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The President's Daily Brief
January 24th, 2025: Russian Spy Ship Taunts Britain & Trump Floats New Iranian Nuclear Deal
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It's Friday 24th January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll kick things off in Europe, where threats to the continent's critical undersea cables are intensifying as Britain warns that a Russian spy ship recently passed by the English coast for the second time in three months. Later in the show, President Trump sets his sights on Iran, tapping Middle east envoy Steve Witkoff to lead efforts to rein in the Iranian regime's expanding nuclear program, while suggesting that he's open to brokering a new nuclear deal. Plus, Syria's new rebel led government is reportedly incorporating Islamic law into their new administration, raising concerns about their commitment to protecting Syria's many ethnic and religious minorities. And in today's Back of the Brief, an update on the devastating wildfires still burning in Los Angeles as strong winds and dry conditions fuel new blazes that are spreading rapidly. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Russian provocations in the waters surrounding Britain are escalating tensions between Moscow and London as a Russian spy ship equipped to potentially sabotage undersea cables was observed in nearby waters earlier this week for the second time in three months. British Defense Secretary John Healy addressed the situation with Parliament on Wednesday, calling Russia the most pressing and immediate threat to Britain, end quote. Healey revealed that Royal Navy ships tracked a Russian spy ship, the Yantar, off the coast of the UK for two days before it departed for Dutch waters. His remarks, directly aimed at Russian President Putin, were clear, stating, quote, we see you, we know what you are doing, and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country, end quote. The defense secretary also announced updates to Britain's Naval Rules of Engagement, allowing for more aggressive monitoring of Russian vessels. The Yantar, developed by Russia's Main Directorate for alleged Deep sea Research, is equipped with submersibles capable of targeting critical undersea cables. That's a vulnerability that Western intelligence has repeatedly warned that Moscow could exploit, according to the private intelligence firm Sibylline, which has been tracking the ship's movements for a decade. Its primary mission is locating and mapping infrastructure for potential sabotage or intelligence gathering. The timing of this activity coincides with NATO's intensified focus on undersea security following a series of recent incidents of suspected sabotage in European waters. As we previously reported on the pdb, NATO deployed warships, patrol aircraft and drones in the Baltic Sea after several undersea cables were severed late last year. Finnish investigators are nearing completion of their probe into the Russian tanker Eagle S. Accused of dragging its anchor for over 60 miles and damaging multiple undersea cables. Back in December, the tanker, part of the Shadow fleet used by Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions, was seized and its crew detained for customs violations. While intent has not been conclusively proven, investigators view this as part of a broader pattern of maritime disruptions linked to Russia. Germany, meanwhile, continues to investigate a Chinese flagged ship implicated in slicing two data cables late last year. Though no evidence directly links Beijing or Moscow to deliberate action, the incident underscores the growing risks to maritime global communications infrastructure. Russia's interest in undersea cables is frankly long standing. These cables, which transmit some 99% of worldwide data, and that's a lot of the worldwide data, including $10 trillion in daily financial transactions, well, they're vital to the global economy. Back in November, the Yantar was spotted near Irish waters. That's a major hub for transatlantic data arteries connecting Europe and North America. The ship's activities prompted Irish authorities to send an escort vessel to shadow its movements. Similarly, in 2022, mobile services in Scotland's Shetland Islands were disrupted after an undersea cable was damaged, an act widely attributed to Moscow as one of Ukraine's most steadfast allies. Britain's tensions with Russia have remained high since the Kremlin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The tensions reached a fever pitch in 2024 when Ukraine fired British made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia's Kursk region. While the Russian Embassy in London has dismissed allegations of targeting undersea communications as untenable, the Kremlin's track record of exploiting vulnerabilities in Europe's critical infrastructure well, leaves little room for doubt. Moscow's interest in undersea cables underscores its willingness to weaponize Europe's reliance on on this invisible yet vital infrastructure. As Healey warned Parliament, the stakes are too high to ignore and Britain and NATO remain prepared to take decisive action against Moscow. Alright. Coming up next, Trump taps Middle east envoy Steve Witkoff to lead diplomatic efforts to rein in Tehran's expanding nuclear program. Plus, in a concerning development out of Syria the the rebel led government is reportedly incorporating Islamic law into their new administration. I'll be right back.
