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It's Wednesday, the 28th of January. We are almost finished with the first month of 2026. Well, how about that? Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage and yes, still on the road. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting reveals Iran's Supreme Leader personally ordered security forces to shoot protesters on sight. But the most revealing part of this story may not be that order itself. I'll have the details later in the show. Iraq's spy chief is warning that ISIS is quietly rebuilding its ranks with militants, regrouping across the border in Syria and exploiting regional instability. Plus, a US Official says any disarmament of Hamas in Gaza would likely come with some form of amnesty as the next phase of the ceasefire presents, well, several difficult challenges. And in today's back of the brief, Washington may be headed for, get this, another partial government shutdown with no clear off ramp in sight as lawmakers clash over immigration enforcement. Now, you'd think that politicians really would have one job and that would be to keep the government open. It seems simple if both sides were willing to, I don't know, work together and compromise for the sake of the US Taxpayers who, lest we forget, pay the politicians salaries and benefits. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. New reporting from the New York Times is revealing that the order to crack down on protesters with maximum force in Iran came from the very top, the Supreme Leader himself. But that may not be the most important part of the story. According to the reporting, Iran's supreme Leader, Ayatoll Ali Khamenei issued a direct order earlier this month to crush nationwide protests by any means necessary. The directive was delivered through the Supreme National Security Council, that's the regime's top security body, and deployed security forces with orders to, quote, shoot to kill and to show no mercy. In the days that followed, the regime security apparatus certainly complied with that order. And as we now know, the death toll surged. Now on its own, that order is, of course, chilling, but it's neither surprising nor unprecedented. The Islamic Republic in the past has shown a willingness to use extreme violence when it feels threatened. But what makes the reporting from the New York Times stand out is the sourcing of the information. These details aren't coming from protesters or opposition figures based overseas or foreign intelligence agencies. The details are coming from Iranian officials who were briefed on the directive itself. In other words, people inside the regime close enough to power to know exactly what was ordered. And they're now willing to talk about it and these aren't the only leaks coming out of the government. In Tehran, two senior officials with Iran's Ministry of Health separately told Time magazine on Sunday that As many as 30,000 people may have been killed in the wake of the orders from Khamenei. The number of dead was so high, they reported, that it overwhelmed the state's capacity to dispose of the bodies. That conflicts with claims, of course, from Iran's National Security Council, which claimed a little over 3,000 deaths. Oh, you only shot and killed 3,000 of them, they say. These kinds of leaks are telling because authoritarian systems tend to survive on secrecy and internal discipline. When officials begin leaking the regime's most sensitive decisions, it often signals a degree of internal mistrust or belief that the leadership's grip may be weakening and that internal anxiety appears to be shaping Tefran's next moves. Iran's leadership is quietly preparing for what it sees as a worst case scenario. According to new reporting, the government has begun delegating emergency powers designed to keep essential goods flowing and maintain basic state functions in the event of external strikes or wider conflict. That's a notable shift. Governments don't activate emergency measures, of course, lightly, especially ones tied to continuity planning. This does suggest that Tehran is taking the possibility of military escalation very seriously. It also seems to reflect a regime that feels boxed in, facing internal unrest on one side and external pressure on the other. Taken together, the leaks and the emergency preparations paint a picture of a leadership that feels increasingly vulnerable. As the Iranian regime deals with trouble at home, its allied militias or its network of proxies across the region are signaling readiness for action. Iranian backed groups in Iraq and Yemen are openly threatening new attacks should Tehran come under attack from US Forces, which of course are now in position in the region. For Iran, proxy forces have always served as both a shield and a sword, a way to deter adversaries, apply pressure and project strength without triggering a direct confrontation. When internal stability is shaky, those external levers become, well, even more important. The messaging from these militias suggests Iran wants to remind Washington that any pressure campaign comes with regional consequences. But there's probably an important recent lesson here, and it's one that Tehran and its militias probably shouldn't ignore. During the 12 day conflict with Israel, Iran's proxy network proved far less effective than advertised. Hezbollah and Iraqi militias stayed mostly on the sidelines. Strikes from Yemen's Houthis had limited impact, and coordinated escalation across multiple fronts never fully materialized. For a regime that has long relied on its proxies as A cost effective deterrent. The episode exposed real limits to that strategy. Alright. Coming up after the break, Iraq's spy chief warns that ISIS is quietly rebuilding its ranks in Syria. And a US official signals Hamas disarmament in Gaza could come with some form of amnesty. