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The President's Daily Brief
July 15th, 2025: Trump’s Ukraine Weapons U-Turn & Missed Warnings in Butler
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Mike Baker
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All right, let's get briefed. First up, a major shift in US Strategy in Europe. President Trump says he'll sell weapons to European allies so that they can arm Ukraine. And he's also warning Putin that a 50 day countdown to increase tariffs and possible additional sanctions has begun. Now let's have a show of hands to see who thinks Putin will change his stripes in the next 50 days. We'll have those details later in the show. Iran is threatening retaliation if the UN Reimposes sanctions over its nuclear program. European powers say time is running out for a deal. Plus, massive live fire drills are underway in Australia, drawing 35 to 40,000 troops from around the world. And as you might suspect, China is watching intently. And in today's Back of the Brief, a year after the failed attempt on President Trump's life in Butler, Pennsylvania, a new Senate report. Oh good. Reveals a series of preventable failures by the Secret Service. And for that, the entire Senate receives today's BDB report of the obvious award. But first, today's BDB spotlight. President Trump appears to have lost all remaining patience with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. Well, almost. Announcing plans to give Ukraine substantial military aid via a somewhat circuitous route while threatening Moscow with crippling new sanctions and tariffs if they don't come to the negotiating table within the next 50 days. 50 now, none of the journalists in today's press conference asked the President if there was something significant about that 50 day deadline the President announced the shift in US and NATO policy on Monday during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House. Now, the centerpiece of the strategy involves having European allies foot the bill for boosting weapons transfers to Ukraine, helping to arm Kyiv with missiles, artillery shells and of course, those desperately needed air defense batteries like the highly coveted Patriot missile system. Essentially, Trump plans to have European allies send advanced weaponry to Ukraine from their own stocks, in part so they can be deployed to the battlefield faster, as well as to avoid further depleting already dwindling American stockpiles. Critically, those countries will then purchase replacements from America's military industry, the old military industrial complex. They could also purchase new US Weapons for immediate transfer to Ukraine, according to a report from Axios. Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the uk, the Netherlands and Canada have already expressed interest in participating in this new arrangement. Sources say that Germany will lead the effort and as already agreed to send Patriot air defense batteries as part of the first wave of weapons under this model. While Trump made a point of stressing that the US Needs to maintain current weapons stockpiles for its other global missions. I'd be remiss if I didn't also mention that this arrangement will allow Trump to avoid a fight with members of his own party in Congress, many of whom, again mostly on the Republican side of the aisle, are unwilling to pass another direct aid bill for Kyiv. It also allows Trump to avoid providing direct aid to Ukraine after spending the past three years criticizing the Biden administration for writing blank checks to support Ukraine. While the full list of weaponry has not been revealed, Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said they're not taking anything off the table, meaning offensive weapons could likely be included. Two White House sources told Axios that the plan will include long range missiles that could be used to strike DE into the heart of Russia, though that reporting remains unconfirmed. Now, securing more Patriot batteries and other critical munitions is certainly a big win for Ukraine. President Zelensky has spent months advocating for more Western aid to help propel the aggression of the Putin regime under the proposed plan. And according to a source familiar with the discussions talking to Axios, Europe will be footing a large bill for the assistance, saying the first wave of transfers will involve the US selling roughly $10 billion in weapons to NATO allies. For some perspective, the US has provided roughly $66.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full scale invasion in February of 2022. While the White House, Pentagon and NATO work out the specifics of the New weapons plan. Trump is also threatening to up the economic pressure on Russia over Putin's ongoing aggression and failure really to do anything meaningful when it comes to peace negotiations. The President gave Putin a deadline of 50 days to reach a ceasefire accord with Kyiv or face aggressive new sanctions. If Putin ignores the ultimatum, the president will place a 100% tariff on the import of all Russian goods and place a secondary tariff of 100% on countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other energy products. Secondary tariffs could deal a major blow to Russia's oil trade, which of course is their primary source of revenue and which of course has been aided significantly by countries like China and India. In a telling remark, Trump told reporters Monday, quote, I speak to Putin a lot about getting this thing done, and I always hang up and say, well, that was a nice phone call. And then missiles launch into Kyiv or some other city after that happens three or four times. Well, you say the talk doesn't mean anything. Now, there are serious, very experienced Russian analysts within the intel community in the US they could have told you years ago that Putin's talk doesn't mean anything. But I digress. Trump's newfound frustration regarding Putin's trustworthiness no doubt is certainly welcome news to leaders in Kyiv. However, it is worth asking, will this new strategy be much of a game changer? While it sends a strong message, these weapons transfers won't happen overnight. Meanwhile, as the slow bureaucratic process begins, Russia is currently amassing some 50,000 troops along their border with Sumy in northeastern Ukraine. And they'll soon be aided by a reported influx of some 30,000 North Korean soldiers. This buildup suggests that the Kremlin is preparing for a large scale assault against Ukraine, with South Korean intelligence warning it could come within the next two months. Russia has also relentlessly escalated their aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure over the past few weeks. Last week alone, according to Zelensky, Russia launched more than 1800 drones, 1200 glide bombs and 83 missiles at Ukraine. And they're not really even pretending to just target military infrastructure at this point. Targets have been all over the map. Apartment buildings, retail centers, hospitals, and the ever popular energy facilities. It's an attempt to demoralize the Ukrainian population and break their economy. Seizing on the lack of decisive leadership in the west when it comes to the war and the West's, particularly the United States, apparent willingness to cling to the hope that Putin will sit down at the negotiating table. Putin appears determined to do as much damage to Ukraine's infrastructure as possible, as he attempts to seize more territory. Until the US to NATO to Ukraine weapons train gets rolling in an aggressive and consistent manner, you can expect Putin to not change his stripes anytime soon. Certainly not in 50 days. Alright, coming up after the break, Iran threatens retaliation over renewed UN sanctions and some 35,000 troops and 19 nations take part in massive war games in Australia while China keeps a close watch. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's take a brief moment, shall we, to talk about ways to protect your hard earned savings. Now I know the personal finance talk isn't everybody's favorite, but it is incredibly important, particularly in times of uncertainty. Now, one of the smartest ways to protect your savings is through diversification. And one way to diversify is with gold from Birch Gold Group. Look, gold is up some 40% in the past year and central banks, well, they're buying record amounts in part, well because of global instability. 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Iran has threatened retaliation against any effort to reimpose UN sanctions over its now battered nuclear program, setting the stage for a potential high stakes showdown. The threat comes as European capitals edge closer to triggering the old 2015 nuclear deal's snapback mechanism. As we've previously discussed here on the PDB, the mechanism embedded in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action known as the JCPOA, allows any signatory to the deal to reinstate UN sanctions if Iran is found in significant non compliance. If such claims are not resolved through negotiations, the issue moves to the 15 member UN Security Council, where sanctions can be automatically reimposed without the possibility of a veto if triggered. The snapback would reinstate a ban on arms sales, restrictions on ballistic missile activity and renewed limits on the mullah's oil exports and financial transactions. The move would also freeze Iranian assets abroad and reimpose travel bans on individuals tied to the regime's nuclear missile programs. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai dismissed growing threats from Europe to invoke the mechanism, warning that any such move would be met with a, quote, proportionate response from Tehran. Now, I'd like to note that he didn't detail what that threat might entail, but he rejected the entire effort as illegitimate. The Foreign Ministry spokesman accused Britain, France and Germany of fundamentally violating the JCPOA themselves, saying they have, quote, no legal or moral standing to resort to this mechanism. He added, quote, they failed to fulfill their duties undertaken under the JCPOA and accused the European capitals of attempting to impose the possibility as a tool of control. The warning came as a French diplomatic source told Reuters that European powers may soon be compelled to restore sanctions unless a new nuclear agreement is reached, one that guarantees long term security for the continent. The remarks reflect mounting frustration in European capitals over Iran's refusal to accept stricter oversight and its acceleration of uranium enrichment. Well, that frustration only took about several decades. Although the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 during President