The President's Daily Brief

Episode: January 23rd, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Main Topics: U.S. White House’s plan for regime change in Cuba, U.S.-Ukraine security agreements in Davos, crackdown on Russia’s oil sanctions evasion, and Iran’s execution of a dissenting soldier.

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker dives into a revelatory report on the White House’s active efforts to topple Cuba’s communist government. Drawing lessons from Venezuela, the administration is intensifying covert and overt economic and political pressure on Havana. The episode also covers the Trump-Zelensky meeting at Davos, marking a breakthrough in U.S.-Ukraine security assurances. France’s bold interception of a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker underscores escalating enforcement of sanctions against Moscow. The “Back of the Brief” segment spotlights a harrowing human rights case in Iran, where a young soldier is sentenced to death for defying shoot-to-kill orders during protests.

1. PDB Spotlight: Inside the White House Plan to Topple Cuba’s Communist Government

[00:29–10:19]

Key Points:

• White House's Renewed Focus: A Wall Street Journal report claims the administration views Cuba's regime as “more fragile than at any point in the past seven decades” with U.S. officials actively seeking regime change, potentially by year’s end.
• Economic Crisis in Cuba: Chronic shortages, rolling blackouts, and desperation accelerated by the loss of subsidized Venezuelan oil after Maduro’s ouster.
• Blueprint From Caracas: The U.S.-backed operation in Venezuela succeeded by engaging regime insiders willing to facilitate a peaceful transition; this approach is being emulated in Cuba.
  • “The strategy is not a traditional invasion or Cold War–style coup. Instead, Washington is applying intense pressure...while quietly searching for Cuban government insiders who might be willing to cut a deal.” — Mike Baker [02:58]
• Unprecedented U.S Pressure:
  • Targeting Cuban overseas medical missions (key hard currency source)
  • Signal openness to humanitarian assistance via institutions like the Catholic Church
• Critical Distinction:
  • “Cuba is not Venezuela. And for that, I grant myself the PDB Statement of the Obvious award.” — Mike Baker [05:53]
  • The entrenched Cuban regime lacks the internal opposition, legal multiparty system, and reform-minded insiders that made Venezuela's transition workable.
  • Civil society is weak; security apparatus strongly represses dissent.

Notable Quotes:

• “President Trump himself has publicly amplified that message, warning Havana that there will be no more oil or money and urging Cuban leaders to make a deal before it’s too late.” — Mike Baker [03:38]
• “The Cuban regime has survived decades of US embargoes and covert action...it’s shown a remarkable ability to repress dissent while keeping its inner circle loyal.” — Mike Baker [07:34]
• “What happens if no insiders make a deal? What does collapse look like on an island 90 miles from Florida?” — Mike Baker [08:18]

Memorable Moment:

• Baker’s candid skepticism about U.S. optimism:
  “They view Venezuela as a proof of concept. But Cuba, well, Cuba may be the ultimate test of that concept.” [09:16]

2. Davos Talks: Trump-Zelensky Meeting & Ukraine Security Guarantees

[13:36–23:11]

Key Points:

• U.S.-Ukraine Security Pact: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump and President Zelensky finalize terms of U.S. security guarantees, a critical step in Ukraine's postwar planning.
  • “The security guarantees, which Ukraine had been pushing for and Washington has been considering for months, are now complete.” — Mike Baker [15:20]
• Territorial Dispute Unresolved: The primary obstacle remains Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede parts of eastern Donetsk (including areas Russia does not control).
• Upcoming Trilateral Talks: First meetings to include U.S., Ukraine, and Russia scheduled in Abu Dhabi; seen as significant progress by all parties.
• European Hesitation: Zelensky criticizes European leaders for reluctance to employ “hard power” against Russia, arguing that EU caution undermines credibility.
  • “If Europe is not seen as a global force, if its actions do not scare bad actors, Europe will always be reacting.” — Zelensky (quoted by Baker) [19:04]
• Diplomatic Realism: Despite progress between U.S. and Ukraine, Russia remains inflexible; Baker emphasizes that only Putin can withdraw Russian troops.