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every small business out there. Now, small businesses face an uphill battle with big banks. You probably know that where getting a loan means endless paperwork and del for bank rates without the weight. Here's what you do. You go to Cardiff. That's right, go to Cardiff Co PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. Their application takes less than five minutes. Come on, five minutes. And has no impact on personal credit and approval. Happens in minutes with same day funding. It's the fastest way to get the capital you need to keep your business moving forward. Now, many banks try to lock out small businesses, but Cardiff has the key. Cardiff wants to approve your business loan if you've been in business least a year and are pulling in $20,000 a month in revenue or more. Apply now for up to $500,000 in same day business funding at Cardiff Co PDB. Again, that's Cardiff Co PDB. Real growth, fast funding. Cardiff borrow better. Welcome back to the pdb. Growing chaos in Syria is setting off alarms in Baghdad. Iraq's intelligence chief says Islamic State militants are finding room to regroup across the border, exploiting instability as US Forces draw down in Iraq. In a sit down interview with the Washington Post, Iraq's intelligence chief, Hamid Al Shatri described what he says is a familiar ISIS playbook, using chaos in Syria to gain strength in numbers. He told the paper that the terror group's ranks may have jumped from about 2,000 fighters to as many as 10,000 over the past year. Now, I want to point out that estimate is higher than other assessments, including the most recent UN Security Council report, which put the number of Islamic State members in Syria and Iraq combined at about 3,000 as of August. But whatever the exact figure, Shatri says the point isn't headcounts, it's how ISIS operates. He argues that the group functions as a single organization across borders and that even relatively small numbers can regroup, reposition and strike if conditions allow. Shatri said in the interview, this certainly does pose a danger to Iraq. And those conditions, at least from Baghdad's perspective, are starting to reappear next door. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, Syria is defined by instability, renewed fighting, fragile political transition and Detention systems breaking under pressure the exact conditions that ISIS looks to exploit as recent fighting flared in northeastern Syria, government forces pushed to retake territory long controlled by Kurdish led groups. As that pressure built, the system holding ISIS in check began to fray. You may remember our coverage here on the PDB of detention facilities holding thousands of ISIS suspects that descended into chaos during a security lapse, allowing militants to slip back into the desert, even if many were later rearrested. For Iraqi officials watching this unfold, it's a nightmare scenario, the system loosening just enough for ISIS to rebuild networks and regain freedom of movement. Iraq responded quickly. Thousands of troops and militia fighters were rushed to reinforce its border with Syria. And that reaction wasn't an abstract fear. Iraq remembers what ISIS did when the group had space to move after declaring its self styled caliphate over a decade ago, Kshatri has become Baghdad's so called point man on Syria, traveling to Damascus three times over the past year for talks with the Syrian president, Ahmed Al Sharra. What he's hearing and seeing has sharpened his concerns. He said some of the militants who joined ISIS over the past year were once aligned with Shira himself, back when he led an Al Qaeda linked faction. As Shira traded his fatigues for a suit and tie, those fighters, Kshatri says, grew disillusioned and peeled away. According to the Iraqi intelligence chief, ISIS absorbed defectors from those extremist factions and also recruited Arab tribesmen in Sunni areas that until recently were controlled by Kurdish forces. It's a reminder that the military landscape in Syria remains fractured. All of this is unfolding as the US continues to step back militarily from Iraq. This month, the last U.S. troops left the Ayan Al Assad air base in western Anbar province, ending a deployment focused on supporting Iraqi forces against isis. US forces are now confined to a base in Iraq's semi autonomous Kurdish region and are expected to wrap up that mission by the end of the year. Now Shatri says it's too early to judge the full impact of the US withdrawal, but acknowledged it could