The President's Daily Brief

Episode: January 15th, 2025: French Troops to Ukraine? & A Russian Mercenary in Texas
Host: Mike Slater (filling in for Mike Baker)
Release Date: January 15, 2025

1. French Troops Considered for Ukraine Deployment

In the opening segment, Mike Slater discusses the ongoing deliberations between Paris and Kiev regarding the potential deployment of French troops to Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia.

• Key Discussions:

  • Leaders Involved: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron.
  • Deployment Roles: The talks oscillate between combat roles and non-combat roles such as training Ukrainian soldiers, replacing border guards from Belarus to free up Ukrainian troops, or serving as peacekeepers to enforce a potential ceasefire.
  • Historical Context: This is not the first time such a proposal has been floated. Last February, Macron suggested deploying NATO forces in a combat capacity, which was swiftly dismissed by NATO officials.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Zelensky on Social Media:

    "As one such guarantee, we discussed the French initiative to deploy military contingents in Ukraine. We addressed practical steps for its implementation, potential expansion, and the involvement of other nations in this effort."
    [Timestamp: 01:30]

• Challenges Highlighted:

  • Russian Opposition: The Kremlin has outright rejected the idea, threatening attacks regardless of the national affiliation of the troops deployed.
  • European Divisions: Internal disagreements within European nations, particularly among France's far-right and far-left leaders, who argue that deploying troops could escalate tensions with Russia and endanger French lives.
  • Logistical Concerns: Potential logistical nightmares and the fear of Russian retaliation complicate the feasibility of such deployments.

• Trump's Influence:

  • With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office, there is speculation on how his approach to the Ukraine conflict might change. Trump has indicated plans to engage in peace talks with both Zelensky and Putin post-inauguration, emphasizing a European-led coalition to manage and secure a ceasefire.

2. NATO Launches Baltic Century to Protect Undersea Cables

Mike Slater shifts focus to Eastern Europe, highlighting NATO's new initiative aimed at safeguarding critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

• Baltic Century Initiative:

  • Objective: To protect undersea cables that carry 95% of global internet traffic and facilitate $10 trillion in daily financial transactions.
  • Launch Details: Introduced by Secretary General Mark Rutte following a summit in Helsinki with key EU members like Finland, Germany, and Poland.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Mark Rutte on the Mission's Urgency:

    "Across the alliance, we have seen elements of a campaign to destabilize our societies through cyber attacks, assassination attempts, including possible sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. We will do everything in our power to fight back."
    [Timestamp: 07:45]

• Motivation Behind the Initiative:

  • Recent Sabotage Incidents:
    • November Incident: A Chinese-flagged ship dragged its anchor over 100 miles along the Baltic seabed, severing cables between Sweden, Lithuania, Finland, and Germany.
    • October 2023 Attack: Damage to the Baltic connector gas pipeline and undersea cables linked to a similar Chinese vessel.
    • Christmas Day Attack: A Russian-linked tanker damaged power cables beneath Finland and Estonia, part of Moscow's broader destabilization efforts.

• Strategic Implications:

  • Russian and Chinese Sabotage: These acts are part of hybrid campaigns to weaken European stability and economic security.
  • NATO's Response: Deployment of advanced frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and naval drones to monitor and deter further malicious activities.
  • Environmental and Security Risks: The involvement of Russia’s shadow fleet, designed to circumvent sanctions, poses significant economic, environmental, and security threats.

• Future Prospects:

  • Germany and Sweden's Contributions: Germany has pledged substantial naval resources, while Sweden plans to provide warships, enhancing NATO's collective defensive capabilities in the Baltic region.
  • Adaptive Strategies: NATO intends to adapt its resources and surveillance technologies to address evolving threats effectively.

3. TikTok's Uncertain Future Amid Potential Government Acquisition by Elon Musk

The podcast delves into the escalating tension surrounding TikTok's operations in the United States, highlighting China's considerations and Elon Musk's potential involvement.