Trump's first term, European signatories have kept the accord on, well, basically life support, despite Tehran's repeated violations in the years since. As we've discussed, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program dramatically, particularly in the lead up to last month's joint U. S. Israeli airstrikes on the regime's nuclear facilities. Still, Iran insists that its nuclear ambitions remain peaceful and denies accusations that it is secretly pursuing atomic capabilities despite its enrichment to 60%, just a short jump away from weapons grade. Of course, they've never really explained why if they're all about peace, they jumped up to 60% enrichment. Perhaps the UN forgot to ask them. Trump, in his second term, continues to criticize the original nuclear agreement as weak and has pushed for a broader, more enforceable deal. After a ceasefire last month brought an end to the 12 day war between Israel and Iran, Trump called on the regime to resume negotiations with his administration. Now, when asked whether Iran's foreign minister would meet with Trump's Middle east envoy, Steve Witkoff to relaunch those talks, Bagai said, well, no date or location had been set. Okay. Shifting to the South Pacific, more than 35,000 troops from 19 nations have descended on Australia for the country's largest ever joint military exercise and to drink massive quantities of Foster's Lager. Just as Chinese spy ships are once again expected to shadow the drills from international waters. As we touched on Monday's PDB exercise, Talisman Sabre kicked off over the weekend with a formal ceremony in Sydney and will unfold over the next three weeks. The biennial war game, co hosted by the US will stretch for the first time to Papua New guinea, signaling an expanded footprint in the Indo Pacific amid rising tensions over the South China Sea and China's military pressure on Taiwan. The scope is staggering as forces from the U.S. france, Japan, Germany, South Korea and the UK just to name a few, are all taking part. Malaysia and Vietnam, while not actively participating, are attending this year as observers. On Monday, the Australian army made a show of FirePower launching a US supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, in northeastern Queensland. It marked the first time that the Aussies have fired the long range rocket system in a live exercise underscoring the growing integration of allied forces. However, it's not just about firepower. Talisman Sabre is also a demonstration of readiness coordination. The timing is no coincidence. Just months ago we reported here on the PDB of a Chinese flotilla staging unexpected live fire drills off the Australian coast that jolted Canberra's defense establishment. And since 2017, Chinese surveillance ships have shadowed every iteration of this joint exercise. Australian Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy confirmed that similar monitoring is expected this year. Conroy told reporters, quote, it'd be very unusual for China not to observe it, noting that the People's Liberation Army Navy typically watches much of the action from international waters. Conroy left little doubt that Beijing's proximity will shape how the drills unfold, stating, we'll obviously observe their activities and monitor their presence and we'll also adjust how we conduct these exercises. As of now, no Chinese spy ships have appeared. However, officials in Canberra say it's only a matter of time. The drill is coming at a delicate moment, diplomatically for Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in China this week on a six day visit and is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping today in Beijing. The visit, intended to ease trade tensions, overlaps, let's say awkwardly, with the massive military exercise that's designed to counter Chinese influence in the region. Meanwhile, Washington has its own expectations. As we noted earlier this week, U.S. officials are pressing Canberra for clarity on whether its soon to be acquired nuclear submarines secured under the Aukus Pact might be used in the event of a US China conflict over Taiwan. Albanese sidestepped the question from reporters during a stop in Shanghai, offering instead the well worn talking point about advocating for, quote, advancing peace and security in the region, well, that's nice and worthwhile. But for us and allied commanders, the purpose of the exercise is unmistakable. It's a dress rehearsal for coordinated military action designed to make clear to Beijing that its continued aggression in the South China Sea or any attempts to seize Taiwan by force will not go unanswered. Coming up next, in the back of the brief, a scathing report. Ooh, scathing Senate report Outlines what went wrong in Butler, Pennsylvania. Now, not to sound cynical, but Capitol Hill produces scathing reports all the time. Both political parties constantly poop out scathing reports fueled by the ever present outrage over whatever. But nothing ever really changes in Washington, D.C. stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk personal finances. Now, let me ask you a question. This may sound strange, but what if you could delay your next two mortgage payments? Intriguing, right? Imagine putting those two payments in your pocket and finally, finally getting a little breathing room. Now, it's possible. When you call American Financing today. Look, if you're feeling stretched by everyday expenses, groceries, auto payments, various bills are piling up. Well, you're not alone. Look, most Americans are putting these expenses on credit cards. And for many, well, there doesn't seem to be a way out. American Financing can show you how to use your home's equity to pay off that debt. So if you're feeling stressed and stretched, call American Financing Today and learn how they could help. 