation for an imminent strike. Now there's no aircraft carrier sitting off Iran's coast. That tells us something important. If kinetic action were taken in the near term, it would likely be limited, targeted and standoff in nature, long range airstrikes rather than a sustained campaign. Of course, none of these options come without risk. That's my statement of the obvious for the day. Some administration officials have expressed concern that overt U.S. action could feed regime propaganda, allowing Tehran to claim that the protests are foreign driven. Although at this stage I suspect the protesters would like their protests to include some foreign involvement, others worry the opposite, that a weak or symbolic or feckless diplomatic response could demoralize protesters who believe Washington's warnings were real and have taken courage and strength from those warnings. That tension is central to the decision facing the White House. So you ask, and it's a good question to ask, where does that leave us? Well, President Trump has spent the past two weeks escalating his language, tightening economic pressure, and now formally reviewing his options. Tehran, meanwhile, continues to crack down while issuing threats and floating negotiations all in the same breath. What comes next, of course, will depend on if the regime believes that they can end the protests simply by killing more protesters. Alright, coming up next, the US Designates three branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. And Trump prepares to meet with Venezuela's Maria Corinna Machado as the White House weighs the country's post Maduro political future. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, it is 2026. I suspect you knew that already. So did you make any New Year's resolutions? I'll tell you, I made a few, including to get better sleep every night. That's a good one. Sleep is basically the foundation for the rest of your day. With a good night's sleep, you've got more energy, you handle stress better, you think more clearly. It's, it's, it's a pretty good thing, frankly. And to help make it a reality, what I do is I turn to CBD products from CB Distillery. Their Slee Sleep Gummies have a combination of CBD and melatonin and they do the trick. Seriously. You'll wake up refreshed and ready to take on whatever the day brings. Look, over 90% of CBD customers say they sleep better with CBD. And CB Distillery has options for more than just sleep. They've got solutions for stress, mood and pain after workouts. Everything from CB Distillery is premium quality, third party tested and free of artificial dyes or fillers. And they've got over 2 million. That's 2 million happy customers and a 100% money back guarantee. So if you're ready to start the new year off, right? Go to cbdistillery.com and use the code PDB for 25% off. That's cbdistillery.com code PDB CBD specific product availability depends on individual state regulations welcome back to the PDB the Trump administration has formally designated the Lebanese, Jordanian and Egyptian branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. It's a sweeping move that escalates you US Pressure on Islamist networks linked to Hamas and reshapes how Washington treats the group across the Middle East. The action reflects a long debated shift in U.S. policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood, which has operated for decades as a fragmented transnational movement with branches taking sharply different paths and actions in different countries. Under the new framework, Washington will now formally treat several of those branches as part of the global terrorist ecosystem rather than just political offshoots. That's according to a report from the Associated Press. Under the designations announced on Tuesday, the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood received the most severe classification. The State Department designated the Lebanese branch as both a foreign terrorist organization, or fto, and a Specially Designated Global terrorist, or sdgt. I mean, because it is Washington, so you need to use acronyms. It's a dual listing that triggers sweeping criminal penalties, freezes assets and immigration restrictions. The group's leader was also individually designated as a global terrorist. That designation reflects the Lebanese branch's activity since Hamas 7 October attacks on Israel. As EAP notes, Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood linked elements launched rockets toward Israel in the aftermath of the attacks, tying the group directly to regional hostilities rather than political activism alone. The Egyptian and Jordanian branches, by contrast, were designated by the Treasury Department as Specially Designated global terrorists, or SDGTs, a slightly narrower legal step, but one with significant consequences. U.S. officials say both branches provided material support to Hamas, placing them squarely within Washington's Post 7 October enforcement framework against actors enabling the group. While all three designations aim at cutting off funding and international support, the differences between the designations matter. An FTO designation carries criminal liability for anyone providing material support, along with more formal travel and immigration restrictions, while SDGT listings focus on financial and sanctions based pressure. Together, they mark what the administration describes as the opening phase of a broader campaign to dismantle Muslim Brotherhood linked networks that engage in or support terrorism. So what kind of reactions can we expect from the Middle East? Well, the geopolitical fallout is likely to be immediate and uneven. The move is expected to be welcomed by countries such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, both of which view the Muslim Brotherhood as a destabilizing force or direct threat. The Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928, but Egypt banned the group back in 2013, while Jordan outlined the Brotherhood's activities in April of last year. Other regional governments that have long treated the Brotherhood as a threat, including Saudi Arabia, which designated it as a terrorist group in 2014, will also likely support the action. By contrast, countries such as Turkey and Qatar, which have historically hosted or tolerated Brotherhood affiliated figures, are expected to view the designations with skepticism or quiet concern. One regional analyst told the AP it would be a thorn in bilateral relations beyond the Middle East. The designations carry important implications for Western security. AP notes that branding major Muslim Brotherhood branches as terrorist organizations could significantly impact visa applications, asylum claims and refugee screenings in the US And Europe. Affiliations that were once treated as political could now trigger automatic terrorism related flags, tightening scrutiny across immigration and intelligence channels. The administration is framing the action as just the beginning. In its announcement, the State Department said the designations represent a first step in an ongoing effort to deny resources and operational space to Muslim Brotherhood chapters worldwide. The message is clear. In the Trump administration's view, the Muslim Brotherhood is no longer a political gray zone. Certain branches are now being treated as active contributors to regional violence, and the legal machinery of US Counterterrorism policy can be brought to bear. All right, up next, President Trump is preparing to sit down at the White House with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Carina Machado as Washington weighs how and by whom Venezuela will be governed. As we've been tracking here on the PDB inside the Trump administration, there's been an active debate over how Venezuela should be governed now that Nicolas