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The President's Daily Brief
July 14th, 2025: Is Russia Turning On Iran? & Trump Contemplates More Weapons For Ukraine
00:25:54
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Mike Baker
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The last thing he needs is to lose another ally in the Middle East. So getting a peace deal and keeping the Iranian regime out of the U. S Crosshairs might keep the mullahs and the IRGC in power, which of course would benefit Putin. So perhaps there's some self interest here. Later in the show. The Trump administration is now weighing multiple options to get more weapons into Ukrainian hands, either through a new aid package worth hundreds of millions of dollars by selling arms to NATO allies who can transfer them to Ukraine, or potentially both. Plus, the Pentagon is demanding answers from US Allies about what role they'd play in a possible war over Taiwan. Will countries like Japan and Australia commit or keep dodging the question? Perhaps. Which begs the question, would the US Commit troops to a possible war over Taiwan? And in today's back of the brief in the ongoing trade wars saga, President Trump threatens 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1st. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We begin today with a possible major shift in the Middle east and one that could upend years of coordination and cooperation between two of America's biggest geopolitical adversaries. According to a New report from Axios. Russian leader Vladimir Putin privately told both President Trump and Iranian officials that he supports a nuclear agreement that would completely prohibit Iran from enriching uranium. Now that might not sound groundbreaking at first, but here's why it matters. Russia has long been Iran's top diplomatic shield when it comes to nuclear negotiations. Publicly, Moscow has always maintained that Tehran has a right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the non proliferation treaty. But privately, according to multiple Western and Israeli officials, Putin seems to be changing his tone, particularly after the recent 12 day war between Israel and Iran. Axios cites three European officials and one Israeli official with knowledge of the conversations. All say that Moscow has encouraged Iran to accept a so called zero enrichment framework, essentially giving up all ability to enrich uranium within its borders. And that message, well, wasn't kept quiet. According to the report, Russian officials even briefed the Israeli government about Putin's stance. One senior Israeli official told Axios, we know that this is what Putin told the Iranians. Now, Putin also conveyed this position during recent calls with both President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. One European official with direct knowledge of the issue said, quote, putin would support zero enrichment. He encouraged the Iranians to work towards that in order to make negotiations with the Americans more favorable, end quote. In other words, Putin isn't just nudging Iran for diplomacy's sake. He wants to help restart the talks between Tehran and Washington, but only if Iran gives up the most contentious part of its nuclear program. To sweeten the deal, Russia has reportedly offered to provide Iran with pre enriched uranium fuel. Specifically 3.67% uranium for use in nuclear power plants and limited quantities of 20% enriched uranium for Iran's research reactor and the production of medical isotopes. That kind of arrangement isn't new. Russia already provides fuel for Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. And part of the goal of that model was to prevent Iran from developing an independent enrichment capability in the first place. But if the report is true, what's more striking is the timing. This comes just weeks after the 12 day war between Israel and Iran. A war in which Russia essentially left Iran out to dry. Despite years of security cooperation and shared opposition to the West. Moscow offered, well, little more than vague press statements and platitudes while Iranian cities were bombarded and its military assets targeted. In part, their action was because their war machine, meaning Russia's war machine, is stretched thin after three grinding years waging war on Ukraine. And in part because it's, well, not in their best interests to get into a direct conflict with the US While Putin undoubtedly worries about the Iranian regime collapsing and the Kremlin losing a key ally in the Middle East, Putin undoubtedly worries more about Putin and his own grip on power. But to Iran's hardliners and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, well, that silence from the Kremlin was a snub. And now reports that Russia is pressuring Iran behind closed doors to accept the US Position on uranium enrichment. Well, for the mullahs and the irgc, that's a hard pill to swallow. So it's not a surprise that Iran is pushing back against the story. According to Tasman News, an outlet closely affiliated with the irgc, a quote, informed source has denied the Axios report outright. The source called the claim false and accused the, quote, Zionist media of fabricating the story. The outlet went further, insisting that, quote, Tehran has not received such a message from Putin in any way. But the tone of that denial says a lot. The Iranian regime appears rattled, concerned that Russia is backing away from its long held positions and leaving Tehran diplomatically isolated. Still, there are signs that Iran is trying to possibly to re engage. Iran's foreign minister said over the weekend that his country would be open to restarting nuclear talks with the US if there were guarantees of no more attacks. He told foreign diplomats in Tehran, quote, assurance should be provided that in case of a resumption of talks, the trend will not lead to war, end quote. But Iran's position on enrichment, well, that hasn't changed. In that same speech, he said, quote, we will not have any agreement in which enrichment is not included. The rights of the Iranian people on the nuclear issue, including the right to enrichment, must be respected, end quote. So you ask, where does that leave us besides being confused over the mixed messages? Well, Putin may be trying to play peacemaker. That's not likely. Or he may simply be recalibrating Russia's priorities after Iran's recent conflict with Israel. I'm going out on a limb here and stating that it's not the former. If the reports are accurate, Putin isn't making these overtures because he's enamored with peace. He's doing it because he views it as a strategic move that's in his best interests. Regardless. If Russia is really shifting its stance, it could mark a major turning point in both the nuclear talks and and the alliance between Moscow and Tehran. Okay. Coming up after the break, the Trump administration calculates new ways to get weapons to Ukraine, while the Pentagon pressures US Allies to clarify their roles in a potential war over Taiwan. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, let's talk personal finances. Let me ask you a question. What if you could delay your next two mortgage payments? Hmm. Intriguing, right? That's right. Imagine putting those two payments in your pocket and finally getting a little breathing room. Well, it's possible. When you call American Financing Today if you're feeling stretched by everyday expenses, groceries, auto payments, various bills piling up, well, you're not alone. Most Americans are putting these expenses on credit cards and there doesn't seem to be a way out. 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Miranda Devine
Power, Politics and the People behind the Headlines I'm Miranda Devine, New York Post columnist and the host of the brand new podcast Pod Force One. Every week I'll sit down for candid conversations with Washington's most powerful disruptors, lawmakers, newsmakers and even the President of the United States. These are the leaders shaping the future of America and the world. Listen to podforce One with me, Miranda Devine every week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. You don't want to miss an episode.
