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The President's Daily Brief
January 7th, 2026: Why Maduro’s Fall Is a Strategic Disaster for Putin & Ukraine’s Postwar Plans
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It's Wednesday, the 7th of January. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Russia lashes out over the fall of Nicholas Maduro because, well, you know how much the Kremlin hates messing with the sovereignty of other nation. But the outrage from the Kremlin may be masking a serious strategic loss for Vladimir Putin. I'll bring you the details later in the show. The despot is gone, but the crackdown remains as Venezuelan authorities detain and deport members of the foreign press. Well, that's because all the other despots leading the Maduro regime are still in power. Plus, new details on what a post war Ukraine could look like. As the US Says it's ready to lead ceasefire monitoring alongside European allies. Now they just need Putin to decide he actually wants a ceasefire. And in today's back of the brief, North Korea rings in the New Year with missile launches into the Sea of Japan. What a better way to say Happy New Year than a missile launch. The Hermit Kingdom is claiming another advance in its hypersonic weapons program. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Moscow is responding forcefully to the removal of Nicolas Maduro, at least on paper. Informal statements this week, the Kremlin condemned the US Operation that took Maduro into custody, calling it a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and demanding his release. And there are few things as ridiculous as the Kremlin acting righteous about sovereignty. Russian officials have echoed that criticism, though through diplomatic channels and at the UN it, of course, is an argument that rings hollow when it comes from a country currently waging the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Russia's reaction, despite its obvious hypocrisy, was predictable. But it's also revealing because beyond the statements and the condemnations Maduro's fall represents a significant problem for Vladimir Putin. Venezuela was not just another friendly government. For Moscow, it was Russia's most important foothold in the Western Hemisphere. A reliable partner operating in Washington's backyard, openly aligned with the Kremlin and willing to challenge US Influence in the region. And for years, that relationship served a larger strategic purpose. It allowed Putin to argue that American dominance was fading and that a so called multipolar world was already taking shape. One in which US Power could be challenged even in its own backyard. As reporting from Politico makes clear, the speed and decisiveness of Maduro's removal exposed the limits of Russia's reach. One of Moscow's closest partners was confronted directly and The Kremlin was left responding with diplomatic protests rather rather than shaping events on the ground. It's similar to what took place in Syria as former despot Bashar Al Assad, a long time Russian ally, lost power and ended up watching daytime TV in a pokey apartment somewhere in Moscow. Over the years, Russia's partnerships, particularly with authoritarian regimes, haven't been built on formal defense guarantees. They've been built on perception. The belief that alignment with Moscow brings protection and leverage and staying power. And this, of course, is just the latest hit to Moscow's credibility. As mentioned, Russia already sat on the sidelines and watched a close partner fall in Syria and then stood by as Iran was embarrassed during its 12 day war with Israel. Episodes that chipped away at the idea that Moscow can reliably protect its allies. Russia's formal condemnation of the US operation in Caracas follows the same pattern. Loud objections, but no escalation, no meaningful response, and no clear way to reverse the outcome. Which raises an uncomfortable question for other Russian aligned governments. If Moscow couldn't meaningfully intervene for Venezuela, who else might find themselves on their own when pressure mounts? Beyond symbolism, the practical consequences for Russia are significant. Venezuela provided Moscow with leverage across Latin America. It was a partner in energy cooperation, a market for Russian weapons, and a willing participant in security and intelligence coordination. It also gave Russia a friendly voice in regional forums that routinely challenged U.S. policy. According to the Moscow Times, the Kremlin is being forced now to reassess what it actually wants and what it can realistically sustain in Latin America. Without a dependable partner in Caracas, Russia's influence in the Western Hemisphere risks shrinking to little more than diplomatic rhetoric. And this is happening at a particularly bad moment for Moscow. Russia remains heavily committed, of course, to the war in Ukraine. Its military resources are stretched, its economy is under pressure, and its diplomatic bandwidth is limited. Rebuilding influence in Latin America would require time and money and sustained attention, resources that Russia does not currently have in abundance. Which means Maduro's fall is not just a setback. It's a setback Russia may struggle to recover from in the near to mid term. And of course, other