Maduro is out. Machado has long been the most recognizable face of the democratic opposition, especially abroad. But at least for now, Trump has made a more pragmatic call, keeping Delsey Rodriguez, Maduro's former vice president and a regime insider, in place as the US Takes direct responsibility for overseeing the fragile transition now. Rodriguez has already been sworn in as president, though even that title comes with an asterisk. White House officials haven't said whether she's meant to govern long term or simply hold the seat while Washington determines the next phase. That uncertainty reflects Trump's preference for keeping options open. Machado, meanwhile, will arrive in Washington on Thursday with real international stature but also with unanswered questions about her political footing inside Venezuela. You may remember she won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for her work promoting democracy and human rights, emerging from months of hiding as a fugitive under the Maduro regime to eventually accept the award in Oslo, Norway, last month. In October, she dedicated that prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause. That moment elevated her global profile, even as the realities inside Venezuela remained far more complicated. But that praise soon turned into a bit of a public sideshow. In a Fox News interview, Machado said she intended to share the Nobel Prize with Trump, a gesture that the Nobel Institute rejected, pointing out that the award cannot be revoked or transferred or shared. Trump didn't hide his irritation. Well, that's a surprise. Responding to the institute quote, norway was very embarrassed for not awarding him the prize outright. When asked by reporters whether Machado's gesture would change his thinking about her potentially leading Venezuela, Trump replied, I have to speak to her. Speaking after Maduro's removal, he said it would be very tough for Machado to lead the country, adding, she doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. And that line, well, that line matters more than it may appear. At first glance, it signals that Trump is weighing domestic legitimacy just as heavily as international approval. All of this, of course, is happening as the situation inside Venezuela changes rapidly. As PDB listeners know, in the aftermath of Maduro's ouster, Trump announced that the US Would govern Venezuela until a, quote, proper transition could be arranged. That approach has drawn strong pressure from some foreign policy hawks on Capitol Hill who want a faster push toward elections. But the White House is emphasizing caution. Trump told NBC News that elections are unlikely within the next 30 days and suggests that the US could oversee Venezuela for years if necessary. For now, the question in Washington isn't whether the US Will shape Venezuela's transition. That's already happening. The question is who Trump ultimately trusts to carry it out. Whether that ends up being a familiar opposition figure with international clout or the former regime insider in Maduro Crony now, that remains to be seen. Okay, coming up in today's back of the brief signs of growing paranoia in Pyongyang as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un revamps his personal security detail amid fears of internal threats. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the new year, which we are doing, many of us are looking to build more intentional lives, right? To live deliberately and better aligned with our purpose and our values. That's why I want to tell you about Glorify. Glorify is the number one Christian daily devotional app. Glorify can help you lead a more intentional life. They've got a 21 day challenge that helps build that simple but powerful habit of seeking wisdom and guidance every day. You can start your morning with a Bible passage, a daily devotional or an immersive walk with God. In the middle of a busy day, you can listen to a curated playlist for quiet reflection. And they've also got sleep meditations to help you wind down and reflect on your day. Look over 20 million people. That's 20 million people have used Glorify to deepen their relationship with God. They've provided an opportunity now for PDB listeners to get full access to Glorify for less than $30 for the entire year. When you download the app@glorify-app.com PDB feel closer to God this year with Glorify. Get full access all year for just $29.99 at glorifi-app.com PDB that's glorifi-app.com PDb in today's back of the brief North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is changing the people closest to him, replacing three senior officials tasked with keeping him alive as paranoia over assassination threats at the top of the regime intensify. And considering recent events, namely the capture of Maduro, he may not be wrong in his thinking. The shift first came into focus through South Korea's Unification Ministry. Officials in Seoul say Kim quietly installed new chiefs across three state agencies responsible for his protection, including the elite bodyguard command that handles counter drone and electronic threats. And I want to underline one detail early. This wasn't announced by the regime. It was noticed. Ministry officials say the reshuffle became clear only after Kim appeared at a military parade back in October, surrounded by a visibly different security detail. But taking a step back, that timing is not coincidental. It lines up closely with Kim's decision to align more closely with Russia in support of Moscow's war. Of course, in Ukraine. That move didn't just deepen Pyongyang's alignment with the Kremlin, it fundamentally changed the threat environment around Kim. An analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification told AFP that changes in Kim's security detail came amid conclusions that the heightened attention to Moscow and Pyongyang's relationship increased the risk of an assassination attempt, potentially even involving Ukrainian actors. In other words, once Kim tied himself more directly to Putin's conflict, the risks for the regime stopped being rhetorical, and South Korea's intelligence service has been warning about this trajectory for some time. According to Seoul, Kim has moved to upgrade his personal security posture, even seeking advanced communications jamming systems and drone detection equipment. These upgrades are designed to counter modern, more remote assassination methods, the kind that bypass traditional layers of protection. I also think it's worth paying attention to who Kim is choosing to appear alongside publicly as this security posture tightens. He's been seen increasingly with his daughter, including during his inspection of Pyongyang's nuclear powered submarine that's under construction. As we've previously discussed here on the pdb, analysts widely see her as the eventual successor in the nuclear armed regime, which only, of course, raises the stakes for inner circle security. And of course, there's another backdrop here that's nearly impossible to ignore. Recent headlines appear to be weighing heavily on Pyongyang's leadership, particularly the US Capture of Venezuelan strongman Maduro. That type of operation represents a nightmare scenario for Pyongyang. The regime has long warned of U. S led decapitation strikes, accusing Washington of seeking to remove leaders from power. So for Kim, the sudden fall of a US Adversary reinforces a familiar authoritarian lesson. Personal security and regime security are inseparable. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 14th January. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and if you get the chance, please stop by our YouTube channel. That's @ President's Daily Brief. If you like what you see, and hopefully that's the case, please hit the subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay.