The President’s Daily Brief: January 28, 2026

Podcast: The President's Daily Brief
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Title: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ordered Protesters Shot & ISIS Rising Again
Release Date: January 28, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers a concise yet comprehensive situational report on the most pressing global security developments of the day. Today's focus:

• Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly ordered a brutal crackdown on protesters, revealing cracks within the regime.
• Iraq’s intelligence chief warns that ISIS is quietly rebuilding in Syria, signaling a renewed threat.
• Developments around Hamas disarmament and the prospect of amnesty as Gaza’s ceasefire enters a critical next phase.
• Looming threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown tied to clashes over immigration enforcement.

Baker weaves expert analysis with ground-level insights, connecting breaking news to its larger geopolitical significance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran’s Supreme Leader Orders Protesters Shot: Internal Leaks & Broader Implications

(00:50–07:58)

• Main Story:
  New York Times reporting reveals that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, personally ordered security forces to "shoot to kill" protesters, aiming for a ruthless crackdown on demonstrations.
• Sourcing Matters:
  The most notable element is not the order itself, but its source: high-level Iranian officials, not opposition exiles or foreign agencies, are leaking details. This suggests dissent or anxiety within the regime.
  • “These details are coming from Iranian officials who were briefed on the directive itself... people inside the regime close enough to power to know exactly what was ordered.” — Mike Baker [04:15]
• Scale of Violence:
  • Two Ministry of Health officials told Time magazine that as many as 30,000 people may have been killed, overwhelming the state’s ability to dispose of bodies—much higher than the regime’s claim of 3,000 deaths.
• Significance of Leaks:
  • Authoritarian systems rely on information control. Flood of leaks signals potential cracks or lost internal confidence:
    • “When officials begin leaking the regime’s most sensitive decisions, it often signals a degree of internal mistrust or belief that the leadership’s grip may be weakening.” — Mike Baker [05:25]
• Emergency Powers:
  • Iran’s government is quietly activating emergency powers for continuity, signifying fears of military escalation.
  • “This does suggest that Tehran is taking the possibility of military escalation very seriously.” — Mike Baker [06:25]
• Proxy Posturing:
  • Iranian-back groups in Iraq, Yemen threaten to retaliate if Tehran is hit by U.S. forces.
  • Baker notes that recent conflicts exposed the “real limits” of Iran’s proxy strategy as groups like Hezbollah and others failed to deliver coordinated offensives.

Memorable Quote:

• “For Iran, proxy forces have always served as both a shield and a sword... When internal stability is shaky, those external levers become even more important.”
  — Mike Baker [07:05]

2. Iraq Warns: ISIS Quietly Regrouping in Syria

(10:15–15:50)

• Alarming Assessment:
  Iraq’s intelligence chief Hamid Al Shatri told the Washington Post that ISIS may have rebuilt from 2,000 to 10,000 militants in the last year (notably higher than UN estimates).
• Cross-Border Dynamics:
  • “He argues that the group functions as a single organization across borders and that even relatively small numbers can regroup, reposition and strike if conditions allow.” — Mike Baker [12:10]
  • Shatri highlights instability and prison breaks as breeding grounds for ISIS’s resurgence, referencing Syrian detention system breakdowns and desert escapes.
• Iraqi Response:
  • Iraq has rushed thousands of troops to the Syrian border out of fear of repeating the mistakes that enabled the original ISIS rise a decade ago.
• US Withdrawal:
  • The last US troops left Iraq’s Ayn al-Asad air base this month; American forces are now limited to the Kurdish region and expect to pull out by year’s end, compounding security fears.
  • “It’s too early to judge the full impact of the US withdrawal, but acknowledged it could complicate joint American-Iraqi operations, especially in remote terrain.” — Mike Baker [15:00]
• Domestic Complications:
  • Iran-backed Iraqi militias use renewed ISIS threat to argue for retaining arms, resisting calls for disarmament.