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So with the all new 2025 Ford Expedition Tremor bring a lot like three dirt bikes, a few tents, an entire crew ready to make memories, a panoramic 24 inch display, and the confidence to push your limits. The all new 2025 Ford Expedition Tremor. Always consult the owner's manual before off road driving. Know your terrain and trail difficulty and use appropriate safety gear. Max payload varies based on accessories. Vehicle configuration See label and door jam for carrying capacity of a specific vehicle. Always properly secure cargo in today's Back of the Brief exactly one year to the day after the assassination attempt on President Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, a new Senate report highlights a cascade of Secret Service failures that preceded the shooting. Now the report issued on Sunday by the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental affairs found that at least 10 urgent requests from Trump's campaign detail, including those for counter sniper teams, were either denied or left unfulfilled by Secret Service headquarters. The consequences were immediate and catastrophic, as our PDB listeners know. Gunfire erupted at the rally as Trump addressed the crowd, grazing his ear and leaving his face bloodied. A rally goer, former Fire Chief Corey Capatore, was killed while shielding his family and several others were injured. A separate House investigation from December called the attack, quote, preventable. And you ask how many investigators did it take to come up with that analysis? Among the most serious findings from the Senate report is that the campaign's request for counter drone coverage at the rally, a key surveillance safeguard, of course, was reportedly rejected during a phone call with a Technical Security Division agent. Now that denial was never recorded. Now lapse, the committee calls part of a, quote, disturbing pattern of communications failures and negligence inside the Secret Service. To build the report, Senate investigators conducted 17 transcribed interviews with U S Secret Service personnel and discovered that at the time of the shooting, the agency had no standardized process to submit, justify or track campaign security requests, effectively leaving Trump's team without recourse when court protections were denied. The report paints a picture of not just negligence, but institutional chaos. Critical assets were delayed or ignored, some were punted to local police, and in other cases, the campaign was simply left in the dark. Senator Rand Paul, who chairs the committee, accused then Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheadle, remember her, of misleading Congress when she testified last July that no requests had been denied. Paul told CBS News, quote, she did not tell the truth, adding that even if Cheadle didn't personally issue the denials, the incident exposed a, quote, culture of COVID up inside the agency. Now then again, Cheadle, as you may remember, was the clear eyed security professional who described the slope of the roof that that wasn't covered as being too steep or too slopey or too dangerous to stand on. I forget the exact words. Her performance testifying to Congress stands to this day as the finest of case studies for failed leadership and how not to behave when testifying to Congress. Senator Paul added, quote, when we talk to people in charge of security, everybody pointed the finger at someone else, making clear the security failure was not a single lapse in judgment, but rather a complete breakdown of security at every level. Notably, no one has been fired since the shooting. Well, it is Washington, D.C. only six agents were suspended, a detail the committee only obtained after issuing a subpoena to the agency. Cheadle, of course, resigned from her post last July. The findings, while not surprising in any way to security professionals, or, frankly, even to the average person watching the Butler rally in real time on that day, suggests that what happened to Butler wasn't a product of bad luck or a lone gunman slipping through the cracks. Even though the cracks were extremely wide. It was the result of a cavalcade of errors, poor preparation, a failure to communicate, unclear leadership and reporting lines, complacency, and a deadly lack of attention to detail. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 15th July. Now, if you haven't already taken a minute or two out of your busy day to check out our YouTube channel, well, please give it a go. You can find it at President's Daily Brief. It's what the kids refer to today as sick. Or maybe they say it's all that in a bag of chips. Could be sus. Maybe that's what I'm looking for. Honestly, I have a hard time keeping up with with the latest slang. Regardless, check it out and subscribe if you get the chance. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.