• Current Situation:

  • Imminent Ban: A nationwide ban on TikTok by January 19 would remove the app from Apple and Android app stores. Existing installations might continue to function temporarily but would face operational issues without updates.
  • ByteDance's Legal Battle: TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, is contesting the ban in the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing on First Amendment grounds.

• Elon Musk's Potential Role:

  • Acquisition Consideration: With TikTok's U.S. operations valued between $40 to $50 billion, there is speculation that Elon Musk might acquire this segment to prevent its shutdown.
  • Strategic Benefits for Musk: Integrating TikTok into his existing empire, including X (formerly Twitter) and Xai (AI startup), could enhance user base analytics and advertising revenues.
  • Political Connections: Musk's substantial contributions ($250 million+) to Trump's reelection campaign and his role in the Department of Government Efficiency position him as a pivotal figure in negotiations with Beijing.

• Challenges and Implications:

  • Financial Hurdles: The high acquisition cost poses a significant financial challenge for Musk, who is already managing debt from his acquisition of Twitter/X.
  • Chinese Government Stance: Chinese export laws restrict the sale of TikTok's proprietary algorithms without state approval, hindering any potential deal.
  • Trump Administration's Position: While Trump has hinted at negotiations over TikTok's fate, his administration's composition, including China hawks like Marco Rubio, suggests complex internal dynamics.

• Future Outlook:

  • Supreme Court Decision: Expected by January 19, this ruling will be pivotal in determining TikTok's operational status in the U.S.
  • Negotiations: Behind-the-scenes talks between Beijing, Musk, and the Trump team could influence the final outcome, potentially positioning Musk as a crucial wildcard in TikTok's future.

4. Russian Mercenary Arrested at US Border: Implications and Background on Wagner Group

In the concluding segment, Mike Slater reports on a significant security incident involving the apprehension of a Russian mercenary at the U.S. southern border.

• Incident Details:

  • Individual Arrested: Timor Praliev, a 31-year-old veteran of Russia’s Wagner paramilitary group.
  • Circumstances: Attempted illegal entry into the United States via the Rio Grande into Texas, carrying a drone, two passports, and $4,000 in cash.
  • Legal Proceedings: Initially claimed Kazakhstani citizenship but was found with both Russian and Kazakhstani passports during court proceedings. Pleaded guilty to unlawful entry and was sentenced to time served, yet remains in federal custody.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Assistant U.S. Attorney on Community Safety:

    "There are concerns about community safety should he be released, given the Wagner Group's history of inciting political violence."
    [Timestamp: 15:05]

• Wagner Group Overview:

  • Nature and Activities: A sanctioned transnational criminal organization operating as a proxy for the Russian military, involved in conflicts across Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa, and Venezuela.
  • Personnel: Approximately 50,000 members deployed in Ukraine, including 40,000 convicts from Russian prisons.
  • Reputation: Known for unaccountable and brutal operations, exacerbating political and social instability in regions where they are active.
  • Historical Actions: In 2018, the U.S. military reportedly killed up to 300 Wagner members in Syria.

• Recent Developments:

  • Honors in Russia: Praliev was recently honored by a Russian government veterans organization, the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, for his service in Wagner.
  • Implications for U.S. Security: The arrest raises alarms about the intentions of Wagner operatives within U.S. borders and underscores the persistent threat posed by Russian-affiliated paramilitary groups.

• Conclusion:

  • Ongoing Vigilance: The incident highlights the need for continued scrutiny and robust security measures to prevent potentially destabilizing elements from infiltrating the United States.

Summary: The January 15th episode of The President's Daily Brief navigates through critical geopolitical developments, from the potential deployment of French troops in Ukraine and NATO's proactive measures to protect vital undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, to the intricate saga surrounding TikTok's future in the U.S. amidst political maneuvering involving Elon Musk. The episode culminates with a notable security breach involving a Wagner Group mercenary, emphasizing the persistent threats posed by Russian paramilitary organizations. Each segment is enriched with insightful analysis and authoritative quotes, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the pressing global and national issues shaping the current landscape.