January 8th, 2025: Iran Retreats From Syria & Zelensky’s Approval Crisis

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: January 8th, 2025

Host: Mike Baker | Released: January 8, 2025

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1. Iran Retreats From Syria: Implications for Regional Power

[00:31]

In today’s first major story, Syria shows signs of returning to normalcy following the overthrow of the Iranian-backed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in early December. The rebel coalition now governing Syria has announced the resumption of international flights from Damascus, marking a significant shift since most airlines ceased operations after the civil war erupted in 2011. Qatar Airways and Jordan's flagship carrier have promptly resumed flights, signaling renewed international engagement.

Impact on Iran’s Regional Ambitions

Iran's withdrawal from Syria marks a critical setback for its regional strategy. An exclusive report from The Wall Street Journal highlights that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has largely evacuated, severely weakening Iran’s influence. A senior U.S. official described the withdrawal as “pretty much yes, it's extraordinary” [02:20], emphasizing the extent of Iran’s diminished presence. Once a hub for coordinating proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, Iran’s strategic operations in Syria have been decimated, with nearly all Quds Force members now reportedly back in Tehran.

Consequences for Syria and the Middle East

The evacuation has left significant military equipment behind, some destroyed by Israeli airstrikes and much captured by HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham) rebels. Andrew Tabler, former National Security Council director for Syria, noted, “how disastrous will depend on whether Syria stays in one piece” [06:15], indicating potential vulnerabilities if sectarian divisions remain unresolved. HTS leader Ahmed Al Sharra (formerly Abu Mohammad al Jalani) declared that deposing Assad set Iran’s regional project back by “40 years” [04:45], underscoring the long-term implications for Iran’s ambitions.

Future Stability and Governance

Despite the withdrawal, the stability of Syria’s new rebel-led government remains uncertain. Al Sharra has pledged to transition away from militia governance towards a more inclusive government, though elections are unlikely in the near future. The success of these efforts is crucial for unifying a fractured nation and mitigating sectarian tensions.

2. Zelensky's Approval Ratings Plummet Amid War Stalemate and Peace Talk Pressure

[08:42]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a significant decline in his approval ratings, now at their lowest since the Russian invasion began. A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that trust in Zelensky has dropped from approximately 90% in March 2022 to 52% in December 2024 [10:05]. This sharp decline correlates with the deteriorating war situation as Russian forces break the battlefield stalemate, advancing into eastern Ukraine.

Internal and External Pressures

Zelensky’s initial popularity, bolstered by his steadfast leadership during the early stages of the invasion, has waned as war fatigue sets in. The executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology warned that this erosion of trust could “deal a critical blow to the institution of the presidency in Ukraine” [11:30]. Concurrently, U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for peace talks, leveraging Ukraine’s reliance on American support to potentially extract concessions. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s advisers advocate a “carrot and stick” approach, increasing military aid if Putin refuses negotiations and cutting support if Ukraine resists [12:50].

Zelensky’s Position and Public Sentiment

Zelensky has shown some openness to Trump’s proposals, indicating willingness to consider “temporarily ceding territories” [13:10] if NATO membership is assured. This stance reflects a growing sentiment among Ukrainians, with a Gallup poll showing that 52% favor negotiating an end to the war as soon as possible [14:00]. As public support for Zelensky diminishes and the prospect of Trump’s administration urging concessions looms, Zelensky’s leadership and legacy are under intense scrutiny.

3. South Korea’s Political Crisis: Impeached President Yoon Defies Detention

[08:42]

South Korea is engulfed in a political crisis as impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol remains defiant, refusing to comply with detention and search warrants. This standoff has escalated into a tense confrontation between rival government forces and Yoon’s presidential security outside his compound.

Background of the Impeachment

Yoon was impeached by parliament in mid-December, temporarily stripping him of presidential powers. The crisis intensified after Yoon declared martial law and deployed troops to surround the parliament, an action perceived by opposition lawmakers as an attempted rebellion [09:30]. Yoon justified his move as a response to legislative obstructionism, but it sparked fierce debate over executive overreach.

The Standoff

Last week, approximately 150 investigators and officers from the anti-corruption agency attempted to breach Yoon’s residence to detain him. They were met with resistance from 200 members of the Presidential Security Service, resulting in a prolonged standoff lasting over five hours [13:45]. The attempt ended unsuccessfully, and the agency has hinted at more forceful measures to enforce detainment.

Legal and Political Ramifications

With the initial warrants expired and an extension secured, the timeline for Yoon’s detention remains uncertain. Yoon’s lawyers have filed complaints alleging illegal actions by the investigators, while the Presidential Security Service chief maintains their duty to protect the president [14:35]. The Constitutional Court’s impending decision on whether to permanently remove or reinstate Yoon will significantly influence South Korea’s political landscape.