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Mike Baker
Welcome back to the pdb. For the first time since returning to office, President Trump is weighing whether to greenlight new military aid for Ukraine, potentially using NATO as a conduit for American made weapons. The move, still under deliberation, comes on the heels of what Ukrainian officials say last week was Russia's largest drone strike campaign since the full scale invasion began back in February of 2022. The record setting barrage, as we discussed here on the pdb, pummeled Kyiv and other cities. According to multiple diplomatic sources who spoke to CBS News, the Trump administration is actively considering a new aid package as a signal to Moscow that the US May re engage more forcefully as Russia's escalation continues. Trump himself sent the clearest signal yet during A Cabinet meeting nearly a week ago, telling reporters, quote, putin is not treating human beings right. He's killing too many people. So we're sending some defensive weapons to Ukraine, and I've approved that, end quote. Now that marks a notable departure from his earlier tone. Of course, for months, Trump had railed against what he called blank check aid to Kiev, questioning its strategic value and pressing European allies to pick up the slack. The move also comes after a tense call between Trump and Putin earlier this month, a conversation that Trump characterized as, quote, very disappointing. Now, that exchange appears to have spurred a recalibration of policy. The President has thrown his weight behind a plan that would see NATO, for the first time in its history, serve as the centralized purchaser and distributor of U. S. Made weapons to a non member nation. Until now, only individual NATO countries, not the alliances and institution, had armed Ukraine. In an interview with NBC News, Trump said, quote, we're sending weapons to NATO and NATO is paying for those weapons 100%. Behind the scenes, officials are now scrambling to figure out what that actually looks like. According to US And NATO military sources, the Pentagon is exploring ways to fast track key systems, chief among them, Patriot air defense batteries. But that's easier said than done. Under US Law, countries that buy American weapons need approval to transfer them to third parties like Ukraine. The Trump administration has previously granted such permissions, but never at this scale and never through NATO itself. NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta reportedly held a call with U.S. defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kain, and General Alexis Grinkovich, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Europe, to map out next steps. And speaking from the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, Rubio confirmed that discussions were underway, but didn't sugarcoat the logistical roadblocks. He stated, quote, some of the systems that Ukraine requires are systems that Europe doesn't make. They would have to purchase them from the U.S. what remains unclear is how any new weapons package would be funded. Administration officials say Trump still has access to approximately $3.85 billion in leftover presidential drawdown authority, meaning emergency funds granted under the Biden administration that could be reallocated at Trump's discretion. Additionally, Trump retains authority to Redirect up to $5 billion in frozen Russian assets, though neither he nor his predecessor ever exercised that option. If finalized, the plan would not only mark a shift in Trump's own foreign policy trajectory, but could also redefine NATO's role in the war. And with waves of Russian drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, well, the window for action could be closing. All Right. Shifting our focus to the Indo Pacific, the Pentagon is pressuring Japan and Australia to define their military roles in a potential US China conflict over Taiwan, according to a Financial Times report. Citing officials familiar with the matter, U.S. undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby raised the issue during recent high level meetings with defense officials from both countries. The request, while signaling growing urgency and US Strategic planning, has stirred diplomatic discomfort, particularly as the US Itself maintains no formal defense guarantees to Taiwan. In a post to X, Colby cast a pressure campaign as part of President Trump's America first doctrine, one that seeks to, quote, restore deterrence and achieve peace through strength. He made clear the administration expects allies to boost defense spending to prepare for potential collective action. Australia's Defense industry Minister Pat Conroy, hit back, telling the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that, quote, the decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day not in advance. He dismissed the US Overture as a hypothetical that Canberra doesn't entertain. Still, Conroy struck a cautionary note on China's expanding military footprint, warning that Beijing's push to secure bases across the Pacific, along with its ramp up in nuclear and conventional forces, is, quote, not in Australia's national interest. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, had every reason to stay diplomatic. Speaking from Shanghai, China, at the start of a six day trip aimed at patching up fractured trade ties with China, he reiterated Australia's opposition to any unilateral change to the status quo on Taiwan. But his tone was muted, likely a reflection of the moment. Tokyo, for its part, has remained silent. Yet despite Canberra's official reluctance to speculate on war, the message from its military couldn't be clearer. Over the weekend, Australia kicked off its largest ever multinational defense exercise with the US the two week Talisman saber drills, which began Sunday, span air, sea, land and space domains with over 40,000 troops from 19 nations participating, including Japan and the UK Vice Admiral Justin Jones, Australia's top operational commander, put it bluntly, stating, quote, I'll leave it to China to interpret what 19 friends, allies and partners wanting to operate together in the region means to them, end quote. He noted Chinese military vessels had shadowed previous iterations of the exercise and are expected to do so again from the American side. Lt. Gen. Joel Val, deputy commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, offered a similarly calibrated message, saying, quote, our ultimate goal is no war, but instability in the region demands collective preparation, end quote. And that instability isn't hypothetical. As we've tracked here on the pdb, Beijing continues to ramp up military pressure on Taiwan, including aerial incursions and maritime maneuver war games aimed at testing the island's defenses. Chinese Communist Party officials maintain that Taiwan is part of their sovereign territory and they've not ruled out the use of force to bring it under their control. Taipei's leadership, however, well, they remain adamant that only its citizens, the Taiwanese, can decide their own future. All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, Trump's global tariff war continues with new threats, this time targeting imports from Mexico and the European Union and with a 30% duty. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now here's an important fact that you might have missed. July is National Grilling Month, it's true. And Tritails Beef is helping you celebrate the American way over a fire with real beef raised by real ranchers. 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Bill O'Reilly
Hey, Bill O'Reilly here, host of the no Spin News corporate media programs. They're often lazy and dishonest. You know that. The podcast world filled with misleading bomb throwers masking important issues that directly impact you. The no Spin News is here to counteract that we are a fact based, honest and unfair affiliated broadcast. Our purpose is to inform you and give the best assessment of the situation, whether it's political or cultural. Please listen to the no Spin News with me, Bill O'Reilly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever podcasts are found. Remember, trust is earned.
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Mike Baker
In today's Back of the brief, President Trump has reignited his tariff offensive, threatening 30% duties on imports from the European Union and Mexico unless more balanced agreements are reached by 1 August. The threats came in the form of letters posted over the weekend to Truth Social addressing European Commissioner President Ursula von der Leyen. Trump said the U.S. had, quote, decided to move forward with the tariffs and citing long standing trade imbalances and protectionist behavior from Brussels. A similar letter was delivered to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in which Trump criticized Mexico's efforts to halt the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. as quote, not enough. The announcements mark an escalation in Trump's ongoing tariff offensive, one that we've tracked closely here on the PDB, where rates have bounced between 25 and 40%, depending on the target and timing. In both weekend letters, the Trump stated that the 30% tariff would apply across the board, exempting only pre existing sectoral duties like the 25% auto levy. Von der Leyen responded by warning that the proposed duties would wreak havoc on supply chains and drive up prices for consumers across both continents. She added that the eu, quote, will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the activation of proportional countermeasures, though those remain on hold for now. The eu, according to senior officials, has finalized an initial tranche of countermeasures covering roughly $24 billion in U.S. goods, with the second tranche held in reserve should negotiations falter. Mexico, however, has opted for a quieter approach. A spokesman for the country's Economy Ministry has confirmed that a delegation warned US Trade officials that the proposed tariffs constitute what they call, quote, unfair treatment. President Sheinbaum, aiming to avoid escalation with Washington, expressed hope that a deal could still be reached to safeguard cross border commerce. But Trump left little doubt that he expects total capitulation. Any retaliation, he warned, would be met with even steeper duties. He wrote, quote, whatever number you choose to raise tariffs by will be added on to the 30% that we charge. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant doubled down on Fox News, accusing the EU of dragging its feet. Brussels, he said, failed to meet proposals already accepted by, quote, other important trading partners. With just weeks to go before the August deadline, trade allies are scrambling. Trump, meanwhile, is pressing forward, reviving tariffs as a cornerstone of his economic playbook to use as leverage until concessions are made or consequences are felt. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Monday 14th July. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhfirsttv.com and to listen to the show ad free. You can do that, you know. It's very simple. Just become a Premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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Mike Baker
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