Russian partners are watching closely. From Latin America to the Middle East. Governments that have leaned on Moscow as a counterweight to the US are taking note. They're saying that Russia can offer weapons and political support and strong rhetoric, but that its ability to protect distant allies may be constrained when the stakes rise. That doesn't mean those relationships dissolve overnight, but it does weaken Russia's position and it makes alignment with Moscow look well somewhat one sided. There's also a broader narrative cost. Putin has spent years insisting that American power is in decline, that US Influence could be challenged even close to its own borders. Instead of highlighting American weakness, Maduro's removal underscores US Reach and the limits of Russian power far from home. So while much of the attention remains focused on what comes next for Venezuela, the more consequential fallout may be unfolding inside the Kremlin now. It's worth adding one important caveat here. Maduro's removal doesn't automatically mean that Russia's influence in Venezuela disappears. Much of the political and security apparatus he relied on remains in place now run by the same figures who benefited from being insiders in the Maduro regime. And despite the Venezuelan population's apparent elation over Maduro's removal, we're already seeing signs that his cronies now running the government are focused on business as usual. All right, coming up next, old habits die hard in Caracas with journalists detained and expelled. Plus, a look at Washington's plans to take the lead in monitoring a Ukraine ceasefire if a ceasefire happens. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, it is officially 2026 and a new year. Well, that means resolutions, doing better, working hard, harder showing up, and hopefully taking your health seriously. No excuses now. That's why I encourage you to try Beam's best selling Dream Powder. It's a healthy nighttime blend packed with proven ingredients shown to improve sleep so you can wake up refreshed and ready to take on the day. That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? Seriously, the Dream Powder works a treat. You'll sleep through the night without tossing and turning and you'll wake up energized. And that means more energy throughout the day. Dream is made with a powerful blend of all natural ingredients. Reishi L theanine, magnesium, apigenin and melatonin. Listen to me. With all those scientific technical terms, no junk, no next day grogginess, it's just all good stuff. 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Welcome back to the pdb. Despite Nicholas Maduro now calling a Brooklyn correctional facility home, very little appears to have changed in Caracas as his loyalists step in to run the show. Because while the strongman may be gone, the system he built is very much alive. And this week it wasted no time reminding the world how it operates. According to reporting from the New York Times, Venezuelan authorities detained at least 14 journalists in Caracas on Monday as they covered the first session of the national assembly since Maduro was captured and removed from the country. Most of those detained work for major international news organizations. One journalist was ultimately deported. All were eventually released, but not before their phones were searched, access codes demanded and private communications examined. This wasn't a random security sweep or a misunderstanding. Obviously it was targeted and it was deliberate. The journalists were covering a highly sensitive moment, the first legislative session since the US raid that ousted Maduro and brought him to face prosecution in the us. Inside the Caracas Chamber, lawmakers loyal to the regime condemned his capture and demanded his return. Outside, the message was just as clear. Only this one was aimed squarely at the press. Members of the media were told they could not record, photograph or live stream the session. At one point, military counterintelligence officers approached several journalists and escorted them away. Phones were seized, files were inspected. Contacts, messages, emails and even cloud stored material were all searched. This was about controlling information. So, at least for now, the name of the top of the regime in Venezuela has changed, but the game remains the same. Maduro's former vice president Delsey Rodriguez has been sworn in as interim president. The same security services remain in place, the same intelligence agencies, the same repressive nature and likely the same relationships with the narco traffickers that were the reported reason for the initial efforts against the Maduro regime. In other words, so far this is simply a reshuffling of the deck chairs. The actions against the media by the newly installed Rodriguez regime, basically all the same folks as the previous regime minus Maduro fits a long and familiar pattern. Free press has not existed in Venezuela for more than two decades. Journalists have been harassed, detained, charged or forced into exile for years. And that pressure intensified after the July 2024 election when Maduro was declared the winner despite overwhelming evidence and international community consensus that he had lost. Since then, journalists have been arrested and held