Notable Quote:

• “The need for the readiness of the resistance is more urgent than ever.”
  — Spokesman, Master of Martyrs Battalion (via Baker) [15:40]

3. Gaza Ceasefire: Disarmament for Amnesty?

(16:05–18:58)

• Pivot Point in Gaza:
  • With all Israeli hostages’ remains recovered, U.S. officials now signal that disarmament of Hamas may be paired with amnesty.
• US Official’s Statement:
  • During a background briefing, an anonymous Trump administration official said, “Hamas agreed to disarm and that amnesty for fighters who lay down their weapons is part of the discussion.” [17:35]
• Regional Diplomacy:
  • Baker underlines that any amnesty or disarmament plan would require coordination among Israel, the U.S., and regional actors (Qatar, Egypt, Turkey).
  • Turkey has already hosted Hamas officials to discuss phase two of the ceasefire and humanitarian conditions.
• Plan Details:
  • Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan: aid, border openings, and safe passage for departing fighters are contingent on disarmament; those who lay down weapons get amnesty, those who want out may leave.
• Political Ironies:
  • Hamas demands “urgent” Israeli fulfillment of commitments, though the group itself delayed returning deceased hostages.
    • “There’s irony to that urgent demand… the final hostage remains… were returned Monday, more than two months later.” [18:35]

4. U.S. Government Shutdown Looms: Immigration Enforcement at Heart of Dispute

(19:05–21:50)

• Political Backdrop:
  • Another potential partial government shutdown is on the horizon—less than three months after the last one—driven by deadlocks over immigration and recent fatal encounters involving federal agents.
• Sticking Point:
  • Senate Democrats threaten to block a $1.2 trillion funding package unless DHS funding is carved out to impose new constraints on immigration enforcement.
  • Democrats demand: judicial warrants for immigration arrests, mandatory federal agent identification, DHS cooperation with local agencies, and limits on federal agencies operating beyond immigration roles.
• Republican Stance:
  • GOP and Trump administration refuse to separate DHS funding, arguing this would undermine the main House-passed bill, increasing shutdown likelihood.
• Logistical Snarl:
  • If Senate amends the bill, it can’t be signed until the House—currently in recess—returns post-deadline.
• Shutdown Consequences:
  • IRS tax processing, air travel oversight, Head Start, and other services would be disrupted; DHS components like ICE and Border Patrol would keep running via previous funding, but other agencies (FEMA, TSA) would furlough staff or halt services.
• Political Calculus:
  • “The lesson here, perhaps, is never underestimate a politician’s willingness to use a government shutdown to score political points.” — Mike Baker [21:33]
  • Democrats hope recent tragedies will pressure Republicans, while the administration faces backlash over its handling of immigration enforcement—a crucial election-year issue.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran’s Internal Leaks:
  “When officials begin leaking the regime’s most sensitive decisions, it often signals a degree of internal mistrust or belief that the leadership’s grip may be weakening.”
  — Mike Baker [05:25]

• On Iran’s Proxies:
  “For Iran, proxy forces have always served as both a shield and a sword… When internal stability is shaky, those external levers become even more important.”
  — Mike Baker [07:05]

• On ISIS’s Threat:
  “He argues that the group functions as a single organization across borders and that even relatively small numbers can regroup, reposition and strike if conditions allow.”
  — Mike Baker [12:10]

• On U.S. Government Shutdown Politics:
  “The lesson here, perhaps, is never underestimate a politician’s willingness to use a government shutdown to score political points.”
  — Mike Baker [21:33]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:50 — Iran’s Supreme Leader orders crackdown; notable leaks from regime insiders
• 04:15 — Regime leaks and their implications
• 06:25 — Emergency powers and signals of regime vulnerability
• 07:05 — Proxy posturing and limits exposed
• 10:15 — Iraq spy chief on ISIS resurgence in Syria
• 12:10 — How ISIS operates across fractured state boundaries
• 15:00 — US troop withdrawal and the implications for ISIS containment
• 16:05 — Gaza ceasefire: Disarmament, amnesty, and shifting regional dynamics
• 17:35 — Anonymous US official discusses amnesty for Hamas fighters
• 19:05 — Looming US government shutdown, funding standoff over DHS and immigration enforcement
• 21:33 — Political maneuvering around the shutdown and its electoral stakes

Tone & Language

Mike Baker’s tone is pragmatic, direct, and occasionally sardonic, particularly regarding U.S. politics (“You’d think politicians really would have one job, and that would be to keep the government open. It seems simple…” [01:40]). He combines deep operational knowledge with accessible explanations, aiming to arm listeners with context they “need to know to help solve America’s most pressing challenges.”

Summary

This episode offers a clear-eyed view of three top-tier global security flashpoints—Iran’s shaky regime, the ISIS resurgence, and the future of Gaza—as well as a sharp analysis of recurring domestic gridlock in U.S. politics. Through detailed reporting, expert sourcing, and pointed commentary, it enables listeners to understand both the immediate developments and the deeper trends reshaping the geopolitical landscape in early 2026.