Notable Quotes:

• “Trump echoed that tone, telling reporters his meeting with Zelensky was good, but the effort to secure a ceasefire is an ongoing process. When asked what message he had for President Putin, Trump kept it blunt, saying, ‘the war has to end.’” — Mike Baker [17:18]
• “Not to sound cynical, but Putin has yet to show any interest in compromise during his four-year war on Ukraine.” — Mike Baker [21:33]

3. Escalating Sanctions Enforcement: France Intercepts Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker

[23:12–28:15]

Key Points:

• France’s Operation: French navy intercepts a Russian-linked oil tanker, “The Grinch,” in the Mediterranean after British intelligence links it to Moscow’s “shadow fleet”—an armada of vessels designed to evade sanctions.
  • “French maritime officials say the tanker, named The Grinch—seriously, a shadow fleet tanker named The Grinch—immediately raised suspicions due to its departure origin.” — Mike Baker [24:04]
• Shadow Fleet Tactics: Old tankers, opaque ownership, false flags; central to sustaining Russia’s sanctioned oil exports.
• International Collaboration: The operation involved intelligence-sharing with the UK; vessel flew a Comoros flag, was crewed by Indian nationals.
• European Resolve: France and UK signal intention to strictly enforce sanctions, setting legal precedents for inspections in European waters.
  • Macron’s post: “France is determined to ensure sanctions are effectively enforced...the shadow fleet plays a direct role in financing Russia’s war of aggression.”
• Past French Actions: Reference to a previous boarding of another such tanker; Russian condemnation as “piracy.”

Notable Quotes:

• “France and its European partners have made clear that they are no longer willing to look the other way. They've pledged to tighten enforcement and make it easier to legally board and inspect suspected vessels.” — Mike Baker [26:07]

4. Back of the Brief: Iran Sentences Soldier to Death for Refusing to Fire on Protesters

[30:53–37:18]

Key Points:

• Case Details: Javid Khalis, a young Iranian soldier, refused orders to shoot protesters during anti-regime demonstrations. He was sentenced to death after an accelerated trial.
  • “The young soldier, identified as Javid Khalis...was first arrested after declining to participate in the killing of his fellow countrymen during the ongoing nationwide protests...” — Mike Baker [31:19]
• Judicial Patterns: Accelerated, opaque trials; harsh punishments designed to signal zero tolerance for dissent, even among security forces.
• Brutal Crackdown Continues: Over 20,000 detained since late December protests; human rights organizations report 4,500+ confirmed deaths, possible estimates as high as 20,000.
• Message to Regime Insiders: The execution is a warning; cracks may be appearing in regime’s instruments of repression.
  • “By sentencing a soldier to death for refusing to fire on civilians, Tehran is drawing a hard line, making clear that disobedience will be treated as a capital offense.” — Mike Baker [36:18]

Notable Quotes:

• “How the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard Corps continue to cling to power is one of life’s great mysteries. Oh wait, it’s actually not a mystery—they happen to have the guns.” — Mike Baker [30:58]

5. Key Takeaways & Closing Thoughts

• The Biden administration is pursuing a bold, high-risk strategy to pressure and fragment Cuba’s leadership, taking lessons from Venezuela but facing much steeper institutional resistance.
• Washington has achieved a meaningful breakthrough with Ukraine on security but the Russian position on territory remains the choke point.
• Europe is stepping up enforcement of sanctions against Russia, with France’s naval actions highlighting a willingness to “put teeth” in economic measures.
• Iran’s execution of a dissenting soldier exposes the brutality of the regime’s efforts to silence protest and signals cracks in its internal cohesion—even as it leans ever harder on violence and summary justice.

Most Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Cuba:
  “Cuba is not Venezuela. And for that, I grant myself the PDB Statement of the Obvious award.” — Mike Baker [05:53]

• On Ukraine Diplomacy:
  “If Europe is not seen as a global force, if its actions do not scare bad actors, Europe will always be reacting.” — President Zelensky (quoted) [19:04]

• On Iran’s Crackdown:
  “By sentencing a soldier to death for refusing to fire on civilians, Tehran is drawing a hard line, making clear that disobedience will be treated as a capital offense.” — Mike Baker [36:18]

For further details or listener feedback, Baker invites questions at pdb@thefirsttv.com.