for days or even months, often released later as a warning to others. According to Venezuela's National Press Workers union, at least 23 members of the media arrested after that election remain in detention today. Some face charges like terrorism or criminal conspiracy. Now, those labels are useful for the Venezuelan regime, not because they're accurate, but because they're flexible. They give the regime cover to criminalize journalism itself. And it's not just Venezuelan reporters. Foreign journalists have increasingly been targeted as well. A Univision team was detained and expelled just days earlier. Spanish and Colombian journalists were held at the border. Associated Press personnel were reportedly among those questioned inside the National Assembly. So while some may be tempted to see Maduro's removal as a turning point, stories like this tell a different tale. Removing a dictator does not automatically dismantle the machinery that he leaves behind. And as Venezuela's press union put it this week, it is impossible to move toward a democratic transition while censorship, political persecution and arbitrary detention remain state policy. Maduro may be gone, but for now, his playbook is still being followed. There are also reports from inside Venezuela that the Rodriguez regime is now on the hunt for anyone they believe may have supported the capture of Maduro or were sympathetic to the effort. Hmm. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Okay. Moving on to Europe, where the outlines of how a possible ceasefire in Ukraine would be monitored are becoming clearer. And the US is reportedly positioned to play a central role in making sure any ceasefire actually holds. A draft statement seen by AFP shows Washington prepared to lead a monitoring and verification mechanism in a post war Ukraine working with European partners to oversee any potential truce with Russia. What's clear from the draft is how much attention is being paid to the enforcement element. Under the proposal, Washington wouldn't just help broker a deal and step aside. The US Would also commit to supporting a European led multinational force deployed inside Ukraine. Now there is one problem in that last sentence. That being Putin has repeatedly and consistently drawn a red line on the presence of any international troops inside Ukraine. Regardless of reality, the monitoring, verification and enforcement efforts for a future ceasefire framed the planning meeting in Paris on Tuesday hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron. The so called coalition of the Willing, that's the Western backed group coordinating Ukraine's security support, gathered to work through those contingencies. Around the table were European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Trump's son in law Jared Kushner. The focus of the talks was straightforward, but consequential what kind of security guarantees Ukraine would actually need to deter future Russian aggression if a ceasefire does take hold? Well, it appears that allies are trying to lock in concrete commitments now before any agreement with Moscow is reached, a reflection of lessons learned since Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 and escalating to a full scale war in 2022. According to the text, the multinational force deployed after a ceasefire would provide reassurance measures in the air and at sea and on land, while also supporting the regeneration of Ukraine's armed forces. Now, not to throw a wrench in Witkoff and Jared Kushner's hopeful optimism, but that's another problem. One of Putin's demands has been and continues to be that any future Ukrainian military be limited in size to some Kremlin acceptable number. Although the imagined international force would be European led. The document is explicit about US involvement, including intelligence and logistics support, as well as the commitment to assist the force if it is to come under attack by Russia. Beyond defending the force itself, the draft goes even further, outlining binding U.S. and European commitments to support Ukraine in the event of any future Russian armed aggression. Those commitments could include the use of military capabilities, intelligence sharing, diplomatic action and the adoption of additional sanctions. Now, I know I'm sounding very cynical, but diplomatic action as a security guarantee is about as useful as side pockets on a cow anyway. The language from the Paris meeting reflects a shift toward obligations designed to trigger a coordinated response rather than a scramble to react after the fact. And this is where the document does its most important work. It underscores how much progress has been made on security guarantees in recent weeks. But of course, all this planning outlined in the draft remains contingent on establishing a ceasefire agreement that Russia has not yet accepted. I know I am sounding cynical. As we've discussed here on the pdb, much of the focus so far is centered on military aid packages and potential troop contributions. But diplomats now say attention has moved toward legally binding guarantees meant to respond automatically to Russian aggression. Kyiv has long argued that anything short of NATO style guarantees would fail to deter Moscow, while Russia continues to insist that any peace deal must bar Ukraine from joining military alliances. It's that tension, well, among other tensions that remains unresolved and continues to complicate negotiations. Still, efforts to end the nearly four year war have somewhat accelerated since November. And while significant political gaps do remain, the draft statement reflects growing alignment, at least among Ukraine's allies, on what a post ceasefire security framework could look like, suggesting that again, at least among Keef's partners Preparations are becoming more concrete even as diplomacy grinds on. Coming up in today's Back of the brief, Pyongyang opens 2026 the way it often does with missile launches and warnings. Huzzah. Just once it would be nice if they would, I don't know, try party hats and kazoos instead. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're like me, well, the holidays, they can hit pretty hard, right? All the travel, the r, lack of exercise. So for me, starting off the new year, I'm focused on my health and BUBS Naturals. Collagen peptides is a key weapon in that battle. Look, here's the thing. Collagen levels drop after your mid twenties. It's sad but true, leading to stiff joints, slower recovery, even thinning hair and nails. Who wants that? BUBS restores those levels with clean, grass fed collagen. Your joints won't ache, your recovery will be faster. Come on, what's not to like? So live better and longer and kick off 2026 the right way. Bubs is running a huge New Year new you sale. Plus, for a limited time only, PDB listeners are getting 20 off at Bubs Naturals by using code PDB at checkout. Just head over to Bubs. That's b u b s bubsnaturals.com and use code PDB and you're all set. And after you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Do me a favor. Tell them the PDB sent you in today's back of the brief. The calendar may have flipped to a new year, but North Korea wasted little time returning to old form, announcing a hypersonic missile launch in a display meant to signal military advancement, whether or not the technology actually lives up to the regime's claims. As usual, state media quickly followed the launch, reporting that the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan and that leader Kim Jong Un observed the test flights. That's a detail that regime rarely includes by accident. Placing Kim at the center of a weapons test frames the activity as political, not just military. Now, the backdrop of the launch is important. With a major ruling Workers Party Congress approaching in just a few weeks, Kim appears keen on opening 2026 with a visible military advance. But outside North Korea's own telling, the picture looks somewhat more complicated. Japan's Ministry of Defense said it detected at least two ballistic missile launches, estimating they landed just outside Japan's exclusive economic zone, assessing that the missiles flew on irregular trajectories. And that detail is important when North Korea talks about technological leaps. Regional tracking data often tells a more uneven story, one that cuts against the image that Pyongyang wants to project. But according to the state run Korean Central News Agency, the missiles struck Ocean targets roughly 600 miles away. KCNA said the drill was designed to test readiness, improve missile unit proficiency, and assess the operational capabilities of what it calls the country's war deterrent. As regular PDB listeners know, that language is familiar. North Korea tends to frame each new weapons test as a defensive and necessary measure, even as the claims surrounding those systems grow more ambitious. Still, Kim used the drill to reinforce that justification. He told state media, quote, through the drill we can confirm that a very important technology task for national defense has been carried out, adding that North Korea must, quote, continuously upgrade the military means. Now, I want to stress that if North Korea were to field a truly operational hypersonic weapon like it claims, it would pose a genuine challenge to U. S and South Korean defense systems. But that's the key caveat. Many allied governments remain unconvinced that Pyongyang has cleared the technical hurdles required for real hypersonic capability. Despite multiple tests over recent years, questions persist about whether the missiles have demonstrated sustained hypersonic speeds or the required maneuverability. The launch fits a pattern that has been building over recent months. North Korea has rolled out a stream of weapons reveals and activity, from what it describes as long range cruise missiles to images of its first nuclear powered submarine. Kim's goal appears less about breakthroughs and more about projecting momentum, regardless of how mature the technology may actually be. And that brings us back to the political calendar. With the Workers Party Congress looming, Kim appears determined to arrive with a record of visible military activity that he can point to as proof of success. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 7th January. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and if you're craving an ad free BDB experience, well, simply become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com It really is that simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.