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The President's Daily Brief
January 16th, 2026: Why President Trump Changed His Mind On Striking Iran & Ukraine Faces Manpower Strain
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It's Friday, the 16th of January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, after days of escalating rhetoric, u. S. Iran tensions, on the surface anyway, appear to be easing at. That's how the White House is playing it. And now we're learning about one potentially contributing factor. President Trump's closest Gulf allies are quietly urging him not to strike Iran, warning that the fallout could be severe. Of course, that's while the US Is moving a carrier group into the region. I'll have the details later in the show. Ukraine's new defense minister offers a stark assessment of his nation's war effort, revealing widespread desertions and millions avoiding the draft as Russia continues to press its offensive. Plus, President Trump is threatening to invoke the Insurrection act and deploy federal troops to Minneapolis to try to end persistent protests over federal immigration enforcement. And in today's back of the brief, Europe sends troops to Greenland as Denmark moves to strengthen NATO's presence on the island. And President Trump continues to push his agenda for an acquisition. But first, today's PDB spotlight. After days of escalating rhetoric, there's been a noticeable shift in tone. And today we're learning why. President Trump's apparent reversal wasn't driven by a sudden breakthrough with Tehran, and certainly not by taking Iranian regime comments about stopping the killing at face value. It was reportedly driven by conversations with key regional allies, intense behind the scenes lobbying from America's closest Gulf allies, countries that fear they'd absorb the immediate blowback of a U.S. strike. According to multiple officials close to Arab governments, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman led what one source described as, quote, a long, frantic, diplomatic, last minute effort to convince President Trump to give Iran a chance to show good intention. Now, suggesting that Iran be given the chance to show good intention is, of course, absurd or laughable or disconnected from reality, however you might want to phrase it. But regardless, the Saudis and Qataris and Omanis reportedly made that suggestion. Turkey and Egypt joined in as well, all warning that a strike on Iran would unleash consequences in the region that nobody would be able to contain. Ah, yes, well, much better just to contain the killings to the protesters in Iran so the regime can get back to rebuilding their terrorist proxies and missile program. But I guess that makes me sound churlish. In short, their message to Washington was that any attack on Iran would not necessarily stay confined to to Iran. Gulf leaders warned of direct retaliation against US Bases across the region, many of which sit on their territory. They raised alarms about disruption to shipping lanes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. And they cautioned that energy markets, already fragile, would respond fast and violently. And of course, the protesters who have been killed, protesters who are risking their lives and those that have been arrested, I'm sure they're all worried about the energy markets. Many of these governments have no sympathy for Tehran. So this wasn't necessarily about saving the Iranian regime. It was about shielding themselves from the chaos that they believe would follow its fall. That pressure campaign appears to have worked, at least for now, or at least that's how the White House is messaging it. In the middle of this diplomatic scramble, quiet communication opened, reportedly between Washington and Tehran. Some of it may have been facilitated by intermediaries like Oman or Russia. Oh, good. Get Russia involved in peace talks, because you know how good that goes through those channels. Iranian officials reportedly offered assurances that executions of protesters would not take place and that the death toll from the crackdown was lower than what had been reported outside the country. Well, if they say so. I mean, when could you not trust the number one sponsor of state terrorism? Shortly afterward, President Trump publicly echoed those claims. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he had been told the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. He did not identify the source of that information, but the signal was clear. The White House was creating space for talks. Markets took notice. Global oil prices fell, easing fears that a US strike or Iranian retaliation could choke off supply routes in the Gulf. But as of right now, it would be a mistake, I think, to read this as a false stand down. Even as rhetoric cooled, the military picture remained tense. The US Withdrew personnel and aircraft from its major airbase in Qatar, a move that often precedes conflict. A US Aircraft carrier strike group, by the way, has begun moving toward the region. And Washington announced a new round of sanctions targeting senior Iranian officials tied to the crackdown, including security and Revolutionary Guard figures. One US Official speaking to the Financial Times, who was familiar with the discussions, said that military options are still on the table, a sentiment echoed directly by President Trump himself. The current pause in hostile rhetoric is being framed as conditional. And if Iran backslides, what are the odds of that? The White House is moving assets into position to make good on any threats. At least that's the impression the White House appears to be giving off. The official told ft. Trump is ready to pull the trigger and claim the de escalation a bluff, end quote. And the region is already adjusting to the new reality. Turkey has begun talks to deepen defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Gulf states are reassessing their own security postures. Even with tensions cooling, there's little confidence that the crisis is truly over. And yes, the question continues to hang over this crisis. When the White House said that help is on its way, exactly what help are we talking about and when? All right, coming up next, Ukraine faces a manpower crunch as Russia advances and President Trump threatens to deploy troops to Minneapolis under the Insurrection Act. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. When was the last time you woke up feeling rested? I mean, truly rested? Right. Look, if you're. If you're dragging through your days with no energy or zero motivation or stubborn belly fat, who wants that? Or a flattened sex drive? Well, let me tell you something. You're not alone. 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And if you get a post purchase survey, well, do me a favor, mention you heard about Cozy Earth right here on the pdb. Welcome back to the pdb. The war in Ukraine is lurching into its fourth year and the strain is showing far from the front lines. The country's new defense minister in Ukraine says the military has recorded widespread desertions and estimates that millions of Ukrainians have evaded the draft. Speaking before Parliament, Ukraine's Defense Minister, Mikhailo Fedorov didn't try to sugarcoat what's happening. He didn't frame the situation as a future risk or a hypothetical concern. He talked about it as a problem already baked into how the war is being fought. Fedorov told lawmakers that Ukraine's forces aren't just under pressure from Russia. They are straining under their own weight, bogged down by bureaucracy, a Soviet style command culture, and repeated breakdowns in delivering equipment where it needs to go along the 600 mile front line. Those conditions, he argues, are eroding morale and cohesion across the armed forces. And when Fedorov put numbers on it, the scale of the manpower problem, well, it snaps into focus, he told Parliament the military has recorded about 200,000 desertions so far and estimates that roughly 2 million Ukrainians have avoided inscription since Russia launched its full scale 2022 invasion. That matters because it points to a growing mismatch between the scale of the war and Ukraine's ability to keep enough people in uniform to fight it now. Fedorov's remarks came just weeks after he was appointed by Ukrainian President Zelensky as part of a government reshuffle. Zelensky said the changes were designed to sharpen Ukraine's focus on security and defense development and diplomacy as Washington intensifies efforts to explore whether a negotiated peace settlement with MOSC Moscow is even possible. But before taking over the defense portfolio, Fedorov was best known for leading Ukraine's digital transformation efforts. He is widely credited with accelerating the military's adoption of drone technology and rolling out electronic government platforms that have become essential during the war. His appointment was widely read as a signal that Kyiv wants to modernize its armed forces, even as the manpower base shows signs of serious strain beyond personnel. Fedorov flagged the financial pressure facing Ukraine's Defense ministry. He said the country is staring at a funding shortfall of about US$7 billion. It's a reminder that sustaining the war effort remains heavily dependent on Western support. Some of that gap, he said, is expected to be taken care of by Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week that most of a new EU loan program would be directed towards supporting Ukraine's military and economy over the next two years. At the same time, Fedorov pointed to rapid growth in Ukraine's domestic defense industry as a partial counterweight to these pressures. At the start of the war, he said, Ukraine had just seven private drone companies and two firms producing electronic warfare systems. Today, well, that landscape looks very different, with nearly 500 drone manufacturers and about 200 electronic warfare companies operating across the country. Still, I want to point out that the scale of desertions, the mass draft evasions and mounting funding pressures underscore the central challenge facing Ukraine's leadership. Shifting to the US after more than a week of violent protests and a deadly confrontation involving an ICE officer in the city of Minneapolis, President Trump is threatening to invoke the Insurrection act to potentially deploy troops to restore order to the city. Tensions in Minneapolis escalated again on Wednesday after an ICE agent shot and wounded a man during an altercation which the Department of Homeland Security DHS says began as an enforcement stop that spiraled out of control. Federal agents stopped a Venezuelan national who was in the country illegally. The driver fled the stop, crashed into a parked car and fled on foot. When an officer caught up to the illegal immigrant, two additional individuals jumped into the confrontation and attacked the officer, DHS says. The officer was struck with a snow shovel and a broom handle, DHS said in a statement. Quote, fearing for his life and safety as he was being ambushed by three individuals, the officer fired a defensive shot to defend his life. The illegal immigrant was struck in the leg and remains in the hospital with a non life threatening injury. That shooting landed in the city already on edge following the 7 January fatal encounter involving Renee Good, which has of course fueled protests and confrontations between demonstrators and federal agents carrying out immigration arrests. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the ICE agent involved in that incident was struck by Good's vehicle and that Good used her SUV as a weapon during the encounter, prompting Ross to fire after he sustained injuries. For the White House, this was a failure of local leadership. Trump laid the blame squarely on Minnesota Democrats, accusing them of allowing unrest to spiral while federal officers have come under attack. In a post on Truth Social, Trump warned that he was prepared to act unilaterally if state and city leaders do not restore order. He wrote, quote, if the corrupt politicians in Minnesota don't obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the patriots of ice, I will institute the Insurrection act, adding that such a move would, quote, put an end to the travesty. Now, if the Insurrection act sounds familiar, it's because Trump has raised it before. Since returning to the White House, he's repeatedly floated invoking the rarely used 1807 law, which allows the president to deploy the military domestically or federalize the National Guard over a governor's objections. You may remember he raised it on his first day back in office, tying it to the crisis at the southern border and again in October of this past year amid rampant crime in Chicago and Portland. Now, presidents have invoked the act more than two dozen times, most recently being in 1990 when President George H.W. bush deployed troops to Los Angeles following the Rodney King riots. But the Minnesota attorney general said he would challenge any deployment of troops in court as the situation on the ground in Minneapolis remains volatile. Violent demonstrations have become a near daily occurrence since Good's death. Federal agents conducting arrests have been confronted by residents demanding that they leave neighborhoods, sometimes blocking vehicles and surrounding officers as enforcement operations continue. And following Wednesday's shooting, ICE agents have endured being pelted by rocks and being showered by fireworks as the crowds grow more hostile. So from the administration's perspective, Trump's choice of potentially invoking the Insurrection act is being framed as order versus chaos. As protests continue and federal enforcement operations expand. Trump's latest threat to send troops into the streets could trigger a constitutional clash between the White House and Minnesota's Democratic leadership as the administration aims to protect federal agents. All right, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, Europe is sending troops to Greenland as Denmark accelerates plans for a stronger NATO footprint, responding to growing strategic interest. From Washington, we'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, here is the hard truth, right? Once we get a little older or maybe a lot older, suddenly everything feels more difficult. You know what I'm talking about? You're, you're on the same diet, you're doing the same workouts, but you're getting softer around the middle and you're losing energy throughout the day. But let me tell you, there is a solution. You can turn the clock back naturally with Mars Men. It's a real testosterone stack that boosts energy and strength and focus. Without needles, just real natural ingredients like tongkat ali and zinc and boron and more that support healthy T levels, stamina and recovery. Mars Men is made in the USA and third party tested with a 90 day money back guarantee. So there's no risk. 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Sort of an action analysts say is designed to demonstrate they can rapidly deploy military assets to the region if necessary. That's according to a report from Reuters. Now it's important to be clear about what this is and what this is not. The planned European military buildup remains very limited in scale, at least for now, and appears focused on reconnaissance and coordination and signaling rather than deterrence through force. Officials added that the modest deployment will also help Denmark prepare for upcoming military exercises. Specifically, Germany is deploying a 13 person reconnaissance team, which first traveled to Copenhagen before continuing on to Greenland alongside Danish personnel. Late Wednesday, a Danish Air force aircraft landed in Greenland's capital with uniformed military personnel disembarking at the airport. Other European contributions are smaller. Sweden is sending three officers, Norway two, and Britain is sending one officer to join the reconnaissance group. The Netherlands will also send a single naval officer, while Finland plans to deploy two military liaison officers. France's role stands out slightly more. Reuters reports Paris is sending around 15 mountain specialists, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying they could later be reinforced by land, air and naval assets if necessary. Macron framed the move in explicitly political terms, saying France and the EU must be unyielding in upholding territorial sovereignty. While the number of troops remain small for now, obviously, leaders in Denmark stressed they intend to move forward with plans for a larger and more permanent NATO presence on the strategic Arctic island in the near future. Regional analysts told Reuters. The deployment sends two distinct messages to the Trump administration. One is to show that if the US Acts militarily, Europe is ready to defend Greenland. The other is to show Washington that Europe is taking Trump's concerns over security and surveillance in the Arctic seriously. As we've been tracking on the pdb, Greenland, a largely self governing territory under Danish control, has taken on growing strategic importance as Arctic shipping lanes expand and competition intensifies over its rich deposits of critical minerals. While the US Already maintains a military presence on Greenland, European leaders have become increasingly alarmed by rhetoric suggesting Greenland's status could be subject to negotiation. The White House, meanwhile, continues to say that President Trump has not ruled out any options regarding securing the Arctic island. Trump views acquiring Greenland as a national security priority, citing the need to deter adversaries in the region like Russia and China. Now, where things go from here, well, that's anyone's guess. But President Trump has given no indication that he plans to shift his view on the matter after Wednesday's talks failed. Trump reiterated that he does not believe that Denmark and European NATO allies can be relied upon to protect Greenland from potential occupation by Russia or China. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 16th January. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB@the FIRSTTV.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.