Public Opinion and Democratic Implications

Public opinion is sharply divided, with some supporting Yoon’s resistance as a stand against corruption, while others condemn his perceived overreach. This crisis tests the resilience of South Korea’s democracy and its adherence to the rule of law, potentially marking a pivotal moment for one of Asia’s leading democracies.

4. Iran’s Execution Surge: UN Report Alarming

[16:27]

In the final segment, a new United Nations report has raised alarms over the surge in executions in Iran. The 2024 figures show 901 executions, the highest annual total since 2015, positioning Iran as the world’s second-highest executioner after China [17:00].

Human Rights Concerns

The UN Commissioner for Human Rights condemned the executions as “an affront to human dignity” [17:30], urging Iran to impose a moratorium on capital punishment. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, have reported that many executions are politically motivated, targeting dissidents and individuals associated with protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Execution Statistics and Targets

While Iran maintains that the death penalty is reserved for heinous crimes like murder and drug trafficking, activists argue it is increasingly used to suppress political dissent. The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group reported at least 31 women executed in 2024, highlighting the regime’s broader pattern of societal repression [18:20]. December saw a particularly sharp increase, with approximately 40 executions in a single week [18:45].

International and Domestic Reactions

Despite international outcry, Tehran has not ceased its execution practices. The UN spokeswoman described the trend as “exceptionally high and deeply concerning” [19:15]. Human rights advocates continue to call for systemic reforms, but the Iranian regime remains steadfast in its use of the death penalty as a tool for maintaining control and suppressing opposition.

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Conclusion

Today's episode of The President's Daily Brief highlighted significant geopolitical shifts: Iran's strategic withdrawal from Syria undermining its regional influence, Ukrainian President Zelensky grappling with declining approval amid war fatigue and external pressures, South Korea facing a critical political standoff with its impeached president, and alarming human rights violations in Iran through a surge in executions. These developments underscore ongoing power struggles and the fragile state of international relations in key regions around the globe.

For further insights and detailed analysis, listeners are encouraged to tune in to future episodes of The President's Daily Brief hosted by former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker.

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For questions or comments, contact Mike Baker at [e-mail].

Transcript

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[Mike Baker]