complicate joint American Iraqi operations, especially in remote terrain of the country where Iraqi Officials believe roughly 500 ISIS fighters have a foothold. That concern is shared beyond Shatri's office. An official with Iraq's national security advisory said Syria's foreign minister warned Iraqi leaders last year that ISIS membership in Syria rose to around 5,000, reinforcing fears that the group is rebuilt, building amid instability next door. That threat is also complicating efforts to rein in armed groups at home. Militias aligned with Iran argue that the renewed ISIS danger in Syria justifies maintaining their weapons. A spokesman for the Master of Martyrs Battalion, which is a Shia Iraqi paramilitary group that backed Syria's Bashar al Assad's regime, said the turmoil in Syria mutes calls for militias to disarm, saying the need for the readiness of the resistance is more urgent than ever. End quote. Okay, shifting our focus to Gaza. Now that the remains of the last Israeli hostage have been recovered, the conversation around phase two of the ceasefire is beginning to take shape. And a US Official is now stating that Hamas's disarmament, a critical requirement for a successful ceasefire, may be paired with some form of amnesty. The comment came during a background briefing by an anonymous senior official in President Trump's administration. With all hostages living and deceased now accounted for, the most emotionally charged chapter of the war closed for Israel. And once that happened, the entire focus shifted. From Washington's perspective, this was always the pivot point. That's the context in which the Trump official's remarks landed. According to Reuters, the official said that the administration believes Hamas is already moving toward disarmament and made clear that compliance from the terror will be enforced. Now, if Hamas is actually moving toward disarmament and the anonymous source's comments aren't just optimistic, happy talk from the administration, it would mark an enormously significant development in the effort to create a lasting peace for Gaza and Israel. A reporter from Al Jazeera who attended the briefing said the Trump official stated that Hamas agreed to disarm and that amnesty for fighters who lay down their weapons is part of the discussion. No details were offered on timing or any legal structure, but raising amnesty publicly signals that talks are moving beyond just ceasefire mechanics and toward Hamas future. Until now, negotiations have focused on hostage exchanges, of course, and humanitarian access. Introducing amnesty into the discussion marks a shift toward the harder question that's been looming from the start. What happens to Hamas? That transition won't happen in isolation. Any disarmament and amnesty framework would require coordination among Israel, the US and regional intermediaries such as Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, and would ultimately depend on whether Hamas actually disarms. Hamas has framed the recent developments as proof of compliance, saying Israel must now meet its commitments without any deduction or delay. But there's irony to that urgent demand from the terror group. You may remember that the Trump brokerage ceasefire, which was agreed to in in October of 2025, required that all deceased hostages be returned within 72 hours of the deal taking effect. As previously mentioned, the final hostage remains those of Master Sergeant Ran Gavili were returned Monday, more than two months later. Still, Hamas demand intersects directly with Trump's broader framework for Gaza's future. Trump's 20 point plan explicitly links the return of all captives to disarmament. Under the plan, fighters who decommission their weapons would be granted amnesty, while those who wish to leave Gaza would be provided safe passage. Aid, access and border openings are tied to preventing a re entrenchment of Hamas military control. Regional diplomacy around that framework is apparently already underway. Turkey's foreign minister met Hamas officials in Ankara to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire and humanitarian conditions in Gaza. The minister briefed the delegation on Turkey's engagement across international platforms, including Trump's Board of Peace. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, another government shutdown. Look at that may be looming. With lawmakers deadlocked and time running short, it's Groundhog day in Washington, D.C. we'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I'm constantly traveling, right? It seems like I'm always on the road. So I've become a bit of an expert on airports and luggage. And I want to tell you about a great company out there that's designing and selling incredible luggage. They're called Noble Travel. That's N O B L Noble Travel. All right, let me give you a scenario. Picture this. You're in the line at airport security. I know. How happy is that? Maybe you got a cup of coffee in your hand, but it's sloshing around your phone. Well, that's dying now. And also you're digging through your bag to get your laptop to put it in the X ray bin. All the while, the folks in line behind you are looking increasingly annoyed. Now. Yeah, standard luggage, let me tell you about that. Standard luggage, as you know, is basically a box on wheels. 