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Welcome back to the PDB it appears that President Trump is going to try to give diplomacy a try with the mullahs of Iran before turning to military options. According to White House sources who spoke exclusively with the Financial Times on Thursday, Trump is tapping his Middle east envoy Steve Witkoff to spearhead efforts to address Iran's expanding nuclear program as part of a broader effort to, quote, stop the wars in the region. Witkoff is a close confidant to Trump who just helped secure the historic ceasefire deal in Gaza, leaving him well situated to make inroads. The news came as Trump signaled that he would prefer to broker a new nuclear deal with Iran rather than engage in a direct military confrontation. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, Iran has vastly accelerated their enrichment of near weapons grade uranium since Trump's reelection in November, boosting production capacity sevenfold in December. Iran now has a stockpile of at least 440 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, and that's enough to produce at least five nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%. Their activity has alarmed the international community, of course, and prompted Israeli officials to consider mounting their own preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. Trump was asked by reporters on Thursday whether he would support preemptive strikes by Israel, and while he refused to roll out the possibility, Trump said, quote, it would be really nice if the Iranian nuclear crisis can be solved without military force. Well, yes, that would be nice, trump added, quote, hopefully that can be worked out. Iran will hopefully make a deal, and if they don't make a deal, that's okay too. End quote. As a reminder, in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or nuclear deal, was reached between Iran, the US and five other world powers. The deal restricted Iran's nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief and extensive UN oversight. Though Iran was quickly accused of flouting the terms of the deal, Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, reimposing sanctions as part of a maximum pressure strategy that left the Iranian economy in tatters in an effort to force meaningful concessions from the Iranian regime on their nuclear program. Trump is preparing a return to that maximum pressure campaign seen during his first term. Senior national security advisers are reportedly crafting a new sanctions package targeting the regime's oil interests that could be unveiled by early February. Wyckoff, for his part, has also publicly expressed hopes that diplomacy can win the day, but has also warned that the Trump administration is prepared to employ military options should the mullahs balk at good faith negotiations. In a recent interview with Fox News, Witkoff said the president will not allow a bomb to be gotten by the Iranians. Not going to happen. He added, quote, the president is all about solving it diplomatically, if that's possible, and if people are going to adhere to their agreements. But if not, then the alternative is not necessarily a good one, end quote. All right, next up, Syria's rebel led government is reportedly incorporating Islamic law into their new administration, raising concerns in the west that the country could once again be consumed by sectarian violence. Syrian authorities, led by the Sunni Muslim Islamist group HTS are working to build a new national police force to replace deposed dictator Bashar al Assad's notoriously corrupt and brutal security forces. But they're apparently using Islamic teachings as a foundation of their training program, asking recruits questions about their religious beliefs and Islamic Sharia law, according to sources who spoke exclusively with Reuters. As we've discussed on the pdb, HTS is historically associated with radical Islam, long serving as an arm of Al Qaeda during the bloody Syrian civil war. But the group has attempted to rebrand itself in recent years as a moderate liberation force rooted in the values of pluralism and tolerance. HTS has pledged to shift away from militia style governance and to create a new system that features broad representation and protections for Syria's many ethnic and religious factions. But the decision to put religion at the center of policing well, has left many doubting whether HTS can be trusted. A Syrian expert at the Middle east think tank Century International told Reuters, quote, there are many Syrians who will find this concerning not just minorities, the Christians, Alawites and Druze, but also quite a lot of Sunni Muslims in places like Damascus and and Aleppo, where you have a fairly large secular, cosmopolitan population that's not interested in religious law. Now, it's too early to tell whether or not this heralds a return to radicalism, but the latest development has left Western governments wary about how big a role Islamic law will end up playing in Syria's constitution, which STS has reportedly been working to revise. An unnamed diplomat told Reuters, it's not a good sign, but it also depends on how strictly it will be implemented. Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed Al Sharra, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al Jelani, has renounced his former ties to Al Qaeda and tried to reassure Western governments that his group is truly committed to modernizing Syria and ruling with moderation. But he has also said that drafting a new constitution would could take up to three years, meaning anything resembling democratic elections are not on the horizon. Many in the west remain skeptical about HTS's commitment to DE radicalizing, noting that HTS is currently seeking to have the US And Western allies lift the group's long standing terrorist designation, which would free them from the crippling sanctions that come with it. While Syria's Interior Ministry has not commented on the inclusion of Sharia law in their police training, Anonymous officials attempted to downplay its significance, with one official telling Reuters it's not about imposing Islam on the general population, but rather teaching recruits ethical behavior. For now, Western governments are keeping a close eye on the developments in Syria to see whether HTS promises of inclusivity will translate into action. Alright, Coming up in the back of the Brief, we'll have an update on the devastating wildfires still burning in Los Angeles as strong winds and dry conditions fuel new blazes that are spreading rapidly. I'll be back with those details in today's Back of the Brief. Wildfires continue to ravage Los Angeles county as the Hughes Fire surged past 10,000 acres since igniting Wednesday morning, forcing tens of thousands of residents to flee their homes. The new inferno raging 50 miles northwest of Los Angeles is fueled by relentless Santa Ana winds with gusts reaching 65 mph and critically low humidity, creating a formidable challenge, of course, for the 4,000 firefighters present on the scene. As of Thursday afternoon, the Hughes fire is only 24% contained despite the high winds. Aircraft have been deployed to combat the wildfire with helicopters scooping water from nearby lakes and airplanes dropping fire retardant to slow the blazes rapid spread. Eyewitnesses have captured dramatic video of orange skies and flames racing to the edges of nearby water sources. On Los Angeles western and eastern flanks, the Palisades and Eaton fires have devastated communities over the past two weeks. Together they've claimed 28 lives, damaged or destroyed nearly 16,000 structures and turned 37,500 acres into ash, according to Cal Fire. Containment efforts are progressing with the Eaton fire now contained at 95% and the Palisades fire contained at 72%. Adding to the strain, a smaller blaze dubbed the Sepulveda fire ignited along the 405 Freeway near the Getty Museum on Wednesday, prompting a temporary closure of one of the city's busiest highways. This fire, scorching 45 acres, is now reportedly at 60% containment. Despite the relentless fire activity, some weather relief lies ahead. Southern California, which has gone nine months without significant rainfall, could see precipitation through the weekend and into Monday. However, the shift in the weather carries its own risks. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass caution the rain could trigger mudslides in areas stripped of vegetation by those fires. Bass says the city is taking, quote, aggressive action with crews installing barriers, clearing debris and managing stormwater. President Trump is set to visit the fire ravaged areas on Friday. In a Fox News interview on Wednesday, Trump took aim at California's wildfire management, lambasting Mayor Bass, who was in Africa when the Palisades and Eaton fires erupted, and Governor Gavin Newsom. The president criticized Newsom's handling of forest management and accused him of refusing to release stormwater from the north to Southern California, which Trump claims contributed to fire hydrants running dry. The president warned that he might cut federal funding unless the state revises its water policies, stating, I don't think we should get California anything until they let water flow, end quote. As new blazes challenge firefighting efforts, Southern California will hopefully, hopefully get some much needed rainfall this weekend to aid containment efforts. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday, the 24th of January. And of course, well, it is Friday, which can only mean that a brand spanking new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report is ready for launch this evening at 10pm on the first TV. The Situation Report is also, of course, available on our YouTube channel that's much loved and critically acclaimed and you can find that at President's Daily Brief and all podcast platforms where you happen to get your podcast stuff. Our great guests this weekend include Mark Krikorian of the center for Immigration Studies to discuss the Trump administration's border policies and the Heritage Foundation's Steve Yates to discuss all things foreign policy and national security related. It is, frankly, a humdinger of a show. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. It.