Foreign 8 January welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed Today we begin in Syria as the country struggles to return to normalcy. Iran has largely withdrawn, signaling a major setback for the Iranian regime's regional ambitions. Will have all the details ahead later in the show. Trouble for Ukrainian President Zelensky. His approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest point since the Russian invasion began as doubts continue to grow among Ukrainians. Plus the latest from South Korea, where an ongoing standoff between rival government forces continues outside the presidential compound as the nation's impeached president remains inside, refusing to comply with detention and search warrants. And in today's Back of the Brief, a new United nations report reveals an alarming rise in executions in Iran last year, including about 40 in a single week in December. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We'll begin with an update out of Syria, where some semblance of normalcy appears to be returning to the war torn nation following the overthrow of Iranian backed dictator Bashar Al Assad in early December. Officials from the rebel coalition now governing the country announced that international flights in and out of Syria's main airport in Damascus would resume this week and that Syria was now ready to begin welcoming visitors from all over the world. It's actually a significant development as most international airlines suspended service to the country after the Syrian civil war kicked off back in March of 2011. Qatar Airways was the first major airliner to respond to the news, announcing that flights to Damascus had resumed on Tuesday for the first time in nearly 13 years. Following the news, Jordan's flagship carrier also announced that flights to Syria would resume this week. While there are still concerns about the stability of the new government, of course, which is being led by the Islamist group known as hts, the rebels appear eager to open their doors, back up and normalize ties with their neighbors, particularly now that Iran's stranglehold over the country appears to have been broken. Speaking of Iran, according to an exclusive report from our friends at the Wall Street Journal, the mullahs have pulled out nearly all of their forces from Syria in the aftermath of the rebel victory over Assad, once their strongest ally in the Middle East. The news represents a significant blow to the Iranian regime's regional strategy for projecting power and dominating the Middle East. It marks the collapse of a years long effort by Iran to use Syria as a central hub for their activities of their once powerful Axis of Resistance, which has been devastated by Israel over the past year. Leaders in Tehran had poured billions of dollars into this effort, sending thousands of military personnel and allied fighters to Syria after the bloody civil war broke out again in 2011. Notably, Syria served as a strategic base of operations for the IRGCs, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps elite Quds Force, which would coordinate the activities of proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis from inside Syria, providing Iran with some diplomatic cover. It also provided a land bridge for smuggling large amounts of weapons to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. Additionally, Iranian backed armed groups inside Syria have launched attacks on U.S. forces in the region and aided in attacks on Israel over the past year. At the height of their activity in Syria, Iran was believed to have at least 10,000 IRGC members stationed in the country who controlled some 55 military bases. But an unnamed senior US official said Tuesday that virtually all members of the Quds Force have now fled back to Iran and the militia groups that they once armed have disbanded. When asked if the Iranians were completely out of Syria, the State Department's top Middle east official simply said, quote, pretty much yes, it's extraordinary, end quote. Adding to the Iranian regime's embarrassment, the hasty evacuation of their personnel forced them to leave behind a significant amount of military equipment and weapons. Sounds like the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, doesn't it? Now, some of this equipment was reportedly destroyed in Israeli airstrikes, while much was captured by the HHS rebels. While U.S. officials told the Journal that Iran will likely attempt to reestablish its forces across the region, those plans may prove untenable given their weakened position and HTS hostility toward the mullahs. They view Iran as a major regional threat and keeping Tehran from rebuilding its military presence in the country is one of their top priorities. HTS rebel leader Ahmed Al Sharra, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al Jalani, previously said that by deposing Assad, his forces had set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years. Still, concerns remain largely revolving around the stability of Syria's new rebel led government. Schirra has pledged to shift away from militia style governance and to create a new government that features broad representation for Syria's many ethnic and religious factions, though he's also said elections will likely not be held for many years. It remains to be seen whether Shira's government can unify a fractured nation and address demands for accountability while also preventing deepening sectarian divisions. Andrew Tabler, a former director for Syria at the National Security Council, told the Journal that while the situation in Syria is a cataclysmic failure for Iran, quote, how disastrous will depend on whether Syria stays in one piece. They could find a way back in thanks to sectarian divisions that remain largely unresolved under the new regime, end quote. All right. Coming up after the break, Ukrainian President Zelensky faces his lowest approval rating since Russia's invasion. Plus the latest from South Korea, where rival government forces are locked in a standoff outside the presidential compound. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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Welcome back to the PDB. Turning to the war in Ukraine. As the brutal conflict continues to drag on, it appears President Zelensky is beginning to lose the confidence of his people. A survey released on Tuesday by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that Ukrainians trust in Zelensky has plummeted, dropping from roughly 90% back in March of 2022 to just 52% as of this December. It's a significant shift for a leader who enjoyed widespread popularity following Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in February of 2022, even drawing comparisons to Winston Churchill when he chose to remain in Kyiv amid Russia's initial aerial bombardment. But as uncertainty grows over the future of the war and whether Western allies will continue to provide the necessary aid to sustain their defense, Ukrainians are growing increasingly skeptical of Zelenskyy's leadership. The figures reportedly began to drop precipitously in 2024 as Russian forces broke the battlefield stalemate and began a slow and bloody advance in Ukraine's eastern provinces. Now, according to the poll, 39% of Ukrainians say they actively do not trust Zelensky, a staggering increase from just 7% back in March of 2022. The executive director for the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, pointing out the obvious, said the weakening of trust in Zelensky may jeopardize his future potential and wait as a public figure on the global stage. Yeah, you think? He warned that the evaporation of the public's trust could also deal a, quote, critical blow to the institution of the presidency in Ukraine. As his internal support erodes, Zelensky is attempting to balance his pledge to never bend to Russian aggression with President elect Donald Trump's calls for peace talks in 2025. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, Trump is intent, it appears, on bringing the war to an end and may use Ukraine's reliance on the US As a way to pressure Kiev into making concessions. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal in early December, Trump's senior national security advisers favor a, quote, carrot and stick approach to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, advocating boosting military aid to Kiev if Russian President Putin refuses to engage, and cutting off support to Ukraine if leaders in Kyiv appear to balk at participating in discussions. Trump himself has floated ceding large parts of Ukraine's eastern territories to Russia, areas that Moscow's forces currently occupy, as well as blocking Ukraine from joining the NATO alliance for an extended period. Zelensky, for his part, has shown an openness to aspects of Trump's proposals, saying he would be willing to consider temporarily ceding territories, but only if Ukraine is offered NATO membership. It's worth noting that a diplomatic solution may be increasingly favored by the Ukrainian people after nearly three years of war. A poll conducted by Gallup in the fall found that roughly 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. With Trump's return looming ever larger and public support declining inside his own borders, Zelensky finds himself in an increasingly precarious position as he enters the New Year. And his legacy well may hinge on just how he responds in the coming months. All right, Shifting to the ongoing political crisis in South Korea, impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol remains defiant, refusing to surrender to detention and search warrants, ensuring a standoff between rival government forces outside his presidential compound. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, Yoon, whose impeachment by parliament in mid December, temporarily stripped above presidential powers, has faced intense scrutiny since declaring martial law earlier that month. During what appeared to be a routine political impasse, Yun's decree sent shockwaves to the nation. The declaration involved deploying troops to surround parliament, an unprecedented move that opposition lawmakers described as an attempted rebellion. Yoon defended his actions as a necessary response to what he described as legislative obstructionism by the opposition dominated parliament. However, the move fueled fierce debate over executive overreach and led to accusations of rebellion. Lawmakers acted decisively, forcefully lifting the martial law decree just hours after it was enacted, leaving Yun politically isolated and legally vulnerable. The Constitutional Court now faces a pivotal decision whether to permanently remove Yun from office or reinstate him, a judgment that could significantly reshape South Korea's political landscape. The crisis deepened last week when a dramatic standoff unfolded between the anti corruption agency leading a joint investigation with police and the military and Yoon's presidential security forces. On Friday, an estimated 150 investigators and officers attempted to breach the barricades surrounding Yoon's residence to detain Yoon for questioning. However, they were met with a barricade of vehicles and resistance from 200 members of the Presidential Security Service. The confrontation, which lasted over five hours, ended without the investigators gaining entry. The agency has now suggested it might resort to more forceful measures to detain Yoon. While the initial warrants against Yun expired on Monday, an extension was secured on Tuesday, leaving the timeline for his detention uncertainty. Yun's lawyers have mounted a counteroffensive, filing complaints against the anti corruption agency's chief Prosecutor and the 150 investigators alleging illegal actions during the attempted detainment. The chief of the Presidential Security Service defended his team, stating they're legally obligated to protect the incumbent president and rejecting accusations of acting as Yun's private army. Yun, for his part, has vowed to, quote, fight to the end against efforts to oust him. His actions have sharply divided public opinion, with supporters praising his resistance and critics condemning his overreach. This standoff is emblematic of South Korea's fraught political history, where multiple precedents have often faced impeachment, arrest, or imprisonment. As South Korea grapples with this ongoing crisis, the Constitutional Court's decision, of course, looms large. The outcome could test the resilience of South Korea's democracy and its commitment to the rule of law, marking a pivotal moment in one of Asia's leading democracies. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, a new UN report reveals Iran carried out a record number of executions last year, triggering alarm among human rights groups. I'll have more on that when we come back.