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And at checkout, the last guy you heard about Noble will do me a favor. Tell him the PDB sent you in today's Back of the Brief well, here we go again. Less than three months after a record 43 day government shutdown, another one is looming, this time fueled by growing backlash over the Trump administration's immigration crackdown and two fatal encounters involving federal agents. A partial shutdown could begin at 12:01am Saturday after Senate Democrats signaled that they may block a sweeping spending package unless funding for the Department of Homeland Security, the dhs, is stripped out and renegotiated. Separately, the standoff follows the death of Alex Pretty, a 37 year old intensive care nurse who was killed during an encounter with federal immigration agents in Minneapolis. Just last Saturday, the House passed bill worth more than $1.2 trillion. That's with a T funds the bulk of the federal government through September, including the Departments of Defense, Treasury, State, Health and Human Services, Labor, Housing and URB Development, Transportation and Education. But DHS has become the flashpoint. Democrats say they will not provide the votes needed to overcome a filibuster unless DHS funding is pulled from the package and rewritten to impose new constraints on federal immigration enforcement. Those demands include requiring judicial warrants for immigration arrests, mandating that federal agents identify themselves, compelling DHS cooperation with state and local investigations, and limiting what Democrats describe as the growing mission creep of federal agencies operating beyond traditional immigration roles. Republicans, backed by the White House, have said they will not carve DHS out of the House passed package, arguing that doing so would fracture the agreement keeping most of the government funded and virtually guarantees a shutdown while the House remains in recess. For background, the package passed in the House as a combined funding bill with DHS included. If the Senate amends the bill in any way, well, it must be sent back to Congress to the House, which will not return from recess until Monday after the deadline passes. Well, that leaves little room to maneuver and raises the odds of at least a temporary lapse in funding. Notably, even as Democrats push back, there is unease within their own ranks about triggering another shutdown so soon after the last one that they triggered. Some lawmakers point out that key immigration functions, especially ICE and Border Patrol operations, would continue largely uninterrupted thanks to funding already provided under last year's GOP mega bill, while other DHS agencies like FEMA and TSA would see their funding dry up. In other words, the pain would be unevenly distributed, falling more heavily on agencies that have nothing to do with immigration enforcement. If funding expires, non essential federal employees at affected agencies would be furloughed, while essential workers would continue reporting without pay. The timing is especially fraught, and I don't think I've used the word fraught very often on the pdb. A shutdown would begin during tax season, disrupting IRS operations, shuttering walk in Taxpayer Assistance Centers, and slowing refund processing while also impacting air travel oversight, public health programs and early childhood services like Head Start. But Democrats are betting that outrage over Preddy's death in Minneapolis gives them the political ground to force new limits on immigration enforcement. Never let a tragedy go to waste. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that shutdown fatigue will break Democrats resol. You know, the lesson here perhaps is never underestimate a politician's willingness to use a government shutdown to score political points. Right now, the Democrats who've been searching for ways to damage the Trump administration as the midterm elections approach, well, they see the chaos and the tragic shootings in Minneapolis as their best bet. It sounds mercenary. I mean, we are talking about two deceased citizens. But even tragic deaths have a political angle in Washington, D.C. the irony is that damage that the Democrats have spotted is self inflicted by the Trump administration. By most accounts, they secured the country's borders effectively in short order after four years of what many folks perceived as essentially open borders under the Biden administration. Now that could have been a winning message heading into the midterms. But the administration's subsequent handling of immigration enforcement has been poorly managed and poorly messaged. If they lose in the midterms, this issue will be a significant factor in that loss. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday, 28 January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and remember, you can get an ad free PDB experience simply by becoming a premium member of the President's Daily Brief. All you got to do is visit PDB Premium. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. A dog's love letter to his squeaky avocado.