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[Mike Baker]

In today's Back of the Brief. Iran's use of the death Penalty surged in 2024 with 901 executions as the regime wields the death penalty as punishment and a tool of repression, raising alarm among human rights advocates. Of course. On Tuesday, the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights decried the wave of executions as an affront to human dignity, imploring Iran to impose a moratorium on capital punishment. Well, I'm sure that will do it. Maybe you could add a harshly worded memo and get the job done completely, Turk stated, quote, it's high time Iran stemmed this ever swelling tide of executions, calling for systemic reform to address the issue. Every now and then you just have to look at what the UN does and think, do they actually live in the real world or not? Amnesty International and other watchdog groups corroborate the crisis, placing Iran as the world's second highest executioner behind China, where reliable data, of course, is elusive. Tehran claims the death penalty targets heinous crimes such as murder, drug trafficking and sexual violence. Yet activists argue that the regime has increasingly wielded it as a tool of political repression, silencing dissent and instilling fear. This harrowing trend gained momentum after nationwide protests erupted in 2022 and 2023 following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. The UN rights office revealed that while many executions in 2024 stemmed from drug related offenses, a significant number targeted dissidents and individuals connected to those protests. The scope of repression extends further. According to the Norway based Iran Human Rights group, at least 31 women were executed in 2024, reflecting a broader pattern of societal repression under the regime. December alone saw a sharp Spike with approximately 40 individuals executed in a single week, a pace that human rights organizations including the Human Rights Activists News agency confirmed. Despite Tehran's refusal to release Official data, the 901 executions recorded in 2024 represent the highest annual total in Iran since 2015. Congratulations. You beat your old record when a minimum of 972 people were executed. After a brief decline following reforms to Iran's anti narcotics laws in 2017, execution rates have risen sharply since 2022. A UN spokeswoman described the trend as, quote, exceptionally high and deeply concerning. End quote. Oh, deeply concerning. Calls for Tehran to abolish a death penalty grow louder and continue to be ignored as human rights organizations urge reforms. Yet for now, the regime's unrelenting execution campaign, well, it does serve as a grim reminder of its determination to suppress dissent and consolidate power. All right, that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 8th January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course to listen to the show ad free. Well, it is very easy. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com See? I told you it was easy. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.